Pollster.com: April 6, 2008

April 11, 2008

"Outliers" for April 11

Bill McInturff will rejoin the McCain campaign as pollster, along with Ed Goeas and Linda DiVall (via Ambinder, see also Martin and Murray).

Kathy Frankovic sees little evidence of a "Limbaugh Effect" in exit polls.

Frank Newport considers the sources of George Bush's 28% approval rating (the number from the most recent Gallup poll and Charles Franklin's trend estimate).

Tom Holbrook illustrates the record of statewide polls in March, April May and June 2004 in predicting results in November.

Chuck Todd (citing Republican pollster Steve Lombardo) says John McCain holds a "faux lead" in national polls.

Will Marshall sees a security gap holding back the Democrats against John McCain.

Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira consider the political implications of a shrinking working class.

Paul Begala has "nothing but contempt" for Mark Penn.

Michael Crowley sees parallels between Mark Penn and Dick Morris.

The Harvard Crimson remembers Mark Penn's work as a pollster at Harvard and notes that both Penn and Geoff Garin covered politics for Crimson (via Ambinder).

Brian Schaffner plots Walmart and Pick-Up trucks by state to see how Pennsylvania compares.

By Mark Blumenthal on April 11, 2008 5:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)

Another Update: PA Results by Race, Education and Gender

By Mark Blumenthal

After posting results on Wednesday from the lastest Quinnipiac University surveys of Pennsylvania by race and education, I asked Quinnipiac pollster Doug Schwartz if he could break the white subgroups out by gender. Since their sample sizes of likely Democratic primary voters are relatively large (n=1,340-1,549 on the three most recent surveys), even relatively small subgroups in Pennsylvania like white college educated men and women (typically 12% and 13% of the Quinnipiac samples respectively) still yield at least 150 interviews.

These data are mostly consistent with my analysis on Wednesday. For example, the vote preference among non-college educated white men and women is currently right about where it was in mid to late February. However, it is apparent that Hillary Clinton does better among women than among men, even after controlling for education level. Numerically, Obama appears to do slightly better know among college educated women (46%) than in February (37-39%), although the difference is not quite big enough to be statistically significant given the smaller sample size.

The Hillary Clinton favorable ratings have been mostly stable since February. Although the table shows a numeric decrease in her favorable rating among college educated white men over the last few surveys, it is not quite large enough (given the sample sizes) to be statistically meaningful.

Barack Obama's favorable rating, however does show signs of change. His rating among white men without a college education have picked up significantly from 44% in February to 52% in mid-March to 60% on the most recent survey. Among other subgroups, Obama's favorable rating has been mostly flat.

By Mark Blumenthal on April 11, 2008 4:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

POLL: Zogby Pennsylvania Dems

By Eric Dienstfrey

Zogby/Newsmax

Pennsylvania
Clinton 47, Obama 43

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 11, 2008 3:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: The Daily Rasmussen

By Eric Dienstfrey

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 47, Clinton 44
McCain 47, Obama 44... McCain 48, Clinton 42

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 52 / 44
Clinton: 47 / 51
Obama: 51 / 47

Pennsylvania
Obama 47, McCain 39... Clinton 47, McCain 38

Louisiana
McCain 52, Obama 41... McCain 58, Clinton 36

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: The Daily Gallup

By Eric Dienstfrey

Gallup Poll

National
Obama 51, Clinton 42
Obama 46, McCain 43... Clinton 46, McCain 45

Also
Bush Job Approval at 28%, Lowest of His Administration; Video
Economic Ratings Close to Worst for 2008

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 11, 2008 1:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Bush Approval Falls to 28.3%

By Charles Franklin

President Bush's approval trend has taken a sharp downturn in recent weeks, to fall to a new low for the administration at 28.3%. This follows a lengthy period of stable approval at around 32-33%.

Recent polls from Gallup and AP/Ipsos put approval at 28%, a new low for the Gallup poll. Harris recently found approval at 26% while CBS News put approval at 28%. Pew similarly has approval at 28%, though the Diageo/Hotline result for registered voters (as opposed to adults in the other polls) has approval at 35%, the only recent poll over 30%.

While the President has taken a back seat to the primaries in recent months, his new approval slump reflects growing pessimism over the economy which has displaced the war in Iraq as the most important problem facing the country. Likewise the percent saying the nation is headed in the wrong direction has continued to grow in recent months, to a high of 81% in a recent CBS News poll.

Cross posted at Political Arithmetik

By Charles Franklin on April 11, 2008 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Temple Pennsylvania Dems

By Eric Dienstfrey

Temple University
Institute for Public Affairs

Pennsylvania
Clinton 47, Obama 41

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 11, 2008 10:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

April 10, 2008

POLL: AP-Ipsos National

By Eric Dienstfrey

AP-Ipsos

National end date 4/9 (previous end date 2/24)
Obama 46, Clinton 43 (Obama 46, Clinton 43)

McCain 45, Obama 45 (Obama 51, McCain 41)
Clinton 48, McCain 45 (Clinton 48, McCain 43)

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 10, 2008 3:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Lifetime Women's Opinion of Candidates

By Eric Dienstfrey

Lifetime/
Kellyanne Conway (R)/Celinda Lake (D)

National Women

"By a margin of two-to-one, women think Obama has been helped more than hurt by the media due to his race (41% versus 20%). Hispanic women stood out as especially likely to believe Obama has benefited from his race (49%); whereas African-American women were more apt to believe he has gotten the short end of the media stick (30%)."

"Hillary Clinton was the only candidate who registered a significant net change in public opinion since January: 26% of women surveyed said they like her less now compared to just 15% who said they like her more. Still, 55% said their opinion of Clinton has not changed. Women who said they like Clinton more now largely pointed to aspects of her personality (67%) — noting that she is tough or a fighter. Likewise, those whose opinion of her declined also pointed to her personal traits (67%) — namely saying that she is dishonest."

By Eric Dienstfrey on April 10, 2008 2:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)