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April 20, 2007

POLL: ABC/Post/Stanford Global Warming

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new ABC News/Washington Post/Stanford University national survey (ABC story, results; Post story, results) of 1,002 adults (conducted 4/5 through 4/10) finds:

• 33% of Americans think "global warming/greenhouse effect/climate change" to be the single biggest environmental problem the world faces at this time; 16% thought that in March of 2006.
• 70% think "the federal government should do more than it's doing now to try to deal with global warming;" 7% say less; 21% say it's doing the right amount.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 20, 2007 4:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

More on Those Romney Numbers

By Mark Blumenthal

I want to follow-up briefly on that ABC News/Washington Post poll question on Mitt Romney that I wrote about yesterday, the one showing 54% of adults (and "a third" of Republicans) saying they would "definitely not support" Romney. Alert reader Brent emailed to point out that the most recent Time/SRBI survey included a similar batter of "would-would not consider" questions that produced a very different response for Romney. Let's take a look.

First, revisit the ABC News/Washington Post question and the results for both Romney and other candidates:

ABC News/Washington Post (n=1,141 adults, 4/12-15): If (NAME) wins the (Democratic/Republican) nomination for president would you definitely vote for (him/her) in the general election for president in 2008, would you consider voting for (him/her) or would you definitely not vote for (him/her)?

Now consider the Time/SRBI question and results:

Time/SRBI (n=1,102 registered voters, 4/5-9/07): If the following candidate were to run for president and the election was being held today how much would you support him/her...definitely support, probably support, probably not support, definitely not support?

Notice a fairly consistent pattern for the candidates included on both surveys: On the one hand, the "definitely support" results differ by no more than four percentage points for any candidate - falling well within the range of random sampling error. On the other, the "definitely not" category gets a consistently bigger response on the ABC/Post survey, ranging from 9 points higher for Hillary Clinton to the whopping 38 point difference for Mitt Romney. Interestingly, the "not support" results are much closer (within single digits) if you compare the "definitely not" response on the ABC/Post survey to the total of "definitely not" and "probably not" on the Time poll.

While these questions are obviously very similar, there are two big differences that explain the general pattern.** First, the ABC question identifies the political party of each candidate. This information presumably makes it easier for partisans to offer an opinion about unfamiliar candidates. Second, the ABC/Post question offers three answer categories (definitely for, consider and definitely not for), while the Time question offers four (definitely support, probably support, probably not, definitely not).

That difference may seem subtle, but consider that attitude that many political partisans will hold toward a candidate of the opposite party they know in name only. Consider a Democrat asked to evaluate Mitt Romney, for example. It easy to imagine such a person saying they would "probably not" support Romney, but having a hard time choosing between "someone I'd actively consider" and "someone I could never, ever support," since they know so little about him. Yet the ABC/Post question forces them to choose between "definitely not support" and "would consider voting for." I'd guess most of those people end up in the "definitely not support" category, which comes closer to their opinion.

Of course, that theory is not an obvious explanation for why "a third" of Republicans would say they would "definitely not support" Romney. Although, again, if their first impression of Romney is poor - based either on the hunting story or (as some commenters suggested yesterday) negative views of the Mormon religion - the same phenomenon may occur. Many Republicans may have opted for "definitely not" when their true attitudes were closer to "probably not."

For what it's worth, the "definitely not" response for Romney has increased only 2 points since February on the Time/SRBI survey (from 14% to 16%), but the total of "definitely not" and "probably not" has increased by 12 points (from 33% to 45%).

So which question is more valid? Neither is "bad," in my view, but I think the Time/SRBI question provides a more interpretable snapshot of current opinions of most of these candidates. Few are well known enough at this stage to inspire truly strong support or opposition. When asked about individual candidates, the overwhelming majority of voters are either unfamiliar with candidates or are only willing to say which way they will "probably" vote (Hillary Clinton being the notable exception). Opposition to Mitt Romney is probably increasing, but not the dramatically high levels suggested by the ABC/Post poll.

**And yes, a third difference is that the ABC/Post poll asked these questions of adults and the Time/SRBI asked them only of registered voters. If anything, however, the difference in populations should have produced more intensity of feeling on the Time survey, since registered voters tend to be better informed and more opinionated about political candidates than non-registrants. Obviously, the numbers above show the opposite pattern.

UPDATE: While I was obsessing about Romney's numbers, Greg Sargent at TPMCafe and, in turn, Ana Marie Cox at Time were noticing the apparent similarity in the Clinton and McCain results on the ABC/Post poll: McCain's "definitely not support" number (47%) is two points higher than Clinton's (45%). So, asks Sargent appropriately, why not more "unelectable" stories about McCain?

