Pollster.com

March 11, 2007 - March 17, 2007

 

POLL: Rasmussen Gonzales Favorables


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 800 likely voters (conducted 3/14 through 3/15) finds 49% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales; 32% have a favorable opinion.


Bush Approval: 3 new polls, trend up to 34.9%

Topics: George Bush

1BushApproval2ndTerm20070314.png

Despite a bad week of Washington news for the administration, President Bush's approval ratings have continued to move modestly upwards over the past week. New polls from Gallup (3/11-14/07, 35% approve/61% disapprove), Zogby (3/7-9/06, 35%/65%) and Bloomberg (3/3-11/07, 38%/60%) all find approval slightly above my previous trend estimate. The result is a small increase in the approval estimate to 34.9%.

See this post for a full explanation of the graphs here.

Note that the recent Bloomberg poll is by Bloomberg alone, not jointly with their usual polling partner, the Los Angeles Times.

2LastSixPolls20070314.png

None of the residuals is particularly noteworthy. The low Zogby poll is a previous result, not the most recent which is very close to the trend estimate (and overprinted as a result.)

3BushResiduals20070314.png

The variability of the approval estimate remains within the range of recent estimates.

4BootApproval20070314.png

5Sentitivity2ndTerm20070314.png

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.


POLL: TIME National Survey


A new Time/SRBI national survey (story, analysis, results) of 1,918 adults (conducted 3/9 through 3/12) finds:

  • 32% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 61% disapprove
  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 30% to 23% 34% to 26% in a national primary; Gore trails at 13% and Edwards trails at 9% 10%. In a three-way match-up, Clinton runs at 37% 42%, Obama at 28% 31%, and Edwards at 15% 17%.
  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 40%) leads Sen. John McCain (20%), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (10%), and former Gov. Mitt Romney (7%) in a national primary. In a four-way match-up, Giuliani runs at 43%, McCain at 24%, Gingrich at 13%, and Romney at 9%.
  • Various general election match-ups pitting either Giuliani or McCain against either Obama or Clinton all show margins that fall within sampling error.

UPDATE: Numbers corrected.


POLL: Zogby Presidential "Never Vote For"s


A new Zogby telephone survey of 1,028 likely voters nationwide (conducted 3/7 through 3/9) finds 53% of Americans would never vote for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich for president; 46% say the same for Sen. Hillary Clinton.


POLL: Gallup Libby Pardon


A new Gallup national survey of 1,009 adults (conducted 3/11 through 3/14) finds:

  • 34% of Americans approve of the job Cheney is doing as vice president; 56% disapprove.
  • 67% think Bush should not pardon Lewis "Scooter" Libby; 21% think Bush should.


POLL: Rasmussen Giuliani vs. Edwards


Additional results from a recent Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 800 likely voters nationwide (conducted 3/12 through 3/13) finds former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading former Sen. John Edwards (48% to 41%) in a national general election match-up.


POLL: Franklin Pierce College/WBZ New Hampshire GOP Primary


A new Franklin Pierce College/WBZ-TV statewide survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 3/7 through 3/12) finds:

  • Sen. John McCain and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani each receive favorable ratings from more than 75% of New Hampshire Republicans.
  • In a statewide presidential primary, McCain runs at 29%, Giuliani at 28%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 22%, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5%.


Rothenberg on "Push Polls"

Topics: Push "Polls"

I have a Google News search for the term "push poll" which reliably produces items almost every day. More often than not, news items use the term -- inappropriately -- to describe a poll, or poll question, that someone finds objectionable or biased. I have written about the subject often (most recently here, here, here and here), but I have to concede that Roll Call columnist and political commentator Stu Rothernberg has created a simple, concise review that ought to be required reading for any reporter, editor or blogger before using the phrase "push poll" in a story.

To Rothenberg, it all boils down to the difference between legitimate research and "advocacy calls:"

Polls are methodologically rigorous public opinion surveys of generally 500 to 1,000 people intended to learn about and measure voters' opinions and test possible campaign messages. Advocacy telephone calls, on the other hand, are made to tens of thousands of people and are intended to create or change opinion...

[snip]

As I have argued every year for the past five and apparently will have to continue doing until I have taken my last breath, push polls are really advocacy calls aimed at thousands of recipients. They are like television or radio ads, except they are delivered over the telephone. They seek to convey positive or negative information to influence a voter's final vote decision.

Advocacy calls are not, in any shape or form, public opinion surveys.

Amen. But the hard part are those polls that seem to fall somewhere in between. More often than not, Rothenberg notes, complaints about "push polls" result from internal campaign surveys "that include very negative information about a candidate for office." Here, he puts it plainly:

This kind of information can be part of an advocacy telephone call or part of a legitimate poll. When they are in a real survey, they are known as "push questions," because they seek to measure which questions actually push voter sentiment and which issues can be used by a candidate to win a race.

Push questions are not the same thing as push polls. Push questions, which are included in a survey of only 500 to 1,000 respondents, are a legitimate part of a public opinion poll that seeks to test effective messages.

You may not agree that "push questions" are legitimate or ethical. Their content may be simply objectionable (depending on your politics) or flatly untrue. True or not, such questions may anger respondents and the they may produce deceptive results (if presented out of context). However, it is important to distinguish between untrue or deceptive questions in the context of a legitimate attempt to measure opinion and the sort of dirty trick fraud that aims to broadly communicate a message under the guise of legitimate research.


POLL: Rasmussen Giuliani vs. Clinton


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 800 likely voters nationwide (conducted 3/12 through 3/13) finds former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading Sen. Hillary Clinton 49% to 41% in a national general election match-up.


POLL: Strategic Vision (R) MI & FL Primaries


Two new Strategic Vision (R) statewide surveys of 1200 likely voters in both Michigan and Florida (conducted 3/9 through 3/11) finds:

  • Among Republicans in Michigan, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani receives 28%, Sen. John McCain 24%, and former Gov. Mitt Romney 14% in a statewide primary. Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton recieves 33%, Sen. Barack Obama 28%, and former Sen. John Edwards 14%.
  • Among Republicans in Florida, Giuliani leads McCain 36% to 21% in a statewide primary. Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 32% to 22%, while Edwards trails with 17% of the vote.


POLL: CNN Dem Primary/Approvals


Additional results from a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey of 1,027 adults (conducted 3/9 through 3/11) finds:

  • Among 447 registered Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 37%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (22%), former V.P. Al Gore (14%) and former Sen. John Edwards (12%) in a national Democratic primary.
  • Without Gore running, Clinton leads Obama 44% to 23%; Edwards trails with 14%.
  • 50% of all adults have a favorable opinion of Gore, 49% of Clinton, 44% of Obama, and 42% of Edwards.


Primary Polling Primer II: More on Turnout

Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race

Continuing with my Presidential Primary Polling Primer, I know I promised in the first installment to talk next about issues of timing, but before moving on, a few more points about national primary turnout are in order. I want to consider below both total turnout and the somewhat unique approach of the CBS/New York Times surveys.

My 2004 turnout summary was based on participation in the Democratic primaries only because George W. Bush was essentially unopposed that year. According to data collected by Rhodes Cook (shared via email), Bush had the primary ballot to himself in eleven states and faced token opposition in sixteen more. Because there was no contest, the number of states holding Republican presidential primaries fell from 43 to 27.

So a better way to consider the turnout picture is too take the longer view. Cook's text, The Presidential Nominating Process, includes a table (p. 49) that provides total national turnout in primary elections going back to 1912. The table below shows turnout in the "primary era" (since 1972), and includes numbers for 2004 that he kindly provided via email.**

03-14%20primary%20turnout.png

The total Turnout in 2004 as a percentage of the general election vote for president declined from 29.6% to 19.7% for two reasons. First, again, Republicans lacked a contest (note the similar pattern in 1984). Second, the general election turnout increased. According to Michael McDonald's data archive, presidential turnout as a percentage of eligible voters increased from 54.2% in 2000 to 60.3% in 2004.

But taking the longer view, it is clear that the total primary state turnout is likely to be, at best, 35% to 40% of those who will ultimately cast ballots in the November 2008, or at best, roughly 20% to 25% of those who will be eligible to vote in 2008.

