Pollster.com

July 25, 2010 - July 31, 2010

 

Democratic Surge? Part II

Topics: 2010 , Gallup , Generic House Vote

Last week, I argued that a reported “jump” for Democrats in Gallup’s weekly tracking of the national generic U.S. House ballot was most likely a statistical blip. I boldly predicted that “more data” this week would “likely settle the issue.” That latter assertion turned out to be wrong, as the issue isn’t settled, but I’m still not convinced that we’re seeing a real shift in voter preferences nationally.

Let’s review: Generally speaking, the generic House ballot is a poll question that asks registered or likely voters whether they would support "the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate" in their congressional district if the election were held today. Since March, Gallup has released a weekly result based on roughly 1,600 interviews of registered voters that has averaged a 46% to 46% dead heat, but mostly varied within the expected margin-of-error range of plus or minus 3%.

Last week’s Gallup result showed Democrats with a six-point lead (49% to 43%), a result that I argued was likely the sort of random statistical “blip” we should expect from time to time with this sort of tracking survey. This week, Gallup reported a Democratic margin is a slightly narrower four points (48% to 44%), but Gallup’s analysis noted that it “marks the second straight week in which Democrats have held an edge of at least four percentage points” and “the first time either party has held an advantage of that size for two consecutive weeks” in Gallup’s tracking.

So this week’s data doesn’t resolve things. As Charlie Cook writes today, these results mark “one of those periods of uncertainty” where those of us who watch polls closely are unsure whether the results “signal a key turning point in public opinion…just a hiccup, a passing blip…[or] an outlier poll, a statistical anomaly that is the political equivalent of a false positive medical test.”

I’m still dubious that the we are seeing a real change in voter preferences. First, while this week’s Gallup’s numbers do tend to confirm last week’s upward turn, they are also statistically consistent with the 46%-to-46% result that Gallup has shown on average since March. Combining samples for the last two weeks might yield a statistically significant difference from the average, although it would be close.

Second, none of the other pollsters that fielded national media surveys in recent weeks confirm a “jump” in the Democratic direction since the passage of financial reform legislation on July 16. While these surveys have “house effects” that produce different results over time, we can look at trends for individual pollsters. Six (Ipsos, Rasmussen, CNN/ORC and Zogby) show nominal shifts in the Republican direction as compared to their average result earlier this year, and one (YouGov/Polimetrix) shows no change. Only Gallup shows a shift to the Democrats.

Third, Charlie Cook took the next logical step and informally “canvassed several pollsters who see large quantities of data from around the country.” These are the campaign consultants that have been doing benchmark and tracking surveys for their clients over the summer. “None,” he writes, “seems to have detected any shifts in the past two weeks.”

Charlie also makes the point that he sees “no defining event has taken place,” including passage of the banking bill, “that would have triggered a significant shift in this year’s race” and says the pollsters he talked to are also “at a loss in figuring out what would have triggered a change.” Count me as similarly puzzled.

That said, I am not arguing that we ignore the Gallup data. Aside from its well-deserved reputation, Gallup is also the only organization polling on the generic ballot in recent weeks which interviews Americans on their landline and cellphones. It would be surprising for the cellphone interviewing to make that big a difference, but we can’t rule that possibility out.

So, as my friend Charlie Cook counsels, we need to “sit tight” and wait for more data.

[Cross-posted at Huffington Post]


Some Perspective on Real GDP Growth


RealGDPGrowth.png

Today's GDP numbers provide little comfort to Democrats hoping a robust "recovery summer" will aid them in November. GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, down from 3.7% in the first quarter and 5.0% in the 4th quarter of 2009.

The GOP will point to falling growth as proof of Democratic failure, and discouraged Dems who have had a hard time selling even real gains are unlikely to successfully use this latest report to their advantage.

But as always, let's take a moment for some perspective based on the data from the four recessions since 1980.

President Reagan benefitted from very large growth rates in the four quarters following the end of his recession. Like Obama, Reagan inherited a terrible economic situation, and suffered from it throughout his first two years in office. But beginning in the fourth quarter of 1982, GDP growth rebounded very strongly. Over the next four quarters, real GDP grew an average of 5.7%. If we leave out the fourth quarter of 1982, which had a tiny +0.3% growth though technically not part of the recession quarters, then Reagan enjoyed an astonishing average GDP growth of 7.8%, providing the foundation for his "Morning again in America" reelection campaign in 1984.

The two Bush presidencies did not enjoy recoveries of anything like that of Reagan. President G. H. W. Bush suffered from just a 2.6% average growth rate in the four quarters following the 1991 recession, though the rate bumped up to over 4% more than a year after the end of the recession. That sluggish initial recovery set the narrative President Clinton used in the 1992 campaign, even through growth in 1992 was a robust 4% or more.

President George W. Bush likewise faced slow growth following the 2001 recession, with average growth of only 2.3% in the four quarters after the recession. While 9/11 undoubtedly affected the fourth quarter of 2001 (1.4% growth), the next three quarters were 3.5%, 2.1% and 2.0%, followed with a fifth quarter of just +0.1% which is not included in the average. Excluding the post 9/11 quarter and including the later quarter would lower the average growth even more.

Which brings us to President Obama. In the four quarters since the end of the recession (as defined by the end of shrinking GDP in 2009Q2), real GDP has grown an average of 3.2% each quarter. So in fact, the current recovery is a bit stronger than either of the two under Presidents Bush, though well below the extremely strong rate under President Reagan.

Even the current disappointing quarter at 2.4% is better than the average of 2.3% in 2001-2.

So a rational perspective would be that we are recovering better than in the previous two recessions, which were much less dire than the Bush-Obama recession, but well short of the energy that propelled the Reagan recovery.

For November, this rate of growth does not bode well for changing the narrative from recession to recovery, as the White House had no doubt hoped and bet on. The trend of declining growth rates over the past three quarters adds to worry that recovery will be slow or even threaten to dip back into recession. Ironically, of course, a stimulus that might enhance the macro-economy is now politically untenable as even many Democrats have accepted Republican arguments that stimulus spending didn't and doesn't work. Decades of macro-economic evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.


Themeless 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Jennifer Agiesta notes that Obama is not popular in Democratic target districts.

DemFromCT and Charles Lemos tout a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll showing health care reform increasing in popularity; Jonathan Chait is wary and breaks down the demographics.

Seth Masket projects Republicans to gain 40-50 seats in the House.

Patrick Ottenhoff speculates that eliminating the electoral college would require more emphasis on local issues.

Gary Andres sees partisan shifts boosting Republicans in 2010.

Nate Silver introduces a new "Partisan Propensity Index."

Elena Debnam notes that most governors have dropping approval ratings.

Andrew Sullivan discusses the electoral implications of demands for ideological purity.

Spencer Ackerman flags a Pew poll showing that most Pakistanis don't know about US drone strikes (via Sullivan).


US: National Survey (Economist 7/24-27)

Topics: National , poll

Economist / YouGov
7/24-27/10; 1,000 adults, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Economist release)

National

Obama Job Approval
44% Approve, 50% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 75 / 19 (chart)
Reps: 8 / 87 (chart)
Inds: 41 / 56 (chart)
Economy: 36 / 55 (chart)
Health care: 41 / 50 (chart)

State of the Country
32% Right Direction, 52% Wrong Track (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
13% Approve, 59% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Registered voters (n=713): 46% Democrat, 43% Republican (chart)
All adults: 43% Democrat, 39% Republican


WI: 45% Barrett, 44% Neumann (Rasmussen 7/27)

Topics: poll , Wisconsin

Rasmussen
7/27/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Governor
45% Barrett (D), 44% Neumann (R) (chart)
50% Walker (R), 43% Barrett (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Neumann: 47 / 42
Scott Walker: 55 / 36
Tom Barrett: 50 / 43


MI: 2010 Governor Primaries (EPIC-MRA 7/26-27)

Topics: Michigan , poll

EPIC-MRA / Detroit Free Press / WXYZ / WOOD / WILX / WJRT
7/26-27/10; 400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(EPIC-MRA: Democrats, Republicans)

Michigan

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
26% Snyder, 24% Cox, 23% Hoekstra, 10% Bouchard, 1% George

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
40% Bernero, 32% Dillon


OK: 57% Fallin, 36% Askins (Rasmussen 7/28)

