Pollster.com

April 11, 2010 - April 17, 2010

 

How Not to Respond to Poll Results

Topics: Harry Reid , Interpreting polls , LVRJ , Mason-Dixon , Sampling

A new poll released today in the Nevada senate race should serve as a lesson for any candidates who wish to refute negative poll results: leave the poll analysis to the pollsters.

The kerfuffle began last week, when Harry Reid's campaign pushed back against the results of a Las Vegas Review-Journal / Mason-Dixon poll showing Reid behind in potential Senate contests against two GOP frontrunners. The Reid campaign's criticism was that the poll didn't include all ballot options, leaving off several independent candidates and a "none of the above" option that appears on the ballot in Nevada.

Today, the Review-Journal responded in a predictable manner: they called the Reid campaign's bluff and released a new poll testing Reid against Sue Lowden (the Republican), six additional candidates, and "none of these." The result? 45% Lowden, 33% Reid. The result in the previously released poll? 46% Lowden, 38% Reid. This time, the Reid campaign's criticisms got even more bizarre: the Review-Journal reports that Reid's spokesman, Jon Summers, claimed that none of Mason-Dixon's polls are "scientifically sound" because they rely on random digit dialing to collect their samples rather than lists of registered or likely voters.

A Reid spokesman elaborated, as reported by Rachel Slajda at TPM:

"It's especially problematic in NV where less than half the voting age population cast ballots in the 2008 Presidential election ... In 2006 (the last off year election), just 31% of voting age Nevadans turned out. With turnout so low, the gap between the number who claim to be voters in response to a public poll and the numbers who actually vote is likely to be substantial."

Although many campaign pollsters do use list samples, RDD is hardly an exception to the rule for media pollsters. As our own Charles Franklin told TPM's Slajda:

"It's a complete inversion of the truth ... Random digit dialing is the standard method of doing polls -- hardly an exception, let alone a disadvantage."

Any guess on how the Reid campaign responds once someone goes into the field using a list sample?


March Unemployment in the States


unempall.png

March unemployment rates for the states are out today. Some down slightly, some up or steady. Here is the lede from the BLS report:

Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in March.
Twenty-four states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases,
17 states and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 9
states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia recorded jobless
rate increases from a year earlier, 5 states had decreases, and 1 state
had no change.

The number of jobs rose in 33 states and declined in 17, consistent with the addition of jobs nationally in March. So while the balance of results are improving there remain a significant minority of states not yet enjoying an improved jobs situation.

The chart above shows the trends by state with national comparisons.

The chart below shows the change over the past 12 months, March 2009 to March 2010. The states are mostly above the black 45 degree line, showing the general rise in unemployment among 44 states, with only 6 decreases or no change. The blue line shows the linear relationship over the year, illustrating what we might expect in 2010 given where a state was in 2009 and the overall pattern of change in those 12 months.

UnempDelta.png

Finally, we can look at which states are doing better than expected and which worse, compared to the blue linear fit line. The chart below shows the residuals for that fit against current state unemployment. Below zero means a state is doing better (has lower unemployment) than expected based on where they were a year ago. Above zero are states doing worse (higher unemployment) than expected.

UnempDeltaResid.png

The most interesting take-aways here are the two states in the top right corner: Nevada and Florida have both high current unemployment AND have higher than expected rates. And to make matters worse, both Nevada and Florida lost non-farm jobs from February to March. The electoral troubles Senator Reid and Governor Crist find themselves in might be somewhat less if their states were in happier circumstances. Not the whole story of course, but it certainly doesn't help.


We All Have a Problem

Topics: 2012 , Horse Race , Trialheat

Can we stop the insanity?

If you are reading this article, you are, like me, most likely a poll junkie. After all, we all visit Pollster.com to get our horse race polling fix. Each number we can get our hands gives us that little bit of extra energy to get us through the day. But as my mama once said, even too much of a good thing can be bad for you.

In the past few days, more than a fair share of 2012 presidential matchups have come up on my computer screen. Without getting into too many specifics, one poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed President Barack Obama leading by only 2% over Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). Another one by Rasmussen Reports, that Matt Drudge linked to, gave Barack Obama only a 1% advantage over Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). Even Nate Silver felt obligated to publish a response to the Paul poll that corrected for house effects for 2012 polls conducted up to this point.

Let us all take a deep breath. A dip into the polling archive demonstrates why these early horse race numbers are about as useful as Montana Militia money. A December 2002 (even closer to the election than we are now) Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of registered voters had then President George Bush defeating Senator John Kerry (D-MA) by 28% in a 2004 Presidential matchup. Bush won the national vote by 2.5%, a difference of 25.5%. What about 2008? A November 2006 Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters had Senator John McCain (R-AZ) defeating then Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) by 8%. Obama went on to win the national vote by 7.3%, a difference of 15.3%.

If these two examples do not convince you, I leave it to a great map put together by SurveyUSA, the most accurate pollster of 2008. The map shows the results of 50 statewide and the District of Columbia polls conducted in October 2006. Obama won only 28 electoral votes on the strength of D.C., Hawaii, and Illinois.

What actually happened?


Obama won 365 electoral votes by carrying 28 states, the second Congressional District of Nebraska, and the District of Columbia on election night. Need I say anything more?


