Pollster.com

June 22, 2008 - June 28, 2008

 

POLL: Rasmussen Texas


Rasmussen Reports
6/25/08; 500 LV, 4.5%

Texas
McCain 48, Obama 39
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 48, Noriega (D) 35


POLL: SurveyUSA Ohio


SurveyUSA
6/20-22/08; 580 LV, 4.2%

Ohio:
Obama 48, McCain 46


POLL: Daily Tracking (6/27)


Gallup Poll

National:
Obama 44, McCain 44

Rasmussen Reports

National:
Obama 49, McCain 45


Riehle: Hierarchical Vote Analysis

Topics: 2008 , Barack Obama , Cook Political Report , John McCain , Thomas Riehle

Today's Guest Pollster article comes from Thomas Riehle, a Partner of RT Strategies.

If it were a different month on the calendar - say, October - the Obama campaign might be concerned to see that the groups most likely to be truly undecided, not leaning even a little toward Obama or McCain, comprise some voters he must be counting on:

  • Women (21% undecided), women ages 40-64 (24%), women ages 65 and older (25%), women with less than a 4-year college degree (24%), and
  • Registered voters in the Northeast (20%) and Great Lakes (20%).

Moreover, no one at the Obama campaign can be happy to see that the vote is currently tied among women with a college degree or more (43% Obama - 42% McCain) - highly educated women having become one of the most reliably Democratic groups in the electorate. Obama may start to win back support from among the relatively large group of McCain supporters currently to be found among women who voted for Clinton in Democratic primaries or caucuses (25% now support McCain), college-educated Clinton primary voters (28% McCain), moderate or conservative Clinton primary voters (23%) - but right now, those are some significant defections.

The calendar says June, not October, and undecided voters eventually will make up their minds. All in good time. For now, the McCain camp and Obama's camp are looking for indications of subtle trends moving in the early stages of the general election. For that kind of tracking, many campaigns use a tool called the "Hierarchical Vote." It divides support into 7 categories, from most pro-McCain to most pro-Obama, and tracks movement from one category to another across the 7 categories of support. Tracking changes month-to-month in the Hierarchical Vote overall among all voters (and within 50 or more subgroups) gives a campaign the insight needed to focus resources on the groups who are ready to move right now.

On the Cook Political Report website, you will find posted a Hierarchical Vote analysis from the past four Cook Political Report / RT Strategies polls (March through June). I hope you find it a unique and useful way to delve under the familiar topline vote totals and see what's really going on as we approach Independence Day. We'll keep updating this Hierarchical Vote table as Election Day approaches - just as the campaigns will do. Please let me know what you think and what you learn in reviewing these results.


POLL: Rasmussen Kentucky


Rasmussen Reports
6/25/08; 500 LV, +/- 4.5%

Kentucky
McCain 51, Obama 35
Sen: McConnell (R-i) 48, Lunsford (D) 41


POLL: Time Magazine National


Survey of 805 registered voters conducted by ABT-SRBI for Time Magazine, June 19-25, margin of sampling error +/- 3.5% (Time article; SRBI analysis, results).

National
Obama 43%, McCain 38% (w/o leaners)
Obama 47%, McCain 43% (w/ leaners)

"When undecided voters leaning towards Obama and McCain are accounted for, the race narrows to a mere 4 percentage points."


POLL: POS/SurveyUSA Kansas


SurveyUSA/
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/
Pat Roberts for Senate Campaign
6/22-23/08; 540 LV, +/- 4.2%

Kansas
McCain 50, Obama 39
Sen: Roberts (R-i) 51, Slattery (D) 34

_________________

Public Opinion Strategies (R)/
Pat Roberts for Senate Campaign
3/31-4/1/08; 500 LV, +/- 4.4%

Kansas
Sen: Roberts (R-i) 52, Slattery (D) 34


POLL: Rasmussen Mississippi


Rasmussen Reports
6/24; 500 LV, +/- 4.5%

Mississippi
McCain 50, Obama 44
Sen (Special): Wicker (R-i): 48, Musgrove (D) 47
Sen (A): Cochran (R-i) 59, Fleming (D) 32


POLL: Texas Lyceum


Texas Lyceum
6/12-20/08; 1,000 A, +/- 3.1%
Pres & Sen results of likely voters

Texas
McCain 43, Obama 38, Barr 1, Nader 1
Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 38, Noriega (D) 36


POLL: Cronkite-Eight Arizona


Cronkite-Eight
(Arizona State University/Eight-KAET-TV)
6/20-21/08; 175 RV, +/-7.4%

Arizona
McCain 38, Obama 28


POLL: Franklin & Marshall National


Franklin & Marshall College/
Hearst-Argyle Television
6/16-22/08; 1501 RV +/- 2.5%

National
Obama 42, McCain 36


POLL: Rasmussen Tennessee


Rasmussen Reports
6/24/08; 500 LV, +/- 4.5%

Tennessee
McCain 51, Obama 36


POLL: Fairleigh Dickinson New Jersey


Fairleigh Dickinson University/PublicMind
6/17-22/08; 589 RV, MoSE 4%

New Jersey
Obama 49, McCain 33
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 45, Zimmer (R) 28


Party ID Wars 2008

Topics: Barack Obama , John McCain , LA Times , LA Times/Bloomberg , National Journal , Party Weighing

My NationalJournal.com column, on the debate about the new LA Times Bloomberg poll and its composition in terms of party identification, is now posted.

On MSNBC's Hardball yesterday, my friend Chuck Todd made a point similar one I made in the column:

This is how [the LA Times/Bloomberg poll] matches other polls. Republican voters less inclined to call themselves Republicans. For instance, John McCain is down 12 points among independents. Why? Because more Republican voters don't want to say they're Republican, so they're saying they're independent. And more Democratic leaning independents and saying, "hey, I don't mind being called a Democrat right now."

So you're looking at that and you say, this is just an enthusiasm gap. Maybe [the Obama margin] is not 12, maybe it's 8, maybe it's not 15, but it's a lead.

The quoted section comes at the beginning of the clip. The whole segment is worth watching for Peter Hart's commentary both about the focus group he conducted in York Pennsylvania earlier this week, and his thoughts about polls and polling generally.

Update: I wrote extensively about the issue of weighting by party identification during the 2004 campaign, and virtually all of it is as relevant today as it was then. For those with questions, start with the first post below, and keep reading:


POLL: Quinnipiac/WSJ/WaPost Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin


Four surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, fielded June 17-24

Colorado: Obama 49 - McCain 44, n=1,351 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.7 percent

Michigan: Obama 48 - McCain 42, n=1,411 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6 percent

Minnesota: Obama 54 - McCain 37, n=1,572 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent

Wisconsin: Obama 52 - McCain 39, n=1,537 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent

Senate:
Colorado
: Udall (D) 48, Schaffer (R) 38
Minnesota: Coleman (R-i) 51, Franken (D) 41


POLL: SurveyUSA Missouri


SurveyUSA

Missouri
McCain 50, Obama 43


POLL: Daily Tracking (6/25)


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 45, McCain 45

Rasmussen

National
Obama 49, McCain 45

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain 55 / 43
Obama 55 / 43


POLL: PPP Michigan


Public Policy Polling (D)

Michigan
Obama 48, McCain 39
Sen: Levin (D-i) 54, Hoogendyk (R) 32


POLL: Rasmussen California


Rasmussen Reports

California
Obama 58, McCain 30


POLL: Rasmussen Nebraska


Rasmussen Reports

Nebraska
McCain 52, Obama 36
Sen: Johanns (R) 60, Kleeb (D) 33


POLL: Times/Bloomberg National


Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
(Times story, results; Bloomberg story)

National
Obama 49, McCain 37
Obama 48, McCain 33, Nader 4, Barr 3


Sign In Problem and New Polls


Apologies to all who have tried to leave comments today. Unfortunately, we are experiencing some sort of server glitch that is blocking both your ability to log-in to leave a comment and Eric's ability to post blog entries from our DC headquarters. We're working on the problem and hope to have it repaired soon.

We are able to update our tables and charts, which should reflect the new polls all out today:


Pollsters and the Net Roots

Topics: Barack Obama , Blogosphere , Clinton , John McCain , Pollsters

Sorry for the slow posting yesterday and later today as I am at the Personal Democracy Forum in New York, where I will be participating in a panel later this afternoon. Much of the content of this conference is "off topic" of polling and survey research, through there were some interesting and notable exceptions.

One unexpected example came from Elizabeth Edwards, wife of former Democratic nominee John Edwards, in a talk delivered via Skype web came (as thunderstorms had canceled her flight). Asked for her final advice, she cautioned the assembled bloggers and technologists against conducting "polls" on their web sites, warning that these non-scientific quick polls "just the people who go to these political blogs." Instead she urged the audience to send readers instead to surveys conducted by larger news organizations (though it was unclear whether she meant to send them as consumers of true survey research or as participants in the non-representative quickie polls conducted by these more mainstream web sites).

Campaign pollsters have rarely gotten involved in the technology side of their client's campaigns, but the evolution wrought by the Internet may be changing that. Pollsters are responsible for measuring attitudes among all voters, while the Internet side of campaigns tends to focus on donors and activists.

However, the sheer number of activists participating in the Obama campaign via the Internet has led that campaign to turn to "coding" and survey research to better listen to their supporters. Joe Rospars, new media director for the Obama campaign, reported that the campaign has "had to build tools the public doesn't see" to code and analyze the volume of comments they get from supporters via email and text messaging.

They have also conducted an email survey among those who have "interacted with" their field program. We have had "hundreds of thousands of responses," Rospars said, and have devoted staff to coding those responses for analysis.

Peter Daou, Internet director for Hillary Clinton for president, agreed that the Internet had been an important "listening tool" for their campaign. "All of 2008 was a real conversation though email, blogs and [comments that went] directly to senior staff."


POLL: Rasmussen Pennsylvania


Rasmussen Reports

Pennsylvania
Obama 46, McCain 42


POLL: Daily Tracking (6/23)


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 46, McCain 43

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 49, McCain 43

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain 54 / 43
Obama 56 / 42


POLL: GSG Alaska

Topics: Pollsters

Global Strategy Group/DSCC (D)

Alaska
McCain 44, Obama 42, Barr 3


POLL: Rasmussen Utah, New Mexico


Rasmussen Reports

Utah
McCain 52, Obama 33
Gov: Huntsman (R-i) 66, Springmeyer (D) 19

New Mexico
Obama 47, McCain 39
Sen: Udall (D) 58, Pearce (R) 30


POLL: Deseret Utah


Deseret Morning News/
Dan Jones & Associates

Utah
McCain 57, Obama 29, Nader 1


POLL: SurveyUSA Oregon, Washington


SurveyUSA

Oregon
Obama 48, McCain 45

Washington
Obama 55, McCain 40


 

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR