Pollster.com

June 15, 2008 - June 21, 2008

 

June 20, 2008

Radio Daze "Outliers"

By Mark Blumenthal

Carl Bialik reveals the mysterious methodology of America's most familiar poll.

Kathy Frankovic asks...what's the right age for a President?

Frank Newport compares George Bush and Richard Nixon.

Jennifer Agiesta sees a rebound in Hillary Clinton's ratings.

PPP teases a Michigan poll.

And few personal updates:

First, blogging time was light today because of two radio interviews. I taped a segment with NPR's Scott Simon on tomorrow's Weekday Edition Saturday. They tell me it's likely to air sometime between 8 and 8:30 am Eastern time.

I was also part of the National Journal On Air program on XM Radio's POTUS '08 channel. It aired earlier this afternoon, but audio should be posted here on NationalJournal.com.

I'll also be attending the Personal Democracy Forum in New York next week. If you're there, I will be part of the "Idea Market" on Tuesday afternoon. Hope to see you!

By Mark Blumenthal on June 20, 2008 7:01 PM | | Comments (0)

POLL: Newsweek National

By Eric Dienstfrey

Newsweek

National (6/18-19)
Obama 51, McCain 36

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 5:02 PM | | Comments (13) | TrackBacks (0)

A "Flaw" in the Iowa Poll?

By Mark Blumenthal

Earlier today, commenter "axt113" noticed what he or she described as a "flaw" in the just released Iowa poll from SurveyUSA: "It has McCain winning the AA vote 55% to 45." I was distracted and nearly let it pass, but then our friend Ben Smith blogged a similar though subsequently hedged comment:

I'm sure it's a very small sample -- this is a poll of Iowa -- but it does raise the red flag when a survey shows Obama losing African-Americans to McCain.

UPDATE: I should have been clearer. It raises a red flag about the poll. Though really, it's mostly just another reason not to read the cross-tabs when they involve tiny, perhaps single-digit, samples.

The problem, which Ben alludes to, is that the weighted value of the African-American subgroup in the Iowa poll is just 2%. If we assume (for the moment) that the black respondents had a weight of 1.0, then those African-American results are based on a sample of 8-12 respondents. Pollsters typically have to weight up the African-American percentage in national surveys, since the black population is typically clustered in urban centers where response rates are lower (causing a non-response bias that needs to be corrected with weighting). I have no idea if such an adjustment would be necessary in Iowa, but if so, it would make that tiny subgroup even tinier.

I won't even bother to try to calculate the "margin of error" for 10 respondents. Some statisticians believe that the assumptions of the formulas break down at that level, rendering the calculations largely meaningless. For that reason, Many pollsters -- including every firm I've ever worked for -- have a policy of never releasing crosstabs to a client with a crosstab of less than 100 or less than 50 interviews (or whatever number they feel comfortable with).

Does the fact that 10 interviews produced a screwy result indicate a flawed poll? Not at all. That's the point of random sampling. The more interviews you do, the less error you get. Pull out any subgroup of 10 and you're bound to see very screwy and utterly "random" results. The larger the sample gets, the more those screwy (and offsetting) results cancel out.

If anything is flawed, it is arguably the practice of releasing cross-tab results based on such a small subgroup, though in fairness there are trade-offs here. SurveyUSA, has a mostly standard set of crosstabs that are sometimes very tiny. They do this (I assume) partly because it simplifies their programming tasks and partly because their format includes "row percents" that tell us about the weighted value of their standard demographics measures (race, age, gender, party). In other words, people like me badger pollsters to tell us the demographic composition of their samples. By including smaller subgroups in their standard table, SurveyUSA provides an answer as standard procedure.

Having said all that, Mike_in_CA raises a different but very good question regarding this Iowa poll:

[W]hy would SUSA poll Iowa right now, in the midst of catastrophic flooding? One has to wonder how many people have been forced out of their homes, away from their telephones. Probably not the best time to poll a state.

I do not know the answer, though I would be curious about the likely political skew that might result from those not available to be surveyed? Is it more urban, more rural? The floods appear to be affecting the eastern portions of the state. Are those typically more Democratic or Republican? Readers with knowledge of Iowa are encourage to comment.

By Mark Blumenthal on June 20, 2008 4:54 PM | | Comments (9)

POLL: SurveyUSA California

By Eric Dienstfrey

SurveyUSA

California
Obama 53, McCain 41

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 3:57 PM | | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Latino Decisions National

By Eric Dienstfrey

Latino Decision
Pacific Market Research/
University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura

National Latinos**
Obama 63, McCain 24
Florida: Obama 43, McCain 42
AZ, CO, NM and NV: Obama 57, McCain 31

**Latino Decisions surveyed 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Registered voters were identified using the complete voter registration databases for each state, and then merged with a Spanish-surname list from the U.S. Census. Phone calls were then randomly made to the phone list of registered voters.

All respondents are verified to be Latino, and verified to be registered voters. The survey was conducted by telephone, and available in English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the Latino respondent.

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 3:46 PM | | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen Nevada

By Eric Dienstfrey

Rasmussen Reports

Nevada
McCain 45, Obama 42

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 1:54 PM | | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Daily Tracking

By Eric Dienstfrey

Gallup Poll

National
Obama 46, McCain 44

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 48, McCain 44

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 1:52 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: USAToday/Gallup National

By Eric Dienstfrey

USA Today/Gallup

National
Obama 50, McCain 44

** This survey is an entirely different sample from the Gallup Daily Tracking surveys.

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 1:50 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: SurveyUSA Iowa

By Eric Dienstfrey

SurveyUSA

Iowa
Obama 49, McCain 45

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 10:34 AM | | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Rasmussen New Hampshire

By Eric Dienstfrey

Rasmussen

New Hampshire
Obama 50, McCain 39
Sen: Shaheen (D) 53, Sununu (R-i) 39

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 9:59 AM | | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: SurveyUSA IN-09

By Eric Dienstfrey

SurveyUSA

Indiana CD-09
Hill (D-i) 51, Sodrel (R) 40, Schansberg (L) 4

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 9:50 AM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: InsiderAdvantage Georgia

By Eric Dienstfrey

InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition

Georgia
McCain 44, Obama 43, Barr 6

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 20, 2008 7:57 AM | | Comments (17) | TrackBacks (0)

June 19, 2008

POLL: Rasmussen Colorado

By Eric Dienstfrey

Rasmussen Reports

Colorado
Obama 43, McCain 41
Sen: Udall (D) 49, Shaffer (R) 40

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 19, 2008 4:33 PM | | Comments (10) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Voter/Consumer Kentucky

By Eric Dienstfrey

Voter/Consumer Research (R-McConnell)

Kentucky
McCain 50, Obama 31
Sen: McConnell (R-i) 50, Lunsford (D) 39

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 19, 2008 3:59 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

POLL: Fox National

By Eric Dienstfrey

FOX News/
Opinion Dynamics
(story, results)

National
Obama 45, McCain 41
Obama 42, McCain 39, Nader 4, Barr 2
Generic: Democrat 42, Republican 35
Obama/Clinton 48, McCain/Romney 41

By Eric Dienstfrey on June 19, 2008 3:07 PM |