Topics: Oklahoma , poll

Rasmussen
7/28/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

OKlahoma

2010 Governor
57% Fallin (R), 36% Askins (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mary Fallin: 67 / 26
Jari Askins: 66 / 35

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 36 / 65
Gov. Henry: 59 / 37


WA: 49% Murray, 47% Rossi (Rasmussen 7/28)

Topics: poll , Washington

Rasmussen
7/28/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Washington

2010 Senate
49% Murray (D), 47% Rossi (R) (chart)
48% Murray (D), 45% Didier (R) (chart)
48% Murray (D), 42% Akers (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dino Rossi: 52 / 44
Patty Murray: 51 / 46
Clint Didier: 44 / 32
Paul Akers: 38 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 50 / 49
Gov. Gregoire: 46 54


PA: 45% Toomey, 39% Sestak (Rasmussen 7/28)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Rasmussen
7/28/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
45% Toomey (R), 39% Sestak (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 54 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 42 / 59 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Pat Toomey: 57 / 30
Joe Sestak: 48 / 42


NV: 43% Reid, 42% Angle (LVRJ 7/26-28)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Las Vegas Review Journal / Mason-Dixon
7/26-28/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(LVRJ release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
43% Reid (D), 42% Angle (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 38 / 51 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 38 / 47

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 55 (chart)


FL: 39% Crist, 33% Rubio, 13% Meek (Quinnipiac 7/22-27)

Topics: Florida , poll


Quinnipiac
7/22-27/10; 969 registered voters, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Governor
37% McCollum (R), 26% Sink (D), 14% Chiles (i) (chart)
29% Scott (R), 27% Sink (D), 14% Chiles (i)

2010 Senate
39% Crist (i), 33% Rubio (R), 13% Meek (D) (chart)
37% Crist (i), 32% Rubio (R), 17% Greene (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kendrick Meek: 17 / 17
Jeff Greene: 20 / 15
Marco Rubio: 35 / 24
Charlie Crist: 49 / 35 (chart)
Bill McCollum: 27 / 43
Alex Sink: 25 / 15
Rick Scott: 29 / 30
Bud Chiles: 15 / 10

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 53 / 37 (chart)
Sen. Nelson: 46 / 30 (chart)
Sen. LeMieux: 21 / 25 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 46 / 50 (chart)


US: National Survey (Fox 7/27-28)

Topics: Generic House Vote , national , poll

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
7/27-28/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
336 Democrats, 5% margin of error
366 Republicans, 5% margin of error
140 independents, 8% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox News: Immigration, Obama and Congress)

National

Obama Job Approval
43% Approve, 50% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 80 / 15 (chart)
Reps: 14 / 80 (chart)
Inds: 36 / 56 (chart)
Economy: 38 / 59 (chart)
Health Care: 41 / 55 (chart)
Job Creation: 36 / 57
Afghanistan: 42 / 47
Immigration: 35 / 54
Race relations: 50 / 34

Congress Job Approval
21% Approve, 71% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
47% Republican, 36% Democrat (chart)

If Republican win Congress, things will change for the
37% Better, 21% Worse, 38% No change

If it were possible to locate most illegal immigrants currently in the United States, would you favor deporting as many as possible or would you favor setting up a system for them to become legal residents?
45% Deport, 49% Set up system

Favor or Oppose Arizona's new immigration law
50% Favor, 31% Oppose

Arizona officials say they passed the new immigration law because the federal government was failing to enforce existing law against illegal entry into the United States. Do you think the federal government is -- or is not -- enforcing existing laws against illegal entry into the country?
21% Yes, 72% No

Party ID
37% Democrat, 41% Republican, 16% independent (chart)


WI: 48% Johnson, 46% Feingold (Rasmussen 7/27)

Topics: poll , Wisconsin

Rasmussen
7/27/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Senate
48% Johnson (R), 46% Feingold (D) (chart)
49% Feingold (D), 39% Westlake (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Russ Feingold: 52 / 44 (chart)
Jake Westlake: 34 / 35
Ron Johnson: 51 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 51 / 48 (chart)
Gov. Doyle: 38 / 60 (chart)


Chart Confusion 'Outliers'

Topics: outliers

Sam Stein says President Obama has spent more on polling than President Bush.

