Pollster.com

August 8, 2010 - August 14, 2010

 

NV: 52% Sandoval, 36% Reid (Mason-Dixon 8/9-11)

Topics: governor , Nevada , Poll

Mason-Dixon for Las Vegas Review Journal
8/9-11/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(LVRJ release)

Nevada

2010 Governor
52% Sandoval (R), 36% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable / Neutral
Brian Sandovakl: 48 / 18 / 30
Rory Reid: 29 / 41 / 27

Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage in Nevada
35% Support, 46% Oppose


Game Over? 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Sean Trende writes that Senate results will be close, but not a GOP takeover; Glen Bolger thinks GOP prospects are improving.

Andrew Gelman declares "game over."

Gerald Seib says we are seeing most voter volatility in 60 years.

Sarah Dutton asks what happened to Obama's standing among independents.

Steve Benen notices regional differences in generic ballot results.

Tom Jensen takes a closer look at the enthusiasm gap.

Ezra Klein is confused about favorability ratings.

Nate Silver notes that methodology may affect results on gay marriage questions.

Jed Lewison takes a closer look at CNN's Ground Zero mosque question.

Ben Smith shares a Benenson memo saying 2010 resembles 2002 more than 2006.

Mike Huckabee points to the polls in claiming he put a Georgia candidate over the top (via Goddard).


GA: 51% Deal, 42% Barnes (Rasmussen 8/11)

Topics: Georgia , poll

Rasmussen
8/11/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Georgia

2010 Governor
51% Deal (R), 42% Barnes (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Nathan Deal: 52 / 38
Roy Barnes: 48 / 47

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 36 / 53
Gov. Perdue: 49 / 49


MN: 45% Dayton, 36% Emmer, 10% Horner (Rasmussen 8/12)

Topics: Minnesota , poll

Rasmussen
8/12/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Minnesota

2010 Governor
45% Dayton (D), 36% Emmer (R), 10% Horner (I)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Tom Emmer: 40 / 50
Mark Dayton: 53 / 43
Tom Horner: 35 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Pawlenty: 48 / 50 (chart)


CT: 47% Blumenthal, 40% McMahon (Rasmussen 8/11)

Topics: Connecticut , poll

Rasmussen
8/11/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate
47% Blumenthal (D), 40% McMahon (R) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 46 (chart)
Gov. Rell: 65 / 35 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Blumenthal: 59 / 39
Linda McMahon: 52 / 45


Abramowitz and Ornstein bust midterm election myths

Topics: Barack Obama , midterm

Political scientists Alan Abramowitz of Emory University and Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute have a must-read op-ed in Sunday's Washington Post busting five myths about midterm elections:

1. Midterm votes foretell future election results.
2. It's an anti-incumbent year.
3. The president's message is crucial.
4. It's all about the economy.
5. Midterms provide mandates.

File this one away for November when pundits claim that the election results prove Obama had the wrong message and is going to lose in 2012.

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


US: 2012 Primary (CNN 8/6-10)

Topics: National , poll

CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
8/6-10/10; 494 likely Republican primary voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

2012 President: Republican Primary
21% Romney, 18% Palin, 15% Gingrich, 14% Huckabee, 10% Paul, 3% Barbour, 3% Pawlenty, 3% Pence, 2% Santorum


US: Generic Ballot (PPP 8/6-9)

Topics: Florida , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/6-9/10; 606 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

2010 Congress
45% Republican, 42% Democrat (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Dems in Congress: 34 / 58
Reps in Congress: 24 / 61

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?
33% Legal, 57% Illegal


Judis vs. Judis on presidents and the economy

Topics: Barack Obama , Economic Issues , presidential approval , Ronald Reagan

Back in January, I predicted the birth of a thousand "Why Obama is failing" narratives:

It's time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama White House. During the next eleven months, it will become increasingly obvious that Democrats face an unfavorable political environment and that President Obama's approval ratings are trending downward. Inside the Beltway, these outcomes will be interpreted as evidence that the Obama administration has made poor strategic choices or that the President isn't "connecting" with the American public. Hundreds of hours will be spent constructing elaborate narratives about how the character, personality, and tactics of the principals in the White House inevitably led them to their current predicament.

What few will point out, however, is that the Obama administration (like every White House) is largely a prisoner of circumstance -- the combination of lingering economic weakness and an upcoming midterm election would hurt any president. David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel certainly didn't become any less skillful in the last few months; Obama is just playing a weaker hand than he was during the campaign and subsequent honeymoon period. As such, it's hard to know how much of the decline in the standing of Obama and the Democrats is the result of the choices the White House has made.

The latest offender is John Judis in a New Republic cover story not yet available online (see the cover here). Judis is a smart and sophisticated pundit, so I'm surprised to see him moving away from his previously clear-eyed stance on the primary source of Obama's troubles. Back in September 2009, he correctly noted that tactics were unlikely to change what he called "the lockstep relationship between Obama's popularity and the state of the economy":

Are these signs of voter discontent the result of tactical errors by Obama? Would the numbers look different if he had given his impassioned defense of national health care in February, or if he and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had been tougher on the banks earlier this year? Perhaps these tactics would have led to a temporary bounce in Obama's popularity, but they would not have changed its overall trajectory. That's because Obama's fortunes are being driven mainly by one thing: not health care, but the economy.

To understand the lockstep relationship between Obama's popularity and the state of the economy, it helps to look at two previous presidents who, like Obama, confronted a failing economy: Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan...

Similar factors [like 9/11] could certainly make the state of the economy less important in shaping Obama's popularity--dramatic success or failure in Afghanistan, for instance, or a new terrorist attack--but, for now, these factors are not in play. And that means Obama's fortunes, like those of so many of his predecessors, are tethered to the economy.

