June 28, 2008
POLL: Rasmussen Texas
Rasmussen Reports
6/25/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Texas
McCain 48, Obama 39
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 48, Noriega (D) 35
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 28, 2008 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)
June 22, 2008 - June 28, 2008
June 27, 2008
POLL: SurveyUSA Ohio
SurveyUSA
6/20-22/08; 580 LV, 4.2%
Ohio:
Obama 48, McCain 46
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 27, 2008 2:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Daily Tracking (6/27)
Gallup Poll
National:
Obama 44, McCain 44
Rasmussen Reports
National:
Obama 49, McCain 45
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 27, 2008 2:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)
Riehle: Hierarchical Vote Analysis
Today's Guest Pollster article comes from Thomas Riehle, a Partner of RT Strategies.
If it were a different month on the calendar - say, October - the Obama campaign might be concerned to see that the groups most likely to be truly undecided, not leaning even a little toward Obama or McCain, comprise some voters he must be counting on:
- Women (21% undecided), women ages 40-64 (24%), women ages 65 and older (25%), women with less than a 4-year college degree (24%), and
- Registered voters in the Northeast (20%) and Great Lakes (20%).
Moreover, no one at the Obama campaign can be happy to see that the vote is currently tied among women with a college degree or more (43% Obama - 42% McCain) - highly educated women having become one of the most reliably Democratic groups in the electorate. Obama may start to win back support from among the relatively large group of McCain supporters currently to be found among women who voted for Clinton in Democratic primaries or caucuses (25% now support McCain), college-educated Clinton primary voters (28% McCain), moderate or conservative Clinton primary voters (23%) - but right now, those are some significant defections.
The calendar says June, not October, and undecided voters eventually will make up their minds. All in good time. For now, the McCain camp and Obama's camp are looking for indications of subtle trends moving in the early stages of the general election. For that kind of tracking, many campaigns use a tool called the "Hierarchical Vote." It divides support into 7 categories, from most pro-McCain to most pro-Obama, and tracks movement from one category to another across the 7 categories of support. Tracking changes month-to-month in the Hierarchical Vote overall among all voters (and within 50 or more subgroups) gives a campaign the insight needed to focus resources on the groups who are ready to move right now.
On the Cook Political Report website, you will find posted a Hierarchical Vote analysis from the past four Cook Political Report / RT Strategies polls (March through June). I hope you find it a unique and useful way to delve under the familiar topline vote totals and see what's really going on as we approach Independence Day. We'll keep updating this Hierarchical Vote table as Election Day approaches - just as the campaigns will do. Please let me know what you think and what you learn in reviewing these results.
By Guest Pollster on June 27, 2008 1:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Rasmussen Kentucky
Rasmussen Reports
6/25/08; 500 LV, +/- 4.5%
Kentucky
McCain 51, Obama 35
Sen: McConnell (R-i) 48, Lunsford (D) 41
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 27, 2008 12:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Time Magazine National
Survey of 805 registered voters conducted by ABT-SRBI for Time Magazine, June 19-25, margin of sampling error +/- 3.5% (Time article; SRBI analysis, results).
National
Obama 43%, McCain 38% (w/o leaners)
Obama 47%, McCain 43% (w/ leaners)
"When undecided voters leaning towards Obama and McCain are accounted for, the race narrows to a mere 4 percentage points."
By Mark Blumenthal on June 27, 2008 7:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (22)
June 26, 2008
POLL: POS/SurveyUSA Kansas
SurveyUSA/
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/
Pat Roberts for Senate Campaign
6/22-23/08; 540 LV, +/- 4.2%
Kansas
McCain 50, Obama 39
Sen: Roberts (R-i) 51, Slattery (D) 34
_________________
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/
Pat Roberts for Senate Campaign
3/31-4/1/08; 500 LV, +/- 4.4%
Kansas
Sen: Roberts (R-i) 52, Slattery (D) 34
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 5:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Rasmussen Mississippi
Rasmussen Reports
6/24; 500 LV, +/- 4.5%
Mississippi
McCain 50, Obama 44
Sen (Special): Wicker (R-i): 48, Musgrove (D) 47
Sen (A): Cochran (R-i) 59, Fleming (D) 32
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 4:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Texas Lyceum
Texas Lyceum
6/12-20/08; 1,000 A, +/- 3.1%
Pres & Sen results of likely voters
Texas
McCain 43, Obama 38, Barr 1, Nader 1
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 38, Noriega (D) 36
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Cronkite-Eight Arizona
Cronkite-Eight
(Arizona State University/Eight-KAET-TV)
6/20-21/08; 175 RV, +/-7.4%
Arizona
McCain 38, Obama 28
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 2:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Franklin & Marshall National
Franklin & Marshall College/
Hearst-Argyle Television
6/16-22/08; 1501 RV +/- 2.5%
National
Obama 42, McCain 36
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 2:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Rasmussen Tennessee
Rasmussen Reports
6/24/08; 500 LV, +/- 4.5%
Tennessee
McCain 51, Obama 36
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 2:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)
POLL: Fairleigh Dickinson New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson University/PublicMind
6/17-22/08; 589 RV, MoSE 4%
New Jersey
Obama 49, McCain 33
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 45, Zimmer (R) 28
By Eric Dienstfrey on June 26, 2008 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
Party ID Wars 2008
My NationalJournal.com column, on the debate about the new LA Times Bloomberg poll and its composition in terms of party identification, is now posted.
On MSNBC's Hardball yesterday, my friend Chuck Todd made a point similar one I made in the column:
This is how [the LA Times/Bloomberg poll] matches other polls. Republican voters less inclined to call themselves Republicans. For instance, John McCain is down 12 points among independents. Why? Because more Republican voters don't want to say they're Republican, so they're saying they're independent. And more Democratic leaning independents and saying, "hey, I don't mind being called a Democrat right now."
So you're looking at that and you say, this is just an enthusiasm gap. Maybe [the Obama margin] is not 12, maybe it's 8, maybe it's not 15, but it's a lead.
The quoted section comes at the beginning of the clip. The whole segment is worth watching for Peter Hart's commentary both about the focus group he conducted in York Pennsylvania earlier this week, and his thoughts about polls and polling generally.
Update: I wrote extensively about the issue of weighting by party identification during the 2004 campaign, and virtually all of it is as relevant today as it was then. For those with questions, start with the first post below, and keep reading:
- Weighting by Party
- More on Party ID
- Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part I
- Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part II
- Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part III
- Why & How Pollsters Weight, Part IV
By Mark Blumenthal on June 26, 2008 11:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)