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March 25, 2007 - March 31, 2007

 

March 30, 2007

POLL: Fox National Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics national survey (story, results) of 900 registered voters (conducted 3/27 through 3/28) finds:

  • 33% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president: 61% disapprove, "the highest disapproval rating of his presidency."
  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 36%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (18%), former V.P. Al Gore (14%), and former Sen. John Edwards (13%) in a national primary. In a two-way match-up, Clinton leads Obama 52% to 32%.
  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 36%) leads Sen. John McCain (20%), former Sen. Fred Thompson (9%), former Speaker Newt Gingrich, and former Gov. Mitt Romney (both at 6%). In a two-way match-up, Giuliani leads McCain 50% to 37%.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 30, 2007 10:36 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

March 29, 2007

POLL: SurveyUSA Senate Approvals

By Eric Dienstfrey

New SurveyUSA statewide surveys of 600 adults each in Alabama, California, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, New York State, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin (conducted 3/9 through 3/11) test job approval ratings for 32 Senators.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 6:04 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Time National Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Time/SRBI national survey (Time story; SRBI 2008 analysis, Gonzales analysis, results) of 1,264 adults (conducted 3/23 through 3/26) finds:

  • 33% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president; 60% disapprove.
  • Among 407 Republicans asked to choose between four candidates, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs at 35%, Sen. John McCain at 28%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14%, and former Gov. Mitt Romney at 12% in a national primary.
  • Among 511 Democrats asked to choose between three candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 38%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (30%) and former Sen. John Edwards (26%) in national primary.
  • 46% of Americans would probably or definitely support Clinton in a presidential election; 51% would not. 50% would support Giuliani; 41% would not.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 3:28 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Pew 2008, Veterans

By Eric Dienstfrey

Additional results from a recent Pew Research Center national survey (analysis, results) of 1,503 adults (conducted 3/21 through 3/25) finds:

  • Pew asked 1,246 registered voters -- both Democrats and Republicans -- to choose from a list of eight Democratic candidates. Of these, 39% would like to see Sen. Hillary Clinton receive the Democratic nomination; 38% say Barack Obama. From a list of nine Republican candidates, 43% of all registered voters would like to see former Mayor Rudy Giuliani receive the Republican nomination; 40% say Sen. John McCain.
  • 72% of Americans do not think the government gives enough support to soldiers who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan; 21% think it does.
  • 57% think "the incidents at Walter Reed Army Hospital" represent a common problem with the quality of care given to returning soldiers; 18% think the incidents were unusual.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 2:44 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Zogby Iowa & National Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

Two new Zogby telephone surveys (conducted 3/26 in Iowa and 3/22 through 3/26 nationwide) find:

  • Among 404 likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs at 25%, Sen. John McCain at 19%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 11%, and former Sen. Fred Thompson at 7%. Among 376 Republicans nationwide, Giuliani (at 27%) leads McCain (13%), Thompson (9%) and Romney (9%).
  • Among 506 likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, former Sen. John Edwards runs at 27%, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 25%, and Sen. Barack Obama at 23%. Among 432 Democrats nationwide, Clinton (at 32%) leads Obama (22%) and Edwards (13%).

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 1:50 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Care Tracking Poll

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll, "the first in a new series on the public's views of health reform and the presidential candidates' positions on health care," of 1,233 adults nationwide (conducted 3/8 through 3/13) finds:

  • Of both Republican and Democratic candidates, 14% of respondents say Sen. Hillary Clinton best represents their own views on health care; 5% say Sen. Barack Obama; 3% say former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. 60% were unsure or could not name a candidate.
  • 52% want a new health care plan with a "major effort to provide health insureance" for nearly all uninsured with a substantial increase in spending; 24% want one that is "more limited and would cover only some groups of the uninsured" with less spending.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 11:53 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Quinnipiac University statewide survey (2008 results, Issues results) of 1,187 registered voters in Pennsylvania (conducted 3/19 through 3/25) finds:

  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (36%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (17%), former V.P. Al Gore (13%), and former Sen. John Edwards (9%) in a Democratic primary. If Gore does not run, Clinton runs at 38%, Obama at 24%, and Edwards at 16%.
  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 33%) leads both Sen. John McCain (18%) and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (7%) in a Republican primary.
  • In general election match-ups, Giuliani leads Obama (46% to 39%), but edges out Clinton (46% to 42%) by a difference within the margin of sampling error.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 11:04 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: ARG New Hampshire Senate

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new American Research Group statewide survey of 551 registered voters in New Hampshire (conducted 3/25 through 3/28) finds.

  • 17% of voters in New Hampshire approve of the job Bush is doing as president; 62% disapprove.
  • Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen leads Sen. John Sununu (44% to 34%) in a hypothetical senatorial match-up.

By Eric Dienstfrey on March 29, 2007 11:02 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

March 28, 2007

Harris Interactive's Poll on Clinton

By Mark Blumenthal

Harris Interactive released a new survey yesterday, based on over 2,000 interviews conducted online that focuses on the candidacy of Hillary Clinton and suggests she faces a big challenge should she win the Democratic nomination:

[H]alf of U.S. adults say they would not vote for Senator Clinton if she was the Democratic candidate, while only 36 percent say they would, with 11 percent unsure.

Some will question the Harris survey results, as they are based on a non-probability sample drawn from its online panel of volunteer survey respondents. I must admit that my first thought was to wonder whether their online panel might include a disproportionate number of "net roots" Democrats who - as we know from some research I helped conduct last year - tend to be more hostile to the Clinton candidacy. However, on closer examination, the Harris result appears to be at least not wildly inconsistent with similar measures on other recent national polls.

Here are the text and complete results of the question that produced the lead of the Harris release:

If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee for President, which is closest to the way you think?
15% - I definitely would vote for, her
22% - I probably would vote for her
11% - I probably would not vote for her
39% - I definitely would not vote for her
11% - I wouldn't vote at all

Now consider the results of similar questions asked on two recent national polls:

Pew Research Center (1,509 adults, February 7-11, 2007) - Have you heard of Hillary Clinton, or not? (IF HAVE HEARD, ASK:) How much of a chance is there that you would vote for Hillary Clinton if she is a candidate for president in 2008 - is there a good chance, some chance, or no chance?
98% (1,408 adults) had heard of Hillary Clinton
Among those respondents:
32% good chance
24% some chance
40% no chance
4% (volunteered: don't know/refused)

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (900 registered voters, February 13-14, 2007) - Now I am going to read a list of possible candidates