September 2, 2007 - September 8, 2007
September 7, 2007
By Eric Dienstfrey
ABC News sends word that they will be releasing a new representative survey
of more than 2,200 Iraqis conducted in late August in partnership with BBC
and NHK. The survey will be featured as part of their "Iraq: Where Things
Stand"series that will air on various ABC News broadcasts beginning on
Sunday.
ABC tells us that the full results will be available on Monday morning; we
will provide links when available.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 7, 2007 7:57 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
Via USAToday On Politics, new results from a recent Pew Research Center national survey of 3,002 adults (conducted 8/1 through 8/18 by Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas, Inc.) finds:
- "The candidates viewed by voters as the least religious among the leading contenders are the current frontrunners for the Democratic and Republican nominations -- Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, respectively."
- When rating each Democratic presidential candidate individually, 16% say Sen. Hillary Clinton is "very" religious, 24% say Sen. Barack Obama is, and 28% say former Sen. John Edwards is.
- When rating each Republican presidential candidate individually, 14% say former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is very religious, 16% say former Sen. Fred Thompson is, 19% say Sen. John McCain is, and 46% say former Gov. Mitt Romney is.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 7, 2007 4:42 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new RBI Strategies & Research statewide survey (release, results, crosstabs) of 500 likely voters in Colorado (conducted 8/28 through 8/31) finds:
- 53% rate former Mayor Rudy Giuliani favorably (net favorable 17%), 51% rate Sen. Barack Obama favorably (net favorable 13%), 34% rate former Gov. Mitt Romney favorably (net favorable at 0%), and 43% rate Sen. Hillary Clinton favorably (net favorable of -8%).
- General election match-ups:
Giuliani 50%, Clinton 44%
Giuliani 46%, Obama 45%
Romney 42%, Clinton 48%
Romney 37%, Obama 50%
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 7, 2007 4:32 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 600 adults in Idaho (conducted 9/6 through 9/7) finds:
- 52% say Sen. Larry Craig should leave the Senate on September 30th, 29% say he should serve out his term but not run for re-election, 17% say she should serve out his term and run for re-election in 2008.
- On a scale of 1 to 10 "where 10 means you have the highest possible respect and 1 means you have no respect whatsoever," 30% rate Craig a 1; his average rating is 4.2.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 7, 2007 4:12 PM
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By Mark Blumenthal
I'm in a day long meeting as part of my volunteer duties on
the executive council of the American Association for Public Opinion research. Meanwhile...
Politico's Jim Harris and Jim
VandeHei review the new book by Clinton
pollster Mark Penn and explore the parallels between Penn and former Bush
advisor Karl Rove (via Ben Smith).
Republican pollster David
Hill reaches some surprising conclusions about Hillary Clinton's favorable
ratings among independents.
Gallup Guru Frank Newport looks at the plummeting confidence in the federal government.
Kathy
Frankovic ponders the challenges of polling during a major crisis.
The Washington Post's
Jennifer
Agiesta looks at the Virginia
favorable ratings of former Governor and potential Senate candidate Mark
Warner.
Carl
Bialik raises questions about another online survey about online activity.
And finally, via First Read,
the quote of the week from Senator and presidential candidate Chris Dodd: "Polls
don't mean spit."
By Mark Blumenthal on September 7, 2007 3:25 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A recent Gallup national survey of 1,001 adults randomly drawn from Gallup's nationally representative household panel (conducted 8/23 through 8/26) finds:
- When asked to rate presidential candidates individually in terms of a temperature scale, 53% say Sen. Barack Obama is warm (between 51° and 100°); 50% say former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is warm, 49% say Sen. Hillary Clinton is, 47% say former Sen. John Edwards is, and 44% say Sen. John McCain is.
- Among 316 Democrats, Clinton averages at 71.6°, Obama at 69.1°, and Edwards at 64.3°.
- Among 321 Republicans, Giuliani averages at 64.4°, McCain at 59.0°, and former Sen. Fred Thompson at 66.3°.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 7, 2007 2:21 PM
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September 6, 2007
By Mark Blumenthal
One quick follow-up on that Clemson University Palmetto
survey (release,
results)
of South Carolina
voters we linked
to earlier. We neglected to include a "hat tip" to the Politico's always
attentive Ben Smith who posted the survey last night, but also pointed
out that the release showed "Obama's favorables dropping."
The release does show Obama's favorable rating among
Democrats** dropping from 82% to 63%, but the base used to calculate those numbers
was not spelled out clearly and may have been a little confusing.
The Palmetto Poll release
reported favorable and unfavorable ratings for each candidate that were calculated
as a percentage of those who had "heard of" that candidate. The poll shows the "heard
of" percentage for Obama increasing from 58% in October 2006 to 91% in the new
survey last month, while showing his "Favorable" percentage dropping from 82%
to 63%. So if I recalculate Obama's favorable rating the way most pollsters do
-- as a percentage of all respondents -- it actually increased from 48% to 57%.
