Pollster.com

August 15, 2010 - August 21, 2010

 

Bed Bug Bites 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Jon Cohen analyzes polling on Obama's faith; Justin Moyer reviews the "other things 20% of Americans believe; Jack Shafer and Allahpundit add more.

Chris Good takes a look at Obama approval in swing states.

Andrew Gelman explains the difficulties of predicting congressional elections from the generic ballot.

Chris Cilizza says 15 Senate seats are in play (via Smith).

Tom Jensen thinks tea party candidates could lead to results differing from the generic ballot.

Roger Simon sarcastically praises Barack Obama's willingness to say what's unpopular.

Ezra Klein puts Obama's job rating trend in context; Jay Cost disagrees.

Jack Shafer discusses Pew's poll on Obama's religion;

Ben Smith shares a Democratic messaging presentation on health reform (based on research by pollsters Lake, Greenberg and Anzalone).

The Republican National Committee targets the Census American Community Survey.

SurveyUSA polls New York City on bed bugs.


MD: 55% Mikulski, 39% Wargotz (Rasmussen 8/27)

Topics: Maryland , poll

Rasmussen
8/17/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Maryland

2010 Senate
55% Mikulski, 39% Wargotz (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Mikulski: 58 / 38
Eric Wargotz: 46 / 23

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 45
Gov. O'Malley: 54 / 45


AL: 58% Bentley, 34% Sparks (Rasmussen 8/19)

Topics: Alabama , poll

Rasmussen
8/19/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Alabama

2010 Governor
58% Bentley (R), 34% Sparks (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Robert Bentley: 66 / 20
Ron Sparks: 47 / 39

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 37 / 61
Gov. Riley: 56 / 42


LA: 48% Vitter, 36% Melancon (Clarus 8/15-16)

Topics: Louisiana , poll

Clarus Research Group for WWL-TV
8/15-16/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(WWLTV story)

Louisiana

2010 Senate: General Election
48% Vitter (R), 36% Melancon (D) (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
74% Vitter, 5% Traylor, 3% Accardo

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
43% Melancon, 3% Chauvin, 2% Deaton


PA, IL: 2012 Primary, Santorum (PPP 8/14-16)

Topics: Illinois , Pennsylvania , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/14-16/10; 400 likely Republican primary voters/state, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Pennsylvania

2012 President: Republican Primary
With Santorum: 17% Huckabee, 17% Palin, 16% Romney, 15% Santorum, 14% Gingrich, 6% Paul
Without Santorum: 20% Romney, 19% Gingrich, 19% Huckabee, 19% Palin, 8% Paul

Illinois

2012 President
23% Gingrich, 21% Huckabee, 18% Palin, 16% Romney, 7% Paul


RI: 2010 Governor (Rasmussen 8/17)

Topics: poll , Rhode Island

Rasmussen
8/17/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Rhode Island

2010 Governor
40% Caprio (D), 33% Chafee (i), 17% Moffitt (R)
38% Caprio (D), 32% Chafee (i), 20% Robitaille (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Robitaille: 36 / 28
Frank Cprio: 66 / 20
Lincoln Chafee: 56 . 40
Victor Moffitt: 32 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 42
Gov. Carcieri: 49 / 48


WY: 58% Mead, 24% Peterson (Rasmussen 8/18)

Topics: poll , Wyoming

Rasmussen
8/18/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Wyoming

2010 Governor
58% Mead (R), 24% Peterson (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Leslie Peterson: 41 / 28
Matt Mead: 69 / 22

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 32 / 67
Gov. Freudenthal: 82 / 18


US: Health Care (CNN 8/6-10)

Topics: National , poll

CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
8/6-10/10; 1,009 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law earlier this year. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?
40% Favor, 56% Oppose (chart)

(IF OPPOSE) Do you oppose that legislation because you think its approach toward health care is too liberal, or because you think it is not liberal enough?
49% Favor (from previous question, 41% Too liberal, 13% Not liberal enough