Well, here too, the Time/SRBI version above shows a different result: Clinton's "definitely not" number is 36% to McCain's 17%, while the total "not support" numbers are 50% and 46% respectively. Again, the same pattern: The softer "probably not" answers on the Time poll seem to become "definitely not" on the ABC/Post survey.

On the subject of Clinton's electability, "Gallup Guru" Frank Newport has posted some thoughts worth reading about whether Clinton can win with a 45% favorable rating. Maybe, he concludes, after looking at past Gallup numbers. Keep in mind that favorable rating questions, like the "would you consider" item discussed here, are not created equal.

By Mark Blumenthal on April 20, 2007 3:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Strategic Vision (R) MI & PA Primaries

By Eric Dienstfrey

Two new Strategic Vision (R) statewide surveys of 1200 likely voters in both Michigan and Pennsylvania (conducted 4/13 through 4/15) find:

• Among Republicans in Michigan, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs at 26%, while Sen. John McCain runs at 22% in a statewide primary. Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 29%, Sen. Barack Obama at 24%, and former Sen. John Edwards at 22%.
• Among Republicans in Pennsylvania, Giuliani leads McCain 44% to 17%; Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 33% to 23%.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 20, 2007 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen Richardson, Gun Control

By Eric Dienstfrey

Two new Rasmussen Reports automated surveys find:

• Among 1,000 adults nationwide, 45% think the U.S. needs stricter gun laws while 37% think it does not (conducted 4/18 through 4/19).
• Among 800 likely voters, Gov. Bill Richardson leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (42% to 34%) but trails former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (51% to 34%) in nationwide presidential match-ups (conducted 4/11 through 4/12).

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 20, 2007 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

April 19, 2007

POLL: Fox National Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics national survey (story, results) of 900 registered voters (conducted 4/17 through 4/18) finds:

• 38% approve of the job Bush is doing as president; 54% disapprove.
• Among Democrats asked to choose between three candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 31%, Sen. Barack Obama at 27%, and former Sen. John Edwards at 23% in a national primary. In a trial heat of all Democratic candidates, Clinton leads Obama 41% to 20%, while former V.P. Al Gore and Edwards trail with 16% and 12% respectively.
• Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 35%) leads Sen. John McCain (16%), former Gov. Mitt Romney (10%), former Speaker Newt Gingrich (9%), and former Sen. Fred Thompson (8%) in a national primary.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 19, 2007 2:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Romney's Suprising Post/ABC Numbers

By Mark Blumenthal

I am little surprised that this finding reported in today's Washington Post, from the latest Post/ABC News poll, is not getting more attention:

Although [Mitt] Romney is not as well known nationally as many of the other leading candidates, he has made a poor first impression on the public. Fifty-four percent said they would definitely not vote for him; 7 percent said they definitely would back him.

The ABC News write-up includes this additional detail. The 54 percent that would definitely not support Romney includes "a third of Republicans - a particularly broad level of rejection within his own party."

A third of Republicans? Yes, the presidential campaign is off to its earliest start ever, and yes, according to the same ABC/Post poll, the 66% following the presidential campaign "very closely" or "somewhat closely" is higher now than it was in September 2003 (56%) or October 1999 (61%), but that sort of reaction still seems surprisingly high. Especially since, a bit later in the survey, only 14% say they know a "great deal" or a "good amount" about Romney's positions on specific issues, 15% say they know some and more than half (51%) say they know "little or nothing."

As both articles point out, opposition to Romney is greater than much better known figures, such as Hillary Clinton (45%) and John McCain (47%).

Two other polls out in the last week showed Romney with negative ratings that were slightly (though not significantly) higher than his positives: Gallup (23% favorable, 24% unfavorable - via Polling Report) and CBS News (10% favorable, 16% unfavorable). Still, the negative percentages on those surveys clearly fall far short of the 54% definitely not support number on the ABC/Post poll.

Romney was the subject of much negative coverage recently focusing the his claims to be a "lifelong hunter," including a recent attack by Republican candidate Mike Huckabee. But I am still puzzled by the huge "definitely not support" result in the Post/ABC survey. Anyone have a better theory?

UPDATE: The recent Time/SRBI survey asked a similar question that produced some very different results. Details here.

By Mark Blumenthal on April 19, 2007 11:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: SurveyUSA VA Tech/Gun Laws

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 500 adults in the cities of Roanoke and Lynchburg, Virginia (conducted 4/18 for WDBJ-TV) finds:

• 31% feel more people would have died at Virginia Tech if guns were allowed on campus; 17% feel fewer people would have died; 44% feel it would not have made a difference.
• 52% think gun laws in Virginia should be more restrictive than they are now; 8% say less restrictive; 38% say the current laws are about right.

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 19, 2007 11:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)