Now consider again the way national media pollsters typically report presidential primary vote preference. Many are simply ask the primary vote questions of those who identify with or lean to the Democratic or Republican parties, a "screen" that captures roughly 90% of all adults. Some also screen out the roughly 20% who will tell pollsters they are not registered to vote. So the results for Democratic and Republican primary preference are typically based on roughly 70% to 90% of all adults, when only about 20% to 25% of adults are likely to participate in presidential primaries or caucuses.***

The CBS/New York Times poll does it a bit differently, and their approach is worth focusing on. Unlike the other national media pollsters, they first ask a question about past primary voting:

Next year, are you more likely to vote in a Democratic presidential primary or caucus, or a Republican primary or caucus or aren't you likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all?

They then ask the primary vote preference questions among registered voters who say they are likely to vote in the appropriate party primary or caucus. The weighted interview counts provided in the latest CBS release indicate that 63% of their adult sample qualified as registered voters likely to participate in either the Democratic (38%) or Republican (26%) primaries. That still amounts a significant over-reporting of likely turnout (a common challenge that pollsters face), but it gets us a lot closer to the population of interest: the voters who will actually chose the delegates that select each party's nominees. The tabulation of the voting question by party in the most recent survey (see q46, p. 20) shows that it excludes roughly half of independents and 20% to 25% of partisans. That's a start, at least.

So one bit of intrigue for poll consumers will be to watch whether the CBS/NYT results start to diverge from other national polls. If so, I will put more faith in the CBS/NYT results than those who simply report on the 90% of adults who lean to one party or another.

Ok, so next, on to primary timing and how that effects the polling puzzle...

**The primary vote totals do not include caucus state participation nor the votes cast in two party-run primaries in Michigan and New Mexico.

***For the Democrats, the total participation in the 14 caucus states in 2004 amounted to just 4% of the total primary and caucus turnout. Including the caucus participants would boost turnout as a percentage point of the general election vote by less than a single percentage point.

Series continues here


POLL: Franklin Pierce College/WBZ New Hampshire Democratic Primary


A new Franklin Pierce College/WBZ statewide survey (story, results) of 401 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 3/7 through 3/11) finds:

  • Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 32%) runs within the margin of sampling error of Sen. Barack Obama (25%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards and former V.P. Al Gore trail with 16% and 10% respectively.
  • Without Gore running, Clinton would get 35%, Obama would get 26%, and Edwards would get 18%.
  • More than 70% of likely New Hampshire primary voters have favorable opinions of Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Gore.


POLL: Quinnipiac NYC Survey


A new Quinnipiac University survey of 1,261 registered voters in New York City (conducted 3/6 through 3/12) finds:

  • 73% of NYC voters approve of the way Mayor Michael Bloomberg is handling his job; 19% disapprove.
  • 46% think Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been a better mayor than former Mayor Rudy Giuliani; 16% think he's been worse; 34% think they are about the same.
  • 46% think Bloomberg would make a better president than Giuliani; 31% think Giuliani would be better.


POLL: Rasmussen Romney vs.


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 800 likely voters nationwide (conducted 2/7 through 2/8) finds former Gov. Mitt Romney trailing both Sen. Hillary Clinton (41% to 50%) and Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 51%) in nationwide general election match-ups.


POLL: Zogby Bush Approval


A new Zogby telephone poll of 1,028 likely voters nationwide (conducted 3/7 through 3/9) finds 35% of Americans approving of the job Bush is doing as president; 65% disapprove.


Giuliani-McCain Margin Narrowing?

Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race

Our friends over at the Hotline OnCall looked at the results of the latest CBS/NY Times survey and raised intriguing possibility:

Either early polls are fickle or Sen. John McCain is improving his standing vis-a-vis Rudy Giuliani, or both.

In the latest New York Times poll, Giuliani leads McCain by nine points, 43% to 34%. Last month, Giuliani led 50% to 29%.

Both the February and March surveys involved a hypothetical two-way match-up between Giuliani and McCain (Q49), and the decline in Giuliani's support appears to be just barely statistically significant. For those wondering (as I did), surveys interviewed 314 registered Republicans voters who say they are likely to vote in Republican primary in February and 603 in March (the most recent survey involved an oversample of Republicans; unweighted counts are at the end of the CBS releases here and here).

Given the sample sizes, the seven point drop for Giuliani (from 50% to 43%) is just barely statistically significant at a 95% confidence level, although the five point increase for McCain (29% to 34%) is not.