Nate Silver questions a DCCC memo on whether the Democrats can lose the House; Sean Trende has more.

Drew Altman digs deeper into the views of seniors on the health reform law.

PPP finds Californians prefer Grey Davis to Arnold Schwarzenegger in a hypothetical matchup; Jonathan Chait says it's a sign that Americans hate everyone.

Ryan Grim reports on an unusually big error made in an interest group's public poll report.

Nathan Yau scowls at charts intended to confuse rather than inform.


NV: 50% Sandoval, 40% Reid (Rasmussen 7/27)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Rasmussen
7/27/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Governor
50% Sandoval (R), 40% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brian Sandoval: 62 / 32
Rory Reid: 43 / 52


IL: 44% Brady, 37% Quinn (Rasmussen 7/26)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Rasmussen
7/26/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Governor
44% Brady (R), 37% Quinn (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Pat Quinn: 41 / 55
Bill Brady: 47 / 35

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 43
Gov. Quinn: 37 / 61


NH: 2010 Governor (PPP 7/23-25)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-25/10; 900 likely voters, 3.35 margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Governor
48% Lynch (D), 28% Emiro (R)
52% Lynch (D), 29% Kimball (R) (chart)
51% Lynch (D), 34% Stephen (R) (chart)
52% Lynch (D), 28% Testerman (R) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Lynch: 52 / 36 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Frank Emiro: 8 / 17
Jack Kimball: 6 / 16
John Stephen: 14 / 21
Karen Testerman: 6 / 17


US: Health Care (Kaiser 7/8-13)

Topics: National , poll

Kaiser Family Foundation
7/8-13/10; 1,504 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kaiser: summary, toplines)

National

As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed into law earlier this year. Given what you know about the new health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?
50% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable (chart)

Do you think ________ will be better off or worse off under the new health reform law, or don't you think it will make much difference?
You and your family: 32% Better, 29% Worse, 33% No difference
The country as a whole: 325 Better, 35% Worse, 15% No difference
Seniors: 36% Better, 36% Worse, 18% No difference
Medicare: 33% Better, 30% Worse, 22% No difference

Do you feel you understand what the impact of the health reform law will be on you and your family, or not?
63% Yes, 32% No

Party ID
37% Democrat, 22% Republican, 30% independent (chart)


MO: 49% Blunt, 43% Carnahan (Rasmussen 7/27)

Topics: Missouri , poll

Rasmussen
7/27/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Missouri

2010 Senate
49% Blunt (R), 43% Carnahan (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 54 / 41
Robin Carnahan: 48 / 49

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 44 / 56 (chart)
Gov. Nixon: 56 / 39 (chart)


CO: 44% Bennet, 40% Romanoff (Zata3 7/27)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Zata3 (D)
7/27/10; 800 likely Democratic Primary voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Zata3 release)

Colorado

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
44% Bennet, 40% Romanoff (trend)


The persistence of the death panels myth


The Washington Post reports on a new Kaiser poll showing that the "death panel" myth that plagued debate (PDF) over health care reform is still a significant problem:

The poll found that misconceptions about the legislation persist, including the "death panel" falsehood propagated by opponents of the legislation.

"A year after the town meeting wars of last summer, a striking 36% of seniors said that the law 'allowed a government panel to make decisions about end of life care for people on Medicare', and another 17% said they didn't know," Kaiser Family Foundation chief executive Drew Altman wrote.

Here's the question Kaiser asked:

I'm going to read you a list of specific ways the new health reform law may or may not impact Medicare. For each, please tell me if you think it is something the law does or does not do... Would you say the law does or does not allow a government panel to make decisions about end‐of‐life care for people on Medicare?

The question references the charge, made originally by Sarah Palin, that the health care reform bill would create a "death panel" in which bureaucrats decide whether seniors are "worthy of health care." However, even experts who opposed the plan said the charges were false. While the health care reform law does create an independent board that will make proposals to Congress to restrain Medicare costs, the legislation specifically states that "The proposal shall not include any recommendation to ration health care... or otherwise restrict benefits" (as Media Matters points out). Moreover, these would be systemwide policy changes for Medicare, not specific decisions about end-of-life care for individual patients as Palin suggested.

