Pollster.com

April 18, 2010 - April 24, 2010

 

WA: 2010 Sen (SurveyUSA 4/19-22)

Topics: Poll , Washington

SurveyUSA
4/19-22/10; 517 likely voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Washington

2010 Senate
52% Rossi (R), 42% Murray (D)
46% Murray (D), 44% Benton (R)
46% Murray (D), 44% Didier (R)
45% Murray (D), 43% Widener (R)
45% Murray (D), 44% Akers (R)
45% Murray (D), 41% Coday (R)


More Chart Junk, Please! 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Dalia Sussman and Marina Stefan report on "birther" questions from the latest CBS/New York Times poll.

Gallup finds narrowest party affiliation since 2005.

National Journal's political insiders split on party lines over whether Crist should run as an independent.

Frank Newport looks at public opinion on Wall Street reform.

Congressional Republicans insist their financial reform talking point didn't come from Frank Luntz; Democracy Corps finds it isn't an effective message anyway.

Democracy Corps (D) releases a poll on the economy for Citizen Opinion.

Anthony Wells reports on two more UK post-debate poll and a poll in marginal districts.

Allegheny College releases poll data on civility in American politics.

Marist respondents oppose replacing Grant with Reagan on the $50 bill.

A presidential candidate in the Philippines sues pollsters over "outdated and fraudulent survey methods," and using his name without his permission.

Eagereyes shares potential benefits from "chart junk" (via Lundry)


NC: Approval Ratings (Civitas 4/13-15, Elon 4/19-22)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

North Carolina

Civitas Institute (R)
4/13-15/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Civitas President, Governor release)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 44 / 45 (chart)
Beverly Perdue: 34 / 44 (chart)


Elon University
4/19-22/10; 607 adults, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Elon release)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 48 (chart)
Sen. Burr: 37 / 28 (chart)
Gov. Perdue: 37 / 47 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 45 / 46 (chart)
Beverly Perdue: 35 / 46 (chart)

Thinking about your current United States Senator, Richard Burr . . . do you think [he has performed his job well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance?
26% Deserves re-election, 44% Time for new person

Update: Civitas' newly released favorables are now also included.


WI: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/20)

Topics: poll , Wisconsin

Rasmussen
4/20/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Governor
46% Neumann (R), 46% Barrett (D) (chart)
46% Walker (R), 44% Barrett (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Neumann: 53 / 31
Scott Walker: 48 / 33
Tom Barrett: 40 / 46


GA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/22)

Topics: Georgia , poll

Rasmussen
4/22/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Georgia

2010 Senate
51% Isakson (R), 35% Thurmond (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Johnny Isakson: 60 / 27
Michael Thurmond: 45 / 32

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 57
Gov. Perdue: 55 / 42


Rivlin & Rivlin: Is Trust in Government Really at an All Time Low?

Topics: Pew Research Center , Sheri and Allan Rivlin , Trust

Sheri Rivlin and Allan Rivlin are the Co-Editors of CenteredPolitics.com. Allan Rivlin is a Partner at Hart Research Associates. In 1993 Allan Rivlin was a Special Assistant in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Some survey findings have more legs than others and the recent report "Distrust, Discontent, Anger and Partisan Rancor" from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press seems to be getting more attention than most. Conservative commentators such as the Wall Street Journal's Dan Henniger are using the finding that just 22% trust the government to do what is right "just about always" or "most of the time" to suggest that Obama's policies are completely at odds with the mood of American voters and predicting the Democrats will lose big in the November election.

Democrats can take heart in the fact that this number was 17% in a CBS poll taken in October 2008 just before the Republicans were swept out of power. Henniger falsely asserts that the poll results are an "historical low" point for the measure. Nonetheless the fairly low reading is further evidence that the mood of America is more anti-incumbent than anti-Democratic.

Indeed, the chart and accompanying data table Pew compiled from the iPOLL database maintained at the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut are very illuminating. From readings as high as 73% in 1958 and 77% in 1964 we see the long steady decline in the chart through the Vietnam War years to 53% in 1972. There is a sharp fall off after the Watergate scandal to 36% in 1974, and a continued decline through the Ford and Carter years to 25% in 1980. That's about where the number is now.

The number moves upward through the first Reagan term to 47% in 1984, but then falls again to 40% in 1988 and hits a lows of 22% (again the current number) as George Bush the elder is running for reelection during an economic downturn. The number stood at 17% in 1994 after the defeat of the Clinton health reform effort, and just before Democrats lost control of Congress for the first time in 40 years, so Democrats cannot afford to ignore the fact that the number is again near its lowest measures.

But the number did rise dramatically during the Clinton years hitting 44% before the 2000 election. The measure spiked to 60% just after September 11, 2001 but then declined through the Bush years to 17% just before Obama was elected.

So what do these results really tell us?

The survey question is really capturing three things at once. 1) The number rises and falls with the economy which is a key driver of overall satisfaction with government. 2) The number falls in response to a major scandal such as Watergate or Iran Contra.

And 3) we are not the same as the American public in the 1950s. Belief in institutions, all institutions, from the Catholic Church to large corporations to the military, the political parties and the federal government is something to be read about in historical novels and seen only in the first season of Mad Men. After hearing the justification for the Iraq invasion, what grown up in 2010 would say they trust the government "just about always" as 3% do in the current survey? These days the modal choice of conservatives and liberals is "some of the time" the answer chosen by a majority of Democrats and Republicans in the survey -- but counted as "distrust" when the results are summarized.