However, there are some very good reasons for caution here. First, when I say "barely" I mean the Giuliani decline would not be significant if we needed to be 96% confident. And the precision of my calculation requires a statistical assumption (simple random sampling) that is iffy when pollsters weight their data (as this and virtually all other public polls do).

Next, remember that four other surveys conducted over the last 10 days - including the just released CNN/ORC survey - show no comparable Giuliani decline. In fact, while the changes on any individual poll may have been within sampling error, all four show a slightly larger Giuliani lead (see also the trend in evidence on our Presidential tracking chart).

3-13%20mccain%20and%20giuliani.png

Keep in mind, of course, that the CBS/NYT survey involved a hypothetical two-way Giuliani-McCain match-up, while the others asked respondents to choose among all of the likely Republican candidates. Notice that the CBS/NYT results are better for both Giuliani and McCain - the perfectly logical result of offering just two choices rather than roughly ten. Perhaps the Giuliani decline occurred mostly among those who only opted for Giuliani (in February) because their first choice was not an option.

Consider finally the issue of the "oversample" of Republicans on the most recent survey interviewed by redialing households "at which a self-identified Republican had been interviewed in [CBS/NYT] polls over the last seven months." Of course, the pollsters can compare the oversample to Republicans in the base sample to see if the former was more hostile to Giuliani. In response to my email query, CBS Survey Director Kathleen Frankovic confirms that she saw "no indication that the oversample was hostile to Giuliani."

When it comes to methodology, the CBS/New York Times surveys are top notch. But yes, early or late, even the best polls can produce "fickle" results. So given all of the above, readers should be cautious about making too much of the observed Giuliani decline until confirmed elsewhere.

UPDATE (3/14): Another possibility to consider is that CBS chooses it's likely primary voters a bit differently than the other national polls. For one, they actually attempt to identify likely primary voters, something not done by the other national polls (as far as I know). See this post today for more details. If the CBS/NYT poll is looking at a narrower population than other polls, they may be picking up emerging trends among true primary voters more readily.


Is Bush the New Truman?

Topics: George Bush

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One of the most frequent searches of PoliticalArithmetik is some variation on how low can approval of President Bush go. President Truman holds the all time low record, at 22%, and the comparison of Bush to Truman comes up a lot. So let's take a look at second term presidents who had generally low approval ratings. (That leaves out Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton, plus the ones who never got a second term.)

It turns out the Bush-Truman comparison is a pretty good one in terms of both trends and levels of approval. Truman's bounces are similar to those of Bush and the current level of approval and its trend are quite close. In comparison, Johnson did better throughout his war, while Nixon sank lower and quicker as Watergate came to dominate public perceptions.

This doesn't mean that Bush will necessarily challenge Truman's lows, however. Throughout his presidency, Bush has maintained a considerably greater loyalty among Republicans than Truman did among Democrats. I wrote about this earlier here. At his low point, Truman was supported by less than half of all Democrats. Bush has never fallen below 70% approval among Republicans in Gallup polls. (He has been lower in other organization's polling, though not by a lot.) His support among Republicans in Gallup polls taken since January 1, 2007 are in order 79, 71, 76, 78, 76, and 70, for an average of 75.0%. By comparison, in the same period of 2005 Republican approval was consistently in the low 90s, averaging 91.1%. For the same period in 2006 it was mostly in the 80s, averaging 82.1%. So while Republican support has eroded significantly in the last two years, it remains well above Truman's lows among Democrats.

I don't think current trends alone are good predictors of future approval. Circumstances, events and presidential behavior drive approval, not a blind trend. So things could move up or down depending. But that said the comparison of Bush and Truman's approval trajectories is striking.

(Thanks to Phil Klinkner for provoking me to look at this.)

P.S. Some argue that being the "new Truman" is a good thing-- that history will judge President Bush much more favorably than do his contemporaries, just as has happened with Truman. I have no view on this aspect of Bush as the New Truman. I'm only concerned with the approval ratings here.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.