As you may know, the tax cuts passed into law when George W. Bush was president are set to expire this year. Unless a new bill is passed, federal income tax rates will rise to the level they were at when those cuts were enacted. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view:
31% Those tax cuts should continue for all Americans regardless of how much money they make
51% Those tax cuts should continue for families that make less than 250 thousand dollars a year, but taxes should rise to the previous level for families who make more than that amount
18% Taxes should rise to the previous level for all Americans regardless of how much money they make


GA: 45% Deal, 41% Barnes (InsiderAdvantage 8/18)

Topics: Georgia , poll

InsiderAdvantage
8/18/10; 554 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(InsiderAdvantage release)

Georgia

2010 Governor
45% Deal (R), 41% Barnes (D), 5% Monds (L)

2010 Senate
47% Isakson (R), 35% Thurmond (D), 7% Donovan (L) (chart)


PA: 46% Toomey, 44% Sestak (GHY 8/12-15)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Garin Hart Yang (D) for the DSCC
8/12-15/10; 800 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
46% Toomey (R), 44% Sestak (D) (chart)


AR: 65% Boozman, 27% Lincoln (Rasmussen 8/18)

Topics: Arkansas , poll

Rasmussen
8/18/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Arkansas

2010 Senate
65% Boozman (R), 27% Lincoln (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Blanche Lincoln: 34 / 42
John Boozman: 67 / 26

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 31 / 69
Gov. Beebe: 72 / 26


KY: 42% Conway, 41% Paul (Braun 8/16-18)

Topics: Kentucky , poll

Braun Research / CN2
8/16-18/10; 801 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CN2 release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
42% Conway (D), 41% Paul (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jack Conway: 54 / 23
Rand Paul: 47 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 40 / 58


Less Love for TV 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Chris Cilizza questions the political impact of voters thinking Obama is Muslim; Nicole Allan adds more.

Andrew Stuttaford notices changing views of the role of religion in public life.

Nate Silver responds to Alan Abramowitz on the importance of the generic ballot.

Karl Rove thinks Nate Silver's House model yields "very bad news" for Democrats.

Alex Bratty says President Obama is a gift for Republicans.

Reid Wilson reports on a Democratic poll showing Bush more popular than Obama in key districts.

Noah Scheiber thinks there could be political upside in Obama's Cordoba House support; Dave Weigel says it's not helping the GOP in New York (via Appel).

Americans are falling out of love with television.


US: National Survey (Time 8/18)

Topics: National , poll

Time Magazine / ABT SRBI
8/18/10; 1,002 adults
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Time story)

National

Obama Job Approval
46% Approve, 45% Disapprove (chart)

State of the Country
34% Right Direction, 57% Wrong Track (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Registered voters (N=912): 45% Republican, 40% Democratic
Likely voters (n=827): 47% Republican, 40% Democrat (chart)

Do you personally believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim or a Christian?
47% Christian, 24% Muslim


US: National Survey (Economist 8/14-17)

Topics: National , poll

Economist / YouGov
8/14-17/10; 1,000 adults, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Economist release)

National

Obama Job Approval
43% Approve, 52% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 75 / 20 (chart)
Reps: 12 / 88 (chart)
Inds: 32 / 63 (chart)
Economy: 35 / 59 (chart)
Health Care: 38 / 54 (chart)

State of the Country
28% Right Direction, 61% Wrong Track (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
11% Approve, 68% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress
Adults: 44% Democrat, 39% Republican
Registered voters (N=715): 45% Republican, 45% Democrat (chart)


WA: 50% Murray, 46% Rossi (Rasmussen 8/18)

Topics: poll , Washington

Rasmussen
8/18/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Washington

2010 Senate
50% Murray (D), 46% Rossi (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dino Rossi: 53 / 43
Patty Murray: 52 / 45

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 53 / 47
Gov. Gregoire: 44 / 52


NJ: Christie (Quinnipiac 8/9-17)

