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August 10, 2007

POLL: Gallup 08 Favorables

By Eric Dienstfrey

Additional analysis from the recent USA Today/Gallup national survey of 1,012 adults (conducted 8/3 through 8/5) finds:

• Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has the highest favorable rating (55%) and the highest net favorable rating (+23) of eight possible presidential candidates. Sen. Barack Obama has a net favorable rating of +14, former Sen. John Edwards +12, and former Sen. Fred Thompson +11.

Combined results from the four most recent Gallup surveys finds 92% of Democrats with a post-graduate education rate Sen. Barack Obama favorably while 86% rate Sen. Hillary Clinton favorably. Among Democrats with a high school education or less, 66% rate Obama favorably while 86% rate Clinton favorably.

By Eric Dienstfrey on August 10, 2007 7:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (23) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Hart (D)/McLaughlin (R) New Hampshire Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A recent Hart Research (D) and McLaughlin & Associates (R) statewide survey of likely voters in New Hampshire (conducted 7/24 through 7/26) and sponsored by One Vote 08 finds:

• Among 504 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 19%) in a statewide survey, former Sen. John Edwards trails at 15%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 12%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

• Among 500 likely Republican primary voters, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 33% to 17% in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 16%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 13%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all New Hampshire Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

Democrats	Republicans

By Eric Dienstfrey on August 10, 2007 2:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: CNN GOP Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

Additional results from the new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey (story, results) of 1,029 adults (conducted 8/6 through 8/8) finds:

• Among 357 registered Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (27% to 19%) in a national primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 14%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 12%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 11%. Without Gingrich, Giuliani leads Thompson 29% to 22%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

• 44% of Republicans say Giuliani has "the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the general election next November;" 17% say Thompson, 11% say McCain, 8% say Romney.

By Eric Dienstfrey on August 10, 2007 2:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

August 9, 2007

A Different Approach: The Univ. of Iowa Caucus Poll

By Mark Blumenthal

A few additional notes on the poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers from the University of Iowa that we linked to earlier, based on information provided via email by U. of Iowa Assoc. Prof. David Redlawski:

First, the survey used a sample drawn from a list of Iowa households listed in telephone directories. As such, it has a potential coverage problem because it misses Iowans with unlisted telephone numbers. The survey screened to interview 907 self-reported registered voters.

Second, "because of a programming glitch," Redlawsk said he "cannot distinguish the 'no registered voters' from other refusals." However, we know that as of the fall of 2006, 84% of Iowa's adults were registered voters (1.9 million** registered voters divided by 2.26 million voting age adults).

Based on that statistic, we can make the following assumptions about the percentage of adults represented by the various subgroups reported on for this survey:

• 425 Democratic Caucus Goers = 40% of adults
• 319 "Most Likely" Democratic Caucus Goers = 29% of adults
• 306 Republican Caucus Goers = 28% of adults
• 223 "Most Likely Republican Caucus Goers = 21% of adults

In short, the various subgroups of likely caucus goers in the U. of Iowa poll represent a much broader slice of Iowa voters than the recent ABC/Washington Post survey or the Des Moines Register survey from last year.

Put another way, even the "most likely" caucus-goer definitions for this survey project to a combined Democratic and Republican turnout of 1.1 million participants - half the adults in Iowa. By comparison, Democratic turnout was an estimated 124,000 147,000 in 2004, and estimated Republican turnout was 108,000 90,000 in 1988.

Finally, even putting screening issues aside, this survey used an entirely open-ended vote preference question. Respondents had to volunteer the name of their choice without prompting. This method undoubtedly provides a tougher test of voter commitment, but also produces a much bigger undecided and renders the results incomparable to other Iowa polls. As such, we have not included either of the U. of Iowa polls in our Iowa charts.

**UPDATE: In doing these calculations, I should have added a decimal to the registered voter number (i.e. 1.97 voters rather than 1.9) which would have shown 87% as registered to vote rather than 84%. That change would increase my estimate of the percentage of adults represented by each sample to 30.6% for the "mostly likely" Democratic caucus goers and 21.4% for the "most likely" Republicans.

By Mark Blumenthal on August 9, 2007 10:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: CNN Bush Approval, Dems, Iraq

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey of 1,029 adults (conducted 8/6 through 8/8) finds that 36% approve of the job George Bush is doing as president; 61% disapprove.

UPDATE: Additional results (bridge safety; Iraq/Dem Primary) find:

• 54% to 43% think the U.S. "can win" the war in Iraq; 42% to 55% think it "will win."