In March 2010, Judis published a story modifying his previous stance in which he claimed that Ronald Reagan was able to offset the negative effects of the economy on his political standing:

[A] president's political acumen--his ability to put the best light on his and his party's accomplishments--can mitigate the effects of rising unemployment. That's what Ronald Reagan and the Republicans achieved in the 1982 midterm elections...

Using economic models, some political scientists predicted that Democrats would pick up as many as 50 House seats. The Democrats also hoped to win back the Senate, which they had lost in 1980. But when the votes were tallied, the Republicans lost 26 House seats and kept their 54 seats in the Senate. How did Reagan and the Republicans manage to contain their losses in this midterm election? That's a question not simply of historical interest, but of direct relevance to Obama and the Democrats who are likely to face a similar, although perhaps not as severe, economic situation in November 2010.

Reagan blamed the Democrats for leaving him with "the worst economic mess in half a century"... By cutting spending and taxes, Reagan claimed that he was showing the way toward a recovery...

Reagan stated this theme not once, but hundreds of times and in virtually the same words, and it was featured in national Republican ads....

As I noted at the time, however, modern models of Congressional elections do not show the 1982 election as an outlier; there's no statistical indication that Reagan overperformed relative to what we would expect. In addition, the polls are not consistent with the claim -- Emory's Alan Abramowitz pointed out that Reagan's approval numbers declined during 1982 and the Democrats held a large and steady lead in the generic ballot.

In his new piece, Judis briefly acknowledges the role of the economy, but argues that "the most important reason" for Obama's struggles "has been an inability to develop a politics that resonates with the public" -- namely, a populist message:

[T]here is a disturbing political resemblance between the two presidencies [Carter and Obama]. Both men ran inspired campaigns in which they positioned themselves above the scandals and partisan quarrels of their predecessors and initially stirred hopes of a "transformational" presidency. But, as presidents, both men somehow failed to connect with large parts of the electorate.

To be sure, there are a number of very specific reasons why Carter and Obama landed in political trouble. Both men contended with rising unemployment--Carter with rampant inflation as well--and voters' approval of a president and his party tend to track closely with changes in the economy. Carter faced friction in his own party and the rise of a powerful business lobby, and Obama has dealt with a Republican Party that has frustrated his dreams of a post-partisan presidency. Yet the most important reason for their difficulties--evident in their inept attempts to brand their programs--has been an inability to develop a politics that resonates with the public.

There's nothing especially mysterious about why Obama has "somehow failed to connect with large parts of the electorate" (the exact phrasing I predicted in January). Presidents tend to be more successful at "connecting" and "resonating" with the public when the economy is doing well. When things are going badly, political messages tend to fall flat. What president has ever "connected" or "resonated" in a terrible economy like this?

Amazingly, Judis even contradicts his previous article on the president's approach to the financial crisis. In September 2009, he wrote that being tougher on the banks "might have led to a temporary bounce in Obama's popularity, but ... would not have changed its overall trajectory." This time, however, he claims "What doomed Obama politically was the way he dealt with the financial crisis":

Obama took office with widespread popular support, even among Republicans, and some of his first efforts, including the $800 billion stimulus, initially enjoyed strong public favor. But that wide appeal began to dissipate by the late spring of 2009. Disillusion with Obama fueled the November defeat of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. By January 2010, it was a crucial factor in Republican Scott Brown's astonishing victory over Martha Coakley in Massachusetts.

In the postmortem debate over these defeats, some Democrats have blamed Obama's dogged pursuit of health care reform while the economy was hemorrhaging jobs. That may have been a factor, but the real damage was done earlier. What doomed Obama politically was the way he dealt with the financial crisis in the first six months of his presidency. In an atmosphere primed for a populist backlash, he allowed the right wing to define the terms.

After another brief acknowledgment of the role of the economy ("if the economy were growing faster, and if unemployment were dropping below 9 percent, Obama and the Democrats would be more popular"), Judis subsequently returns to the Reagan comparison:

Contrast Obama's attempt to develop a politics to justify his economic program with what Reagan did in 1982. Faced with steadily rising unemployment, which went from 8.6 percent in January to 10.4 percent in November, Reagan and his political staff, which included James Baker, Mike Deaver, and Ed Rollins, forged a strategy early that year calling for voters to "stay the course" and blaming the current economic troubles on Democratic profligacy. "We are clearing away the economic wreckage that was dumped in our laps," Reagan declared. Democrats accused them of playing "the blame game," but the strategy, followed to the letter by the White House for ten months, worked. The Republicans were predicted to lose as many as 50 House seats, but they lost only 26 and broke even in the Senate.

Some commentators have noted Reagan's popularity was even lower than Obama's. But, on key economic questions, he did much better than Obama and the Democrats are currently performing--and voters expressed far greater patience with Reagan's program. According to polls, even as the unemployment rate climbed, a narrow plurality still expressed confidence that Reagan's program would help the economy. On the eve of the election, with the unemployment rate at a postwar high, a New York Times/CBS News poll found that 60 percent of likely voters thought Reagan's economic program would eventually help the country. That's a sign of a successful political operation. If Obama could command those numbers, Democrats could seriously limit their losses in November. But Obama has not been able to develop a narrative that could convince people to trust him and the Democrats.

Judis seems to be overstating how well Reagan's poll numbers compare to Obama's on the economy. The current Pollster.com estimate of approval of Obama on the economy is 38.7%. The Roper iPoll database shows that poll ratings for Reagan's handling of the economy were similar and perhaps a bit lower in the comparable period: 35% (Gallup 6/11/82-6/14/82), 31% (Gallup 7/30/82-8/2/02), and 40% (ABC/WP 8/17/82). In fact, at almost exactly the same point in Reagan's presidency as we are in Obama's (August 17, 1982), a Washington Post poll found that only 32% of Americans thought Reagan's "overall economic program" was working. It's true, as Judis notes, that 60% of those polled by CBS and the New York Times in late October 1982 said Reagan's economic program "eventually will help" the economy (iPoll records the sample as registered rather than likely voters). However, a followup question showed that most were talking about two or more years later. Moreover, the same poll Judis cites found that 55% thought that Reagan's program had "hurt the country's economy so far."