POLL: CNN National Survey


A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey (story, results) of 1,027 adults (conducted 3/9 through 3/11) finds:

  • 37% of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president; 56% disapprove. (See our Bush approval trend estimates here.)
  • 52% think Cheney was part of a cover-up to prevent the special prosecutor from knowing who leaked Valerie Plame's name to the media; 69% think Bush should not pardon "Scooter" Libby.
  • 58% think the U.S. should withdraw all its troop from Iraq within a year or sooner; 39% say troops should stay "as long as is needed."
  • Among 401 registered Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain (34% to 18%) in a nationwide Republican primary.


Bush Approval: 4 New Polls, Trend up to 34.7%

Topics: George Bush

1BushApproval2ndTerm20070311.png

Four new polls have come in since Friday, lifting President Bush's approval trend estimate to 34.7%, from last week's 33.4%. The new polls are AP/Ipsos (3/5-7/07, 35% Approve/65% Disapprove), CBS/New York Times (3/7-11/07, 34%/58%), CNN/ORC (3/9-11/07, 37%/57%) and LATimes/Bloomberg (3/3-11/07, 38% Approval, the disapprove rate has not yet been released.) With four polls all coming in above the previous trend estimate, the evidence favors an increased approval rate over last week. However, there remains quite a bit of noise in the estimates.

The new CBS polls shows approval of President Bush from Republicans rising substantially since January, when it was 63% to 65% in February and 75% in the latest poll. One advantage of a Democratic Congress for the President is it gives his partisans an opponent to blame, and may as a result help improve the President's support among Republicans. We'll have to look into this a bit more systematically.

For a full description of these graphs, please see this earlier post.

The last six polls appear below.

2LastSixPolls20070311.png

With the new estimate of approval, all four new polls (and indeed, all of the last six) are pretty close to the estimated trend. This at least means that no single outlier is unduly influencing the current estimate.

The residuals, deviations around the trend, are shown below. (Note that the CBS/NYT poll that appears outside the lower 95% confidence limit is an older poll from 2/23-27/07, not the latest one. That one has been inside the confidence interval until recent polling revised the trend up a bit. This kind of dynamic is common until more than a dozen or so polls are available after any single date.)

3BushResiduals20070311.png

To assess the variability of the trend estimator, I run 20,000 bootstrap samples of the approval series, and estimate the trend 20,000 times. The gray region below shows all these samples, while the blue line is the current estimate.

4BootApproval20070311.png

It is worth noticing that the spread of estimates over the past two or three months has been a bit wider than earlier parts of the series. In part this reflects an intrinsically greater uncertainty of the estimate at the end of the series. However, it also seems that the approval polling since the November election has also been a bit more variable than in most of 2005-06. Whether this reflects a plateau in approval with more randomness around a roughly stable mean, or if the shift to a Democratic congress has allowed for more variability is an interesting question.

Finally, we can take out each of the last 20 estimates and see how sensitive the trend has been to these polls.

5Sentitivity2ndTerm20070311.png

There has been quite a bit of variability, foretold by the bootstrap results, over a range of about 5 points for the trend estimator. That's a lot less than the range of polls, as you can see dramatically in the figure but still shows that the trend estimate is itself subject to uncertainty.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.


ANALYSIS: Gallup Candidate Preference


Additional analysis from two recent Gallup national surveys (analysis, video) of 2,000 interviews (conducted 2/9 through 2/11 and 3/2 through 2/4) finds:

  • 84% of Americans are "completely comfortable" voting for a black candidate; 77% feel the same toward a female candidate.
  • 6% of Republicans would not vote for a thrice-married candidate, 25% for a Mormon candidate, and 29% for a 72-year-old candidate.


POLL: Rasmussen 2008 Surveys


Two new Rasmussen Reports automated surveys find:

  • Among 598 likely Republican primary voters nationwide, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain by 21 points (37% to 16%); former House Speaker Newt Gingrich receives 11% and former Gov. Mitt Romney receives 10% (conducted 3/5 through 3/8).
  • Among 500 likely voters in Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken 46% to 36% in a statewide senate election (conducted 3/7).