Here are the crosstabs from the poll in graphical form -- it turns out that seniors have somewhat more accurate perceptions than those under 65:

Kaiser-dp

Among the population as a whole, 41% said they believed the law does allow a government panel to make decisions about end‐of‐life care for people on Medicare and an additional 16% said they didn't know. The corresponding figures were 43% and 16% for those under 65 and 36% and 17% for those who are 65 years or older.

As expected, motivated reasoning appears to play an important role in the persistence of the misperception. Kaiser found that "those [seniors] with an unfavorable view are ... more likely to incorrectly think the law includes cuts in benefits or that it allows a government panel to make end‐of‐life care decisions." 55% of seniors with an unfavorable view of the law believed in the death panel myth, while only 17% of those with a favorable view did so.

For more analysis of the development of the death panel myth and the reasons it is so difficult to correct, see my article "Why the 'Death Panel' Myth Wouldn't Die: Misinformation in the Health Care Reform Debate (PDF) from a recent issue of The Forum.

[Cross-posted at brendan-nyhan.com]


OR: 46% Dudley, 44% Kitzhaber (SurveyUSA 7/25-27)

Topics: Oregon , poll

SurveyUSA / KATU-TV
7/25-27/10; 567 likely voters, 4.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Oregon

2010 Governor
46% Dudley (R), 44% Kitzhaber (D)

2010 Senate
53% Wyden (D), 35% Huffman (R) (chart)


CA: 2010 Senate, Governor (PPIC 7/6-20)

Topics: Californai , poll

Public Policy Institute of California
7/6-20/10; 2,502 adults, 2.7% margin of error
1,321 likely voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(PPIC release)

California

2010 Governor
37% Brown (D), 34% Whitman (R), 5% Others (chart)

2010 Senate
39% Boxer (D), 34% Fiorina (R), 5% Others (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval (among adults)
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 25 / 62 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 56 / 38 (chart)


FL: 2010 Primaries (Quinnipiac 7/22-27)

Topics: Florida , poll

Quinnipiac
7/22-27/10; 760 likely Republican primary voters, 3.5% margin of error
782 likely Democratic primary voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
43% Scott, 32% McCollum

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
33% Greene, 23% Meek, 4% Ferre (chart)


NH: 45% Ayotte, 37% Hodes (UNH 7/19-27)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll , senate

University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll / WMUR-TV
7/19-27/10; 504 adults, 4.4% margin of error
453 likely voter, 4.6% Margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(UNH release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate
45% Ayotte (R), 37% Hodes (D) (chart)
42% Hodes (D), 36% Lamontagne (R) (chart)
39% Hodes (D), 36% Bender (R) (trend)
41% Binnie (R), 38% Hodes (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Paul Hodes: 32 / 31
Kelly Ayotte: 36 / 27
Ovide Lamontagne: 16 / 14
Jim Bender: 17 / 11
Bill Binnie: 23 / 17
Jeanne Shaheen: 52 / 35 (chart)
Judd Gregg: 52 / 26 (chart)


OR: 51% Wyden, 35% Huffman (Rasmussen 7/26)

Topics: Oregon , poll

Rasmussen
7/26/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Oregon

2010 Senate
51% Wyden (D), 35% Huffman (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jim Huffman: 31 / 31
Ron Wyden: 57 / 36


Hairstyles 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Jamelle Bouie suspects the midterms will reflect a reversion to the mean rather than a landslide.

Frank Newport reviews attitudes on the institutions and issues involved in the Wikileaks War Logs story.

Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen call Barack Obama a “Divisive President;”Jonathan Chait takes them to task; Joe Klein does too.

Mark Mellman considers the different dynamics of House and Senate seat loss for the President’s party.

David Hill says Obama flubbed on job creation.

Dante Scalia digs deep into the PPP favorable rating shifts in New Hampshire

Andrew Therriault finds Americans ready for a reasonable conversation about taxes (via Tucker)

NH Republicans ask Attorney General to investigate alleged “push polling” (via Political Wire).

Nate Silver thinks polling on marijuana may reflect social desirability rather than true opinions.