So how worried should Democrats be based on the results reported in the Pew study? The answer is more than a little but less than the survey's conservative trumpeters. The truth is the survey tells us the conservative movement has been successful in its decades long campaign to reduce the trust in government built by FDR's successful response to the great depression and World War II. This effort most emblematically captured in Ronald Reagan's "The government IS the problem" mantra, has had a long term effect and combined with a poor economy, it means the Democrats are challenged by an anti-incumbent headwind heading into this election.

But in our most recent post we explain why the predictions of doom are misplaced and what we think Democrats should do to turn the tide in our favor.

Cross-posted
at Centered-Politics.com.


NH: 2010 Gov (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 1,474 likely voters, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Governor (trends)
47% Lynch (D), 35% Kimball (R)
47% Lynch (D), 36% Stephen (R)
47% Lynch (D), 29% Testerman (R)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Lynch: 44 / 42 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jack Kimball: 3 / 12
John Stephen: 12 / 20
Karen Testerman: 3 / 12


US: National Survey (Kos 4/19-22)

Topics: National , poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
4/19-22/10; 1,200 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

National

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 41 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 38 / 51
Harry Reid: 27 / 60
Mitch McConnell: 25 / 60
John Boehner: 23 / 59
Democratic Party: 40 / 54
Republican Party: 32 / 64

State of the Country
39% Right Direction, 57% Wrong Track (chart)


US: National Survey (Harris 4/12-19)

Topics: poll

Harris
4/12-19/10; 2,755 adults
Mode: Internet
(Harris release)

National

Obama Job Rating
41% Excellent/Good, 59% Only Fair/poor (chart)
Reps: 9 / 91 (chart)
Dems: 70 / 30 (chart)
Inds: 36 / 64 (chart)

Congressional Job Rating
16% Excellent/Good, 84% Only Fair/Poor (chart)

State of the Country
39% Right Direction, 61% Wrong Track (chart)


US: National Survey (Economist 4/17-21)

Topics: polls

Economist / YouGov
4/17-21/10; 1,000 adults, 3.5% margin of error
695 registered voters (all questions asked of all adults unless otherwise noted)
Mode: Internet
(Economist release)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 79 / 18 (chart)
Reps: 9 / 89 (chart)
Inds: 38 / 57 (chart)
Economy: 37 / 51 (chart)
Health Care: 40 / 50 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
15% Approve, 61% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Registered voters: 46% Democrat, 42% Republican (chart)
Adults: 44% Democrat, 38% Republican

State of the Country
31% Right direction, 56% Wrong track (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 40 / 46
Republican Party: 34 / 50
Tea Party Movement: 36 / 38


MD: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/20)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/20/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Rasmussen release)

Maryland

2010 Governor
47% O'Malley (D), 44% Ehrlich (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Martin O'Malley: 54 / 43
Bob Ehrlich: 56 / 39

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 59 / 41
Gov. O'Malley: 50 / 48


CA: 2010 Primaries (SurveyUSA 4/19-21)

Topics: California , poll

SurveyUSA
4/19-21/10; 583 likely Republican primary voters, 4.3% margin of error
705 likely Democratic primary voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(surveyUSA release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
49% Whitman, 27% Poizner, 9% Others (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
63% Brown, 6% Aguirre, 6% Darling, 7% Others

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
34% Campbell, 27% Fiorina, 14% DeVore, 3% Kalemkarian (chart)


US: National Survey (Fox 4/20-21)

Topics: National , poll

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
4/20-21/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
373 Democrats, 5% margin of error
328 Republicans, 5% margin of error
160 independents, 8% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox News: Story Congress, Toplines Congress, Story Economy, Toplines Economy)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 82 / 12 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 82 (chart)
Inds: 39 / 47 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
22% Approve, 68% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
42% Republican, 38% Democrat (chart)
36% Democrat, 24% Republican, 13% Tea Party

"Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose the Democratic plan for regulating Wall Street and the financial services industry?"
39% Favor, 39% Oppose

"Regardless of whether you've attended a Tea Party rally or event, do you consider yourself to be part of the Tea Party movement, or not?"
17% Yes, 77% No

Party ID
41% Democrat, 36% Republican, 18% independent (chart)


Anthony Wells Interview: Part 1

Topics: election results , Interpreting polls , UK elections

Anthony Wells is the editor of the UK Polling Report and an associate director at YouGov. He spoke with Emily Swanson on Tuesday about polling and the UK elections. Below is part 1 on the state of the race and interpreting polling data. Tomorrow we will post part 2 on polling methodology.

First of all, could you tell me a little bit about UK Polling Report and about yourself?

UK polling report I started about 2005, really just a similar thing to what Mark does. About me, I'm associate director at YouGov, which is with Polimetrix in the US and in the UK now as well, so it's the parent company for pollster.

Could you tell me a little bit about what the state of the race is in the UK right now?

Until last week, it was a Conservative lead of about 6 or 7 points, before our first televised election debate between the leaders, and after that , the third party, the Liberal Democrats just sort of rocketed in support, so they're up to just about 30 percent or so, and realistically it's about neck and neck between them and the Conservatives as the polls bounce back and forth. [Note: The second debate in this race took place earlier today. Wells has posted instant reaction polls here and here.]

So what does that mean for the Liberal Democrats? If they're neck and neck in the polls, could they get the most seats in parliament?

Assuming a uniform swing, then no, they'll still be miles behind. On the latest polls, we had the Liberal Democrats on top, neck and neck with the Conservatives, then Labour, but in terms of seats, it would equal out to Liberal Democrats having the fewest seats, then the Conservatives, then Labour having the most, despite having the fewest votes.

How is it that that could happen?

It's actually different reasons. The Conservative and Labour disparity is largely out of demographics. Labour seats tend to be smaller because the demographic movements in the UK population is people moving from the inner cities, which tend to be Labour seats, out into the suburbs, which tend to be Conservative seats. Boundary distributions normally lag about 10 years behind. So that helps Labour. You also get very low turnout in a lot of Labour seats, and you also get lots of tactical voting against the Conservatives. So they all mean, on an equal vote [between Conservatives and Labour] Labour do much better.

The Liberal Democrats, they do much worse for different reasons, it's basically because they almost broke through in the early '80s, then they were third place in the 1983 election, but it was a fraction of a percentage point behind Labour. Then they didn't get any seats, they got about 20 seats, despite being a quarter of the vote, because their vote was very evenly spread across the country. Since then, they've become very, very good at targeting - very, very good at focusing their campaign on winner-take-all seats. Which means now they win more seats on a lower percentage of the vote than they had back in 1983. So they've suddenly got this great big grapefruit. They've got 60 or so seats they hold, then maybe 40 or 50 more marginals, and then in the rest of the country their vote is very very low. Over half the seats, they've got under 20 percent, so there's just a huge gap for them to climb over before they start getting a large number of seats.

Labour vote is very efficiently distributed, the Liberal Democrats one is very efficiently distributed for a party that has 20%, but if you suddenly get up to 30%, their vote is atrociously distributed.

You talked a little bit about the assumption of a uniform swing. Is that usually how analysts predict the results?

Yes. And right now, we're all being very cautious (laughs) and hedging a bit. Typically, yes, everyone uses uniform swing. All the media, all the newspapers, all the broadcasters will talk about uniform swing. And it's not that bad. Labour, in 1997 in the big landslide, they outperformed it by a lot because there was tactical voting against the Conservatives. And that stayed around a bit in 2001, but apart from that, uniform national swing has been a pretty good predictor. Now you get lots of pundits and pollsters on television saying, "If there's a uniform swing, this would happen," but if one of the parties suddenly has gone from 20% to 33%, overtaking the other two, then we really don't know!

So when you say uniform swing, that's from when?

From the last election.

Right now you're predicting [at UK polling report] a hung parliament. Could you talk a little bit about what that means?

It's no overall majority, so the largest party is fewer than 326 seats. What happens in practice is there will either be some form of coalition, so two parties both taking seats in the cabinet, or there will be some form of informal pact where one party will opt to support another one without taking cabinet seats, but will vote in favor of their broad program and their budget resolutions, but take other legislation on a case by case basis.

What role, if any, do any regional differences in party support play in interpreting poll results?

The main one would be Scotland. In the past there haven't been big regional differences in swing apart from Scotland, which has quite often gone in sort of an opposite direction from the rest of the country. 1992 is sort of the obvious example - the rest of the country swung towards Labour, but actually the Conservatives gained strength in Scotland. Elsewhere in the country there's just no history of big differences, so no one pays it too much attention.

So is Scotland treated differently? I noticed there was maybe at least one pollster who was polling specifically in Scotland.

Quite a lot do - it depends who commissions it. That's probably why more separate Scottish polls exist, because there's more separate Scottish media. There isn't really a separate media for the East Midlands, or separate polls. In Scotland, there are separate newspapers so they do commission separate polls. In terms of projections, most of the time the media just do go for a simple uniform national swing, even though actually factoring in Scotland separately would make it a bit more accurate. The reason is probably part simplicity and not being bothered to do that bit, and partially because there aren't a huge number of marginal seats in Scotland, so while it would make it more accurate it's not going to make a great difference in the headline figure.

Note: Check in tomorrow for part 2 of this interview


Data is the New Sexy 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Anthony Wells posts instant reaction polls to the British debate here and here.

Daniel Heninger says Obama is souring Americans on Government; Jonathan Chait says it's the economy.

Pew Research finds a plurality one-word descriptions of the Tea Party movement are negative.

TargetPoint offers a quiz to rate your Tea Party affinity.

Nate Silver sees Marco Rubio as the favorite in Florida.

Google shares new research showing that online ads move poll numbers (via Lundry).

Tom Jensen cites evidence of an enthusiasm gap (more here).

Gary Andres says the suburbs could produce a Republican Congress.

Gary Langer shares a poll of residents of Mogadishu; Alex Lundry asks why it's ok to relax polling standards (more here).

Junkcharts takes on Frank Luntz.

And R may not be the next big thing, but data is still the new sexy.


'Malpractice?' Afraid So

Topics: John Sides , Quinnipiac University Poll , Sampling Error

As the third reference on Pollster in less than 24 hours, this post will amount to piling on, but I think it needs to be said: John Sides is right. The headline and lead on yesterday's Quinnipiac University poll does amount to "malpractice."

Here's the background. Yesterday, Quinnipiac released results from a new national survey of registered voters with the following headline:

April 21, 2010 - Obama's Bounce Goes Flat, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; But Voters Confident He Will Pick Good Judge.

Their lead paragraph explained:

President Barack Obama's job approval, which bounced slightly to a 45 - 46 percent split March 25 in the wake of his health care victory, has flattened out at 44 - 46 percent, his lowest approval rating since his inauguration, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Like Sides, I have no grudge against Quinnipiac. They have always been exceptionally responsive and willing to disclose additional results and methodological details on request. Just yesterday polling director Doug Schwartz kindly responded to my email while on vacation to direct an assistant to respond to my request for party ID numbers in Florida. But the "Bounce Goes Flat" lead is just plain wrong. Here are Obama's job approval numbers as measured by Quinnipiac since January:

2010-04-22-quinnipiac obama job.png

I'll let Sides explain:

There is no "bounce." There is no "flattening out." There is nothing but a big fat flat line. It doesn't make for a good press release, but that's the truth.

I'll be the first to concede that when writing about poll numbers it's easy to slip and describe small, non-significant differences as meaningful. I've certainly fallen into that trap myself from time to time. How many times can you write "not quite statistically significant" before readers' eyes start to glaze over? You can use "nominal" to modify "difference," but I'm guessing that few understand the implied technical meaning.

The headline and lead paragraph of a public polling release are something altogether different, especially when written by pollsters. After all, it's our job to get this stuff right. If we can't, how can we complain about the journalists and pundits who take our conclusions and run with them. Cases in point from yesterday:

Time's Mark Halperin: "Obama's Approval Flattens Out."

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire: "Just after signing the health bill, Obama's job approval rating ticked up, with 45% of voters approving and 46% disapproving. But the latest poll shows Obama's approval rating hasn't budged and now stands at the lowest level since he took office: 44% approve, 46% disapprove."

Daniel Foster on National Review's The Corner: "From Bounce to Dribble"

National Review's Jim Geraghty: "Quinnipiac: Health-Care Passage Moves Obama's Approval From 45 . . . to 44. Hey, look, it's the health-care-passage bounce! Nah, just kidding."

Those references leave out the scores of bloggers that simply quoted the entire lead sentence or paragraph.

If pollsters can get this sort of thing right, who will?


WI: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/20)

Topics: poll , Wisconsin

Rasmussen
4/20/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Senate (trends)
48% Feingold (D), 37% Leinenkugel (R)
49% Feingold (D), 38% Westlake (R)
49% Feingold (D), 43% Wall (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Leinenkugel: 34 / 37
Russ Feingold: 51 / 48 (chart)
Terrence Wall: 35 / 33
Jake Westlake: 30 / 34

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Doyle: 37 / 60 (chart)


Not a Survey That Will Not Confuse

Topics: Jean Converse , Questionnaire Design , Question wording , Quinnipiac , Stanley Presser

A message to pollsters from their elementary school grammar teachers: don't use double negatives! In their survey released today, the Quinnipiac University poll ran afoul of this principle of survey questionnaire design, and it should seem obvious why the offending questions could be confusing to a survey respondent.

Take a look at the first of these questions:

40. Do you approve or disapprove of - not using nuclear weapons against countries that do not have them?

Jean Converse and Stanley Presser, in their paper on survey questionnaire design, Survey Questions: Handcrafting the Standardized Questionnaire*, warn that "Double negatives... are to be much avoided; they can introduce needless confusion and they can creep in unobserved."

Converse and Presser give an example of a question with a double negative:

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement about teachers in the public schools: Teachers should not be required to supervise students in the halls, the lunchroom, and school parking lots.

And go on to explain why this sows confusion:

...the Disagree side gets tangled, for it means "I do not think that teachers should not be required to supervise children outside of their classooms" -- that is, teachers should be required.

Generally speaking, survey questions ought to be asked in as simple and direct a manner as possible -- for one thing, most respondents have been called with no advanced warning and likely have more important things on their minds than the 10-20 minutes of questions asked in most surveys. They certainly should not be expected to concentrate on just how many "nots" were in a given question, much less on their exact placement and meaning to the question.

Quinnipiac piled on to their hapless respondents with the following, which likely made several of the interviewees' heads spontaneously explode:

41. Do you approve or disapprove of - not using nuclear weapons against countries that do not have them, even if they launched a biological or chemical weapons attack against the United States?

The double negative was confusing enough without the additional complexity of the caveat. It's likely that many of the respondents simply didn't know what they were being asked here. The likelihood that a respondent missed at least one important word is very high, making it difficult to put much if any stock in the results reported by Quinnipiac on these particular questions.

As an added note: while we don't usually like piling on pollsters, John Sides noted yesterday that Quinnipiac's headline for their release on domestic issues inaccurately portrayed their recent results as showing an Obama "bounce" that had since "gone flat." His piece is worth clicking through to read.

*Converse, J. M., & Presser, S. (1986). Survey questions: Handcrafting the standardized questionnaire. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.


NH: 2010 House (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: New Hampshire , Poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 647 likely 1st District voters, 3.9% margin of error
827 likely 2nd District voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 House First District
Guinta (R) 46%, Shea-Porter (D) 45%

2010 House Second District
Bass (R) 47%, Swett (D) 32%

Job Approval / Disapproval First District
Pres. Obama: 45 / 49
Rep. Shea-Porter: 41 / 50

Favorable / Unfavorable First District
Frank Guinta: 23 / 25

Job Approval / Disapproval Second District
Pres. Obama: 48 / 48

Favorable / Unfavorable Second District
Charlie Bass: 35 / 34
Katrina Swett: 19 / 29


CA: 2010 Republican Primaries (Capitol Weekly 4/10-13)

Topics: California , poll

Capitol Weekly / Probolsky Research (R)
4/10-13/10; 751 likely Republican primary voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Capitol Weekly release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
47% Whitman, 19% Poizner (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
31% Campbell, 17% Fiorina, 14% DeVore (chart)


US: National Survey (Kaiser 4/9-14)

Topics: poll

Kaiser Family Foundation
4/9-14/10; 1,208 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kaiser: summary, fingings, toplines)

National

Kaiser:

Kaiser's first health tracking survey since the enactment of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act finds a public both highly aware of the law's passage and confused about the ways upcoming changes will affect them personally. Majorities are aware of most of the major provisions of the new law, even as just over half say they don't yet have enough information to judge its overall impact on them. In general, views of the law and its potential benefits remain much as they were at the time of passage, with the public divided on the merits of the measure as a whole. Provisions that are set to be implemented this year, however, are decidedly more popular, most on a bipartisan basis. Americans are getting information about the new law from a variety of sources, but cable news tops the list of people's "most important" information sources.

Given what you know about the new health reform law, do you have a generally
favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?

46% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable (chart)


US: National Survey (Quinnipiac 4/14-19)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
4/14-19/10; 1,930 registered voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

National

Obama Job Approval / Disapproval
Foreign Policy: 48 / 42 (chart)
Afghanistan: 49 / 39
Terrorism: 49 / 41
Nuclear Weapons Policy: 48 / 37
Israelis & Palestinians: 35 / 44
Iran: 44 / 43

Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
56% Right thing
36% Not involved

Do you approve or disapprove of - cutting the number of United States nuclear weapons?
54% Approve, 42% Disapprove


FL: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/21)

Topics: Florida , poll

Rasmussen
4/21/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Florida

2010 Senate
37% Rubio (R), 30% Crist (i), 22% Meek (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Charlie Crist: 55 / 40 (chart)
Kendrick Meek: 38 / 31
Marco Rubio: 51 / 37

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 44 / 54 (chart)
Gov. Crist: 56 / 43 (chart)


Florida Senate: Playing 'What If'

Topics: 2010 , Charlie Crist , Florida , independents , Marco Rubio , Party Identification

We have been kicking around various "what if" scenarios on a potential three-way Senate race in Florida this afternoon. It's an incomplete and highly speculative exercise, but also, well, fun...and we want to let our readers in on it via a spreadsheet embedded at the end of this post. I'll get to my hunches below. First, let me explain the context.

As implied in my post last week, there is great potential for change in the early "horse race" numbers in Florida. Whenever pollsters ask voters to choose between well known incumbent and a lesser known challenger, the margin between the two usually narrows as the campaign gets underway. Kendrick Meek's 26% name recognition (on the Quinnipiac poll) and $3.4 million cash on-hand qualifies him as just such a challenger.

Add the wild-card of an independent candidacy by Republican Governor Charlie Crist and you have a situation where the early trial-heat results are almost certain to change between now and November. But in what direction?

Unlike most independent and third party candidates, Crist begins with near universal name recognition. He is currently the best known of the three candidates. But can Crist maintain (and grow) his current support or will it fizzle? Historical precedent exists for either scenario. In one corner are candidates like Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders or Lowell Weicker -- well known public figures who held their early support and won. In the other are initially well known independent candidates like Ross Perot in 1992, Kinky Friedman in Texas in 2006 or Marshall Coleman in Virginia in 1994 -- well known independent candidates whose support fades as the election approaches. (Both Harry Enten, who contributed to this post, and Chris Cillizza offer reasons why Crist is no Lieberman).

With these cautions in mind, consider the cross-tabulations by party identification for three recent polls that tested a three-way trial-heat between Democrat Meek, likely Republican nominee Marco Rubio and Crist as an independent. (I have not yet included the recent Rasmussen survey, because their full party tabulation and party composition are hidden behind a subscription wall. I emailed Rasmussen to request their results and will update this post accordingly should they respond). (Update - 4/22: Rasmussen fielded a new survey yesterday and provided both the results by party and their party composition included in the chart below).

2010-04-22-FL-by-party-revised.png

As a pollster, what intrigues me most about this table is the potential for change. Specifically, I have three questions:

  1. What is Charlie Crist's floor among Republicans? How much of his support among Republicans will persist as the reality of an independent candidacy sinks in and Rubio wins more endorsements from prominent Republicans?

  2. What is the ceiling on Kendrick Meek's potential support among Democrats? Meek's Democratic support will almost certainly rise as his recognition increases, but how high? (The related converse: What is Crist's floor among Democrats?)

  3. What is Meek's potential among independents? As I have written previously, many that initially identify as independents are really closet partisans that "lean" to a party.

Now I have a few hunches about the answers to those questions -- and a spreadsheet that allows you to plug in your own answers and play "what if" -- but first some warnings.

The table above includes the party composition of each poll and, for reference, the results for partisan composition from both the 2008 and 2006 exit polls. You have probably already noticed some big differences in party composition for the polls, let me make this warning as loud and clear as I can: It is a MISTAKE to assume that differences in party ID are ONLY about sampling. Yes, different polls may sample different kinds of people; some may include more Democrats or more Republicans due to either their likely voter model or some hidden response bias. But polls also differ in the way they measure party identification. Some push harder than other for an answer, and the push is not just about the question text. It also involves the mode (live interviewer or automated) and how pollsters that use live interviewers train them to handle uncertain respondents.

Complicating all of this further is that the above tabulations differ in the way they define the independent category. Quinnipiac excludes those who identify with a third party, or who say they "don't know" what they consider themselves, Research 2000 appears to include them.

But back to my hunches: Meek's support is almost certain to rise to at least 70% among Democrats and 80% is not unreasonable (Crist won just 14% of Democrats in 2006). A goal of 30% for Meek among independents also seems reasonable (given that many independent identifiers lean and typically vote Democratic). So if Crist holds a third of Republicans, and we assume a party composition that's the average of the three polls, Meek leads by a comfortable margin.

On the other hand, flip party composition to match the 2006 exit poll, drop Meek to 75% among Democrats (bumping Christ up to 20%) and you get a Meek-Rubio dead heat. Bump the Republican party ID advantage up a point or two and Rubio wins narrowly. Drop Meek to 70% among Democrats and bump Rubio up to 75% among Republicans and Rubio wins comfortably.

One thing becomes clear in all of this: Crist has a hard time prevailing unless he grows his support beyond what he currently receives in a three-way race. And that won't be easy.

But I readily concede that my hunches are educated guesses, at best. What's your take?

PS: Thanks to the Quinnipiac University poll for sharing their party composition data.


Bad CBS/NYT poll question on tax burden

Topics: CBS , CBS/New York Times , New York Times , Taxes

If you want to see what the public believes about the size of the federal income burden, this CBS/New York Times poll question is not the way to do it:

On average, about what percentage of their household incomes would you guess most Americans pay in federal income taxes each year -- less than 10 percent, between 10 and 20 percent, between 20 and 30 percent, between 40 and 50 percent, or more than 50 percent, or don't you know enough to say?

As a reader pointed out to me, there's no way for a respondent to know how to answer this question due to the ambiguity inherent in combining "most Americans" with "[o]n average." Many respondents might think that "most Americans" can't be grouped into one of those categories, and others might be confused by how to define "most."

As it turns out, the bottom four quintiles (i.e. the bottom 80%) pay an average effective individual federal income tax rate of less than ten percent -- an answer that was given by only 5% of respondents to the poll. However, as David Leonhardt recently pointed out, federal income taxes are only part of the overall federal tax burden; the average effective federal tax rate including payroll taxes, corporate taxes, and federal excise taxes is 22%. This number, rather than the income tax burden, is probably the more relevant one to poll on since most Americans pay more in payroll taxes than they do in income tax. Let's hope CBS and the Times go back to the drawing board with this question.

Update 4/21 8:24 PM: In response to comments on my blog, I've updated the post to clarify some ambiguous language and to correct an error (following Leonhardt, I wrongly classified capital gains taxes as separate from, rather than part of, individual federal income taxes).

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


Candidate Beardedness 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Anthony Salvanto assesses Charlie Crist's potential as an independent.

Jennifer Agiesta discusses takeaways from recent polling on the Tea Party movement.

John Sides cites Quinnipiac for malpractice.

Markos Moulitsas argues that the American public strongly supports immigration reform.

Mark Mellman supports strong regulation on Wall Street.

Gallup adds two new political blogs.

USA Today reports Census response rate suprisingly close to 2000.

Ipsos finds that intent to participate in the census has grown.

David Hill reviews research on "candidate beardedness."


CA: 2010 Gov Primary (Whitman 4/18-19)

Topics: poll

McLaughlin (R) for Meg Whitman
4/18-19/10; 600 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Whitman release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
55% Whitman, 24% Poizner (chart)


CA: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/19)

Topics: California , poll

Rasmussen
4/19/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

California

2010 Governor
44% Brown (D), 38% Whitman (R) (chart)
50% Brown (D), 32% Poizner (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Meg Whitman: 47 / 43
Jerry Brown: 51 / 42
Steve Poizner: 38 / 46

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 60 / 39 (chart)
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 29 / 70 (chart)


NC: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/19)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

Rasmussen
4/19/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
50% Burr (R), 32% Marshall (D) (chart)
53% Burr (R), 31% Cunningham (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Burr: 55 / 31 (chart)
Elaine Marshall: 36 / 40
Cal Cunningham: 34 / 37

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 57 (chart)
Gov. Perdue: 45 / 54 (chart)


ME: 2010 Gov Primary (GQR 4/11-14)

Topics: Maine , poll

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)
4/11-14/10; 587 likely Democratic primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(GQR release)

Maine

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
36% Mitchell, 16% Rowe, 13% McGowan, 5% Richardson, 4% Scarcelli


NH: Republican Primaries (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 642 likely Republican primary voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
Ayotte 43%, Binnie 19%, Bender 11%, Lamontagne 5%, Alciere 1%

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
Stephen 29%, Testerman 15%, Kimball 10%

2012 President: Republican Primary
Romney 39%, Palin 13%, Gingrich 11%, Huckabee 11%, Paul 7%, Pawlenty 3%, Barbour 1%, Santorum 1%


US: National Survey (ARG 4/17-20)

Topics: poll

American Research Group
4/17-20/10; 1,100 adults, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ARG release)

National

Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 49% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 88 / 8 (chart)
Reps: 11 / 87 (chart)
Inds: 38 / 58 (chart)
Economy: 43 / 53 (chart)


AZ: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/15)

Topics: Arizona , poll

Rasmussen
4/15/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Arizona

2010 Governor
Brewer (R) 44%, Goddard (D) 40%
Martin (R) 47%, Goddard (D) 34%
Munger (R) 44%, Goddard (D) 37%
Mills (R) 46%, Goddard (D) 37%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Terry Goddard: 49 / 42
Jan Brewer: 45 / 50
Dean Martin: 43 / 31
John Munger: 28 / 37
Buz Mills: 41 / 31

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 34 / 64
Gov. Brewer: 40 / 56


US: National Survey (Quinnipiac 4/14-19)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
4/14-19/10; 1,930 registered voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

National

Obama Job Approval
44% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 82 / 10 (chart)
Reps: 11 / 83 (chart)
Inds: 38 / 50 (chart)
Economy: 40 / 55 (chart)
Health care: 40 / 55 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
20% Approve, 71% Disapprove (chart)

State of the Country
31% Satisfied, 69% Dissatisfied (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Republican Party: 33 / 47
Democratic Party: 32 / 52
Tea party movement: 32 / 31

Do you approve or disapprove of the federal health care overhaul?
39% Approve, 53% Disapprove (chart)


Getting Sleepy 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Gallup conducts a split-sample survey on regulation of "Wall Street" vs "financial institutions.

Chris Bowers updates his Senate forecast with and without Rasmussen and Research 2000.

Reid Wilson finds many Democratic members of Congress are holding off polling their districts.

Jeffrey Jones charts Obama's quarterly approval.

Renard Sexton continues his discussion on the Liberal Democrats' surge in the UK.

Pew Research Center finds coverage of the Brown-Coakley race focused heavily on polling.

OKTrends breaks new frontiers in data-driven blogging (via Nyhan).

FlowingData charts times of day spent asleep from infancy to retirement (via Sullivan).


NH: 2010 Sen (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: new hampshire , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 1,474 likely voters, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate (trends)
Ayotte (R) 47%, Hodes (D) 40% (chart)
Hodes (D) 43%, Lamontagne (R) 38% (chart)
Binnie (R) 46%, Hodes (D) 41% (chart)
Hodes (D) 43%, Bender (R) 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kelly Ayotte: 34 / 24
Paul Hodes: 32 / 39
Ovide Lamontagne: 12 / 28
Bill Binnie: 25 / 23
Jim Bender: 6 / 18

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 48 (chart)
Sen. Gregg : 44 / 37
Sen. Shaheen : 42 / 48


FL: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/15)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
4/15/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Florida

2010 Governor
45% McCollum (R), 38% Sink (D) (chart)

Favorabe / Unfavorable
Bill McCollum: 50 / 31
Alex Sink: 43 / 37

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 51 / 49 (chart)
Gov. Crist: 57 / 42 (chart)


US: Generic Ballot (Zogby 4/16-19)

Topics: poll

Zogby
4/16-19/10; 2,018 likely voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Zogby release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
44% Republican, 42% Democrat (chart)

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)


PA-12: House (McLaughlin 4/15)


McLaughlin & Associates (R) / American Action Network*
4/15/10; 300 likely voters, 5.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(McLaughlin release)

*American Action Network promotes "center-right policies based on the principles of freedom, limited government, American exceptionalism, and strong national security."

Pennsylvania Twelfth Congressional District

2010 Representative
40% Critz (D), 39% Burns (R)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 31 / 68
Rep. Nancy Pelosi: 20 / 76

Note: This election is a special election to fill the seat of John Murtha (D-PA), who passed away earlier this year.


PA-12: House (PPP 4/17-18)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
4/17-18/10; 1,197 likely voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated Phone
(PPP release)

Pennsylvania Twelfth Congressional District

2010 Representative
44% Burns (R), 41% Critz (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Tim Burns: 45 / 26
Mark Critz: 41 / 34
Nancy Pelosi: 24 / 64

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 33 / 57

"Would you like to see the next Representative from your district carry on John Murtha's legacy?"
Yes: 49%, No: 37%

Note: This election is a special election to fill the seat of John Murtha (D-PA), who passed away earlier this year.


PA: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/15)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Rasmussen
4/15/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Governor
48% Corbett (R), 27% Wagner (D) (chart)
49% Corbett (R), 29% Hoeffel (D) (chart)
45% Corbett (R), 36% Onorato (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Tom Corbett: 56 / 29
Jack Wagner: 32 / 36
Dan Onorato: 41 / 32
Joe Hoeffel: 33 / 37

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 47 / 52 (chart)


Fishy Charts 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

John Sides, Chris Cilizza, Jonathan Chait, and Mark Murray react to the Pew poll on trust in government.

Doug Schoen & Pat Caddell offer Democrats advice in how to avoid a bloodbath in 2010; Ezra Klein advises Democrats to avoid Schoen & Caddell; Ed Kilgore has more.

Chris Bowers notes a record number of Senators are underwater in primary contests.

Chris Bowers, Renard Sexton and John O'Sullivan consider the shift in UK election polling; Sexton discusses selection bias in UK polling (Part 1, Part 2).

Nate Silver says Rasmussen's likely voter model alone does not explain their house effect.

Patrick Murray discusses how seemingly conflicting poll results might be a sign of nuance in public opinion.

Frank Newport charts declining confidence in big banks.

Lymari Morales shares fast facts on climate change from Gallup.

PPP tries a split form experiment to test a question on offshore drilling.

Carl Bialik examines uncertainty in government economic statistics; more here.

The BBC finds world opinion warming to the United States (via Sullivan).

D'Vera Cohn notes most Tea party supporters say they have or will return their Census forms.

Jim Geraghty points out an interesting interpretation of a Florida senate poll.

Junk Charts critiques a fishy chart.


