One more in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with Chase Harrison, preceptor in survey research at Harvard University. Harrison describes his analysis of the accuracy of pre-election polls during the 2008 primaries.
By Mark Blumenthal on May 17, 2008 10:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Yet another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with Jeff Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll. Jones presented findings on the interviews Gallup has conducted by cell phone with Americans living in households with non landline phone service to supplement national surveys and polls conducted in four primary states.
Starting just after 2:00 on the video, Jones discusses the impact of those additional interviews on the general election matchups between the two Democratic contenders and John McCain. While the inclusion of cell phone only households makes little difference in the Clinton-McCain contest, it benefits Obama by a net four points: Without cell phone interviews, and weighted using Gallup's usual likely voter model, McCain would get 49% to Obama's 46% (clarification: this result combines six Gallup/USAToday surveys conducted so far during 2008). With the cell-phone interviews included, the result is Obama 48%, McCain 47%.
And don't miss the cameo appearance by ABC polling director Gary Langer.
By Mark Blumenthal on May 17, 2008 8:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one from Patrick Murray, director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University. His paper, co-authored by Monmouth University colleague Timothy MacKinnon, concerned an experiment with random digit dial (RDD) and registration based list sampling (RBS):
More on the pollster debate over RDD vs RBS sampling here and here.
By Mark Blumenthal on May 17, 2008 1:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with SurveyUSA's Jay Leve on why he values AAPOR:
By Mark Blumenthal on May 17, 2008 12:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with Sarah Dutton, deputy director of surveys for CBS News. Dutton discusses findings presented at the conference (and co-authored by CBS colleagues Jennifer De Pinto and Fred Backus) regarding the effects of race and gender of interviewers on primary polling on the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.
Dutton discusses these findings in the context of theories about the so-called Bradley-Wilder effect. I've written about that subject here and here. Politico's Daniel Libit's story today also reviews the debate over this issue during the 2008 primaries.
By Mark Blumenthal on May 17, 2008 12:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with outgoing AAPOR President Nancy Mathiowetz discussing her advice to pollsters and journalists on pre-election poll coverage and thoughts on pollster cooperation with the request for data from AAPOR's Special Committee on Primary Polls:
By Mark Blumenthal on May 17, 2008 12:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Another in my series of interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one with Michael Traugott, chair of AAPOR's Special Committee on 2008 Primary Polling:
Related - Politico's Daniel Libit also filed a story today that touches on AAPOR's special committee:
In the wake of New Hampshire’s polling glitch, AAPOR convened a task force to study what had gone awry. Though its report has not been finalized, the task force’s head, University of Michigan professor Michael Traugott, says the evidence has yet to point to any “smoking gun.” [...]
AAPOR had hoped to publish the task force findings before this weekend’s convention, but Traugott says the work has been stalled by the hesitancy of pollsters to submit their methods and practices for peer review. He expects to report by mid-to-late summer, providing enough time before the general election for pollsters to tweak their methodology or improve their voter-screening questions.
“It does make for a challenge when you have public pollsters who won’t share their methods appropriately with others,” says Rob Daves, a past AAPOR president. “Science is based on transparency, and I’m not just talking about social science.”
By Mark Blumenthal on May 16, 2008 11:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Kentucky
Clinton 65, Obama 29
Oregon
Obama 50, Clinton 45
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 16, 2008 1:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (31) | TrackBacks (0)
SurveyUSA
New Mexico
Sen: Udall 60, Pearce 36... Udall 61, Wilson 35
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 16, 2008 1:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
Gallup Poll
National
Obama 48, Clinton 44
McCain 47, Obama 45... Clinton 48, McCain 45
Rasmussen Reports
National
Obama 48, Clinton 42
McCain 45, Obama 45... Clinton 45, McCain 44
Maine
Obama 51, McCain 38... Clinton 51, McCain 38
Sen: Collins 52, Allen 42
Washington
Obama 51, McCain 40... Clinton 47, McCain 42
By Eric Dienstfrey on May 16, 2008 1:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)
Another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one on the topic of what to make of survey non-response rate from one of the foremost experts on the topic: Professor Robert Groves of the University of Michigan:
By Mark Blumenthal on May 15, 2008 10:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Another in series of brief interviews conducted at this week's AAPOR Conference, this one on the continuing growth of call phone only households with Steven Blumberg of the Division of Health Interview Statistics of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS):
Blumberg discusses the latest NCHS report on the continuing growth in cell-phone-only households released yesterday. The report's money quote (and chart):
Preliminary results from the July-December 2007 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) indicate that nearly one out of every six American homes (15.8%) had only wireless telephones during the second half of 2007. In addition, more than one out of every eight American homes (13.1%) received all or almost all calls on wireless telephones despite having a landline telephone in the home.
By Mark Blumenthal on May 15, 2008 10:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Unfortunately, we had a bit of an audio mishap with this first interview from Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll and also AAPOR's Conference Chair for 2008. The hand-held microphone was not connected properly, so you will hear a bit more ambient sound than is optimal, but Newport's answers are clear.
Also, a verbal typo: AAPOR holds a conference, not a convention. The cause of the audio glitch (an errant adapter) slowed the pace of interviews today, but I have a few more (with better audio) that I'll be uploading shortly.