Jason Linkins questions the PPP Boxer-Fiorina hairstyle question.


AL: 55% Bentley, 35% Sparks (Rasmussen 7/22)

Topics: Alabama , poll

Rasmussen
7/22/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Alabama

2010 Governor
55% Bentley (R), 35% Sparks (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Robert Bentley: 68 / 19
Ron Sparks: 43 / 39

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 60
Gov. Riley: 57 / 42


NV: 45% Reid, 43% Angle (Rasmussen 7/27)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Rasmussen
7/27/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
45% Reid (D), 43% Angle (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 44 / 55 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 42 / 56

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 55 (chart)
Gov. Gibbons: 37 / 62 (chart)


NH: 2010 Senate Primary (PPP 7/23-25)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-25/10; 415 likely Republican primary voters, 4.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
47% Ayotte, 14% Binnie, 8% Lamontagne, 6% Bender, 3% Beloin, 1% Alciere, 1% Lamare

2012 President: Republican Primary
31% Romney, 14% Gingrich, 13% Paul, 12% Huckabee, 9% Palin, 3% Pawlenty, 1% Daniels


IL: 43% Giannoulias, 41% Kirk (Rasmussen 7/26)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Rasmussen
7/26/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Senate
43% Giannoulias (D), 41% Kirk (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Kirk: 46 / 41
Alexi Giannoulias: 37 / 48

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 43


CA: 46% Brown, 40% Whitman (PPP 7/23-25)

Topics: California , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-25/10; 614 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

California

2010 Governor
46% Brown (D), 40% Whitman (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jerry Brown: 41 / 43
Meg Whitman: 30 / 50

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 19 / 71 (chart)


NY: 2010 Senate, Governor (Quinnipiac 7/20-26)

Topics: New York , poll

Quinnipiac
7/20-26/10; 1,165 registered voters, 2.9% margin of error
380 Republicans, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

New York

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
39% Lazio, 23% Paladino

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
19% Blakeman, 12% Malpass

2010 Governor: General Election
56% Cuomo (D), 26% Lazio (R) (chart)
55% Cuomo (D), 25% Paladino (R)

2010 Senate: General Election
48% Gillibrand (D), 27% Blakeman (R) (chart)
49% Gillibrand (D), 24% Malpass (R)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Paterson: 31 / 57 (chart)
Sen. Gillibrand: 48 / 26 (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 55 / 33 (chart)


KY: 48% Conway, 46% Paul (Benenson 6/26-29)

Topics: kentucky , Poll , senate

Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Jack Conway
6/26-29/10; 800 likely voters, 3.46% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Benenson release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
48% Conway (D), 46% Paul (R) (chart)


OR: 47% Dudley, 44% Kitzhaber (Rasmussen 7/26)

Topics: Oregon , poll

Rasmussen
7/26/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Oregon

2010 Governor
47% Dudley (R), 44% Kitzhaber (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Dudley: 53 / 29
John Kitzhaber: 47 / 44

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 52
Gov. Kulongoski: 43 / 53


NC: 44% Burr, 37% Marshall (Civitas 7/19-21)

Topics: North Carolina , poll


Civitas Institute / Tel Opinion Research
7/19-21/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Civitas release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
44% Burr, 37% Marshall (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Burr: 34 / 29 (chart)
Elaine Marshall: 24 / 14


CA: 49% Boxer, 40% Fiorina (PPP 7/23-25)

Topics: California , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-25/10; 614 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

California

2010 Senate
49% Boxer (D), 40% Fiorina (R) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 39 (chart)
Sen. Feinstein: 44 / 43 (chart)
Sen. Boxer: 44 / 46 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Carly Fiorina: 28 / 40


CO: 2010 Senate (Rasmussen 7/26)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Rasmussen
7/26/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Colorado

2010 Senate
44% Norton (R), 40% Romanoff (D) (chart)
48% Norton (R), 39% Bennet (D) (chart)
48% Buck (R), 42% Romanoff (D) (chart)
48% Buck (R), 42% Bennet (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ken Buck: 49 / 43
Michael Bennet: 41 / 53 (chart)
Andrew Romanoff: 47 / 44
Jane Norton: 45 / 48

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 42 / 57 (chart)
Gov. Ritter: 43 / 55 (chart)


US: National Survey (Ipsos/Reuters 7/22-25)

Topics: National , poll

Ipsos / Reuters
7/22-25/10; 1,075 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Ipsos release)

National

State of the Country
34% Right Direction, 60% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
48% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 76 / 21 (chart)
Inds: 52 / 41 (chart)
Reps: 14 / 84 (chart)

2010 Congress
All adults: 47% Democrat, 42% Republican
Registered voters (N=848): 46% Republican, 44% Democrat (chart)

Party ID
Initial: 28% Democrat, 22% Republican, 50% independent (chart)
With leaners: 46% Democrat, 39% Republican, 15% independent


NH: 45% Ayotte, 42% Hodes (PPP 7/23-25)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-25/10; 900 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate
45% Ayotte (R), 42% Hodes (D) (chart)
46% Binnie (R), 41% Hodes (D) (chart)
43% Hodes (R), 42% Bender (D) (trend)
43% Hodes (R), 38% Lamontagne (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Paul Hodes: 35 / 40
Kelly Ayotte: 36 / 39
Bill Binnie: 27 / 33
Jim Bender: 15 / 28
Ovide Lamontagne: 16 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 47 (chart)
Sen. Gregg: 44 / 39 (chart)
Sen. Shaheen: 45 / 44 (chart)


MD: 45% O'Malley, 42% Ehrlich (Gonzales 7/13-21)

Topics: Maryland , poll

Gonzales Research & Marketin Strategies
7/13-21/10; 807 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gonzales release)

Maryland

2010 Governor
45% O'Malley, 42% Ehrlich

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 51 / 38
Gov. O'Malley: 48 / 39
Sen. Mikulski: 59 / 29

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bob Ehrlich: 46 / 23


US: National Survey (Pew/National Journal 7/22-25)

Topics: National , poll

Pew / National Journal
7/22-25/10; 1,004 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release, National Journal article)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Republican leaders in Congress: 33 / 53
Democratic leaders in Congress: 35 / 56

What do you think would do more to improve economic conditions in the country over the next few years?
46% Following the economic policies of Barack Obama's administration
29% Following the economic policies of George W. Bush's administration

Which comes closer to your view about the tax cuts passed when George W. Bush was president?
30% All of the tax cuts should remain in place
27% Tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, while others stay in place
31% All of the tax cuts should be repealed

Party ID
31% Democrat, 29% Republican, 33% independent (chart)


AL: 59% Shelby, 29% Barnes (Rasmussen 7/22)

Topics: Alabama , poll

Rasmussen
7/22/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Alabama

2010 Senate
59% Shelby (R), 29% Barnes (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Shelby: 67 / 28
William Barnes: 32 / 31

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 60
Gov. Riley: 57 / 42


MA: 38% Patrick, 32% Baker, 17% Cahill (Rasmussen 7/22)

Topics: Massachusetts , poll

Rasmussen
7/22/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release0

Massachusetts

2010 Governor
38% Patrick (D), 32% Baker (R), 17% Cahill (i) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Deval Patrick: 51 / 48
Tim Cahill: 44 / 38
Charlie Baker: 36 / 46
Scott Brown: 54 / 40

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 45
Gov. Patrick: 50 / 49


US: Generic Ballot (Gallup 7/19-25)

Topics: National , poll

Gallup
7/19-25/10; 1,633 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)


Message Testing 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Lydia Saad extols the virtues of polling for those on both sides of the aisle.

Jay Cost argues that state party identification reflects the "stickiness" of historical identification rather than current voting patterns.

Stephanie Condon wonders if Liberals can match Republican enthusiasm in November.

Democracy Corps reports the results of their Netroots Nation straw poll.

Patrick Murray takes to task campaign pollsters and reporters who report their results.