US: Generic Ballot (Gallup, Rasmussen 4/12-18)

Topics: poll

National

Gallup
4/12-18/10; 1,600 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republicam, 43% Democrat (chart)


Rasmussen
4/12-18/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 36% Democrat (chart)


IN: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 4/13-14)

Topics: Indiana , Poll

Rasmussen
4/13-14/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
54% Coats (R), 33% Ellsworth (D)
50% Hostettler (R), 33% Ellsworth (D)
41% Stutzman (R), 36% Ellsworth (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Coats: 61 / 21
John Hostettler: 47 / 30
Brad Ellsworth: 40 / 37
Marlin Stutzman: 37 / 30

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 60
Gov. Daniels: 60 / 38


US: 2012 Pres Primary (PPP 4/9-11)

Topics: poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
49-11/10; 400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release

National

2012 President: Republican Primary
33% Romney, 27% Huckabee, 23% Palin


FL: 2010 Gov (Quinnipiac 4/8-13)

Topics: Florida , Poll

Quinnipiac
4/8-13/10; 1,250 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
497 Republicans, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
56% McCollum, 7% Dockery (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
40% McCollum, 36% Sink (chart)
37% Sink, 28% Dockery

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bill McCollum: 38 / 18
Alex Sink: 22 / 15
Paula Dockery: 9 / 5


TX: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 4/14)

Topics: Poll , Texas

Rasmussen
4/14/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen Release)

Texas

2010 Governor: General Election
48% Perry, 44% White

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Perry: 59 / 37
Bill White: 54 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pre. Obama: 42 / 58
Gov. Perry: 59 / 40


MA: 2010 Gov (WNEC 4/11-15)

Topics: poll

Western New England College
528 adults, 4% margin of error
4/11-15/10; 481 registered voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(WNEC release)

Massachusetts

2010 Governor
34% Patrick, 29% Cahill, 27% Baker

Favorable / Unfavorable
Deval Patrick: 40 / 48
Tim Cahill: 32 / 18
Charles Baker: 20 / 13

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Patrick: 34 / 48


NY: 2010 Gov (Siena 4/12-15)

Topics: New York , poll

Siena
4/12-15/10; 806 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Siena: release, crosstabs)

New York

2010 Governor: Republican Primary (trends)
29% Lazio, 15% Levy, 13% Paladino

2010 Senate: Republican Primary (trends)
60% Pataki*, 5% DioGuardi, 2% Blakeman, 2% Malpass
24% DioGuardi, 7% Blakeman, 5% Malpass

2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
61% Cuomo, 24% Lazio (chart)
58% Cuomo, 23% Levy
64% Cuomo, 19% Paladino

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
47% Pataki*, 38% Gillibrand (chart)
46% Gillibrand, 26% Blakeman (chart)
46% Gillibrand, 27% DioGuardi
46% Gillibrand, 24% Malpass

*Note: George Pataki has announced that he will not run for Senate

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Paterson: 25 / 65 (chart)
Andrew Cuomo: 66 / 18
Rick Lazio: 29 / 25
Kirsten Gillibrand: 34 / 25 (chart)
George Pataki: 62 / 29
Barack Obama: 59 / 35 (chart)
Joe DioGuardi: 10 / 8
Bruce Blakeman: 6 / 6
David Malpass: 5 / 5
Steve Levy: 21 / 16
Carl Paladino: 11 / 13
Eliot Spitzer: 33 / 59

Job Rating
Gov. Paterson: 17% Excellent/Good, 83% Fair/Poor (chart)


US: Tea Parties (Politico 4/15)

Topics: poll

Politico / TargetPoint
4/15/10; "457 people at the Washington DC Tax Day Tea Party rally the evening of April 15, 2010 on the Washington Monument grounds," 5% margin of error*
Mode: Self-administered questionnaire "exit poll"
(Politico story, TargetPoint release)

*Note: Margin of error for this survey is for "the value that would be obtained if all the attendees at the event were interviewed using the same procedure"

Politico:

"Tea party activists are divided roughly into two camps, according to a new POLITICO/TargetPoint poll: one that's libertarian-minded and largely indifferent to hot-button values issues and another that's culturally conservative and equally concerned about social and fiscal issues.

The survey, an exit poll conducted Thursday by Edison Research at the massive Tax Day protest on the National Mall, found that the attendees were largely hostile to President Barack Obama and the national Democratic Party -- three-quarters believe the president "is pursuing a socialist agenda."

Yet they aren't enamored of the Republican Party as an alternative. Overall, three out of four tea party attendees said they were "scared about the direction" of the country and "want to send a message to both political parties.""


AZ: 2010 Gov Primary (Rasmussen 4/13)

Topics: Arizona , poll

Rasmussen
4/13/10; 510 likely Republican primary voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Arizona

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
26% Brewer, 18% Mills, 14% Munger, 12% Martin


US: Trust in Government (Pew 3/11-21)

Topics: poll

Pew Research Center
3/11-21/10; 2,505 adults, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew: overview, complete report, Andrew Kohut WSJ Op-Ed)

National

Pew:

"By almost every conceivable measure Americans are less positive and more critical of government these days. A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government - a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan-based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials.

Rather than an activist government to deal with the nation's top problems, the public now wants government reformed and growing numbers want its power curtailed. With the exception of greater regulation of major financial institutions, there is less of an appetite for government solutions to the nation's problems - including more government control over the economy - than there was when Barack Obama first took office."


When to Watch Likely Voters?

Topics: Health Care Reform , Kaiser Family Foundation , Likely Voters , National Journal column

My column for this week looks at the issue of "likely voters" as identified on public opinion surveys from a slightly different perspective: When should we pay more attention to subset of voters that pollsters consider most likely to vote? The answer is obvious when looking at horse race numbers a few weeks before an election, but far less so when considering opinion on issues of public policy. Please click through to read it all.

And thanks to Mollyann Brody, Claudia Deane and Carolina Gutierrez at the Kaiser Family Foundation for providing the data tabulation included in the column.


 

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