AZ: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/13)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/13/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
510 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)
Update: General

Arizona

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
47% McCain, 42% Hayworth

2010 Senate: General Election
54% McCain, 32% Glassman
48% Hayworth, 39% Glassman

Favorable / Unfavorable
John McCain: 52 / 46
Rodney Glassman: 32 / 34
J.D. Hayworth: 43 / 49

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 58
Gov. Brewer: 48 / 51


HI-01: House (Kos 4/11-14)

Topics: Hawaii , poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
4/11-14/10; 500 likely voters, 5.0% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Hawaii First Congressional District

2010 Representative
32% Djou (R), 29% Case (D), 28% Hanabusa (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 61 / 35
Ed Case: 47 / 25
Charles Djou: 40 / 27
Colleen Hanabusa: 37 / 31

Note: This election is a special election to fill the seat of Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), who resigned to run for governor. To fill the seat, one winner-take-all election is held where all the candidates, regardless of party identification, compete.


US: Generic Ballot (PPP 4/9-11)

Topics: national , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/9-11/10; 622 registered voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
47% Republican, 42% Democrat (chart)

Do you approve or disapprove of the direction of _____________
The Democratic Party: 41% Approve, 50% Disapprove
The Republican Party: 28% Approve, 51% Disapprove


US: National Survey (Kos 4/12-15)

Topics: National , Poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
4/12-15/10; 1,200 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

National

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 53 / 42 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 39 / 52
Harry Reid: 28 / 62
Mitch McConnell: 24 / 61
John Boehner: 21 / 60
Democratic Party: 39 / 54
Republican Party: 31 / 65

State of the Country
38% Right Direction, 58% Wrong Track (chart)


CO: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/14)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/14/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Colorado

2010 Governor (trends)
48% McInnis (R), 42% Hickenlooper (D)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 44 / 57 (chart)
Gov. Ritter: 40 / 58 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Scott McInnis: 57 / 26
John Hickenlooper: 55 / 38


NV: 2010 Sen (LVRJ 4/13-14)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Mason Dixon / Las Vegas Review Journal
4/13-14/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(mason Dixon release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
47% Lowden, 37% Reid, 3% Fasano, 2% Ashjian, 3% None of these (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sue Lowden: 45 / 23
Harry Reid: 33 / 54
Tim Fasano: 5 / 11 (chart)
Scott Ashjian: 2 / 19


Have You Filed Yet? 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Lymari Morales shares Gallup's tax day fast facts.

CBS/Times finds most think their income tax is fair.

Most CNN respondents say their tax dollars are put to waste.

Zogby finds most Americans get stressed about filing tax returns.

Gary Langer explores why different surveys find different numbers of Tea Party supporters.

Andrew Kohut ponders the Tea Party effect on 2010.

Jon Cohen says most tea partiers don't want their own political party.

Jonathan Chait adds to Sean Trende's suggestion that Republicans could gain 80-90 seats in the House.

Bob Groves reports that Census participation is lower in urban areas worldwide.

Rep. Lynn Westmoreland makes the blunt conservative argument for the Census.

Survey Practice publishes its April edition.

McLaughlin & Associates releases a new survey of Jewish voters.

AP's "test returns" cause confusion in Indiana.

Nate Silver admits he's a closet Republican.


US: Health Care (Gallup 4/8-11)

Topics: poll

Gallup
4/8-11/10; 1,020 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

As you may know, Congress recently passed legislation that restructures the nation's health care system. All in all, do you think it is a good thing or a bad thing that Congress passed this legislation?
45% Good thing, 49% Bad thing (chart)


What About Kendrick Meek?

Topics: Charlie Crist , Florida , Kendrick Meek , Marco Rubio , Quinnipiac

Why doesn't Kendrick Meek get more respect?

For the last few months, when talk turns to Florida, political pundits have focused on the meteoric rise of Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the state's Republican primary for Senate. And today, with a new poll from Quinnipiac University showing Rubio opening up "an elephant sized 56-33 lead" over Crist, the commentariat seems more taken with the possibility of Crist running as an independent. The same survey shows Crist with a not-quite-statistically-significant 32% to 30% lead over Rubio in a three-way race with Meek, trailing at 24%.

But largely lost in this discussion are two important findings: First, in the most likely match-up for the fall, Quinnipiac shows Rubio leading Kendrick Meek by just six percentage points (42% to 38%). That's roughly the same margin as on the current trend estimate on our chart (43.7% to 38.5%). By that measure, Meek currently runs closer to his likely Republican opponent than do incumbent Democratic Senators Reid (NV), Lincoln (AR), and Specter (PA).

2010-04-15-Meek-vs-Rubio.png

Second, only about a quarter (26%) of the Florida voters surveyed by Quinnipiac currently know Meek well enough to rate him -- 18% rate him favorably, 8% unfavorably. Rubio is better known (58% can rate him), but Meek has far more room to grow, and Rubio's negatives are growing (36% favorable, 22% unfavorable). With four more months of a bruising primary battle still to come, that trend is likely to continue.

Consider some other factors that have gone largely unrecognized: Meek has so far raised a not-insignificant amount of money ($4.6 million as of December), and his campaign pulled off a bit of an historic first by qualifying for the ballot by collecting over 140,000 petitions rather than paying a $10,000 fee,

And then there is this potential wild card: Meek can make far bigger history by being the first African American elected Senator in Florida (and in the South since Reconstruction), a fact that is unlikely to be lost on Florida's Democratic base. While Democratic candidates nationwide may be up against an enthusiasm gap, Meek has a shot at generating the same sort of enthusiasm within Florida as benefited Obama in 2008 (with the side benefit of having all those first time voters that the Obama campaign registered two years ago). Meek's successful petition effort is a sign that his campaign is putting the requisite field mechanism into place for just such an effort.

If polls continue to show Meek running close to Rubio (or close to both Rubio and Crist in a three-way contest), the historic nature of his candidacy combined with Rubio's high national profile should combine to capture the attention and imagination of the Democratic small donor base nationwide. If that happens, Meek should have little trouble raising the funds necessary to saturate Florida's airwaves in the Fall.

Now I know, 2010 is not 2008. Obama won Florida by just two percentage points in a year when he had the wind at his back politically. This year, Obama's approval rating is under water in Florida, and the conservative base is the one fired up and ready to go, particularly with Rubio as the Republican nominee. DC handicappers also have their doubts about Meek, as is evident in Stu Rothenberg's skeptical take in Roll Call last week:

[I]t is difficult to imagine Meek winning in November. While he will talk often about his years in the Florida Highway Patrol, his record is relatively liberal, Democrats have lost ground in the state's generic ballot test and the recently enacted health care bill has received a very chilly reception in the state, including among seniors.

Meek is personally appealing, but he carries too much political baggage and was handed the Democratic nomination without a fight largely because Crist looked invincible when the race was taking shape.

Meek has a talented team, but the political landscape this cycle favors Republicans strongly, both nationally and in Florida. And that is likely to be decisive in November.

Maybe so. But I would keep an eye on this race.


AR: 2010 Sen (Kos 4/12-14)

Topics: Arkansas Senate , poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
4/12-14/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary (trends)
45% Lincoln, 33% Halter

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
50% Boozman (R), 43% Lincoln (D) (chart)
49% Hendren (R), 42% Lincoln (D) (chart)
48% Baker (R), 41% Lincoln (D) (chart)
46% Coleman (R), 43% Lincoln (D) (chart)
46% Cox (R), 43% Lincoln (D) (chart)
48% Boozman (R), 41% Halter (D)
46% Hendren (R), 43% Halter (D)
45% Baker (R), 43% Halter (D)
44% Halter (D), 43% Coleman (R)
44% Halter (D), 43% Cox (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Blanche Lincoln: 43 / 53
Bill Halter: 47 / 30
John Boozman: 45 / 31
Kim Hendren: 36 / 28
Gilbert Baker: 37 / 30
Curtis Coleman: 35 / 30
Tom Cox: 33 / 25
Barack Obama: 38 / 60


US: News Interest (Pew 4/9-12)

Topics: National , Poll

Pew Research Center
4/9-12/10; 1,012 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

Most Closely Followed Story
33% News about the new health care reform law
24% A deadly explosion in a coal mine in West Virginia
10% Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy
9% Tiger Woods playing in the Masters golf tournament
7% President Obama changing U.S. nuclear weapons policies and signing a nuclear weapons treaty with Russia
3% The current situation and events in Afghanistan

Would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way it has covered:

Barack Obama
Too easy: 29%, Too hard: 21%, Fair: 42%

Tiger Woods
Too Easy: 14%, Too hard: 38%, Fair: 39%

Pope Benedict the Sixteenth
Too Easy: 24%, Too hard: 10%, Fair: 44%


US: National Survey (Economist 4/10-13)

Topics: National , Poll

Economist / YouGov
4/10-13/10; 1,000 adults, 3.5 margin of error
704 registered voters (generic ballot question only)
Mode: Internet
(Economist release)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 82 / 12 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 88 (chart)
Inds: 44 / 51 (chart)
Economy: 41 / 49 (chart)
Health care: 43 / 49 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
13% Approve, 64% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (chart)
Registered voters: 49% Democrat, 44% Republican
All adults: 46% Democrat, 39% Republican

State of the Country
35% Right Direction, 50% Wrong Track (chart)

Overall, given what you know about them, do you support or oppose the changes to the health care system recently passed by Congress and signed by President Obama?
50% Support, 49% Oppose (chart)

Favorable/Unfavorable
John Paul Stevens: 31 / 20


Lakoff: The Poll Democrats Need to Know About

Topics: ballot initiatives , Framing , George Lakoff , Interpreting polls

George Lakoff is Goldman Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics at the University of California at Berkeley, and the author of The Political Mind. He Is the author of the California Democracy Act and chair of Californians for Democracy, the campaign organization advocating its passage.

This is a case study of how inadequate polling can lead Democrats to accept and promote a radical Republican view of reality. This paper compares two polls, one excellent and revealing, the other inadequate, misleading, and counterproductive. The issues raised are framing and value-shifting (where voters shift, depending on the wording of questions, between two contradictory political world-views they really hold, but about different issues). It also discusses how polls can reveal the difference between what words are commonly assumed to mean, versus what they really mean to voters -- and how polls can test this.

Continue reading "Lakoff: The Poll Democrats Need to Know About "


US: 2012 Pres (PPP 4/9-11)

Topics: National , Poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/9-11/10; 622 registered voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

2012 President
47% Huckabee, 45% Obama
47% Obama, 45% Palin
45% Obama, 45% Gingrich
45% Romney, 44% Obama

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 48 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Huckabee: 32 / 31 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 38 / 52 (chart)
Newt Gingrich: 34 / 47
Mitt Romney: 33 / 42 (chart)


UT: 2010 Gov, Sen (Rasmussen 4/8)

Topics: Poll , Utah

Rasmussen
4/8/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3.0% margin of error
620 likely Republican primary voters, 4.0% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: general, primary)

Utah

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
37% Bennett, 14% Bridgewater, 14% Lee, 6% Cook, 4% Eagar

2010 Governor: General Election
57% Herbert (R), 29% Corroon (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Gary Herbert: 72 / 23
Peter Corroon: 47 / 35

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 29 / 69
Gov. Herbert: 70 / 27


Obama birther myth not going away

Topics: Barack Obama , birther

CBSNews.com's Stephanie Condon reports that the myth of Barack Obama being born in another country is not going away. The new CBS/New York Times poll shows that only 58% of Americans, and 41% of self-identified Tea Party supporters, think he was born in the United States:

Image6396385_1

Although the Constitution requires American presidents to be natural born citizens, as many as 30 percent of Tea Partiers say they think President Obama was born in another country, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll. More Tea Partiers, however, at 41 percent, say he was born in the U.S.

The so-called "birther movement," questioning Mr. Obama's origins, began during his presidential campaign. It has steadily persisted through Mr. Obama's presidency, in spite of overwhelming evidence he was born in the United States -- including his 1961 birth announcement, printed in two Hawaii newspapers.

The myth persists among the larger American population, but to a lesser degree, according to the poll, conducted April 5 - 12. Thirty-two percent of Republicans think the president was born in another country.

Among Americans overall, 58 percent think Mr. Obama was born in this country, while 20 percent say he was born elsewhere. Significant percentages aren't sure or don't have an opinion.

For more, see my previous posts on the birther myth and my research with Jason Reifler on the persistence of political misperceptions.

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


AR: 2010 Sen (Lincoln 4/5-7)


Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Blanche Lincoln
4/5-7/10; 650 likely Democratic primary voters
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Lincoln release)

Arkansas

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
53% Lincoln, 35% Halter, 4% Morrison (trend)


FL: 2010 Sen (Quinnipiac 4/8-13)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
4/8-13/10; 1,250 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
497 likely Republican primary voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
56% Rubio, 33% Crist (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
48% Crist (R), 34% Meek (D) (chart)
42% Rubio (R), 38% Meek (D) (chart)
32% Crist (i), 30% Rubio (R), 24% Meek (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kendrick Meek: 18 / 8
Marco Rubio: 36 / 22
Charlie Crist: 48 / 35 (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 49 / 39 (chart)
Sen. Nelson: 43 / 30 (chart)
Sen. LeMieux: 20 / 21 (chart)


AR: 2010 Sen (TalkBusiness 4/13)

Topics: poll

Talk Business / Zata3 (D)
4/13/10; 1,167 likely Democratic primary voters, 3% margin of error
1,357 likely Republican primary voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Talk Business: Democrats, Republicans)

Arkansas

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary (trends)
38% Lincoln, 31% Halter, 10% Morrison

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
46% Boozman, 14% Baker, 8% Holt, 5% Coleman, 3% Alexander, 3% Hendren, 3% Reynolds

Update: Per our request, Zata3 has provided the following information:

"Zata|3 performed a two question IVR survey as prescribed by the client. We did not weight for age, race, gender or geographic response. We called registered voter households throughout the state which included voters who had participated in two of the last three primaries (Democrats in the case of the Lincoln/Halter survey and Republicans for the other survey). We randomize the data to improve the distribution of the survey results. Again, at the request of the client, we did not weight for geographic or demographic distribution that matches the electorate--we called until the desired number of completed surveys is obtained."

They also provided the following documents with the full question text: Democratic poll, Republican poll


US: National Survey, Tea Party (CBS/Times 4/5-12)

Topics: poll

CBS News / New York Times
4/5-12/10; 1,580 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: story, results 1, results 2; Times: story, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
50% Approve, 40% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 43 / 46 (chart)
Health Care: 41 / 51 (chart)
Federal Budget Deficit: 29 / 53

State of the Country
34% Right Direction, 59% Wrong Track (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
17% Approve, 73% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 43 / 33 (chart)
Republican Party: 38 / 53
Democratic Party: 42 / 50
George W. Bush: 27 / 58
Sarah Palin: 30 / 45 (chart)
Tea Party Movement: 21 / 18

Times:

Tea Party supporters' fierce animosity toward Washington, and the president in particular, is rooted in deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the conviction that the policies of the Obama administration are disproportionately directed at helping the poor rather than the middle class or the rich.

The overwhelming majority of supporters say Mr. Obama does not share the values most Americans live by and that he does not understand the problems of people like themselves. More than half say the policies of the administration favor the poor, and 25 percent think that the administration favors blacks over whites -- compared with 11 percent of the general public.

CBS:

Eighteen percent of Americans identify as Tea Party supporters. The vast majority of them -- 89 percent -- are white. Just one percent is black.

They tend to skew older: Three in four are 45 years old or older, including 29 percent who are 65 plus. They are also more likely to be men (59 percent) than women (41 percent).



Pre-Tax Day 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Frank Newport responds to Matt Bai on the role of polling in governance.

Jon Chait hunts for polling on progressive versus proportional taxation; Jonathan Bernstein adds more, Chait responds to Bernstein.

Gallup finds six in 10 Americans expect tax increases in the next year; Rasmussen finds a fifth of Americans haven't filed their taxes yet.

Mark Mellman draws
lessons from historical public opinion on health care.

David Hill thinks an economic recovery won't prevent Republican victory.

Sean Trende thinks a 1994 scenario is the most likely outcome for 2010.

Chris Bowers sees the FL-19 result as consistent with a national Republican lead.

Nate Silver says Arlen Specter shouldn't count on winning the Pennsylvania senate primary.

Rep. John B. Larson answers common questions about the census.

Marist polls New Yorkers on a Spitzer comeback.

Christopher Parker responds to questions on his University of Washington Tea Party poll.

RIP James Beninger, award winning communications and sociology professor, former AAPOR president and creator of the AAPOR listserv.


US: National Survey (AP-GfK 4/07-12)

Topics: National , Poll

AP-GfK
4/7-12/10; 1,001 adults, 4.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(AP-GfK release)

National

State of the Country
41% Right Direction, 57% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 50% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 44 / 51 (chart)
Health Care: 44 / 52 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
28% Approve, 70% Disapprove (chart)
Dems in Congress: 41 / 58
Reps in Congress: 38 / 60

Do you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?
44% Republicans, 41% Democrats

Would you like to see your own member of Congress get re-elected in November, or
would you like to see someone else win the election?

43% Own member, 51% Someone else

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 55 / 44 (chart)
Joe Biden: 48 / 42
Sarah Palin: 45 / 50 (chart)
Michelle Obama: 70 / 24
Hillary Clinton: 66 / 32 (chart)
Dick Cheney: 39 / 55
Nancy Pelosi: 34 / 53
Tea Party movement: 28 / 30

In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reforms that were passed by Congress in March?
39% Support, 50% Oppose (chart)

Party ID
32% Democrat, 26% Republican, 27% independent, 15% Don't know (chart)


NC: 2010 Sen (PPP 4/08-11)

Topics: North Carolina , Poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/08-11/10; 742 likely voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
43% Burr, 35% Cunningham (chart)
43% Burr, 35% Lewis (chart)
43% Burr, 37% Marshall (chart)
43% Burr, 38% Generic Democrat (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Cal Cunningham: 5 / 8
Kenneth Lewis: 7 / 10
Elaine Marshall: 19 / 11

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Burr: 32 / 41 (chart)
Sen. Hagan: 34 / 44 (chart)


CA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/12)

Topics: California , Poll

Rasmussen
4/12/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

California

2010 Senate
42% Boxer, 38% Fiorina (chart)
42% Boxer, 39% DeVore (chart)
43% Boxer, 41% Campbell (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 51 / 44 (chart)
Carly Fiorina: 36 / 34
Chuck DeVore: 39 / 26
Tom Campbell: 41 / 31

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 57 / 41 (chart)
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 35 / 63 (chart)


Rasmussen: Generic Ballot Right or Wrong?

Topics: Generic House Vote , Rasmussen

Are Democrats going to lose 60+ seats? A lot has been written about the generic ballot in the past week. One thing Alan Abramowitz '02 (vs. a separate model that incorporates presidential approval) and Nate Silver's findings agree upon is that if the Republicans win the generic vote by 3.0% or greater on election day, they will probably take control of the House of Representatives. A loss of 7 points or more would result in a 1994 or worse scenario for Democrats.

The latest Rasmussen poll has Republicans winning on the generic ballot by 9 points (45%-36%). Is Rasmussen right? Could they be even under-doing a Republican romp as Nate Silver suggests they may?

The answer is maybe.

Since 2002, when Rasmussen first asked the generic ballot question, they have underestimated, nailed, and overestimated the Republican vs. Democratic margin. As the table above illustrates, Rasmussen's final pre-election poll low-balled the Republican margin in 2004 by 8.2%, but did the exact opposite in 2008, overshooting it by over 4%.

It should be noted that Rasmussen adopted its currently dynamic weighting process in 2006, which helped them perfectly predict the spread between the two parties in the national house vote in 2006. Yet, this same dynamic weighting led to Rasmussen under-predicting the Democratic victory in 2008.

Interestingly, the spread between the two parties on the generic ballot barely budged from April to Election Day from 2004-2008. That is, Rasmussen's polling was very stable, which can likely be attributed to Rasmussen's weighting by party. Of course, in only 2006 could the stability be seen as a sign of accuracy.

So what does all of this information tell us about Rasmussen's generic ballot polling in 2010?

Basically, it may be accurate or it may not be, but it will most likely be consistent.


US: 2012 Pres (Rasmussen 4/12-13)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/12-13/10; 1000 likely voters, 3.0% margin of error
Mode: Automated Phone
(Rasmussen release)

National

Ron Paul Favorability
39% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable

In thinking about the 2012 Presidential election suppose you had a choice between Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat Barack Obama?
Obama: 41%
Paul: 40%


US: National Survey (PPP 4/09-11)

Topics: National , Poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/09-11/10; 622 registered voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated Phone
(PPP Release)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve , 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 84/12 (chart)
Reps: 10/87 (chart)
Inds: 41/45 (chart)

Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion? (chart)
Support: 45%
Oppose: 50%

Do you support or oppose repealing the health care bill that was passed last month?
Support: 53%
Oppose: 40%

Would you rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush as President right now?
Obama: 48%
Bush: 46%

Party ID
Democrat: 38%, Republican: 38%, Independent: 24% (chart)


PA: 2010 Sen,Gov (SPR 4/07-12)

Topics: Pennsylvania , Poll

Susquehanna (R)
4/07-12/10; 700 likely voters, 3.7% margin of error
254 likely Republican primary voters, 6.1% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(Susquehanna Release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
42% Specter, 28% Sestak, 26% Undecided (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
48% Toomey, 38% Specter, 10% Undecided (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
50% Corbett, 7% Rohrer, 40% Undecided

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
32% Onorato, 13% Hoeffel, 6% Wagner, 4% Williams, 43% Undecided (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 42 / 49 (chart)

Do you support or oppose the new healthcare reform law recently enacted by President Obama and the national Democrats in Washington?
Support: 43%
Oppose: 48%


PA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/12)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/12/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
50% Toomey, 40% Specter (chart)
47% Toomey, 36% Sestak ()chart

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 42 / 54 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 54 / 29
Joe Sestak: 38 / 39

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 54 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 42 / 56 (chart)


US: National Survey (GWU 4/5-8)

Topics: poll

George Washington University Battleground Poll / The Tarrance Group (R) / Lake Research Partners (D)
4/5-8/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Tarrance Group: toplines, Republican analysis)

National

State of the Country
36% Right Direction, 55% Wrong Track (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
41% Republican, 40% (chart)

Obama Job Approval
50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
25% Approve, 8% Disapprove (chart)
Dems in Congress: 36 / 57
Reps in Congress: 32 / 59

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 42 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 32 / 52
Joe Biden: 45 / 43
Tea Party Movement: 38 / 33
John Boehner: 14 / 17

Based on what you know, would you say that you favor or oppose the health care reform bill that Congress passed and President Obama recently signed into law?
44% Favor, 52% Oppose (chart)

Party ID
33% Democrat, 27% Republican, 38% independent (chart)


US: Generic Ballot (Rasmussen 4/5-11)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/5-11/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
45% Republican, 36% Democrat


PA: 2010 Senate Primary (Rasmussen 4/12)


Rasmussen
4/12/10; 435 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
44% Specter, 42% Sestak (chart)


Polling Overkill 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Jon Cohen explains how survey researchers define "the South."

Ben Smith reports that Mitt Romney won the Young Republicans straw poll at SRLC, too.

Harry Reid's campaign argues that Nevada Senate polling should include a "none of the above" option.

Renard Sexton analyzes how turnout could affect the outcome of British parliamentary elections.

Chris Good points out some "polling overkill:" CNN has been tracking Tiger Woods' favorable ratings since 2000.


US: Congress (Gallup 3/26-28)

Topics: poll

Gallup
3/26-28/10; 1,033 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Reps in Congress: 33 / 61
Dems in Congress: 37 / 59

Gallup
4/8-11/10; 1,020 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Job Approval / Disapproval
Congress: 23 / 72 (chart)


Census Participation: 'How Can They Know?'

Topics: Census , Robert Groves , Rush Limbaugh

A press briefing on Monday by Census Director Robert Groves produced an Associate Press report that focused on the overall participation rate and lack of signs of any conservative boycott, but also provoked a very strange response from conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh. Here's the lead of the AP story:

Census Bureau director Robert Groves said Monday he is heartened by the high level of participation so far in the 2010 census, with no indications that large numbers of conservatives were only partially filling out the form or boycotting the government count.

"We can't find empirical support for that," Groves said, regarding evidence of lower participation among conservatives. He noted that perhaps 1 or 2 percent of the 10-question forms returned so far have been incomplete, which is what officials previously anticipated.

The story also quotes Groves saying that "things are going quite well" and reporting an overall rate of participation (65% yesterday, 66% today according to the Census Bureau widget included below), a number which AP reports "puts the U.S. on track to match or surpass the 2000 mail-back rate of 72 percent." As in the last Census, "most of the lagging areas are either rural or have dense populations, or have more minority and non-English speaking people."

According to a transcript posted on his web site, Limbaugh gloated that the report by "State-Controlled AP" countered the impression that only "tinfoil hat right-wingers" had failed to return their census forms. Yet he also managed to find a hint of conspiracy in Groves' comments:

You know, when the census guy comes out and says, "The big cities are lagging," isn't that a code, a codeword for "minority"? Isn't "urban" a codeword for "minority"? And how do they know they're lagging behind? Wouldn't they have to know how many people are there in the first place to know whether they're lagging behind? How can they possibly know that they're lagging behind? Hmm?

How can they know? Easy. In order to mail out the 10-question form to every household in America, the Census Bureau begins by creating a master list of households. To calculate the "mail participation rate" in any geographic area, they simply divide the number of households that has returned a form by the number of households to which forms were sent (excluding the number returned by the postal service as "undeliverable" -- it's explained in more detail here).

In fact, as we've noted previously, the Census has posted an amazingly powerful interactive map that allows you to zoom in to check the rate of response of any state, county, municipality or even neighborhood Census "tracts." You can check how your town is doing as compared to others. You can learn, for example, that recent football dominance aside, Michigan (72% participation rate) still holds a slight lead over Ohio (71%).

2010-04-13-Census-Map.png

Alas, the map will not explain why Limbaugh has still "not received the census form" nor has "not received a census form my entire adult life" (as he also claimed in the same segment). Some mysteries are too hard to solve. However, the Census does have a two-part blog post up today on what to do if you don't have a form.

[Interests disclosed: Like Census Director Groves, I attended the University of Michigan, although I was born and raised in Ohio. Go Blue.]

Update: Pollster.com uber-staffer and recent University of Wisconsin graduate Emily Swanson points out that Wisconsin (77% participation rate) currently leads both the Big Ten and the nation.


US: Republican Party (PPP 4/9-11)


Public Policy Polling (D)
4/9-11/10; 622 registered voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Do you approve or disapprove of the direction of the Republican Party?
28% Approve, 51% Disapprove

Favorable / Unfavorable
Michael Steele: 10 / 33
Mitch McConnell: 15 / 26
John Boehner: 15 / 25


US: National Survey (CNN 4/9-11)

Topics: poll


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
4/9-11/10; 1,008 adults, 3% margin of error
907 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
498 Republicans, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)
Update: Generic Ballot

National

Obama Job Approval
51% Approve, 47% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (chart)
Registered voters: 50% Democrat, 46% Republican
All respondents: 50% Democrat, 45% Republican

2012 President: Republican Primary
24% Huckabee
20% Romney
15% Palin
14% Gingrich
8% Paul
3% Santorum
2% Pawlenty
2% Pence
1% Barbour

2012 President: General Election (among registered voters)
53% Obama, 45% Romney
54% Obama, 45% Huckabee
55% Obama, 42% Palin
55% Obama, 43% Gingrich

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 57 / 41 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 38 / 58
Harry Reid: 28 / 35
Hillary Clinton: 61 / 35 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 39 / 55 (chart)
Mitt Romney: 40 / 34 (chart)
Mike Huckabee: 43 / 29 (chart)
Newt Gingrich: 38 / 38
Democratic Party: 49 / 46
Republican Party: 47 / 47
Tea Party movement: 38 / 36

Do you think leaders of other countries around the world have respect for Barack Obama, or do you think they don't have much respect for him?
56% Respect, 42% Don't respect


NC: 2010 Sen Primary (PPP 4/8-11)

Topics: poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/8-11/10; 401 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
23% Marshall, 17% Cunningham, 9% Lewis, 4% Harris, 1% Worthy, 0% Williams (trends)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
67% Burr, 7% Jones, 3% Burks, 1% Linney

2012 President: Republican Primary
30% Huckabee, 30% Palin, 27% Romney


KY: 2010 Sen (SurveyUSA 4/9-11)

Topics: poll

SurveyUSA
4/9-11/10; 446 likely Republican primary voters, 4.7% margin of error
659 likely Democratic primary voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)'

Kentucky

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
45% Paul, 30% Grayson, 3% Stephenson, 2% Martin, 1% Scribner

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
35% Mongiardo, 32% Conway, 5% Price, 4% Buckmaster, 2% Sweeney

2010 Senate: General Election
44% Republican, 41% Democrat


US: Generic Ballot (Gallup 4/5-11)


Gallup
4/5-11/10; 1,613 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 44% Democrat (chart)


NY: 2010 Gov (Quinnipiac 4/6-11)

Topics: New York , poll


Quinnipiac
4/6-11/10; 1,381 registered voters, 4.8% margin of error
411 Republicans, 4.8% margin of errpr
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

New York

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
34% Lazio, 11% Levy, 11% Paladino

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
64% Pataki, 15% Blakeman

2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
55% Cuomo (D), 26% Lazio (R) (chart)
57% Cuomo (D), 24% Levy (R)
60% Cuomo (D), 24% Paladino (R)

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
47% Gillibrand (D), 25% Blakeman (R)
45% Pataki (R), 40% Gillibrand (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Andrew Cuomo: 59 / 19
Rick Lazio: 24 / 19
Steve Levy: 13 / 11
Carl Paladino: 12 / 8
Kirsten Gillibrand: 37 / 23 (chart)
Bruce Blakeman: 7 / 6
George Pataki: 52 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Paterson: 25 / 65 (chart)
Sen. Gillibrand: 47 / 25 (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 61 / 26 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 62 / 33 (chart)


Day of Dissonance 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

CNN finds the public divided on eliminating nuclear weapons.

Jon Cohen and Gary Langer say public expectations of the nuclear summit are limited.

Mitt Romney wins the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll.

Sheri Rivlin and Allan Rivlin think it's time for Democrats to go on offense.

Alex Lundry points to "charts to whip out" when Democrats or Republicans "start running their mouths"

James Suriowiecki considers potential for income growth to influence 2010 election outcome; Chris Bowers links to charts on quartly GDP growth rates.

Rasmussen's Obama approval rating tops Gallup's.

Day of poll junkie dissonance: Obama approval higher on Rasmussen (48%) than Gallup (45%).


US: National Survey (WRS 4/5-7)

Topics: poll

Wilson Research Strategies (R) / Southern Republican Leadership Conference / Reynolds American
4/5-7/10; 851 registered voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(WRS release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
42% Republican, 34% Democrat (chart)

2012 President
45% Generic Republican, 37% Obama

Favorable / Unfavorable
Republican Party: 47 / 42
Democratic Party: 44 / 46


CT: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/7)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate
52% Blumenthal (D), 38% Simmons (R) (chart)
55% Blumenthal (D), 35% McMahon (R) (chart)
58% Blumenthal (D), 32% Schiff (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Blumenthal: 69 / 28
Rob Simmons: 48 / 40
Peter Schiff: 41 / 34
Linda McMahon: 45 / 45

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 44 (chart)
Gov. Rell: 60 / 39 (chart)


LA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/7)

Topics: Louisiana , poll

Rasmussen
4/7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mod: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Louisiana

2010 Senate
52% Vitter (R), 36% Melancon (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Vitter: 60 / 37 (chart)
Charlie Melancon: 46 / 41

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 40 / 59 (chart)
Gov. Jindal: 64 / 35 (chart)


Electoral politics is a zero-sum game

Topics: 2010 , midterm

In yet another 1994/2010 comparison piece, the New York Times suggests, as I once did, that the Republican Party's image problems might limit its gains in November:

Moreover, the Republican Party has a different image than it did in 1994. At that time, Republicans had been out of control of Congress for long enough that they were able to present themselves as the party of change. They were viewed unfavorably by just 39 percent of Americans. By contrast, 57 percent said in February that they had an unfavorable view of Republicans in a New York Times/CBS News poll.

While it's true that Republicans are viewed more negatively than they were in 1994, that's not the relevant comparison in 2010. Electoral politics is a zero-sum game. What matters is the strength of the Republican image relative to Democrats. And as I showed a couple of weeks ago, the gap between the parties' images is now comparable to 1994:

Nbcposmt

As such, there's no reason to think that the GOP's negative image will protect Democrats, especially given the likelihood that the Republican brand will continue to gain luster (as it did between June and November 1994). For the purposes of campaigning, all poll numbers are relative.

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


Watching the Generic Ballot in 2010

Topics: Alan Abramowitz , Christopher Wlezien , Generic House Vote , Joseph Bafumi , Robert Erikson

My column for this week looks at the current trends in the generic ballot for the U.S. House and what we can say at this point about what that portends for the results in November. The short version is that current results point to a strong Republican performance, although whether Republicans retake control of the House depends on whether this measure shows any trend over the next 200 days. Please click through and read it all.

Earlier today, Charles Franklin posted two graphics that show trends in the[(/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.html over previous election years -- mid-term and presidential -- going all the way back to 1946. If nothing else, his charts give an immediate sense of the growth in public opinion polling over the last two decades.

The big and difficult question noted in the column is whether we can predict where the generic House ballot -- and control of the House -- will end up based on recent history. The most compelling effort to model the outcome based on the generic vote months before the election comes in a 20092 paper by Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien. They argue that the generic ballot moves in a predictable pattern during a mid-term election year toward the party that lost the previous presidential election. So, if those previous trends repeat, Republicans will be doing better on the generic House ballot in the fall than they are now.

As Dartmouth undergraduate (and Pollster.com intern) Harry Enten observed two months ago, the Bafumi, et. al. model currently points to a 50-60 seat gain in November. Nate Silver noted the same result this past Friday.

Finally, the column references another model in created by Emory University Political Scientist Alan Abramowitz in 2002. We should note that Abramowitz is currently publishing results for newer model on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball that most recently forecast a gain of 37 seats for the Republicans in November.


NH: 2010 gov (Rasmussen 4/7)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Hampshire

2010 Governor (trends)
50% Lynch (D), 34% Kimball (R)
50% Lynch (D), 33% Testerman (R)
47% Lynch (D), 37% Stephen (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Lynch: 60 / 35 (chart)
Karen Testerman: 31 / 27
Jack Kimball: 36 / 26
John Stephen: 36 / 27

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Lynch: 59 / 39 (chart)


PA: 2010 Sen, Gov (Muhlenberg 3/29-4/7)

Topics: poll

Muhlenberg College / Morning Call
3/29-4/7/10; 494 adults, 5% margin of error
402 likely voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Morning Call story)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
47% Toomey (R), 40% Specter (D) (chart)
33% Toomey (R), 22% Sestak (D) (chart)

2010 Governor
42% Corbett (R), 18% Onorato (D) (chart)
44% Corbett (R), 16% Wagner (D) (chart)
45% Corbett (R), 11% Hoeffel (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 50 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 44 / 47 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 41 / 52 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 30 / 18
Joe Sestak: 24 / 14


FL: 2010 Sen Primary (Rasmussen 4/8)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/8/10; 500 likely Republican primary voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Florida

2010 Senate
57% Rubio, 28% Crist (chart)


Generic Ballot Trends


GenericBallot1992to2010.png

Generic Ballot time. Mark has a piece at National Journal today that will soon be linked to here in his Monday post. Meanwhile here is a quick look at the underlying data.

Above, generic ballot trends since 1992. The contrast of 2010 to 2006 and 2008 is quite striking. No comment necessary.

Below, the linear trend over the last 200 days of the campaign, since 1946. See Mark's post for some discussion.

Off to teach! Have a good week.

Last200GenericBallot1946to2010.png


NV: 2010 Sen, Gov (LVRJ 4/5-7)

Topics: poll

Las Vegas Review Journal / Mason-Dixon
4/5-7/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
300 likely Republican primary voters, 6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Las Vegas Review Journal: Governor, Senate)

Nevada

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
45% Lowden, 27% Tarkanian, 5% Angle, 4% Christensen, 3% Chachas (trend)

2010 Senate: General Election
46% Lowden (R), 38% H. Reid (D), 5% Ashjian (Tea Party) (chart)
39% Tarkanian (R), 39% Reid (D), 11% Ashjian (Tea Party) (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
39% Sandoval, 25% Gibbons, 7% Montandon (trends)

2010 Governor: General Election
42% R. Reid (D), 40% Gibbons (R) (chart)
50% Sandoval (R), 35% R. Reid (D) (chart)

Would support or oppose having Attorney General Catherine Masto file a lawsuit to strike down the federal healthcare law?
50% Support, 40% Oppose


 

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