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June 30, 2007

POLL: CBS News on Bush, Congress, Iraq & Campaign 2008

By Mark Blumenthal

A new CBS News national survey (Bush/Iraq story, results; Campaign 2008 story, results) of 835 adults (conducted 6/26 through 6/28) finds:

• 27% approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president and 65% disapprove, "the lowest number yet recorded in the CBS News Poll."

• 27% approve of the way Congress is handling its job and 60% disapprove. The rating "has dropped nine points since last month and is now at the level it was prior to last fall's mid-term elections."

• 66% of Americans "say the number of U.S. troops in Iraq should be decreased, with 40% wanting all U.S. troops removed - up seven points from April."

• Among 336 Democratic primary voters, when presented a three-way choice 48% prefer Hillary Clinton, 24% Barack Obama, 11% John Edwards, 8% would rather see someone else nominated and the rest (9%) are completely undecided or unsure

• Among 212 Republican primary voters, when presented a four-way choice 34% prefer Rudy Giuliani, 22% Fred Thompson, 21% John McCain, 6% Mitt Romney, 7% would rather see someone else nominated and the rest (10%) are say they are completely undecided or unsure.

By Mark Blumenthal on June 30, 2007 3:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

June 29, 2007

Michael McDonald on the CPS 2006 Turnout Data

By Mark Blumenthal

George Mason University Professor Michael McDonald, whose voter turnout web site is one of the most useful election data resources on the web, sends along this note:

The 2006 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement, a primary source of data for many voting studies because of its large state sample sizes, is now available for download. To access these data, use the Census Bureau's Data Ferret program.

Preliminary analysis

The CPS reports that 47.8% (+/- 0.4%, remember, the CPS sample size of over 100,000 is very large and that margin of error varies with sub-sample sizes) of the citizen voting-age population reported voting, which compares to my most recent turnout rate estimate of 41.3%. The higher CPS turnout rate is consistent with a well-known phenomenon known as "over-report" bias, where more people report voting than aggregate statistics indicate. For comparison purposes, 46.1% of the 2002 CPS citizen voting-age population reported voting while my turnout rate estimate is 40.5%.

The overall percentage of the electorate reporting voting before Election Day is 18.5%, down slightly from 20.0% in 2004 and up from 14.2% in 2002. California and Washington saw an increases in early voting to 33.2% in 2006 from 29.9% in 2004 (CA) and to 71.8% in 2006 from 60.6% in 2004 (WA), however, increases were reported in only 15 states. This may reflect a tendency of early voting to drop off in midterm elections, so I would caution that 2006 is probably not indicative of a new downward trend in early voting which has increased strongly in every election since 1998 from 11.2%. (Of course, these are self-reported rates, not actual election statistics such as those collected by The Early Voting Center.) If these trends persist, it may very well be true that more Californians will have voted early before the 2008 New Hampshire primary than all New Hampshire voters.

Turnout by demographic categories show that higher turnout in 2006 versus 2002 likely came from younger, white, moderately educated citizens (slightly more women, too). Perhaps most interesting is the lower turnout among non-Hispanic African-Americans, which indicates that Democrats likely won in 2006 by expanding their base rather than relying on their core constituencies, though we can't know for certain from these data because the CPS does not ask who people voted for.

One other interesting tidbit is found in Tennessee where Harold Ford ran in a closely contested U.S. Senate race. If the CPS is correct, non-Hispanic African-American turnout rates went down in Tennessee a non-statistically significant amount between 2002 and 2006, from 41.1% to 38.9% (+/- 7.6%).

By Mark Blumenthal on June 29, 2007 9:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: CNN on Congressional Democrats and Republicans

By Mark Blumenthal

Yet more results from the latest CNN/ORC national survey (story, results) of 1,029 adults (conducted 6/22 through 6/24) finds:

• Although fewer adults approve (42%) than disapprove (49%) "what the Democratic leaders in the U.S. House and Senate have done so far this year," a majority says it is good (57%) rather than bad (31%) "that the Democratic Party is in control of the Congress."

• The "Democratic Party" receives a net positive rating (51% favorable, 38% unfavorable), while the ratings of the "Republican Party" are net negative (36% favorable, 53% unfavorable).

• Among 907 registered voters, Democrats begin with a twelve point lead (53% to 41%) in the generic Congressional vote.

[Hat tip: TPMCafe]

By Mark Blumenthal on June 29, 2007 6:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Bush Approval: Fox at 31%, Trend at 29.5%

By Charles Franklin

The new Fox poll taken 6/26-27/07 pegs approval of President Bush at 31%, disapproval at 60%. With this addition, my trend estimate of approval stands at 29.5%.

The diagnostics show well behaved data so little to be suspicious of at the moment.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

By Charles Franklin on June 29, 2007 2:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Mason-Dixon Candidate Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Mason-Dixon national survey (via MSNBC's First Read) of 625 likely general election voters (conducted 6/23 through 6/25) tests favorable ratings and whether respondents would or would not consider voting for each of eleven current or potential presidential candidates.

NBC's Mark Murray: "[Sen. Hillary] Clinton is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating."

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 29, 2007 3:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: CBS News Immigration

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new CBS News national survey (story, results) of 505 adults (conducted 6/26 through 6/27) finds:

• 13% think Congress should pass "a bill dealing with illegal immigration," based on what they've heard or read about the debate over this legislation; 35% think they should not pass the bill; 51% haven't heard enough to say.

• 65% believe "ILLEGAL immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years" should be offered a chance to keep their jobs; 28% say they should be deported back to their native country.

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 29, 2007 2:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

June 28, 2007

POLL: Fox National Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics national survey (story, results) of 900 registered voters (conducted 6/26 through 6/27) finds:

• 31% approve of the job George Bush is doing as president; 60% disapprove.

• Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 42%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (19%), former V.P. Al Gore (14%), and former Sen. John Edwards (10%) in a national primary. Excluding Gore, Clinton leads Obama 47% to 21%.

• Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 29%) leads Sen. John McCain (17%), and former Sen. Fred Thompson (15%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney and former Speaker New Gingrich both trail at 8%.

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 28, 2007 9:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

What To Do About Al Gore?

By Charles Franklin

Despite his repeated assertions that he isn't a candidate his supporters keep hoping he'll enter the race. In the national polls he has consistently been in 3rd place, ahead of Edwards, and winning about 15% of the vote as of recently. But he says he isn't a candidate. So what should pollsters do about including him or not in the polls?

Whenever a survey question offers an added choice, that option must win at least some votes. In the primary contest, a well known and popular (among Democrats) figure like Gore is likely to attract support from voters not happy with the top candidates and not familiar with the bottom tier. The result is that Gore runs well even as he is not running.

On the Republican side, this issue has been somewhat less of a problem. Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson have both made clear they are "considering" runs making the rationale for including much more compelling.

Some polls have asked for second choices and reallocated the Gore vote to those second choices as a way of measuring the race both with and without Gore. But the practice is quite inconsistent and many polls report only results with Gore. A smaller number report polls