Obama's ratings a year ago among were quite unique: He was not
as well known as Clinton (nationally) and Edwards (in South Carolina), but
those who knew Obama were unusually enthusiastic. Now, all three candidates are
nearly even in South Carolina in terms of how their recognition translates into favorable rating (though
Obama's rating is now slightly lower than Edwards or Clinton as a percentage of
whose who know him).
**It may have been a bit unclear in the Palmetto Poll
release, but their sample of 400 Democrats heard only questions about the Democratic
candidates, while their separate sample of 400 Republicans heard only questions
about Republican candidates. Thanks to David Woodward at the University of South
Carolina who helped clear this up.
By Mark Blumenthal on September 6, 2007 9:58 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new IVR Polls automated survey of 570 likely Republican primary voters in Texas (conducted 8/31) finds former Sen. Fred Thompson leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (25% to 21%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 15%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 13%, Sen. John McCain at 8%, Rep. Ron Paul at 5%.
Note: IVR Polls "named all candidates, but only gave choices for the top 6, plus options for 'Other' and 'Undecided.'"
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 6, 2007 9:44 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new Public Policy Polling (D) automated survey of likely primary voters in North Carolina (conducted 9/5) finds:
- Among 451 Democrats asked to choose between three candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton edges out former Sen. John Edwards (30% to 28%) in a statewide primary; Sen. Barack Obama trails at 21%, "a different candidate" at 12%.
- Among 645 Republicans asked to choose between four candidates, former Sen. Fred Thompson leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (24% to 16%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 13%, Sen. John McCain at 7%, "a different candidates" at 7%.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 6, 2007 9:05 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
New Rasmussen Reports automated surveys find:
- Among 800 likely voters nationwide (conducted 8/29 through 8/30), former Sen. John Edwards leads Sen. John McCain (45% to 41%) and leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (49% to 38%) in general election match-ups.
- Among 800 likely voters nationwide (conducted 9/4), former Mayor Rudy Giuliani edges out Sen. Barack Obama (45% to 44%) while Obama edges out former Sen. Fred Thompson (46% to 42%) in general election match-ups.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 6, 2007 5:01 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new Clemson University Palmetto statewide survey (release, results) of likely voters in South Carolina (conducted 8/20-24/07) finds:
- Among 400 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (26% to 16%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 10%, former V.P. Al Gore at 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each, and 35% are undecided.
- Among 400 Republicans, former Sen. Fred Thompson edges out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (19% to 18%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain follows at 15%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 11%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each, and 20% are undecided.
- Among Republicans, 36% are likely to vote to re-elect Lindsey Graham for Senate "regardless of who runs against him;" 37% will "depending on who runs against him;" 24% say they will vote for someone else.
View all South Carolina Primary poll data at Pollster.com:
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 6, 2007 3:45 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new Quinnipiac University statewide survey of 1,430 registered voters in Ohio (conducted 8/28 through 9/3) finds:
- Among 528 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (44% to 15%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 11%, former V.P. Al Gore at 8%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
- Among 497 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (21% to 15%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 10%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 8%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
General Election Match-ups:
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 40%
Clinton 46%, McCain 41%
Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%
Clinton 50%, Romney 37%
Obama 42%, Giuliani 41%
Obama 41%, McCain 42%
Obama 46%, Thompson 34%
Obama 46%, Romney 32%
Edwards 47%, Giuliani 38%
Edwards 46%, McCain 38%
Edwards 50%, Thompson 32%
Edwards 50%, Romney 30%
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 6, 2007 3:33 PM
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September 5, 2007
By Eric Dienstfrey
A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 1,200 adults (conducted 9/3 through 9/4) finds:
- When asked to rate each presidential candidate on a scale of 1 to 10 "where 10 means you have the highest possible respect for the person, and 1 means you have no respect for that person whatsoever," ratings for former Mayor Rudy Giuliani average at 5.5, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 5.3, senators Barack Obama and John McCain both at 5.2, and former senators John Edwards and Fred Thompson both at 5.0.
- Ratings for Former Pres. Bill Clinton average at 6.1 today -- 5.2 on the eve of his grand jury testimony.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 5, 2007 10:33 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new American Research Group statewide survey of likely primary voters in Michigan (conducted 9/1 through 9/4) finds:
- Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
- Among 600 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (43% to 21%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 14%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 5%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
View all Michigan Primary poll data at Pollster.com:
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 5, 2007 6:57 PM
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September 4, 2007
By Mark Blumenthal
Over the weekend, managers for two Republicans presidential candidates
had exchanged poll memos in an act that has become a regular feature of the
race so far. This time, as reported by the Politico's
Jonathan Martin, it was Brent
Seaborn of the Giuliani campaign and pollster John
McLaughlin on behalf of the nascent Fred Thompson campaign opining on the
meaning of recent national polls.