Topics: New Jersey , poll

Quinnipiac
8/9-17/10; 1,190 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

New Jersey

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Christie: 51 / 36 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 47 / 47 (chart)


NV: 55% Sandoval, 40% Reid (Rasmussen 8/16)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Rasmussen
8/16/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Governor
55% Sandoval (R), 40% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brian Sandoval: 60 / 33
Rory Reid: 42 / 51


MD: 47% O'Malley, 47% Ehrlich (Rasmussen 8/17)

Topics: Maryland , poll

Rasmussen
8/17/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Maryland

2010 Governor
47% O'Malley (D), 47% Ehrlich (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Martin O'Malley: 55 / 42
Bob Ehrlich: 56 / 38

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 45
Gov. O'Malley: 54 / 45


KS: 69% Moran, 23% Johnston (SurveyUSA 8/12-15)

Topics: Kansas , poll

SurveyUSA
8/12-15/10; 588 likely voters, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Kansas

2010 Governor
67% Brownback (R), 25% Holland (D), 3% Gray (L), 3% Cannon (RP) (chart)

2010 Senate
69% Moran (R), 23% Johnston (D), 3% Dann (L), 2% Bell (RP) (chart)


FL: 39% Crist, 32% Rubio, 16% Meek (Quinnipiac 8/11-16)

Topics: Florida , poll

Quinnipiac
8/11-16/10; 1,096 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Governor
31% Sink (D), 29% McCollum (R), 12% Chiles (i) (chart)
33% Sink (D), 29% Scott (R), 12% Chiles (i) (chart)

2010 Senate
39% Crist (i), 32% Rubio (R), 16% Meek (D) (chart)
40% Crist (i), 32% Rubio (R), 15% Greene (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kendrick Meek: 24 / 25
Jeff Greene: 18 / 31
Maurice Ferre: 7 / 9
Marco Rubio: 35 / 28
Charlie Crist: 53 / 33 (chart)
Bill McCollum: 33 / 43
Alex Sink: 30 / 15
Rick Scott: 28 / 40
Bud Chiles: 15 / 12

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 56 . 35 (chart)
Sen. Nelson: 45 / 33 (chart)
Sen. LeMieux: 22 / 30 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 47 / 47 (chart)


New Pew poll: Obama Muslim myth on the rise

Topics: Barack Obama , misperception , Muslim

The Pew Research Center released a new poll this morning updating its measure of public belief in the misperception that President Obama is a Muslim (coverage: NYT, WP, AP). The news is not good -- belief that Obama is a Muslim increased from 11% in March 2009 to 18% now, while belief that Obama is a Christian declined from 48% to 34% and the group who said they didn't know increased from 34% to 43%. Here's a visualization of change in beliefs about Obama over time using the full time series from the Pew questionnaire (PDF):

Religdist

As Pew notes, "The view that Obama is a Muslim is highest among his political opponents (31% of Republicans and 30% of those who disapprove of his job performance express this view)." If we compare these results with those from March 2009, it's clear that Republican beliefs about Obama's religion have dramatically shifted:

Gopmuslim

The most important issue, though, is why the misperception has increased over time. The Washington Post story does a good job of breaking down different possible explanations:

White House officials expressed dismay over the poll results. Faith adviser Joshua DuBois blamed "misinformation campaigns" by the president's opponents...

Among those who say Obama is a Muslim, 60 percent say they learned about his religion from the media, suggesting that their opinions are fueled by misinformation.

But the shifting attitudes about the president's religious beliefs could also be the result of a public growing less enamored of him and increasingly attracted to labels they perceive as negative. In the Pew poll, 41 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance, compared with 26 percent disapproval in its March 2009 poll.

More than a third of conservative Republicans now say Obama is a Muslim, nearly double the percentage saying so early last year. Independents, too, are now more apt to see the president as a Muslim: Among independents, 18 percent say he is a Muslim, up eight percentage points.

