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April 8, 2007 - April 14, 2007

 

April 13, 2007

Tax Season Round-Up

By Eric Dienstfrey

Three new national surveys about the April tax season find:

  • 51% of Americans use a professional tax preparer, 25% use a software program, 15% fill out the form manually, and 8% have a friend or family member do it, according to a new AP-Ipsos national survey (story, results) of 1,000 adults (conducted 4/2 through 4/4).
  • 53% of Americans say the amount they pay in taxes is "too high," 2% say "too low," and 41% say "just right," according to a new Gallup national survey of 1,008 adults (conducted 4/2 through 4/5).
  • 50% of Americans believe "person who earns twice as much as you" pays less than twice as much in taxes, 7% believe more than twice as much, 19% believe exactly twice as much, according to a new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 1,000 adults (conducted 4/6 through 4/7).

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 13, 2007 5:09 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Zogby Nevada

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Zogby telephone survey of likely caucus goers in Nevada (conducted 4/11 through 4/12) finds:

  • Among 500 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 35%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (21%) and former Sen. John Edwards (15%) in a Democratic caucus.
  • Among 502 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 37%) leads Sen. John McCain (15%), former Gov. Mitt Romney (15%), and former Sen. Fred Thompson (7%) in a Republican caucus.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 13, 2007 5:08 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Do National Polls Inflate Clinton's Standing?

By Mark Blumenthal

Two thoughtful but contradictory blog posts commenting on recent national presidential polling caught my eye this week. First, on Monday, "Gallup Guru" Frank Newport took issue with pundits "speculating that the race for the presidential nomination is becoming unsettled," arguing that Gallup's national data show "Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani remain significantly in the lead among their respective party faithful." Then yesterday, MyDD's Chris Bowers argued that such national polls from and others assume "absurdly high" level of turnout that "inflate Clinton's perceived national advantage." Bowers sees the race between Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards becoming "even more competitive than we had previously surmised." Which analysis makes more sense?

First, some interests disclosed: MyDD is a popular left-leaning blog, of course, but its authors and readers tend to be more hostile to the Clinton candidacy than those who identify as Democrats on national polls. About a year ago when I was still working as a Democratic campaign pollster, I consulted with Bowers on a "Netroots" survey of members of MoveOn.org that, among other things, found that Hillary Clinton's favorable ratings were lowest among those who read blogs most often.

Moving on to the substance, I agree with the first part of Bower's argument, that national surveys typically administer their presidential primary horserace questions to a much wider slice of the electorate than will actually participate in next year's primaries and caucuses. I argued essentially the same thing in the first two installments of my "primer" on presidential primary polling.

I am not ready, however, to agree that this practice inflates Clinton's lead in national polling. What evidence I see is sketchy and contradictory. For example, Tom Riehle of RT Strategies recently shared some tabulations combining data from two recent surveys conducted by his company (in February and late March) for the Cook Political Report. Clinton wins 41% of the vote against Obama, Edwards and the other candidates on these two surveys. However, she wins more support from pure Democratic identifiers (44%) than among the independents that lean Democratic (33%). That difference is statistically significant despite the small sample sizes (n=558 Democrats, n=164 Democratic leaners). So if sampling too many voters means too many independents, it will tend to depress Clinton's vote rather than exaggerate it.

On the other hand, we did a quick comparison of national surveys fielded this year that asked the primary question of all adult Democrats (and leaners) versus those that asked the question of only registered voters that identify or lean Democratic. We looked only vote questions testing the whole field, but excluding Al Gore. Clinton received an average of 44% on four surveys conducted by Gallup and ABC/Washington Post that included all adult Democrats, and 38% on eleven surveys** that included only Democrats registered to vote (or "likely" to vote in the general election). So we have sketchy support for the notion that surveys with slightly tighter screens show Clinton with slightly less support.

Admittedly, there are many potential pitfalls with such comparisons (commenters, have at it), and none of the available data allows for a direct test of Bowers' contention. In other words, we have no survey that allows us to compare the vote among all Democratic identifiers to a theoretically "true" likely primary electorate. So I think the jury is still out.

Chris cites some data from recent LA Times/Bloomberg and Pew Research Center surveys showing Obama running much closer among well educated Democrats. And better educated adults tend to vote at higher rates than less well educated voters. That much is true, although education is just one predictor of turnout. Another is age, and the Pew survey shows Clinton with more support among older voters who also tend to turn out at higher rates.