It's possible that Judis is right that Obama's numbers would improve if he used more populist rhetoric, but tactics alone are extremely unlikely to change the dynamic Obama faces. He's mired in a terrible economy and is likely to suffer large midterm election losses. Different tactics might make a small difference on the margin, but as Judis previously put it, "Obama's fortunes, like those of so many of his predecessors, are tethered to the economy."

Update 8/25 9:17 AM: Mark Schmitt also critiqued Judis's use of poll numbers:

While making little effort to back up the Obama-as-Carter claim, Judis makes two serious attempts to rebut the Obama-as-Reagan argument, but in both cases, he cherry-picks polling data in misleading ways:

Some commentators have noted Reagan's popularity was even lower than Obama's. But, on key economic questions, he did much better than Obama and the Democrats are currently performing -- and voters expressed far greater patience with Reagan's program. ... On the eve of the election, with the unemployment rate at a postwar high, a New York Times/CBS News poll found that 60 percent of likely voters thought Reagan's economic program would eventually help the country. That's a sign of a successful political operation. If Obama could command those numbers, Democrats could seriously limit their losses in November.

Judis is correct that in an October 1982 survey, 60 percent answered "help" to the question, "Do you think the economic program eventually will help or hurt the country's economy?" But this result was a total outlier, even in the CBS/New York Times polls. One day later, in the same network's exit polls, when the question was phrased as, "In the long run, do you think Ronald Reagan's economic program will help the country's economy, or hurt the country's economy?" only 49 percent thought it would help. Reagan's approval rating on his handling of the economy was 35 percent in September 1982, with 57 percent disapproving. Obama's approval rating on the economy in June, in both the CBS and Pew polls, was 10 points higher, at 45 percent.

In other words, Obama commands exactly the same numbers or better on the economy. When voters in 1982 were asked whether "the economic program" would eventually help, it's possible that they were thinking of Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker's policy of defeating inflation with high interest rates, rather than Reagan's quite inconsistent fiscal program. (Shortly before the election, he signed legislation reversing some of the tax cuts of the first year, a bill which remains the biggest tax increase in U.S. history.)

Here's Judis' other stab at salvaging Reagan's sorry second and third year at Obama's expense:

In Pew's midyear report card on Obama's image, the greatest drop from February 2009 to this June was in the perception of Obama as a "strong leader." Voters will sometimes tolerate policies they question from presidents like John Kennedy or Reagan, whom they regard as "strong," but not from politicians like Jimmy Carter, whom they regard as weak.

True, Obama's biggest decline in the Pew poll was on "strong leader." But he began his term with the highest ratings on that attribute of any president since Reagan -- almost identical to Reagan's, in fact. And both subsequently lost ground.

From the Pew Polls, here's Obama's descent, on the "strong leader" question:

Jan 2009: 77%
Jan 2010: 62%
June 2010: 53%

And here's Reagan. The first data point is from a CBS/NYT poll; the rest are

Time/Yankelovich polls:
Jan 1981: 78%
Dec 1981: 71%
June 1982: 44%
Dec. 1982: 41%
March 1983: 38%
(Source: Roper Center iPoll database)

From identical stratospheric perceptions as leaders, Obama has lost 24 points, while Reagan lost 40 points, a drop of more than half. Obama is still regarded by a majority as a strong leader; Reagan at the same point definitely wasn't.

Judis says, of the economy, that "if Obama could command [Reagan's] numbers, Democrats could seriously limit their losses in November." But not only are Obama's numbers better than Reagan's, Reagan didn't "seriously limit" his own losses. The economy in 1982 flipped 27 House seats to the Democrats, enough to enable the party to marginalize the conservative Democrats who had supported Reagan's policies in 1981. (Democrats gained only one seat in the Senate, probably because only 11 Republicans were up for re-election that year.) The basic, boring insight of the political scientists is right here: Bad economies hurt presidents. The advice that if only Obama mimicked FDR, he too would win seats in the midterm seems like a very simplistic form of historical analogy, about a very different and unique moment.

Reagan recovered, of course, in time for the "Morning in America" election of 1984. And so we naturally forget those days when he seemed doomed to be the fifth consecutive president to leave office a failure, rather than the first since Eisenhower to complete two terms and leave more or less respected. (I was kind of shocked to learn of the magnitude of Reagan's slump myself, although I was alive and politically aware at the time.) He recovered not because of his message or his political operation, as Judis suggests, but because the economy recovered.

Update 8/25 9:23 AM: Judis has posted a response to his critics, but he makes no serious effort to address the criticisms that Schmitt and I raised. Here's the most relevant portion:

As I said in my piece, and charted in another piece last fall, presidential approval can be expected to fall in tandem with a rise in unemployment and a decline in personal income. But as Jay Cost of Real Clear Politics has argued, it's still question of how much presidential approval, and a party's political prospects, will fall. In August 1982, Yale political scientist Edward Tufte, who pioneered the economic theory of elections, predicted that the Republicans would lose 45 House seats. By November, the economy had continued to decline, but the Republicans lost only 26 seats and broke even in the Senate.

One reason the Republicans cut their losses was because Ronald Reagan and his White House advisors developed a populist narrative that they repeated from January to November urging voters to "stay the course." While Reagan remained somewhat unpopular, his relentless campaign convinced a majority of voters that his policies would eventually work. Obama has not developed a narrative; and as a result, voters have far less confidence in his economic policies than they did in Reagan's. That could make for a big Democratic defeat in November.

But as I noted above, modern forecasting models do not show the 1982 election as an outlier -- there's no evidence that Reagan overperformed. And as Schmitt and I have shown, the claim that "voters have far less confidence in [Obama's] economic policies than they did in Reagan's" is based on a highly selective interpretation of a handful of polls. In reality, Obama and Reagan's poll numbers are roughly parallel.