It's extremely difficult to distinguish between these explanations in poll data; both are likely to play a role. In particular, as Republicans and independents view Obama more more unfavorably, they're likely to be more receptive to negative information about him, including false claims about his religion.

For more on why it's so difficult to correct misperceptions like this one, see my Political Behavior article with Jason Reifler (PDF). See also our working paper testing different approaches to correcting the Obama Muslim myth (PDF), which I discussed on NPR's On the Media last year.

Update 8/19 10:20 AM: Time conducted a survey this week (August 16-17) that found similarly disturbing results. Using different question wording and response options, they found that 24% of Americans believe Obama is Muslim:

16. Do you personally believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim or a Christian?

Muslim: 24%
Christian: 47%
Other: 5%
No answer/Don't know: 24%

By contrast, here is the wording for the Pew question:

Now, thinking about Barack Obama's religious beliefs... Do you happen to know what Barack Obama's religion is? Is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist, agnostic, or something else?

While it's possible that the misperception increased due to Obama's comments on Friday about the proposed Muslim community center near Ground Zero (Pew's poll was conducted July 21-August 5), the differences between the questions mean the results are not directly comparable.

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


US: National Survey (Pew 7/21-8/5)

Topics: National , poll

Pew Research Center
7/21-8/5/10; 3,003 adults, 2.5% margin of error
2,431 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
47% Approve, 41% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Registered voters: 45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

In your opinion, should churches and other houses of worship keep out of political matters or should they express their views on day-to-day social and political questions

Now, thinking about Barack Obama's religious beliefs... Do you happen to know what Barack Obama's religion is? Is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist, agnostic, or something else?
34% Christian, 18% Muslim, 1% Buddhist, 43% Don't know

Party ID
33% Democrat, 26% Republican, 34% independent (chart)


Pollster as Poll-ee 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Frank Newport says ideology strongly correlates with enthusiasm this cycle.

Tom Jensen thinks this year's Senate candidate crop is unusually weak.

Tom Schaller discusses the implications of Americans' hatred of Congress.

Jonathan Singer compares an Ipsos KY likely voter sample to past turnout.

Robert Groves shares good news on the cost of the Census.

Gallup finds confidence in newspaper and TV news decreasing.

Patrick Murray writes about taking part in a message-testing poll.


PA: 48% Corbett, 35% Onorato (PPP 8/14-16)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/14-16/10; 585 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Governor
48% Corbett (R), 35% Onorato (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dan Onorato: 30 / 28
Tom Corbett: 33 / 23

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Rendell: 27 / 63 (chart)


KY: 51% Paul, 41% Conway (Rasmussen 8/17)

Topics: Kentucky , Poll

Rasmussen
8/17/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
51% Paul (R), 41% Conway (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rand Paul: 58 / 36
Jack Conway: 47 / 43

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 36 / 63
Gov. Beshear: 53 / 45


FL: 44% Scott, 42% McCollum (Susquehanna 8/12-15)

Topics: Florida , poll

Susquehanna (R) for Sunshine State News
8/12-15/10; 1,000 likely Republican primary voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Sunshine State News article)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
44% Scott, 42% McCollum (chart)


NY: 2010 Senate, Governor (Siena 8/9-12)


Siena
8/9-12/10; 788 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Siena release)

New York

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
43% Lazio, 30% Paladino

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
19% DioGuardi, 8% Blakeman, 5% Malpass

2010 Governor
60% Cuomo (D), 26% Lazio (R) (chart)
60% Cuomo (D), 27% Paladino (R)
56% Cuomo (D), 19% Lazio (R), 12% Paladino (i)
56% Cuomo (D), 16% Lazio (C), 14% Paladino (R)

2010 Senate
55% Gillibrand (D), 28% Blakeman (R) (chart)
54% Gillibrand (D), 29% DioGuardi (R)
55% Gillibrand (D), 27% Malpass (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Paterson: 32 / 60 (chart)
Andrew Cuomo: 61 / 27
Rick Lazio: 32 / 32
Carl Paladino: 22 / 19
Kirsten Gillibrand: 40 / 29 (chart)
Bruce Blakeman: 7 / 10
David Malpass: 6 / 7
Joe DioGuardi: 13 / 12
Michael Bloomberg: 59 / 28