Needless to say, both make the most of the poll results that
favor their candidate. For "Team Rudy," that
means emphasizing national results showing Giuliani leading. For the Thompson
campaign, it means highlighting polls showing dissatisfaction among the rank
and file Republicans with the "current GOP crop" of candidates (I'm a
little surprised that Team Fred didn't make more of the recent Gallup analysis showing
Thompson leading Giuliani nationally among those Republicans familiar with the
top four candidates...but what do I know). As always, read these memos with the appropriate
skepticism - their authors will understandably make the best case that they
can.
I thought the McLaughlin/Thompson memo especially link-worthy
due to the intriguing collection of past exit poll data from Republican contests in Iowa,
New Hampshire and South Carolina (links added):
Iowa -- 1996
Decided Who To Vote For In...
Last 3 Days 23%
Last Week 19% (42% cumulative)
1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data
New Hampshire -- 1996
Decided Who To Vote For In...
Election Day 23%
Last 3 Days 20% (43% cumulative)
Last Week 22% (65% cumulative)
1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data
New
Hampshire -- 2000
Decided who to vote for in...
Election Day 14%
Last 3 Days 12% (26% cumulative)
Last Week 24% (50% cumulative)
2000 CNN Exit Poll Data
South Carolina -- 1996
Decided Who To Vote For In...
Today 17%
Last 3 Days 14% (31% cumulative)
Last Week 24% (55% cumulative)
1996 CNN/VNS Exit Poll Data
South
Carolina -- 2000
When Did You Decide To Vote?
Today 9%
Last 3 Days 10% (19% cumulative)
Last Week 19% (38% cumulative)
2000 CNN Exit Poll Data
And for those curious, I gathered the results from the same
questions taken from exit polls conducted for the recent Democratic primaries and caucuses in
these same states (all NEP exit or entrance polls as posted by CNN):
Iowa - 2004
Decided who to vote for in...
Last 3 Days 21%
Last Week 21% (42% cumulative)
Last Month 27%
Before that 30%
New
Hampshire - 2004
Decided who to vote for in...
Last 3 Days 35%
Last Week 19% (54% cumulative)
Last Month 19%
Before that 26%
South
Carolina - 2004
Decided who to vote for in...
Election Day 19%
Last 3 Days 14%
Last Week 21% (54% cumulative)
Last Month 26%
Before that 20%
New
Hampshire -- 2000
Decided who to vote for in...
Election Day 15%
Last 3 Days 11%
Last Week 21% (47% cumulative)
Earlier This Year 34%
Last Year 18%
The bottom line: We need to distinguish between voter preferences and their final decisions. The polls we are seeing
now measure current preferences, but those early leanings can change. Historically, these
exit poll data tell us that roughly half the voters in Iowa,
New Hampshire and South Carolina have waited until the last week to make their final
decisions. McLaughlin is right: "It is foolhardy for any campaign to suggest
that voter positions are already solidified at this stage of the cycle."
UPDATE - Chris "The Fix" Cillizza reports a contrary view:
As Washington Post polling director Jon Cohen pointed out to The Fix, most respondents to these exit polls may not want to admit that they made up their minds months ago, instead of at the end of the campaign after thoughtful consideration of the issues and the candidates. Second, the way the exit poll question is asked tends to favor late-deciding responses. The options often offered to respondents are "today," "in the last three days," "in the last week," "in the last month" or "before that" -- three "late-decider" options and two "early decider" options, a fact that may subtly influence voters to choose a late option even if they made their decision much earlier.
Consider also that a lot of those final late "decisions" were to stick with the candidate the voter preferred all along. Having said that, and allowing for the possibility of the sort of measurement error that Cohen talks about, these exit poll results are still generally consistent with this history of these early primaries, in which voter preferences sometimes shift significantly in campaign's final weeks (see, for example, the NCPP analysis linked to below by commenter Andrew).
Finally, note that both Cillizza and Ryan Sager (via Kaus) point out that while the Thompson/McLaughlin memo cites a Diageo/Hotline poll showing Republican discontent with the GOP field, the same survey included Thompson as a candidate. The question about dissatisfaction with the candidates followed the trial-heat ballot.
Typo corrected.
By Mark Blumenthal on September 4, 2007 8:19 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new ABC News national survey (story, results) of 1,011 adults (conducted 8/24 through 8/28) finds:
- 48% say they would rather have Sen. Hillary Clinton as a "traveling companion" if driving across country; 39% say former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
- "If you worked in a business office;" 45% say they would rather have Sen. Hillary Clinton "running the company;" 42% say Giuliani.
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 4, 2007 3:49 PM
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By Eric Dienstfrey
A new EPIC/MRA statewide survey of likely primary voters in Michigan (conducted 8/26 through 8/31) finds:
- Among 408 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney edges out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (25% to 23%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 16%, Sen. John McCain at 15%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
- Among 396 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (40% to 21%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 16%, Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 5%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
View all Michigan Primary poll data at Pollster.com:
By Eric Dienstfrey on September 4, 2007 3:34 PM
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By Mark Blumenthal
For those interested, I'll be interviewed for a brief segment on MSNBC this morning shortly after 10:15 eastern time. Sorry for the late notice.
By Mark Blumenthal on September 4, 2007 2:14 PM
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