Pollster.com

May 18, 2008 - May 24, 2008

May 24, 2008

POLL: Newsweek National

Newsweek
Survey of 1,205 registered voters, 608 registered voters that identify or lean Democratic, interviews conducted 5/21-22 (article, results; via TPM).

National

Among Registered Voters:
Vote Preference:
Obama 46, McCain 46
Clinton 48, McCain 44

Favorable/Unfavorable:
Obama 55/40
Clinton 53/43
McCain 54/40

Among Registered/Dem-Dem Leaners:
Obama 50, Clinton 42

By Mark Blumenthal on May 24, 2008 7:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (66)

May 23, 2008

Before the Long Weekend "Outliers"

By Mark Blumenthal

Chris Bowers averages recent polls to create a "combined Obama Clinton" electoral map.

Marc Ambinder questions Bowers' logic of taking the best result (of Obama-McCain and Clinton-McCain polls) in each state, but says "the folks at VoteBoth are touting" it.

Charlie Cook looks at the poll averages and sees stability pointing to a close outcome in November.

Brenden Nyhan, citing Tom Holbrook's analysis, sees some value in presidential horse-race polls in May (via Crowley).

Gary Langer says John McCain's age is "an undeniable negative" with voters.

John Sides see a "leftward drift" in Jewish support for Democratic presidential candidates since 1988.

Brian Schaffner plots the Obama spreadsheet against reality.

Jay Cost charts Barack Obama's primary vote coalition.

Poblano shares his wish list for state presidential polling.

Tom Jensen sees differences in the racial composition of the North Carolina electorate using exit polls and voter files, also passes along the story of an RDD poll that sampled a talk radio call-in line.

Mark Memmott thought Tuesday was a "pretty good day for pollsters."

Alexis Madrigal maps the price of gas by county (via Sullivan)

Chris Sullentrop reports someone is polling Libertarians about potential candidates (including Tucker Carlson?) for the Libertarian nomination (via Gillespie via Sullivan).

By Mark Blumenthal on May 23, 2008 5:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

POLL: Times/KTLA Campaign/Same-Sex Marriage

By Eric Dienstfrey

Los Angeles Times/KTLA
Survey of 834 adults and 705 registered voters in California, interviews conducted May 20-21, 2008 (Same-sex marriage article, results; presidential campaign article, results)

California

Among Registered Voters:
Obama 47, McCain 40
Clinton 43, McCain 40

Among All Adults:
As you may know, last week the California Supreme Court ruled that the California Constitution requires that same-sex couples be given the same right to marry that opposite-sex couples have. Based on what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the California Supreme Court's decision last week to allow same-sex marriage in California?

41% Approve
52% Disapprove

Among Registered Voters:
As you may also know, A proposed amendment to the state's Constitution that may appear on the November ballot would reverse the court's decision and reinstate a ban on same-sex marriage. The amendment would state that marriage is only between a man and a woman. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against the amendment?

54% For
35% Against

By Eric Dienstfrey on May 23, 2008 5:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

Programming Help Needed

By Mark Blumenthal

Are you a programmer skilled in some combination of PythonSQL, CherryPy, R-Statistics or Flash Graphics? If so, are you also a student looking for a summer gig or just someone looking to pick up some part-time freelance projects? Would you like to help Pollster.com be all that it can be?

If so, we'd love to hear from you. To be clear, we do not have a full-time position to fill. Rather, we are seeking part-time help, especially over the summer months, with several development projects. If you're interested, please send a resume and email describing your abilities and availability to questions at pollster dot com (please use the subject heading "Programming Help").

By Mark Blumenthal on May 23, 2008 5:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

POLL: BRC Arizona

By Eric Dienstfrey

Behavior Research Center

Arizona
McCain 50, Obama 39... McCain 51, Clinton 36

By Eric Dienstfrey on May 23, 2008 4:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Eisinger: Reading the Polls Myopically

By Guest Pollster

Today's Guest Pollster contribution comes from Robert M. Eisinger, a political science professor at Lewis & Clark College and the author of The Evolution of Presidential Polling (Cambridge University Press).

There are few things more dangerous to sensationalized journalism than when anyone over-analyzes poll data. A recent Quinnipiac Poll shows Senator Clinton defeating Senator McCain in Ohio and Florida, but Senator Obama losing such head-to-head match-ups against Senator McCain. A SurveyUSA poll shows similar results in Missouri and North Carolina. Clinton defeats McCain, but Obama does not. These polls, it is argued, are worrisome for the Obama campaign, and serve as evidence among some Clinton supporters that she is a stronger candidate in swing states.

Beware. Poll answers, regardless of the question, must be placed in some context. The absence of at least one follow-up question may have yielded an interesting context from which to interpret the head-to-head answers provided. Imagine, for example, that the pollsters asked the following question:

"Imagine that Senator Obama eventually becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, and Senator Clinton enthusiastically campaigns for him. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?"

One could even imagine tweaking the question by revising "Senator Clinton," "the Clinton campaign," "Senator Obama," and "the Obama campaign." Such questions are reasonable one to ask, especially when one is reminded that both Senators Obama and Clinton have stated that they would endorse the Democratic nominee. There is good reason to believe that Senator Clinton would be magnanimous and enthusiastically support the Democratic ticket. Similarly, there is no reason to conclude that the inclusion of this question would necessarily result in poll numbers that would greatly assist Senator Obama; it is quite conceivable that some of Senator Clinton's supporters do not want to a President Obama under any circumstance, and that Independent voters may be turned off by Senator Clinton's endorsement of anyone.

No doubt the Obama campaign is not rejoicing after reading the poll data. They would prefer numbers that show Senator Obama defeating Senator McCain in all states at all times. Senator Obama wants to win the swing states, and right now, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri are not securely in the Democratic camp.

But there is something noticeably absent about asking about a viable scenario in which the Democratic presidential candidates, especially Senator Clinton, unite behind the winner, even if the nominee is Senator Obama.

[Typos corrected]

By Guest Pollster on May 23, 2008 3:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)