Do you support or oppose the proposal to build the Cordoba House, a 15 story Muslim Cultural Center in lower Manhattan 2 blocks from the site of the World Trade Center?
27% Support, 63% Oppose

Regardless of whether you personally support or oppose the proposal to build the Cordoba House, do you believe the developers of the Cordoba House have a Constitutional right to proceed with the
construction of the mosque and Muslim cultural center or not?

64% Yes, 28% No


IL: 39% Brady, 30% Quinn (PPP 8/14-15)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/14-15/10; 576 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Illinois

2010 Governor
39% Brady (R), 30% Quinn (D), 11% Whitney (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Quinn: 23 / 53

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bill Brady: 25 / 30
Rich Whitney: 5 / 13


US: National Survey (AP-GfK 8/11-16)

Topics: National , poll

AP-GfK
8/11-16/10; 1,007 adults, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(AP-GfK release)

National

State of the Country
35% Right Direction, 60% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 50% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 41 / 56 (chart)
Health care: 45 / 53 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
24% Approve, 74% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Registered voters (N=890): 49% Republican, 45% Democrat (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 56 / 43 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 41 / 54 (chart)
Hillary Clinton: 65 / 34 (chart)
George W. Bush: 44 / 54
Bill Clinton: 65 / 33

Party ID
32% Democrat, 25% Republican, 31% independent (chart)


OH: 52% Kasich, 40% Strickland (Rasmussen 8/16)

Topics: Ohio , poll

Rasmussen
8/16/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Ohio

2010 Governor
52% Kasich (R), 42% Strickland (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ted Strickland: 44 / 51 (chart)
John Kasich: 51 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 54 (chart)
Gov. Strickland: 41 / 56 (chart)


NV: 50% Angle, 48% Reid (Rasmussen 8/16)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Rasmussen
8/16/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
50% Angle (R), 48% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 44 / 55 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 43 / 56

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 55 (chart)
Gov. Gibbons: 36 / 63 (chart)


FL: 35% Meek, 28% Greene, 6% Ferre (Quinnipiac 8/11-16)

Topics: Florida , poll

Quinnipiac
8/11-16/10; 807 likely Republican primary voters, 3.5% margin of error
814 likely Democratic primary voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
44% McCollum, 35% Scott

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
35% Meek, 28% Greene, 6% Ferre


Kendrick Meek Hitting His Targets

Topics: 2010 , Florida , Ipsos , Jeff Greene , Kendrick Meek , Mason-Dixon

It is not unusual to see highly contradictory poll results in statewide primary elections, but it's rare when we can find easy explanations for those differences. In the case of next week's Democratic primary for Senate in Florida, however, those differences are becoming increasingly clear.

Last week, I shared my hunch that the handful of polls pointing to a close outcome in the race were likely understating the support that Rep. Kendrick Meek would eventually receive in his race against self-funded billionaire Jeff Greene. Three new surveys released last weekend -- by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Sunshine State News/VSS and the Meek campaign itself -- all show Meek now leading by margins of between 8 and 15 percentage points. The poll by Ipsos Public Affairs, on the other hand, shows Greene maintaining an 8-point lead (40% to 32%) among a small subsample of 237 Florida Democrats.

2010-08-17-Blumenthal-RecentFLpolls.png

The most likely explanation for the difference involves turnout or, more precisely, the challenge of sampling the likely electorate for the Democratic primary. The last two August Democratic primaries held in Florida attracted just over 800,000 of the state's 5.4 million registered Democrats. At that size, the Democratic primary electorate would represent less than 5 percent of Florida's more than 14 million adults. Measuring a target like that is tough for any survey.

To get close, the surveys conducted by Sunshine State News and the Meek campaign used official voter lists to select and dial voters with some prior history of casting ballots in Democratic primaries. The Mason-Dixon survey began with a random-digit sample of all adults in Florida, but then screened for registered voters who say they "vote regularly in state elections" and that they are likely to vote in next weeks' primary.

Ipsos did something very different. Like Mason-Dixon, they began with a random-digit-dial sample of adults and screened for a total sample of 602 registered voters. But to get their sample of Democrats, they screened only on self-reported party identification, selecting the 43% of their full sample of registered voters that identifies or leans Democratic. As such, their sample represents a population of nearly 5 million of Florida's 11 million registered voters. Again, based on past history, the likely turnout is likely to be less than 1 million.

In fairness, Ipsos was doing what a lot of media pollsters do. Their survey was focused mostly on the general election and they appear to have included the primary voter question almost as an afterthought. Nevertheless, the looser likely voter screen they used helps explain why their Democratic primary subgroup is so much friendlier to Greene than the samples drawn by the other pollsters. It probably includes many voters who rarely vote in Democratic primaries and have less knowledge of or affinity for Meek, whose campaign has been touting endorsements from mainline Democrats like Bill Clinton.

On a related issue, Mason-Dixon's president, Brad Coker, kindly shared a cross-tabulation of the results of their poll by the race, education and ideology subgroups I wrote about last week. It turns out that the Mason-Dixon sample includes far more white, college educated liberals (32%) than an earlier survey by Quinnipiac University (14%), though the gap in those numbers may be due to differences in the questions about education or ideology. Nevertheless, the tabulation of results shows a pattern closer to my hunch about where the race seemed headed last week: Meek runs ahead among African-Americans by a margin of 59% to 9% and wins college-educated white liberals by almost two to one (54% to 23%).

2010-08-17-Blumenthal-MasonDixonGroups.png

Again, as I wrote last week, I'd expect Meeks' share of the African American vote to exceed 80%, so given the margins among other voters, Meek appears headed for a comfortable win next Tuesday.

[Cross-posted to the Huffington Post].


KY: 45% Paul, 40% Conway (Ipsos/Reuters 8/13-15)

Topics: Kentucky , poll

Ipsos/Reuters
8/13-15/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
435 likely voters, 4.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Reuters story)

Kentucky

2010 Senate
Likely voters: 45% Paul (R), 40% Conway (D) (chart)
Registered voters: 40% Paul (R), 40% Conway (D)


MO: 45% Blunt, 38% Carnahan (PPP/Kos 8/14-15)

Topics: Missouri , poll

Public Policy Polling (D) for DailyKos.com
8/14-15/10; 690 likely voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(story, toplines)

Missouri

2010 Senate
45% Blunt (R), 38% Carnahan (D), 5% Beck (C), 3% Dine (L) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 41 / 42
Robin Carnahan: 41 / 50

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 39 / 57 (chart)
Sen. Bond: 41 / 41 (chart)
Sen. McCaskill: 40 / 53 (chart)
Gov. Nixon: 43 / 38 (chart)


Abramowitz: OMG! GOP Up by 7 in Gallup Tracking Poll

Topics: Gallup , Generic House Vote , Interpreting polls , Likely Voters

Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. He is also a frequent contributer to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

If you heard a loud thump on Monday afternoon it just may have been the sound of worried Democrats hitting the panic button. That's when the latest Gallup weekly tracking poll was released and it showed Republicans with their largest lead yet on the generic ballot--7 points. It's the third consecutive week that Republicans have had a significant lead--following a 5 point lead two weeks ago and a 6 point lead last week. And that's among all registered voters, not just those likely to vote in November. Once Gallup begins screening for likely voters the GOP lead will almost certainly get larger since registered Republicans traditionally turn out at a higher rate than registered Democrats and this year Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats.

But do Gallup's latest results actually mean that Republicans are likely to maintain a significant advantage on the generic ballot? Not necessarily. A closer examination of Gallup's weekly generic ballot data indicates that the current GOP advantage is likely to shrink over the next few weeks. In fact almost all of the week-to-week change in the standing of the parties appears to be due to random variation. There is little evidence of any real trend, at least so far.

