A new Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll of likely voters in Kentucky (conducted 5/10 through 5/15) finds:
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 19, 2007 3:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
A new Research 2000 statewide survey (story, results) of 600 likely voters in Iowa (conducted 5/14 through 5/16 for KCCI-TV) finds:
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 18, 2007 3:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 500 registered voters in Oregon (conducted 5/11 through 5/13) finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading former Gov. Mitt Romney (53% to 38%), edging out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (46% to 45%), and running even with Sen. John McCain (both at 46%) in a statewide general election match-ups.
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 18, 2007 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
On Monday, I linked to a new report from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) showing that 12.8% of American households had only wireless phones (and no land line phones) during the second half of 2006. "I don't know how this impacts traditional polling techniques," MyDD's Matt Stoller noted on Tuesday, "but I am curious."
Well, funny he should ask. The released of the NCHS report was timed, in part, to coincide with the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) which I am attending in Anaheim, California. One thing I can report is that the community of survey researchers continues to take the trend toward wireless only households very seriously (as they have at AAPOR conferences for the last four or five years).
Today, Stephen Steven Blumberg of NCHS presented his findings in
greater detail to a standing room audience of academic and professional survey
researchers at the conference. Their report is one of twenty-two research
papers, plus a panel discussion and a mini-course being presented here just on
the subject of mobile phones and their impact on polling. Many of these papers
describe pilot studies involving interviews conducted with respondents on their cell phones.
We often say that political polling is a mix of both science and art. One of the things I appreciate most about these AAPOR meetings is the exposure I get to the true science of this profession, which as of late has focused on the issue of how to conduct surveys on cell phones. One thing that many here I spoke with seem to agree on is that by 2008, many of the national news media pollsters are considering adding some "cell phone component" to their surveys.
I am certain I will have more to report in the weeks
following the conference, although as a result of the conference, my blogging
has been light this week. For better or worse, I wear many hats at AAPOR: I
serve on the organization's executive council, I will be presenting a paper
with Charles Franklin tomorrow (which we hope to roll out on the blog next
week) and I try to attend as many sessions as possible and absorb all that the
conference has to offer.
By Mark Blumenthal on May 18, 2007 6:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
New analyses from Pew Research Center find:
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 17, 2007 9:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
A new Public Policy Polling (D) automated survey (story, results) of 606 likely voters in North Carolina (conducted 5/15) finds:
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 17, 2007 9:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
A new Zogby telephone survey of likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 5/15 through 5/16) finds:
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 17, 2007 9:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 500 registered voters in New Mexico (conducted 5/11 through 5/13) finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading former Gov. Mitt Romney (53% to 37%), edging out Sen. John McCain (49% to 44%) and running within the margin of sampling error of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (46% to 47% respectively) in statewide general election match-ups.
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 17, 2007 2:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 544 registered voters in Minnesota (conducted 5/11 through 5/13) finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading former Gov. Mitt Romney (51% to 40%) but running within the margin of error of both Sen. John McCain (45% to 49% respectively) and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (45% to 47%) in statewide general election match-ups.
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 17, 2007 2:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
A new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey (results, Charles Franklin's analysis) of 855 registered voters (conducted 5/11 through 5/13) finds: