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February 25, 2007 - March 3, 2007

 

March 2, 2007

POLL: Public Mind Delaware/Biden Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind Poll (release, results) of 618 registered voters in Delaware (conducted 2/20 through 2/25) finds:

  • 35% of registered voters in Delaware approve of the job Bush is doing as president; 58% disapprove.
  • 60% have a favorable opinion of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, while 47% do not think he would make a good president.
  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Biden (34% to 21%) in a Delaware primary; Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards trail with 19% and 10% respectively.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 2, 2007 1:05 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Fox News Poll Makes It Three

By Mark Blumenthal

And then there were three. A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey of 900 registered voters nationwide (2008 presidential match-ups article, results,Bush/Iraq/Iran article, results) shows, among other things, the same tightening race for President as two other recent national surveys. Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (34% to 23%) followed by former Vice President Al Gore (14%) and former Sen. John Edwards (12%) in a national primary. The Fox survey shows the same narrowing of the Clinton's lead as the surveys by Time and ABC News/Washington Post tied to a much closer contest among African-American voters. The Fox story puts it succinctly:

The nomination race has tightened among the Democratic contenders. In the last month Clinton has slipped 9 percentage points and Obama has gained 8 points. The reason for the shift is tied to Obama's dramatically improved standing among black voters - narrowing Clinton's previous edge of 30 points to 11 points today.

So let's step back and consider what recent national surveys tell us about candidate preference among African-American Democrats. In January, surveys showed Clinton leading Obama among black Democrats by 24 points (CBS News), 30 points (Fox News) and by 40 points (ABC News/Washington Post), combining December and January samples). In the last two weeks, surveys have shown Obama either leading among African Americans by 11 points (ABC/Post), by 9 points (Zogby), trailing by 11 points (Fox News), or splitting "about evenly" (Time).

Any one of these sub-samples is relatively small, and thus subject to more random error than a full survey. The comparisons above are also not entirely "apples-to-apples," but the results are largely consistent: The race has between Clinton and Obama among African-Americans has tightened considerably over the last month.

Also, as noted yesterday, both the ABC/News Washington Post and Time surveys indicate a big jump in Obama's recognition and favorability over the last month, presumably as a result of the continuing media focus on the race. I'm speculating, of course, but the irony may be that the recent spate of "is-he-black-enough" stories had the effect, not only of further raising Obama's profile, but also clarifying his heritage (African American, not Muslim) and thus helping to produce a tighter race among black voters.

**In their original January release (as cited by my blog post), ABC News reported Clinton leading Obama by 26 points (53% to 27%) over among African Americans interviewed in December and January. According to an email I received yesterday from Washington Post polling director Jon Cohen, "the original ABC numbers were incorrect, they've updated their analysis to the correct 60-20."

By Mark Blumenthal on March 2, 2007 12:06 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Gallup Mormonism

By Eric Dienstfrey

Additional analysis from a recent Gallup national survey of 1018 adults (conducted 2/22 through 2/25) finds:

  • 56% of catholics have a favorable opinion of Mormonism; 36% of protestants have a favorable opinion.
  • 48% of political moderates have a favorable opinion of Mormonism followed closely by conservatives with 44%. 28% of liberals have a favorable opinion of Mormonism; 61% have an unfavorable opinion.
  • In an open ended question, an 18% plurality said poygamy is the first thing that comes to mind when they think about the Mormon church.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 2, 2007 10:51 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: SurveyUSA Cincinnati Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 857 registered voters in Cincinnati (conducted 2/28) finds:

  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 29%) runs slightly ahead of Sen. Barack Obama (23%) in a Cincinnati primary; former Sen. John Edwards follows at 19%.
  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John MCCain (42% to 24%) in a Cincinnati primary.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 2, 2007 10:50 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen Richardson vs. (2/27)

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 800 likely voters (conducted 2/26 through 2/27) finds Gov. Bill Richardson trailing both former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (35% to 52%) and Sen. John McCain (36% to 45%) in general election match-ups for president.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 2, 2007 10:49 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

March 1, 2007

POLL: CBS/NYT National Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new CBS News/New York Times national survey (CBS story, results; NYT story, results) of 1281 adults (conducted 2/23 through 2/27) finds:

  • 29% approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 61% disapprove.
  • 54% say "fundamental changes are needed" to the health care system, 36% say "we need to completely rebuild it," and 8% say "only minor changes are necessary to make it work better."
  • 57% are dissatisfied with the quality of health care in this country, while 77% are satisfied with the quality of health care they receive.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 1, 2007 10:02 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

New Time Poll Confirms Post/ABC

By Mark Blumenthal

Time has a new national survey out today (article, SRBI release & results) that includes 2008 primary match-ups for both the Democrats and Republicans. It shows Rudy Giuliani's widening his lead over John McCain and the rest of the Republican field, while Hilary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama and other Democrats shrinks. These overall results are remarkably similar to those reported in the poll released yesterday by The Washington Post and ABC News.

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Also, the Time survey appears to confirm the result from yesterday's Post/ABC release showing a much tighter Democratic race among African Americans. Although the SRBI release provides not specific results (nor comparable numbers from their previous poll), it states that "blacks split about evenly between Clinton and Obama."

Keep in mind that surveys conducted by the Washington Post/ABC News and CBS News in December or January showed Clinton leading Obama by roughly two-to-one among African-Americans. Now we have three polls conducted over the last 10 days (including a Zogby survey noted by Pollster readers yesterday) that show a much closer contest among African-American Democrats.

Like the Post/ABC survey, Time also picked up a large increase in awareness of Barack Obama among all adults in just the last month:

Barack Obama is becoming more visible to voters as seen in the +14 increase in those who say they know "a great deal" or "some" about him since late January (51% in late Jan. vs. 65% in late Feb.)

Similarly, the Post/ABC survey showed a nine point increase over the last month in the percentage of adults who could rate Obama (rising from 74% to 83%), with virtually all of that increase coming in his favorable rating (up from 45% to 53%).

By Mark Blumenthal on March 1, 2007 4:55 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Quinnipiac New Jersey Primary, General Election

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Quinnipiac Univeristy statewide survey of 1302 New Jersey voters including 454 Democrats and 405 Republicans (conducted 2/20 through 2/25) finds:

  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 41%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (at 19%) and former Vice President Al Gore (10%) in a Democratic primary.
  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain (58% to 15%) in a Republican primary.
  • Giuliani leads both Clinton (50% to 41%) and Obama (50% to 39%) in general election match-ups. Similar match-ups pitting Clinton against McCain (45% to 45%) and Obama against McCain (45% to 41%) are both within the margin of sampling error.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 1, 2007 12:09 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Gallup Electability

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Gallup national survey (Dem analysis, GOP analysis,