POLL: CBS/NYT National Survey


A new CBS News/New York Times national survey (CBS Iraq story, results; 2008 story, GOP results; Dem results; NYT story, results) of 1,362 adults (conducted 3/7 through 3/11) finds:

  • 34% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president; 58% disapprove.
  • 76% think the Bush Administration has not done enough for Iraq war vets; 17% think it has.
  • 58% of registered Democratic primary voters who think Sen. Hillary Clinton's 2002 vote on Iraq was a mistake do not think Clinton should publicly say it was a mistake.
  • 40% of registered Republican primary voters are satisfied with the candidates running for the Republican nomination; 57% want more choices. Among Democrats, 57% are satisfied and 39% want more choices.


Going to Motive


The Washington Post's Shankar Vedantam reports today on some interesting academic research that empirically demonstrates something that should be evident to those who spend time reading blogs. Those on the opposite sides of political disagreements question each others motives reflexively:

A wide body of psychological research shows that on any number of hot-button issues, people seem hard-wired to believe the worst about those who disagree with them. Most people can see the humor in such behavior when it doesn't involve things they care about: If you don't care about sports, for example, you roll your eyes when fans of one team question the principles and parentage of fans of a rival team.

Vedantam goes on to cite findings from Glenn D. Reeder, an Illinois State University social psychologist that looked at this phenomenon in the context of the Iraq War:

When Reeder and his colleagues asked pro-war and antiwar Americans how they would describe the other side's motives, the researchers found that the groups suffered from an identical bias: People described others who agreed with them as motivated by ethics and principle, but felt that the people who disagreed with them were motivated by narrow self-interest.

The column has more, including data on perceptions of George Bush - well worth the click.

NOTE: Vedantam's column provides no specifics about how the Reeder, et. al. studies sampled "pro-war" and "anti-war" Americans, except for a citation that appears to be to this article (subscription only) in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. I lack electronic access, so if any Pollster readers have a moment to check and share relevant details, I'd be grateful.

UPDATE (3/13): Professor Reeder kindly sent a copy of the journal article that I linked to above.  It reports on results of four individual studies, each involving relatively small samples of college students (ranging in size from 80 to 165 interviews).  Three of the studies involved students at an unnamed Midwestern university, one involved students in Canada.  The observed differences reported in Vedantam's column were statistically significant.  However, the student subjects studied -- while a mix of Democrats, Republicans and independents  -- certainly did not constitute a representative sample of all Americans. 

None of the above implies any criticism of Reeder and his colleagues.  Experimental studies of involving student subjects are common to the academic literature, and these studies were intended primarily to look for differences between Iraq war supporters and opponents, not to project the views of the general population.  The journal article also fully discloses the relevant methodological details.  Reeder also points out, in his email, that another unpublished study conducted using a representative national sample replicated his findings regarding "attitudes issues of gay marriage and abortion." 

However, it would have been easy for casual readers to assume that Vedantam was citing a projective sample of all Americans.  He described the subjects as "pro-war and antiwar Americans" without providing more specifics, other than one ambiguous reference to "volunteers."  A friendly suggestion to Vedantam and his editors:  The column would have been better had it included one line noting that the Reeder, et. al. studies were experiments involving college student volunteers that should not be considered a representative national sample of all Americans. 


POLL: Rasmussen Democratic Primary


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 783 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide (conducted 3/5 through 3/8) finds Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 38%) leading both Sen. Barack Obama (26%) and former Sen. John Edwards (15%).


POLL: Gallup Global Warming Analysis


Additional analysis from a recent Gallup national survey (analysis, video) of 1,018 adults (conducted 2/22 through 2/25) finds:

  • More than 60% of Americans are very or somewhat worried that hurricanes will become more powerful and tropical diseases will become more prevalent as a result of global warming.
  • 75% of Democrats, 34% of Republicans, and 59% of independents worry about global warming risks.


POLL: Research 2000 Nevada Caucus and General Election


A new Research 2000 statewide caucus of 600 registered voters in Nevada, including over samples of 400 likely Democratic caucus goers and 400 likely Republican caucus goers for a margin of error of plus or minus 5 for each (conducted 3/6 through 3/8) finds:

  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 32% to 20%; former Sen. John Edwards and former V.P. Al Gore tie at 11% each.
  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 38%) leads Sen. John McCain (18%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (13%).
  • In general election match-ups, Giuliani leads Clinton by 8 points (46% to 38%); other two-way match-ups pitting McCain and Giuliani against Obama, Clinton, Gore and Edwards are all within the margin of sampling error.


 

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR