Suffolk
California
McCain 39, Romney 32 (release)
Deleware
Clinton 44, Obama 42... McCain 41, Romney 35
Missouri
Obama 44, Clinton 42... Huckabee 31, McCain 29, Romney 27
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 9:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
Gallup Poll
National
Clinton 48, Obama 41... McCain 44, Romney 24
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 9:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
Rasmussen Reports
New York
Clinton 52, Obama 34... McCain 49, Romney 30
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 8:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
WNBC/Marist
New York State
Clinton 54, Obama 38... McCain 61, Romney 24
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 7:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
Alabama
Clinton 46, Obama 41... McCain 38, Huckabee 30, Romney 20
Tennessee
Clinton 49, Obama 35... McCain 32, Romney 29, Huckabee 23
Missouri
McCain 32, Huckabee 29, Romney 28... Clinton 47, Obama 38
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBacks (0)
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV
Illinois
Dems: Obama 55, Clinton 24
Reps: McCain 43, Romney 20, Huckabee 15
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 9:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
InsiderAdvantage
Alabama
Dems: Clinton 46, Obama 40
Reps: McCain 37, Huckabee 35, Romney 14
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 2, 2008 9:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
WSMV-TV/Crawford Johnson & Northcott
Tennessee
Clinton 36, Obama 31... Huckabee 24, McCain 23, Romney 18
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 1, 2008 4:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
SurveyUSA/KCTV-TV/KSDK-TV
Missouri
Clinton 48, Obama 44... McCain 34, Romney 30, Huckabee 28
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 1, 2008 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)
I'm blogging from an airport with just enough time to like and block quote two helpful explanations of what the missing "cell phone only" households mean to the vast majority of surveys that do not attempt to interview Americans on their cell phones.
First, Wall Street Journal "Numbers Guy" Carl Bialik has a very clear, concise review of the central issues. He draws on conversations with both Jeff Jones of Gallup and Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center, the two organizations that have done the most significant political surveys of Americans over their cell phones. It is well worth reading in full if you are new to this issue. Bialik stresses that the evidence so far shows that the missing "cell onlys" have little impact on political survey results:
The impact of losing cellphone-only respondents, however, may be exaggerated. Their numbers aren't big enough to budge most poll results by more than a point or two, Gallup has found.
People who use only cellphones, on average, are younger, more likely to rent their homes and have lower incomes than their tethered-telephone peers. But once you adjust for age, cellphone-only users have similar political viewpoints. Although he thinks cellphones should be included, Jeffrey M. Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, asks, "It's still a lot of cost and effort, and what's the payoff?"
Meanwhile the Pew Research Center yesterday released another mega-study of the cell-phone-only issue. It's a must read for those who want all the nitty-gritty details. Here's the bottom line:
On key political measures such as presidential approval, Iraq policy, presidential primary voter preference, and party affiliation, respondents reached on cell phones hold attitudes that are very similar to those reached on landline telephones. Analysis of two separate nationwide studies shows that including interviews conducted by cell phone does not substantially change any key survey findings.
Update: Carl Bialik has much more on his blog, and also reminds me to link to the recent Public Opinion Quarterly special issue on cell phone surveys and my own series from last summer on the cell phones and political surveys (Part I and Part II).
By Mark Blumenthal on February 1, 2008 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
National
Dems: Clinton 47, Obama 37
Reps: McCain 48, Romney 20
By Eric Dienstfrey on February 1, 2008 2:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)