• Among 458 registered Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 40% to 21% in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%, former V.P. Al Gore at 11%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 5%. Without Gore, Clinton leads Obama 44% to 24%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

By Eric Dienstfrey on August 9, 2007 9:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Gallup Looks at Likely Primary Voters

By Mark Blumenthal

Gallup Guru Frank Newport followed up on the discussion here and elsewhere about "possible differences between broad samples of voters and likely voters" when Gallup asks about the 2008 party nomination contests on national surveys. His conclusion:

[O]ur analysis suggests at this point there is little difference at the national level in candidate preferences even when we analyze smaller groups of more hard-core voters. For our latest national poll, we narrowed the sample down to those Democrats who said they were "extremely likely" to vote in the Democratic primary in their state next year. No difference. Hillary Clinton heads by 20 points over Obama. We also looked at "pure Democrats" -- excluding those independents who lean Democratic. Hillary does even better among her party faithful, beating Obama by 30 points.

[snip]

What about likely voters on the Republican side? Fred Thompson picks up a little among Republicans who are extremely likely to vote in the Republican primary, such that Giuliani's lead is trimmed to 8- points, 32% to 24%. Among hard-core Republicans -- excluding independents who lean Republican -- Giuliani is ahead of Thompson 30% to 20%.

Bottom line: The basic structure of the national presidential race for both parties appears to be similar regardless of whether one looks at all voters, or just those voters who are most likely to actually vote.

A further analysis of the same data posted this morning by Gallup's Lydia Saad provides more numbers for the Democrats, plus more information on the subgroups that Newport examined. First, for the Democrats:

• All Democratic identifiers and "leaners" (initially independent adults that say they lean to the Democratic Party) - 48% of adults.

• All Democratic identifiers and "leaners" that also say they are "extremely likely" to vote in the Democratic primaries or caucuses" - 27% of adults; 58% of all Democrats & leaners.

• "Pure Democrats" (excludes independent "leaners") - 30% of adults.

• Pure Democrats that are registered to vote plus registered Democratic "leaners" that say they are "extremely likely" to participate in the Democratic primaries or caucuses - 30% of adults; 63% of all Democrats & leaners.**

The table below shows the full results included in the Saad report for the first and last groups, plus the Clinton margins reported in Newport's Gallup Guru post. As Saad notes, looking at the last group (registered Democratic identifiers plus "extremely likely" registered leaners):

Clinton still dominates the field, although by a bit smaller margin than among all Democrats. Support for Clinton remains about the same, at 47%, but the percentage choosing Obama is slightly higher, at 31%.

One take-away point from these data. How the pollster defines a "likely voter" matters as much as how tightly they screen. Notice that the third and fourth columns above capture slices of Democrats that are the same size (30% of adults) but with very different compositions. Clinton leads Obama by 30 points among "pure Democrats," but remove non-registrants and add back indpendents that are "extremely likely" to vote in a Democratic primary, and Clinton's lead drops to just 16 points.

Also, bear in mind that the actual turnout in all of the 2004 Democratic primaries and caucuses amounted to less than 10% of adults in the United States.

**The definition of the fourth subgroup in the Gallup report is a bit ambiguous. I emailed Gallup to request confirmation.

By Mark Blumenthal on August 9, 2007 7:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen Obama, Richardson vs. Giuliani, Thompson

By Eric Dienstfrey

Two new Rasmussen Reports automated surveys find:

• Among 800 likely voters, Sen. Barack Obama edges out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (44% to 43%) and leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (46% to 39%) in nationwide general election match-ups (conducted 8/6 through 8/7).

• Among 1,200 likely voters, Thompson edges out Gov. Bill Richardson (41% to 40%) while Giuliani leads Richardson him (47% to 39%) in nationwide general election match-ups (conducted 8/3 through 5/5).

By Eric Dienstfrey on August 9, 2007 3:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: U of Iowa IA Caucus

By Eric Dienstfrey

Via OpenLeft, A new University of Iowa statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 7/29 through 8/5) finds:

• Among 319 "most likely" Democratic caucus goers, former Sen. John Edwards edges out Sen. Hillary Clinton (26% to 25%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. Barack Obama trails at 19%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 9%. Including "less likely" caucus goers (425 total), Clinton runs at 27%, Edwards and Obama both at 22%.

• Among 223 "most likely" Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (28% to 12%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 8%, Rep. Tom Tancredo at 5%, Sen. Sam Brownback at 4%, Sen. John McCain at 3%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 2%. Including "less likely" caucus goers (306 total), Romney leads Giuliani 27% to 11%.

Note: According to the University of Iowa release, all candidate names were "given by respondent" on the presidential preference question, which appears to indicate an open ended question in which respondents had to volunteer the candidate name without prompting.

By Eric Dienstfrey on August 9, 2007 3:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

August 8, 2007