Over the past 18 weeks, from April 12-18 through August 8-15, Republicans have received an average of 46% of the vote to 45% for Democrats on the generic ballot. There has been considerable week-to-week variation, from a 6 point Democratic lead only four weeks ago, to the current 7 point Republican lead, but no clear trend. Over this period, the correlation between the week of the survey and the size of the GOP lead is a very small and statistically insignificant .14.

Figure 1 displays both the week-to-week and the five week running averages for the Republican margin on the generic ballot between week 5 and week 14 of the Gallup weekly tracking poll. While the weekly average has shown considerable volatility, the five week running average has been fairly stable, fluctuating between a 2 point Democratic lead and a 2 point Republican lead with no clear trend.

The results in Figure 1 suggest that the weekly fluctuations in the generic ballot results are largely random. This conclusion is reinforced by the fact that there is a fairly large negative correlation of -.55 (p < .025) between the size of the GOP lead one week and the change in the size of that lead the next week. This means that the larger the GOP margin in a given week, the more that lead tends to shrink in the following week. These results again suggest that the week to week variation in the results is largely random.

Of course the fact that the current 7 point Republican lead on the generic ballot is likely to shrink doesn't alter the fact that Republicans are poised to make substantial gains in the midterm election. Even a tie on the generic ballot, given normal turnout patterns, is good news for the GOP. So while it may not be time yet for Democrats to hit the panic button, there is plenty of reason for them to be worried.


Alan Abramowitz on turning House votes into seats

Topics: Generic House Vote , House of Representatives

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz sent out a useful analysis today that he's given me permission to post:

From fivethirtyeight.com today:

[T]here is another issue at hand: how much does the generic ballot really tell us about what will happen on Election Day? It might be the case that the generic ballot is fairly stable, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's all that useful an indicator. In addition to the fact that the consensus of polls (however careful we are about calibrating it) might be off in one or the other direction, there's also the fact that the thing which the generic ballot is ostensibly trying to predict -- the national House popular vote -- is relatively irrelevant to the disposition of the chamber, or the number of seats that each party earns. Instead, what we want to know is how the generic ballot translates into each of the 435 congressional districts; this is the sort of problem that we're hard at work upon.

Nate provides a lot of excellent analysis. But there are two pretty silly statements here. First, the generic ballot is a pretty good predictor of both the national popular vote and the national seat results. Second, the national popular vote is a very good predictor of the overall seat results. It definitely is not "relatively irrelevant" to those results. For all House elections since WW II, the correlation between national vote share and national seat share is a whopping .93:

Image001

For more on how the national vote translates into seats in the House, see Andrew Gelman and his co-authors on the 2006 and 2008 elections.

Update 8/19 10:01 AM: Silver responds here. For more on how the generic ballot can be used to forecast House election outcomes, see Abramowitz's 2006 PS article (PDF).

[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]


PA: 48% Toomey, 40% Sestak (Rasmussen 8/16)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Rasmussen
8/16/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
48% Toomey (R), 40% Sestak (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Pat Toomey: 56 / 30
Joe Sestak: 44 / 44

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 56 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 39 / 60 (chart)


IL: 37% Giannoulias, 35% Kirk (PPP 8/14-15)

Topics: Illinois , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/14-15/10; 576 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Illinois

2010 Senate
37% Giannoulias (D), 35% Kirk (R), 9% Jones (i) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Alexi Giannoulias: 26 / 42
Mark Kirk: 26 / 34
LeAlan Jones: 4 / 12

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 46
Sen. Burris: 20 / 55
Sen. Durbin: 50 / 38


OH: 48% Portman, 39% Fisher (Rasmussen 8/16)

Topics: Ohio , poll

Rasmussen
8/16/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Ohio

2010 Senate
48% Portman (R), 39% Fisher (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rob Portman: 51 / 23
Lee Fisher: 41 / 34