US: Generic Ballot (Rasmussen 7/19-25)

Topics: National , poll

Rasmussen
7/19-25/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 36% Democrat (chart)


ND: 69% Hoeven, 22% Potter (Rasmussen 7/21)

Topics: North Dakota , poll

Rasmussen
7/21/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: Senate, House)

North Dakota

2010 Senate
69% Hoeven (R), 22% Potter (D) (chart)

2010 House
49% Berg (R), 46% Pomeroy (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Tracy Potter: 41 / 35
John Hoeven: 82 / 15
Earl Pomeroy: 51 / 47
Rick Berg: 55 / 27

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 40 / 59
Gov. Hoeven: 87 / 11


Why Hillary Clinton should be Sarah Palin's role model

Topics: Favorable Ratings , Hillary Clinton , Sarah Palin

Is Sarah Palin too polarizing to be elected president? This has become a central question in political commentary on the former Alaska governor and GOP vice presidential nominee. What people often fail to recognize, however, is that the debate over Palin's electability mirrors the debate over Hillary Clinton's electability during the 2006-2008 period.

Clinton may have a very different personal background from Palin, but both women share a common characteristic -- they have sharply polarizing public profiles. However, as this plot of Gallup data illustrates, they managed their image very differently during the pre-campaign period:

Hillarypalin

Between 2001 and 2006, Clinton largely kept her head down and worked hard as a senator, building relationships with her Republican colleagues and avoiding high-profile controversies. As a result, much of the anti-Hillary sentiment that had built up during the 1990s remained latent, allowing her to cultivate elite support for a campaign that came extremely close to securing the Democratic nomination.

By contrast, Palin's repeated engagement in high-profile media controversies has reduced her public support from the low levels she had reached by the end of the 2008 campaign (when she may have hurt John McCain significantly). Even before she comes under fire from other Republicans (as she eventually will if she runs), more of the public has an unfavorable impression of her than has a favorable one.

All is not lost for Palin, however. Though Clinton started 2007 as a less polarizing figure than Palin, the public quickly reverted to being sharply divided about her as she began to campaign actively for the Democratic nomination. Assuming Palin's remaining supporters will stick by her, she may end up with a similar profile in April 2011 as Hillary had in April 2007. In that case, a successful nomination campaign is plausible (and even a general election victory if the economy is in bad enough shape). However, her failure to improve her image during this pre-primary period may cost her the elite support she would need to win the GOP nomination.

Update 7/27 12:34 PM: It's of course possible that Palin isn't going to run for preisdent, which would certainly help explain her decision to do things like filming a reality TV episode with Kate Gosselin rather than developing her policy resume.

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


AZ: 54% McCain, 34% Hayworth (Rasmussen 7/21)

Topics: Arizona , poll

Rasmussen
7/21/10; 595 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Arizona

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
54% McCain, 34% Hayworth


OK: 2010 Gov (SoonerPoll.com 7/16-21)

Topics: governor , Oklahoma , poll , Primary

SoonerPoll.com for the Tulsa World
7/16-21/10; 755 likely voters, 3.57% margin of error
340 likely Republican primary voters, 5.31% margin of error
384 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Tulsa World article)

Oklahoma

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
56% Fallin, 18% Brogdon, 3% Hubbard, 1% Jackson

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
49% Edmondson, 33% Askins

2010 Governor: General Election
47% Fallin (R), 39% Edmondson (D)
46% Fallin (R), 40% Askins (D)


TN: 2010 Gov (Mason-Dixon 7/19-21)

Topics: Governor , Poll , Primary , Tennessee

Mason-Dixon for the Tennessee Newspaper Network
7/19-21/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(The Commercial Appeal article)

Tennessee

2010 Governor: General Election
49% Haslam (R), 31% McWherter (D)
45% Wamp (R), 38% McWherter (D)
43% Ramsey (R), 38% McWherter (D)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
36% Haslam, 25% Wamp, 20% Ramsey, 1% Marceaux

Favorable / Unfavorable / Neutral
Phil Bredesen: 63 / 7 / 28
Zach Wamp: 33 / 18 / 37
Bill Haslam: 32 / 13 / 40
Mike McWherter: 27 / 16 / 36
Ron Ramsey: 24 / 16 / 35


OK: 2010 Gov Primaries (Cole Hargrave Snodgrass 7/18-20)

Topics: governor , Oklahoma , poll , Primary

Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R)
7/18-20/10; 500 likely Republican primary voters, 4.3% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates release)

Oklahoma

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
50% Fallin, 22% Brogdon, 1% Jackson, 1% Hubbard

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
38% Edmondson, 27% Askins


 

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