Update 8/26 9:23 AM: Schmitt responds to Judis here.

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


CO: 43% Hickenlooper, 31% Maes, 18% Tancredo (Rasmussen 8/11)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Rasmussen
8/11/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Colorado

2010 Governor
43% Hickenlooper (D), 31% Maes (R), 18% Tancredo (i)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Hickenlooper: 52 / 43
Dan Maes: 44 / 42
Tom Tancredo: 38 / 52

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Ritter: 44 / 54 (chart)


NV: 46% Reid, 44% Angle (LVRJ 8/9-11)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal
8/9-11/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(LVRJ release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
46% Reid (D), 44% Angle (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 40 / 51 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 37 / 45


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Topics: Pollster.com

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FL: 44% McCollum, 40% Scott (FMA 8/10-12)

Topics: Florida , poll

Tarrance Group (R) for Florida Medical Association
8/10-12/10; 900 likely Republican primary voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Tarrance release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
44% McCollum, 40% Scott (chart)


US: 2012 Pres (Clarus 7/26-27)

Topics: 2012 , National , poll , President

Clarus Research Group
7/26-27/10; 374 registered voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Clarus release)

National

2012 President: Republican Primary
26% Romney, 21% Huckabee, 14% Gingrich, 12% Palin, 3% Pawlenty, 3% Alexander, 2% Barbour, 1% Daniels, 1% Thune


FL: Meek 38%, Greene 30% (Feldman 8/9-11)

Topics: florida , poll , Primary elections , senate

Feldman Group (D) for Kendrick Meek
8/9-11/10; 800 likely Democratic primary voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kendrick Meek Memo)

Florida

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
38% Meek, 30% Greene (chart)


US: National Survey (Fox 8/10-11)

Topics: National , poll

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
8/10-11/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(fox News: Obama, 2010)

National

Obama Job Approval
43% Approve, 49% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 77 / 19 (chart)
Reps: 14 / 81 (chart)
Inds: 42 / 46 (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
44% Republican, 37% Democrat (chart)

When you think about Congress, do you think the average representative deserves to be re-elected, or would we be better off throwing most of them out and starting over with new people?
22% Deserves reelection, 62% Throw most of them out

How about your representative -- do you think he or she deserves to be reelected?
47% Deserves reelection, 37% Does not

Party ID
40% Republican, 38% Democrat, 17% independent (chart)


US: Generic Ballot (Zogby 8/9-11)

Topics: National , poll

Zogby
8/9-11/10; 2,067 likely voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Zogby release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
42% Republican, 41% Democrat (chart)

Obama Job Approval
43% Approve, 56% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 83 / 16 (chart)
Reps: 6 / 94 (chart)
Inds: 32 / 67 (chart)

State of the Country
34% Right Direction, 58% Wrong Track (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
22% Approve, 77% Disapprove (chart)


CA: 47% Fiorina, 42% Boxer (SurveyUSA 8/9-11)

Topics: California , poll

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno
8/9-11/10; 602 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

California

2010 Governor
44% Whitman (R), 43% Brown (D) (chart)

2010 Senate
47% Fiorina (R), 42% Boxer (D) (chart)


US: National Survey (CNN 8/6-10)

Topics: National , poll

CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
8/6-10/10; 1,009 adult, 3% margin of error
935 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 83 / 16 (chart)
Reps: 8 / 90 (chart)
Inds: 44 / 54 (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Registered voters: 48% Republican, 45% Democrat (chart)
Adults: 47% Democrat, 45% Republican

Please tell me whether you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be reelected or not:

The U.S. representative in your congressional district:
Adults: 52% Yes, deserves, 42% No, does not
Registered voters: 51% Yes, deserves, 44% No, does not

Most members of Congress:
Adults: 34% Yes, Deserves, 62% No, does not
Registered voters: 31% Yes, deserves, 65% No, does not

Most Democratic members of Congress:
Adults: 38% Yes, Deserves, 58% No, does not
Registered voters: 36% Yes, deserves, 60% No, does not

Most Republican members of Congress:
Adults: 40% Yes, Deserves, 55% No, does not
Registered voters: 40% Yes, deserves, 56% No, does not


CO: 46% Buck, 41% Bennet (Rasmussen 8/11)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Rasmussen
8/11/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Colorado

2010 Senate
46% Buck (R), 41% Bennet (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ken Buck: 52 / 37
Michael Bennet: 46 / 47 (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 52 (chart)
Gov. Ritter: 44 / 54 (chart)


IL: 48% Brady, 35% Quinn (Rasmussen 8/9)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Rasmussen
8/9/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Governor
48% Brady (R), 35% Quinn (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Pat Quinn: 39 / 54
Bill Brady: 46 / 39

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 46
Gov. Quinn: 36 / 60


US: 2012 Pres (PPP 8/6-9)

Topics: 2012 , National , poll , Presidential poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/6-9/10; 606 registered voters, 4.0% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

2012 President
47% Obama, 44% Huckabee
49% Obama, 43% Palin
49% Obama, 42% Gingrich
47% Obama, 31% Christie
45% Obama, 42% Romney
46% Obama, 21% Marceaux
42% Obama (D), 36% Romney (R), 13% Paul (i)

Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Huckabee: 32 / 34 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 37 / 54 (chart)
Newt Gingrich: 31 / 48
Ron Paul: 23 / 34
Mitt Romney: 35 / 37 (chart)
Chris Christie: 14 / 20
Basil Marceaux: 3 / 16


FL: McCollum 34%, Scott 30% (Mason-Dixon 8/9-11)

