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November 2, 2007

Halloween (Week) Leftovers

By Mark Blumenthal

Frank Newport blogs on the importance of immigration to Democrats and promises a new Gallup poll on the presidential race early next week.

Jonathan Martin blogs comments from Winthrop University professor Scott Huffman on the methodology of his recent poll of South Carolina.

Doyle McManus warns of the shaky predictive value of polls "purporting to say who's winning the race."

Kathy Frankovic considers how religious faith will affect this year's presidential campaign.

Chris Cillizza parses some recent CNN poll tabulations of perceptions of Hillary Clinton by gender.

Margie Connolly examines the independents in a recent CBS News poll that expect to "weigh in on the selection of presidential nominees next year."

David Hill considers the political viability of the No Child Left Behind Act.

Mark Mellman reports results of two surveys on "looming crisis of long term care" (surveys were sponsored by Americans for Secure Retirement and Genworth Financial).

Chris Bowers ponders the subgroup shifts in the Democratic presidential race found in the latest Pew Research Center survey.

Carl Bialik questions (appropriately) another Zogby online survey about another online activity.

College senior Mara Gordon considers the implications of cell-phone only users excluded from national surveys.

And speaking of cell-phone-only households: The recent Pew Research Center survey used a combined sample of respondents interviewed by landline phone and cell-phone. They promise "a detailed analysis of the landline and cell phone samples in the coming weeks."

By Mark Blumenthal on November 2, 2007 8:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Emily's List Democratic Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new EMILY'S List survey (release, results) of 900 Democratic women likely primary voters in New Jersey, Georgia, and Arizona (conducted 10/16 through 10/22 by Garin Hart Yang (D) and The Feldman Group (D) ) finds:

• In the combined three-state sample, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (52% to 17%) while Edwards trails at 11%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

• When prompted with "Hillary Clinton voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq and has refused to apologize for her vote," 10% say it bothers them a great deal, 23% say somewhat, 22% say not very much, and 42% say not at all.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 2, 2007 6:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Winthrop/ETV South Carolina Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Winthrop/ETV statewide survey of likely primary voters in South Carolina (conducted 10/7 through 10/28) finds:

• Among 522 Republicans, former Sen. Fred Thompson (at 17.9%) runs slightly ahead of former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Gov. Mitt Romney (both at 16.5%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9.2%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 5.4%.

• Among 534 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (33% to 22.7%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 9.6%

• All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 2, 2007 3:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

November 1, 2007

POLL: Rasmussen Maryland Clinton vs.

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 500 likely voters in Maryland (conducted 10/24) tests Sen. Hillary Clinton against four Republican presidential candidates and finds:

Clinton 46%, Giuliani 41%
Clinton 47%, McCain 40%
Clinton 49%, Thompson 37%
Clinton 52%, Huckabee 31%

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 1, 2007 9:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: AP-Ipsos Birth Control

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new AP-Ipsos national survey (story, results) of 1,004 adults (conducted 10/23 through 10/25) finds 37% who prefer the public schools in their community to "provide birth control only to those students who have the consent of their parents;" 30% prefer the schools to provide it "to all students who want it" and 30% prefer the schools to "not provide birth control to any student."

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 1, 2007 7:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: PPP (D) North Carolina Senate

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Public Policy Polling (D) automated survey (story; results) of 795 likely general election voters in North Carolina (conducted 10/30) finds:

• 45% approve of the way Sen. Elizabeth Dole is handling her job; 36% disapprove.

• Dole leads State Sen. Kay Hagen (46% to 33%) in a statewide general election match-up for U.S. Senate.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 1, 2007 7:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Gore Revealed as Frontrunner?

By Mark Blumenthal

Earlier today, Zogby International released what it calls a national "blind bio" telephone poll of 527 "likely Democratic primary voters" that was sponsored by AlGore.org, an independent group dedicated to convincing former Vice President Gore to join the race for president.

Here's the gist of the results from the Zogby release:

When Democratic likely voters were given brief biographical descriptions of the top three Democratic candidates - New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards - along with the biography of Gore, the former Vice President won 35% support, while Clinton won 24%, Obama won 22% and Edwards trailed with 10% support.

