Mark Blumenthal | November 29, 2004
Topics: Exit Polls
Since the election, I have written quite a bit on exit polls. Although I have learned a lot in that process, my Election Day summary of “what you need to know” about exit polls still holds up well and is a good place to start if you are new to this site.
Here is the complete list of questions:
- What is the difference between "partial" and "final" exit polls? Covers which tabulations were "corrected" to match the actual count and which were not.
- Where can I find the "uncorrected," just-before-poll closing exit poll tabulations?
- Where can I find official methodological information about exit polls?
- What is the margin of error for exit polls?
- Were the exit polls really "wrong?"
- Why were exit polls in Germany & Utah so accurate?
- Have the exit polls been wrong before?
- If not random error, why were they "wrong?"
- So if exit polls have so much error, why do them?
- I heard the exit poll estimates for Hispanic voters have been revised -- is that true?
- What is MP's reaction to the paper, "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy," by Steven Freeman? (This post dicusses his first draft at length, this post has Freeman's response).