Topics: Florida , Governor , poll , Primary elections

Mason-Dixon for Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association
8/9-11/10; 400 likely Republican Primary voters, 5% margin of error
625 likely general election voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Tampa Bay Online article)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
34% McCollum, 30% Scott (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
37% Sink (D), 35% McCollum (R), 13% Chiles (i) (chart)
40% Sink (D), 24% Scott (R), 17% Chiles (i) (chart)


US: National Survey (Democracy Corps/CAF 7/26-29)

Topics: National , poll

Democracy Corps (D) for Campaign for America's future / MoveOn / AFSCME / SEIU
7/26-29/10; 1,000 2008 voters
866 likely 2010 voters
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(DemCorps release)

National

State of the Country
29% Right Direction, 64% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
45% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 50 / 48 (chart)
Democratic Party: 44 / 43
Republican Party: 46 / 46


MI: 51% Snyder, 32% Bernero (WDIV/Detroit News 8/10)

Topics: Michigan , poll

Glengariff Group for WDIV / Detroit News
600 likely voters; 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Glengariff release)

Michigan

2010 Governor
51% Snyder, 32% Bernero (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Snyder: 41 / 15
Virg Bernero: 21 / 27
Barack Obama: 50 / 44
Jennifer Granholm: 33 / 59

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 50 / 46


MO: 50% Blunt, 43% Carnahan (Rasmussen 8/10)

Topics: Missouri , poll

Rasmussen
8/10/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Missouri

2010 Senate
50% Blunt (R), 43% Carnahan (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 54 / 41
Robin Carnahan: 45 / 50

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 56 (chart)
Gov. Nixon: 56 / 39 (chart)


WI: 45% Neumann, 43% Barrett (Rasmussen 8/10)

Topics: poll , Wisconsin

Rasmussen
8/10/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Governor
45% Neumann (R), 43% Barrett (D) (chart)
49% Walker (R), 41% Barrett (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Neumann: 50 / 33
Scott Walker: 49 / 38
Tom Barrett: 46 / 44


Understating Meek's Vote?

Topics: 2010 , Catalist , Florida , Jeff Greene , Kendrick Meek , Quinnipiac University Poll

Back in April, I asked rhetorically why Florida Senate candidate Kendrick Meek had earned so little respect from analysts and pundits. I was thinking mostly of the one-on-one general election contest then looming between Democrat Meek and likely Republican nominee Marco Rubio.

That was then. Within a few weeks, Republican Governor Charlie Crist launched his independent Senate candidacy and shortly after that, billionaire real estate investor Jeff Greene jumped into the Democratic primary. Since then, Greene has pumped at least $8 million of his own funds into television advertising and has rapidly gained support in public polls. By late June, the Cook Political Report (gated) was reporting that unnamed "Democratic strategists are beginning to come to terms with the idea that Greene may well win the primary."

2010-08-11-Blumenthal-FLDemPrimary.png

The three most recent public polls now show everything from a ten-point Greene lead (Quinnipiac University) to a narrow but not quite statistically significant four-point Meek advantage (Mason-Dixon). A third poll, conducted last week for the Meek campaign, shows Meek (at 36%) in a "statistical dead heat" against Greene (35%). "That Meek's campaign is releasing a poll showing him essentially running even with Greene," the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza concluded last week, is a testament to the dire straits that the Democratic congressman has found himself in."

While a general election contest is another story -- both Meek and Greene currently run far behind both Crist and Rubio -- I can't help feeling that those unnamed "strategists" are still underestimating Meek's base and potential in the August 24 primary.

To get a better sense of Meek's true base of support, I start by asking two questions: (1) What percentage of the primary electorate will be African-American and (2) what percentage will be white college-educated and liberal?

The African American percentage is the easier to estimate since the Voting Rights Act requires that Florida and other southern states maintain and report registration and turnout statistics by race. I obtained the following estimates from Catalist, the Democratic Party affiliated database of vendors. Based on the voters currently registered to vote (i.e. excluding any that have been purged over the last ten years because they have died or moved), they tell me that African Americans are:

  • 27% of the 5.4 million registered Democrats in Florida
  • 25% of the 828,401 who voted in the Democratic primary in August 2008
  • 21% of the 837,192 who voted in the Democratic primary in August 2006
  • 24% of the 1.98 million who voted in any Florida Democratic primary since 2000 held in August or September
  • 20% of the 1.7 million who voted in the Democratic presidential preference primary in January 2008

And in case you are wondering, yes there was a significant boost in African-American registration just prior to the 2008 general election. Catalist also reports that African-Americans were 41% of the 329,121 voters that registered after the 2008 presidential primary and cast a ballot in November 2008.

With those numbers in mind, let's consider the African American composition of the recent public polls.

2010-08-10-FLracialcomposition.png

Mason-Dixon (21%) matches the black turnout from 2006, while PPP (19%) is slightly lower and Quinnipiac (16%) much so. All three fall short of the African American percentage (25%) that Catalist reports for the August 2008 primary (25% -- and remember, Florida's controversial, non-binding presidential preference primary was held earlier, in January 2008). Of course, the composition in this year's primary is unknown, and what sort of turnout Kendrick Meek's candidacy will help produce among Florida's African American Democrats remains an open question.

But even more important than composition is Meek's vote share. All three polls show Meek under 50% among black voters, which probably speaks to his still less-than-universal name recognition even as recently as two to three weeks ago.

Here's a wager: On August 24, Meek will get at least 80% and probably closer to 90% of Florida's African-American vote. If I'm right, it means that all three polls are likely understating Meek's overall vote percentage by at least 8 to 10 percentage points.

The same thing happened over and over during the 2008 primaries, as pre-election polls significantly underestimated Barack Obama's eventual margins in states with large African-American populations like South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia.

Now let's consider my second question: What percentage of the likely electorate is white, liberal and college educated? I ask because college-educated liberals were a bedrock of Barack Obama's support in the 2008 primaries and typically the most supportive subgroup of African-American candidates in Democratic primaries. Unfortunately, only polls can tell us the size of this subgroup and of the independent surveys, only the Quinnipiac University poll asked respondents to report both their years of education and ideology.

The pollsters at Quinnipiac University tell me that white, college-educated liberals were just 14% of their late July sample, but as the table below shows, their support for Kendrick Meek (42%) was comparable to African-Americans (39%) and more than twice that of all other voters (16%).

2010-08-10-Blumenthal-RaceIdeologyEduc1.png

Here's my hunch: Meek will do slightly better among both groups of non-black voters than indicated in the Quinnipiac poll. That's not exactly a bold prediction given that Quinnipiac found significantly less support for Meek overall than all of the other public polls fielded since June, including the two more recent polls by Mason-Dixon and the Meek campaign.

If Meek wins 85% of the African-American vote, and if that vote is 21% of the turnout, then Meek needs roughly 55% of white, college-educated liberals and 35% of everyone else to get to 48% of the vote overall (which should be enough to win, if Maurice Ferre and other minor candidates take 5% of the vote). If you assume that undecided voters in the non-black subgroups will either not vote or "break" along the same lines as those in the Quinnipiac poll who have already decided, Meek is pretty close to those targets already.

Yes, that is a hunch contingent on a number of "ifs." But if Meek wins the primary handily, remember where you heard it first.

[Crossposted to the Huffington Post] - The original version of this post incorrectly referenced the primary as occurring next week.


US: National Survey (NBC/WSJ 8/5-9)

Topics: National , poll

NBC News / Wall Street Journal
8/5-9/10; 1,000 adults, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(NBC: story, results; WSJ: story, results)

National

State of the Country
32% Right Direction, 58% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 44 / 52 (chart)
Oil Spill Aftermath: 50 / 38
Afghanistan: 44 / 45
Iraq: 49 / 40

Congressional Job Approval
21% Approve, 72% Disapprove (chart)

Positive / Negative
Barack Obama: 46 / 41 (chart)
Democratic Party: 33 / 44
Republican Party: 24 / 46

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections -- a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
43% Democrat-controlled, 42% Rpeublican-controlled

Party ID
30% Democrat, 21% Republican, 42% independent (chart)


iPhone Action 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Josh Kraushaar says Republicans could take the Senate this fall.

Chris Bowers thinks Obama should be careful of offending the left; Brendan Nyahn counters.

Pew analyzes the role of religion in the 2008 election (via Lundry).

Dave Weigel faults the math of the POS/Crossroads poll; Steve Benen says it was all a Karl Rove press stunt.

FlowingData notices that iPhone users get all the action.


WI: 47% Johnson, 46% Feingold (Rasmussen 8/10)

Topics: poll , senate , wisconsin

Rasmussen
8/10/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wisconsin

2010 Senate
47% Johnson (R), 46% Feingold (D) (chart)
48% Feingold (D), 39% Westlake (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Russ Feingold: 50 / 47 (chart)
Jake Westlake: 35 / 31
Ron Johnson: 51 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 50 (chart)
Gov. Doyle: 38 / 60 (chart)


US: Citizenship, Ground Zero Mosque (CNN 8/6-10)

Topics: National , poll

CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
8/6-10/10; 1,009 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

As you may know, the Constitution says that all children born in the United States are automatically U.S. citizens regardless of their parents' status. Would you favor or oppose a Constitutional amendment to prevent children born here from becoming U.S. citizens unless their parents are also U.S. citizens?
49% Favor, 51% Oppose

Do you favor or oppose a bill in which the federal government would provide 26 billion dollars to state governments to pay for Medicaid benefits and the salaries of public school teachers or other government workers?
60% Favor, 28% Oppose

Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?
49% Yes, 51% No

Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?
52% Yes, 46% No

As you may know, a group of Muslims in the U.S. plan to build a mosque two blocks from the site in New York City where the World Trade Center used to stand. Do you favor or oppose this plan?
29% Favor, 68% Oppose


CO: 48% Hickenlooper, 23% Maes, 22% Tancredo (PPP 8/7-8)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/7-8/10; 1,015 likely voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Colorado

2010 Governor
48% Hickenlooper (D), 23% Maes (R), 22% Tancredo (I)
50% Hickenlooper (D), 38% Maes (R)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Ritter: 33 / 50 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Hickenlooper: 50 / 33
Dan Maes: 23 / 38
Tom Tancredo: 27 / 50


High Quality Local Poll Reporting



Your intrepid reporter is doing field research in south-western Washington state and stumbled across a nice example of local reporters and newspapers doing serious reporting on polling.

The setting is Washington's Third congressional district, covering most of south-western Washington from Olympia in the north to Vancouver across the river from Portland OR. An open seat rated tossup by both The Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report, Dems have held the seat easily since 1998 but with the retirement of incumbent Democrat Brian Baird the seat is clearly up for grabs. Cook's Partisan Voting Index for the district is a flat zero. Obama won the district 53-45 while Bush edged Kerry 50-48. 

Two Dems and three Reps are on the August 17th primary ballot. On the GOP side, two-term State Representative Jaime Herrera faces ex-Marine David Hedrick who cites his Tea Party origins, and ex-Bush administration official David Castillo, who claims backing from Dick Armey's FreedomWorks. Neither Hedrick nor Castillo have prior electoral experience. (The Democratic candidates are not the focus of the polling article, but include five time state Representative Denny Heck and citizen activist Cheryl Crist. Independent Norma Jean Stevens also appears on the primary ballot.) Under Washington election law, all candidates appear on a single ballot with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general, regardless of party.

In an August 10 front-page story above the fold of The Columbian, reporter Kathie Durbin, reports on new poll results cited by the Hedrick campaign which show him neck-and-neck with Herrera (and both trailing Democrat Heck.) But then the story gets to the punch line:

But the source of Hedrick's information, The Washington State Political Polls, was unknown in the state until last month and has zero credibility with polling professionals.

The story goes on to trace the vague origins of the "poll", with clear and useful quotes from Seattle pollster Stuart Elway of the Elway Poll and University of Washington political science professor Matt Barreto. In the course of the lengthy 27 paragraph article, reporter Durbin manages to cover the role of random sampling and how internet polls of dubious origins fall far short of those standards. She also includes comments from the Hedrick campaign defending its use of the "poll". My favorite:  "...it's "not my job" to vet the poll."

While the WA-03 race is an important tossup, it is not at the center of national reporting. But this article is a model of local reporting on polling, vetting claims by candidates and checking polling methods with qualified professionals. And putting the story in a prominent place in the paper.

As we enter the frenzy of the fall campaign with a bevy of new pollsters appearing, using IVR and internet methods of data collection (some well, some not so well), it is especially important that reporters check the polling methods and report to readers what is at stake between scientific polling and junk. It was a pleasure to find this job done so well.


US: National Survey (PPP 8/6-9)

Topics: National , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/6-9/10; 606 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 47 / 48 (chart)
Dems: 82 / 14 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 86 (chart)
Inds: 44 / 49 (chart)

Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
46% Support, 48% Oppose (chart)

Do you think George W. Bush or Barack Obama is more responsible for the current state of the economy?
49% Bush, 40% Obama

Would you rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush as President right now?
50% Obama, 43% Bush

Out of the last 5 Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, who do you think Barack Obama is most similar to?
41% Clinton, 35% Carter, 6% Reagan, 2% H.W. Bush, 2% W. Bush


TN: 56% Haslam, 31% McWherter (Rasmussen 8/9)

Topics: poll , Tennessee

Rasmussen
8/9/20; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Tennessee

2010 Governor
56% Haslam (R), 31% McWherter (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bill Haslam: 78 / 18
Mike McWherter: 53 / 35

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 37 / 62
Gov. Bredesen: 73 / 26


IL: 40% Kirk, 40% Giannoulias (Rasmussen 8/9)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Rasmussen
8/9/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Illinois

2010 Senate
40% Kirk (R), 40% Giannoulias (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mark Kirk: 42 / 43
Alexi Giannoulias: 39 / 47

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 46
Gov. Quinn: 36 / 60


FL: 38% Rubio, 33% Crist, 21% Meek (Rasmussen 8/9)

Topics: Florida , poll

Rasmussen
8/9/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Florida

2010 Senate
38% Rubio (R), 33% Crist (i), 21% Meek (D) (chart)
37% Crist (i), 36% Rubio (R), 20% Greene (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Charlie Crist: 58 / 39 (chart)
Kendrick Meek: 31 / 46
Marco Rubio: 46 / 41
Jeff Greene: 29 / 48

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 44 / 54 (chart)
Gov. Crist: 58 / 40 (chart)


WA: 2010 Primary (SurveyUSA 8/6-9)

Topics: poll , Washington

SurveyUSA / KING-TV
8/6-9/10; 675 likely & actual voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Washington

2010 Senate Primary (top 2 advance)
41% Murray (D), 33% Rossi (R) 11% Didier (R), 5% Akers (R), 5% Others


OH: 43% POrtman, 36% Fisher(Ipsos/Reuters 8/6-8)

Topics: Ohio , poll

Ipsos/Reuters
8/6-8/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
530 likely voters, 4.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Reuters story)

Ohio

2010 Senate
43% Portman (R), 36% Fisher (R) (chart)

2010 Governor
48% Kasich (R), 39% Strickland (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Ted Strickland: 43 / 51 (chart)


Dog Days 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Tom Jensen thinks playing the "Bush card" might be an effective strategy for Democrats this fall.

Gary Andres discusses the confusing nature of tax polling.

Public Opinion Strategies finds Democrats struggling in battleground Senate races; Jim Geraghty, Cristunity

Carl Bialik highlights the growth of online polling; Robert Bain becomes an undercover online survey respondent.

Bob Groves announces that the census is expected to cost less than expected; The New York Times, AP, and NPR report.

Kathie Durbin reports on fishy polling in Washington State (via Geraghty).


US: National Survey (Pew 7/21-8/5)

Topics: National , poll

Pew Research Center
7/21-8/5/10; 3,003 adults, 2.5% margin of error
2,431 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)
Reps: 14 / 78 (chart)
Dems: 79 / 13 (chart)
Inds: 42 / 43 (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot (registered voters)
45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

What will make the biggest difference in how you vote for Congress in your district - national issues, local or state issues, the candidate's political party, or the candidate's character and experience?
36% National issues
29% Local/state issues
5% Political party
22% Character/experience

Party ID
33% Democrat, 26% Republican, 34% independent (chart)


NH: 50% Lynch, 39% Stephen (Rasmussen 8/5)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Rasmussen
8/5/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Hampshire

2010 Governor
50% Lynch (D), 39% Stephen (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Lynch: 55 / 42 (chart)
John Stephen: 39 / 32

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 50 (chart)
Gov. Lynch: 55 / 44 (chart)


CO: 2010 Senate (PPP 8/7-8)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/7-8/20; 1,015 likely voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Colorado

2010 Senate
46% Bennet (D), 40% Norton (R) (chart)
46% Bennet (D), 43% Buck (R) (chart)
43% Norton (R), 42% Romanoff (D) (chart)
43% Romanoff (D), 42% Buck (R) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 44 / 50 (chart)
Sen. Udall: 36 / 41 (chart)
Sen. Bennet: 32 / 48 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jane Norton: 28 / 44
Ken Buck: 26 / 46
Andrew Romanoff: 35 / 37


DE: 48% Castle,, 35% Coons (PPP/DailyKos 8/7-8)

Topics: Delaware , poll

Public Policy Polling (D) for DailyKos.com
8/7-8/10; 620 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Delaware

2010 Senate
48% Castle (R), 35% Coons (D) (chart)
44% Coons (D), 37% O'Donnell (R)

2010 House
48% Carney (D), 32% Rollins (R)
48% Carney (D), 30% Urquhart (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Castle: 51 / 32
Chris Coons: 31 / 31
Christine O'Donnell: 23 / 33
John Carney: 31 / 24
Michele Rollins: 18 / 25
Glen Urquhart: 15 / 20

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 50 / 44 (chart)
Sen. Carper: 47 / 33 (chart)
Sen. Kaufman: 37 / 30 (chart)
Gov. Markell: 50 / 32 (chart)


IN: 50% Coats, 29% Ellsworth (Rasmussen 8/4-7)

Topics: National , poll

Rasmussen
8/4-5,7/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
50% Coats (R), 29% Ellsworth (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Coats: 57 / 29
Brad Ellsworth: 39 / 39

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 60
Gov. Daniels: 65 / 33


IA: 55% Grassley, 35% Conlin (Rasmussen 8/5)

Topics: Iowa , poll

Rasmussen
8/5/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Iowa

2010 Senate
55% Grassley (R), 35% Conlin (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chuck Grassley: 63 / 35
Roxanne Conlin: 43 / 44

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 52
Gov. Culver: 37 / 61


GA: 44% Deal, 42% Handel (Landmark 8/7)

Topics: Georgia , poll

Landmark Communications (R)
8/7/10; 623 likely Republican primary voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Landmark release)

Georgia

2010 Governor
44% Deal, 42% Handel (chart)


Comment Outage


A quick note to our commenters -- we will be doing a scheduled server upgrade tonight from about 5-6:30 ET. During that time, you should still be able to access all the content you are familiar with but comments will be turned off. Any comments posted during this time may not appear after the server maintenance.

Update 6:25 PM: Things should be back up and running now


Workplace Attire 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Ezra Klein and Jonathan Chait discuss comparisons between Obama and Reagan on responses to economic recovery.

Patrick Ottenhoff wonders whether Democrats can retain white women in the face of "Mama Grizzlies."

Gary Langer reviews public opinion on unemployment.

The Civitas Institute finds North Carolinians have no idea what "cap and trade" is.

Mark Penn raises money for Charlie Crist (via Goddard).

Tom Jensen shares important findings on baseball manager approval ratings.

Ipsos releases a worldwide survey on proper workplace attire.


US: Generic Ballot (Gallup, Rasmussen 8/2-8)

Topics: Generic House Vote , Poll

National

Gallup
8/2-8/10; 1,600 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
49% Republican, 43% Democrat (chart)


Rasmussen
8/2-8/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 39% Democrat (chart)


IA: 52% Branstad, 36% Culver (Rasmussen 8/5)

Topics: Iowa , poll

Rasmussen
8/5/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Iowa

2010 Governor
52% Branstad (R), 36% Culver (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chet Culver: 38 / 60
Terry Branstad: 56 / 40

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 52
Gov. Culver: 37 / 61


CO: 49% Bennet, 43% Romanoff (PPP 8/7-8)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/7-8/10; 448 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.6% margin of error
767 likely Republican primary voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Colorado

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
49% Bennet, 43% Romanoff (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
45% Norton, 43% Buck (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
41% McInnis, 40% Maes


US: National Survey (Economist 7/31-8/3)

Topics: National , poll

Economist / YouGov
7/31-8/3/10; 1,000 adults
Mode: Internet
(YouGov release)

National

Obama Job Approval
45% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 77 / 18 (chart)
Reps: 9 / 90 (chart)
Inds: 41 / 54 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
12% Approve, 63% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: General Election
Adults: 46% Democrat, 36% Republican
Registered voters: 48% Democrat, 41% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
29% Right Direction, 56% Wrong Track (chart)


SD: 59% Daugaard, 27% Heidepriem (Rasmussen 8/3)

Topics: poll , South Dakota

Rasmussen
8/3/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(RasmussenGovernor, House))

South Dakota

2010 Governor
59% Daugaard (R), 27% Heidepriem (D)

2010 House
51% Noem (R), 42% Herseth Sandlin (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dennis Daugaard: 74 / 20
Scott Heidepriem: 47 / 44

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 58
Gov. Rounds: 69 / 29


KS: 57% Brownback, 34% Holland (Rasmussen 8/4)

Topics: Kansas , poll

Rasmussen
8/4/10; 500 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Kansas

2010 Governor
57% Brownback (R), 34% Holland (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sam Brownback: 57 / 38
Tom Holland: 36 / 31

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 36 / 63
Gov. Parkinson: 58 / 34


RI: 28% Caprio, 27% Chafee, 8% Robitaille (Brown 7/27-30)

Topics: poll , Rhode Island

Brown University
7/27-30/10; 702 registered voters, 3.7% margin of error
123 likely Republican primary voters
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Brown release)

Rhode Island

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
46% Robitaille, 15% Moffitt

2010 Governor: General Election
28% Caprio (D), 27% Chafee (I), 8% Robitaille (R)


NH: 51% Ayotte, 38% Hodes (Rasmussen 8/5)

Topics: New Hampshire , poll

Rasmussen
8/5/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Hampshire

2010 Senate
51% Ayotte (R), 38% Hodes (D) (chart)
46% Binnie (R), 40% Hodes (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kelly Ayotte: 55 / 33
Paul Hodes: 46 / 44
Bill Binnie: 45 / 38

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 50 (chart)
Gov. Lynch: 55 / 44 (chart)


CT: 50% McMahon, 28% Simmons, 15% Schiff (Quinnipiac 8/3-8)

Topics: Connecticut , poll

Quinnipiac
8/3-8/10; 664 likely Republican primary voters
464 likely Democratic primary voters
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Connecticut

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
38% Foley, 30% Fedele, 17% Griebel (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
50% McMahon, 28% Simmons, 15% Schiff (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
45% Lamont, 42% Malloy (chart)


 

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