The key twist here is that the question provided "brief biographical descriptions" of candidates, but not the names of the candidates (something less than obvious in the spiffy animated graphic of the poll results produced by AlGore.org). That practice is not unheard of, but is typically used by internal campaign polls to test campaign messages. This sort of test can be a powerful tool, though the results are very sensitive to the descriptions tested. Were these fair? Fortunately, Zogby provided the full text:

• 35% - Candidate A (Gore) is an experienced candidate from the South who has been Vice President of the United States and a US Senator. This person has won several awards, including an Oscar, a Grammy, and an Emmy for his documentary about global climate change. This person has won the Nobel Peace prize and is recognized as an international authority on foreign policy, energy, the environment, and technology. This candidate has opposed the Iraq war from the beginning.

• 24% - Candidate B (Clinton) is a candidate with roots in the South and the Midwest, but is currently a US Senator from a Northeastern State. This candidate is well known for work on many domestic issues, including education, children's issues, and health care. As a US Senator, this candidate voted to authorize the Iraq war. This candidate is critical of how the war has been handled by the current administration.

• 22% - Candidate C (Obama)is a first-term US Senator from the Midwest who has emphasized efforts to reach out to include in the political process many people who are disaffected and unused to involvement in politics. This candidate brings a fresh face to Washington and draws huge crowds to campaign rallies. This candidate has opposed the Iraq war from the beginning.

• 10% - Candidate D (Edwards)is a former US Senator from a southern state. This candidate also has run as a Vice Presidential candidate in the past. This candidate champions health care and education for the poor, and has experience running a national political campaign. As a US Senator, this candidate voted to authorize the Iraq war but has since said it was wrong to vote for authorization.

• 10% Not sure

Again, keep in mind that respondents were not told that Candidate A is Gore, Candidate B is Clinton and so on, although some presumably made that connection on their own. However, one could argue that a few pertinent facts that are missing. The gender and race of the candidates for one. Another is that the "work on domestic issues" for which Candidate B is "well known for" occurred when she was First Lady of the United States. The question also assumes that the only issue differences among the candidates worth noting are their positions on the Iraq war authorization. Readers will undoubtedly spot other issues.

What is really unusual about this survey is that campaign pollsters typically use descriptive paragraphs like this to test the potential of unknown candidates with the resources to become much better known (such as Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Mike Huckabee or even Ron Paul in Iowa or New Hampshire). Even then, I know of few campaign pollsters that go to the trouble of testing truly "blind" bios. Most include the real names to make the test as realistic as possible.

Of course, Hillary Clinton and Al Gore are two of the best known Democrats in the United States. Even on a recent CBS News survey that prompts respondents to say when they "have not heard enough to have an opinion," 92% of Democratic primary voters can rate Gore and 99% can rate Clinton. So the need for a "blind bio" serves little obvious purpose here, other than allowing the pollster to try to conceal the identity of "Candidate B."

A better test might involve a question like the following:

Suppose Al Gore decided to run for President. If the race for the Democratic party's nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice among Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Al Gore, and Barack Obama, who would you like to see nominated -- Clinton, Edwards, Gore, Obama, or someone else?

The good news is, that question actually appeared at the end of the same recent CBS News survey. And the results? "Were he to enter the race," as the CBS release puts it, "Al Gore could be a serious contender," running just five points behind Clinton (an advantage that is not quite statistically significant assuming the usual 95% confidence level).

These results suggest that a Gore candidacy would shake up the race and cut deeply into Clinton's current support. But "reveal" Gore "as frontrunner," as the AlGore.org poll claims about their poll? No. To do that, Gore might have to convince Senator Clinton to change her name to "Candidate B."

PS: The filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary is tomorrow. Opportunities to file for primaries in other states will remain open for some time, but as a practical matter, the window of opportunity for an actual Gore candidacy is closing fast.

Typos corrected.

By Mark Blumenthal on November 1, 2007 7:06 PM |