Pollster.com

September 21, 2007

POLL: Courier-Journal Kentucky Gubernatorial

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Louisville Courier-Journal statewide survey of 667 likely voters in Kentucky (conducted 9/13 through 9/18) finds Democrat Steve Beshear leading Republican Gov. Ernier Fletcher (55% to 35%) in a gubernatorial general election match-up.

Kentucky Gubernatorial poll data:

By Eric Dienstfrey on September 21, 2007 6:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Edwards: 2-3 Points Ahead or Tied

By Mark Blumenthal

Candidates are usually reticent when talking about their standing in the polls, but thanks to an alert reader, we can pass on some comments about the Iowa polls from Democrat John Edwards, made during a podcast interview with CNN's Lisa Goddard (starts about two thirds through):

Goddard: I asked the former Senator about his recent slip to second in polls in Iowa.

Edwards: Now my honest assessment is there are hundreds of polls, unfortunately for the world, in Iowa. I think the bottom line is that Iowa is very competitive. It's been very competitive all along.

You know, I began with a very small lead, you know, two, three points and we've stayed in the same general area. I'm either slightly ahead or we're roughly tied. It's been that way the entire time, there's really not been any change and I expect that will maintain itself at least for some period of time.

But the bottom line is, polls go up and down and that will continue until caucus day in January.

Of course, as with any good spin, we have no way of knowing exactly what polls he is reading. He could be talking about his campaign's internal polls or simply characterizing the "hundreds" of polls" in the public domain (there aren't quite that many, but we know what he means -- more details on those polls here ). It is also arguably in Edwards' interest to lower rather than raise expectations regarding his position in Iowa. So I am not entirely sure what to make of this. Still... interesting.

By Mark Blumenthal on September 21, 2007 5:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: PPIC California Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Public Policy Institute of California statewide survey of 2,003 adults in California (conducted 9/4 through 9/11) finds:

• Among 455 registered Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leands Sen. Barack Obama (41% to 23%) in a statwide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 14%.

• Among 353 registered Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 22%) leads former Gov. Mitt Romney and former Sen. Fred Thompson (both at 16%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 15%.

We will post full results as soon as they are available.

By Eric Dienstfrey on September 21, 2007 5:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Word Association

By Mark Blumenthal

The new Pew Research Center survey that we linked to yesterday includes a fascinating set of "word associations" that voters make with the Democratic and Republican candidates. To follow up on my discussion earlier in the week about the worth of primary polls, these early assessments can tell us more about the evolving perceptions of the Democratic candidates than the trial heat preferences.

The campaigns are now focusing on the early states, to be sure, but the national news coverage reflects the messages that they are striving to communicate. The Pew summary and the graphic reproduced below provide an intriguing indicator of what voters are hearing:

See the full Pew report for a more complete summary of the data. I am struck by the remarkable the degree to which Democrats see Clinton as "tough" and "smart," but give Obama points for "energetic" and "optimistic."

Note the way this data dovetails with the apparent strategies of the two campaigns: This week Obama releases a new ad that embraces hope, optimism and bipartisanship. Meanwhile, Clinton releases a health care plan reflecting her "smart, pragmatic" side and, as Andrew Sullivan reminds us, "calls Cheney ‘Darth Vader.'"

The Washington Post's Jon Cohen has more here.

By Mark Blumenthal on September 21, 2007 3:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: SurveyUSA OH, KY, KS, AL General Election Match-ups

By Eric Dienstfrey

New SurveyUSA automated surveys of registered voters in Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas, and Alabama (conducted 9/14 through 9/16) find:

• Ohio (between 503 and 533 registered voters)
  Giuliani 48%, Clinton 47%
  Thompson 47%, Clinton 48%
  Romney 42%, Clinton 52%
  Giuliani 52%, Obama 39%
  Thompson 50%, Obama 42%
  Romney 46%, Obama 45%
  Giuliani 48%, Edwards 47%
  Thompson 43%, Edwards 452%
  Romney 36%, Edwards 56%

• Kentucky (between 542 and 541 registered voters)
  Giuliani 51%, Clinton 41%
  Thompson 50%, Clinton 45%
  Romney 46%, Clinton 46%
  Giuliani 54%, Obama 36%
  Thompson 54%, Obama 37%
  Romney 45%, Obama 43%
  Giuliani 50%, Edwards 43%
  Thompson 44%, Edwards 45%
  Romney 38%, Edwards 48%

• Results for Kansas and Alabama.

By Eric Dienstfrey on September 21, 2007 3:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Gallup Satisfaction with U.S., Clinton Front-Runner

By Eric Dienstfrey

Additional results from the most recent Gallup national survey of 1,010 adults (conducted 9/14 through 9/16) find:

• 31% are satisfied with "the way the nation is being governed;" 67% are dissatisfied.

• 63% of Republicans are satisfied with the way the nation is being goverened, while both 18% of Democrats and independents are satisfied.

And Gallup Poll's Editor in Chief Frank Newport asks, "Is Hillary Clinton a lock for the Democratic nomination?"

By Eric Dienstfrey on September 21, 2007 3:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Harris National Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Harris Interactive online survey of 2,372 adults nationwide (conducted 9/6 through 9/14) finds:

• Among 769 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (46% to 25%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 14%, former V.P. Al Gore at 9%.

• Among 504 likely Republican primary voters, former Sen. Fred Thompson narrowly leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (32% to 28%) in a national primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 11%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%.

• All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

By Eric Dienstfrey on September 21, 2007 12:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

September 20, 2007

POLL: Pew National Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Pew Research Center national survey of 1,501 adults (conducted 9/12 through 9/16) finds:

• Among 568 registered Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (42% to 25%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 14%.

• Among 467 registered Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (32% to 21%) in a national primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 15%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 6%.

• All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

View all National Primary poll data at Pollster.com: