Pollster.com

December 1, 2007

"Outliers" for 11-30

By Mark Blumenthal

Andrew Sullivan sees a flaw in the composition of the Hunter College survey of gay, lesbian and bisexual voters (more here).

Jay Carney crunches the Rasmussen second choice numbers in Iowa.

Jennifer Agiesta looks at how likely Iowa caucus goers rate the importance of various issues and finds only an issue on which one candidate "break[s] out from the pack as the one voters' trust most: Sen. Hillary Clinton on health care."

Jay Cost looks at how the ratings for this week's CNN/YouTube debate stacks up against the other debates this year.

Joe Klein has a first person account of a Frank Luntz debate "dial group" in Florida.

Jonathan Martin and Charles Babbington report that the curtain is rising on "Act Three" of the Republican IA/NH primary campaigns.

Doug Schoen asks who benefits most from a Huckabee surge in Iowa.

AAPOR's Nancy Mathiowetz considers the need for greater disclosure in the context of the controversial Zogby internet poll.

And you've probably seen this already, but The Caucus reports that the Clinton campaign "polled" the impact of a Barbara Streisand endorsement (via Sullivan and many others).

By Mark Blumenthal on December 1, 2007 3:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

November 30, 2007

Re: Frankovic on Iowa's "Challenge For Pollsters"

By Mark Blumenthal

Yesterday, I blogged about the possibility that the age estimates in the 2004 Iowa Caucus "entrance poll" may have understated the percentages of younger (under 45) voters. I also wondered if the poll also overstated the percentage of self-reported first time caucus goers (55% on the poll), as I assume past caucus participation to be related to age.

Well, we can confirm that past caucus participation is strongly related to age, thanks to Sarah Dutton at CBS News who ran the data from the 2004 exit poll for us. Here are the numbers:

Various surveys have shown strong relationships between Democratic vote preference and both age (Obama does better among voters under 45) and past-caucus history (Edwards does better with past caucus goers). The data above show these two characteristics are strongly related to each other. And here's the important part: Not only are we uncertain about what the "right" mix of age and past caucus experience will be on January 3, 2008, but the strong likelihood of non-response bias toward younger participants in the 2004 entrance poll should make us treat the estimates of both characteristics from that sample "with caution" (as Kathy Frankovic put it).

Incidentally, the CNN table of the 2004 entrance poll result appears to mislabel the question about past caucus participation. The question was whether voters had attended any caucus before [Update - complete text is: "Before tonight, had you ever attended an Iowa Democratic presidential caucus?"]. So a "no" indicated a first-time caucus-goer.

Typo corrected

By Mark Blumenthal on November 30, 2007 9:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Fox New Hampshire Survey

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics statewide survey (Dem story, GOP story, results) of 1,000 likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 11/27 through 11/29) finds:

• Among 500 Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads Sen. John McCain (29% to 21%) in a statewide primary; former Mayor Rudy Giuliani trails at 19%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 7%.

• Among 500 Democrats and thsoe who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (30% to 23%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 17%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 12%.

• All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 30, 2007 8:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: SurveyUSA Massachusetts '08 Match-ups

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 540 registered voters in Massachusetts (conducted 11/9 through 11/11) finds:

• Presidential Match-ups:
  
  Clinton 50%, McCain 45%
  Clinton 54%, Giuliani 40%
  Clinton 59%, Romney 35%
  Clinton 61%, Huckabee 31%
  
  McCain 47%, Obama 44%
  Obama 46%, Giuliani 44%
  Obama 54%, Romney 37%
  Obama 57%, Huckabee 27%

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 30, 2007 7:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen New Hampshire GOP Primary

By Eric Dienstfrey

A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 881 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 11/29) finds former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 34%) leading former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (both at 15%) and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (14%) in a statewide primary; Rep. Ron Paul trails at 8%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 3%.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 30, 2007 6:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Iowa: Obama Trending Up

By Mark Blumenthal

Today's new ARG poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa generally confirms the trend reported by other polls that we see in our Iowa chart. Barack Obama has been rising in recent weeks, while Hillary Clinton's support -- which had been trending upward since the summer -- has mostly leveled off.

Keep in mind that the regression based trend lines on our charts are more conservative by design. As Professor Franklin frequently reminds us, that characteristic helps us isolate real changes while filtering out the short term "noise" from differences in methodology or simple sampling error.

Another lower tech way to try to see trends amidst the noise of differing methods is to do what I call "apples- to-apples" averages of comparable polls. In this case, ARG, Rasmussen and Strategic Vision have all fielded surveys in the last week or so, as well as earlier in the month. Whatever qualms we have about their methodologies, their surveys are done the same way each time and are at least helpful in spotting trends. And while the change is relatively small, they are essentially consistent: All three show small increases for Obama. On average, the three surveys indicate a three point gain for Obama and a one-point drop for Clinton.

Has Barack Obama "moved ahead" of Hillary Clinton? Neither our chart, this "apples-to-apples" average nor any of the polls individually (if we consider sampling error), shows that yet, but the trend is clearly moving in his direction.

By Mark Blumenthal on November 30, 2007 6:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (9)

Dueling SC Results

By Mark Blumenthal

After we posted the results from the Clemson University Palmetto poll of South Carolina on Wednesday, a reader noticed the exceptionally high undecided percentage reported for Democrats (49%) and concluded that "something's wrong with these numbers" (the Republican sample also showed a higher than average 28% in the undecided column). Charles Franklin responded with a comment worth promoting:

Nothing's "wrong"-- the poll just let huge numbers of people say they hadn't made up their mind!

The release quotes the question wording as "If the 2008 presidential primary in South Carolina were held today, for whom would you vote?"

There is no indication whether the question LISTED the candidate choices or forced respondents to think of names on their own. That would make a difference. Further there was apparently no follow up to get "leaners" accounted for.

This is a good example of the kind of academic poll (commercial pollsters seem to NEVER do this) that deliberately chooses to allow respondents to remain"undecided". The academics who do this seem to believe that this is more revealing of how unsettled the preferences are and is therefore a more realistic view of how malleable opinion is. I see their point, but it makes the poll virtually unusable because it is so far out of line with more conventional polls that push for a direction of preference.

Given how volatile preferences can be once the voting actually begins, the academics may have a good point, but the 50% undecided isn't very helpful for knowing how opinion is forming.

Today, of course, we have new set of South Carolina surveys from the American Research Group which shows only 11% in the undecided category among Democrats (10%) among Republicans. This survey shows Hillary Clinton with a 24-point lead (45% to 21%), while the Palmetto poll showed things much closer between the top candidates (Clinton 19%, Obama 17%).

Now, sampling "likely voters" in the low turnout South Carolina primary is nearly as challenging as in Iowa, and there are many potential explanations for this difference beyond the likelihood that the Palmetto poll prompted for undecided while the ARG surveys do not. However, even if we take both sets of numbers at face value, they may be telling us that the Clinton lead in that state is soft; that voters there who currently prefer Senator Clinton (when pushed) are softer in their support than those leaning to Obama or the other candidates.

All of this gets at a point I've made several times recently: A preference is not a final decision.

By Mark Blumenthal on November 30, 2007 5:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

POLL: American Research Group IA/NH/SC

By Eric Dienstfrey

Three new American Research Group statewide surveys of likely voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (conducted 11/26 through 11/29) finds:

• Among 600 Democrats in Iowa, Sen. Barack Obama edges out Sen. Hillary Clinton (27% to 25%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. John Edwards trails at 23%, Sen. Joe Biden at 8%. Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney narrowly leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (28% to 27%); former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 14%, Sen. John McCain and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani both at 9%.

• Among 600 Democrats in New Hampshire, Clinton leads Obama (34% to 23%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 17%. Among 600 Republicnas, Romney leads Giuliani (36% to 22%); Huckabee trails at 13%, McCain at 11%.

• Among 600 Democrats in South Carolina, Clinton leads Obama 45% to 21% while Edwards trails at 12%, Biden at 6%. Among 600 Republicans, Giuliani narrowly leads Romney (23% to 21%) while Huckabee trails at 18%, Thompson at 13%, McCain at 10%.

• All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

By Eric Dienstfrey on November 30, 2007 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

November 29, 2007