Chris puts a lot of emphasis on recent polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire showing a much more competitive race, with John Edwards polling better and Hillary not as well as in the national surveys. That is certainly true, although keep in mind that the closer race in those states has a lot to do with John Edwards strong finish in Iowa in 2004 and his non-stop campaigning in both states ever since.

But put methodology aside for a moment: We should be looking much more closely at the early state primaries to determine how the campaigns are doing. On this last point, I tend to part company with Frank Newport. He is absolutely right that Clinton holds a formidable lead in national surveys, but the national "party faithful" will not begin to cast their ballots until after we have heard from Iowa and New Hampshire (and Nevada and South Carolina). If history is a guide, those early contests may have a big impact on the national preferences. So if we want to track the standings that matter, we should focusing on the early states.***

**The eleven surveys were conducted by CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Cook/RT Strategies, Diageo/Hotline, ARG, Zogby and Democracy Corps.

***Physician, health thyself: Yes, Pollster is currently displaying charts of the national polls, but nothing on the early primaries. We hope to rectify that shortcoming very soon.

UPDATE: The just released CBS News poll confirms the pattern among independent Democrats cited above. According to the CBS pdf summary, Clinton "fares...better among Democratic identifiers than with those Independent voters who say they would vote in the Democratic primary."

By Mark Blumenthal on April 13, 2007 4:09 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: ARG Primary, Iraq

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new American Research Group national survey of likely primary voters (conducted 4/9 through 4/12) finds:

  • Among 600 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 24%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails with 19%.
  • Among 600 likely Republican primary voters, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs at 27%, Sen. John McCain at 23%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 12%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 10%, and former Sen. Fred Thompson at 9% in a national primary.
  • 70% of Democrats favor setting a deadline for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq; 77% of Republicans oppose.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 13, 2007 12:01 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen Obama/Generic

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 800 likely voters (conducted 4/9 through 4/10) finds:

  • In two nationwide general election match-ups, Sen. Barack Obama leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (52% to 37%) while running at a six-point advantage over Sen. John McCain (48% to 42%).
  • On a generic congressional ballot, 45% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate; 35% say Republican.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 13, 2007 12:00 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

April 12, 2007

POLL: Public Policy Polling (D) NC Senate

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Public Policy Polling (D) automated survey (story, results) of 556 likely voters in North Carolina (conducted 4/11) finds:

  • 40% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president; 55% disapprove.
  • 43% approve of the way Sen. Elizabeth Dole is handling her job as Senator; 40% disapprove.
  • In a 2008 senatorial match-up, Sen. Dole leads hypothetical challenger Rep. Brad Miller 44% to 33%.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 12, 2007 3:17 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Gallup's 2008 Generic Vote

By Mark Blumenthal

Some analysis released this morning by the Gallup Poll's Jeff Jones includes new results of a "generic" 2008 presidential election question that essentially confirms the results of the Diageo/Hotline survey we discussed earlier this week. Gallup found that a sample of adults preferred the Democrats by a 50% to 35% margin when asked, "If the 2008 election were being held today, which party's presidential candidate would you like to see win?" This result largely resolves my concern that a question order effect may have explained the 47% to 29% Democratic lead on the Hotline-Diageo poll.

Jones also digs deep into data Gallup collected during the first quarter of 2007 and confirms that Democrats currently enjoy a "favorable political environment." He finds, for example, a 51.9% to 39.6% Democratic advantage in "leaned" party identification, very similar to the recent results reported by the Pew Research Center.

Echoing much of the discussion of the last week, Jones also notes the "ray of hope" for Republicans - "their leading presidential contenders [Giuliani and McCain] are currently viewed more positively by Americans than the leading Democratic presidential contenders." But concludes with this caveat:

As for the candidates, as Giuliani, McCain, and Obama campaign for the presidency, they will come to be viewed more as partisan figures, and their unfavorable ratings will likely increase as supporters of the opposing party will find it difficult to give them a positive review. Also, the candidates may look better or worse to Americans than they do now when they are evaluated against the backdrop of the key election issues of 2008, whether those are the Iraq war, terrorism, the economy, or another issue that emerges, such as healthcare or moral values.

Read it all.

PS: Democracy Corps -- the organization led by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Democratic consultants James Carville and Bob Shrum -- released a report today that points out "generic" 2008 presidential question asked of 1,002 likely voters back in January. That result also confirms the findings from Gallup and Hotline:

I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

53% Democratic candidate
37% Republican candidate
1% Other (volunteered)
9% Undecided/refused

By Mark Blumenthal on April 12, 2007 2:55 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)