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 54 (chart)


US: National Survey (Politico 8/6-11)

Topics: National , poll

Penn Shoen Berland for Politico
8/6-11/10; 1,668 adults, 2.4% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Politico: results, story)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
35% Democrat, 31% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
32% Right Direction, 58% Wrong Track (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 51 / 46 (chart)
Hillary Clinton: 53 / 41 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 35 / 57 (chart)
Mike Huckabee: 33 / 31 (chart)
Mitt Romney: 29 / 33 (chart)

2012 President
40% Generic Republican, 38% Obama
50% Obama, 33% Palin
42% Obama, 33% Romney
42% Obama, 23% Pawlenty
43% Obama, 35% Huckabee
43% Obama, 21% Barbour


PA: 45% Toomey, 36% Sestak (PPP 8/14-16)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/14-16/10; 585 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
45% Toomey (R), 36% Sestak (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Joe Sestak: 28 / 38
Pat Toomey: 36 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 40 / 55 (chart)
Sen. Specter: 27 / 57 (chart)


FL: 45% McCollom, 33% Scott (FLCOC 8/11-12)

Topics: Florida , poll

McLaughlin & Associates (R) for Florida Chamber of Commerce
8/11-12/10; 600 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(FL Chamber of Commerce release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
45% McCollum, 33% Scott (chart)


Palin Sinking? Or Over Reading the Horse Race?

Topics: Clarus , Sampling Error , Sarah Palin

I was on vacation last week, but nearly interrupted it when I saw the press release from D.C. public relations firm Clarus, touting the results of its new survey. "PALIN SUPPORT FOR GOP NOMINATION SINKS," the headline blared, followed by this lead paragraph:

A new nationwide survey of Republican voters finds that support for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to win the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination has fallen by one-third since March, sliding from 18 points to 12 points. Palin is now running in fourth place for the nomination behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The release has several lessons to teach us about how to best interpret horse race polling. First, the headline struck me as overly dramatic, especially when I checked the methodology. The survey, conducted from July 26-27, interviewed just 374 "registered voters nationwide who self-identified as Republicans or as Independents who lean Republican," yielding a reported margin of sampling error of +/- 5%. The March survey interviewed 415 Republicans or Republican leaners, so the margin of error would have been roughly the same.

It's not hard to do the math on that. Eighteen percentage points minus five (or 13%) is less than 12 percentage points plus five (17%). So I assumed, at first glance, that the much heralded drop in Palin's support was not statistically significant.

Problem is, the margin of error is a little more complicated than my quick arithmetic. While the references at the bottom of news articles and press releases rarely explain it, the margin of error gets smaller as a given result gets closer to zero or one hundred percent (explained in more detail here). In this case the sampling error probably shrinks just enough to make 18% and 12% "significantly" different had the two questions asked in March and July been identical (and I say "probably" because without knowing how severely Clarus weighted their samples, I can't calculate the precise margins of error).

And that brings me to the second lesson: The margin of error tells us nothing about what happens when the pollster changes the question, which Clarus did here in two important ways. First, in March Clarus asked Republicans to choose among seven potential candidates: Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, John Thune, and Mitch Daniels. Last month, they presented nine choices. They dropped Bush (who received 8%) and added Lamar Alexander, Haley Barbour and Tim Pawlenty (who received a combined 8%). So was the apparent change in Palin's support about a decline in her support, or were Barbour, Pawlenty and Alexander collectively more attractive to some potential Palin supporters than Jeb Bush?

Equally important, Clarus changed the root question. In March, they asked Republicans which candidate they "would now most likely favor." On the more recent survey, they asked which they would favor "if you had to vote today." Is it a coincidence that the undecided percentage grew by five points (from 10% to 15%) when respondents were pressed how they would have to vote "today?" I think not.

We might also consider the results of other polls. CNN, which has asked an identical Republican preference question three times this year, shows Palin with exactly the same support a week ago (18%) as in March (18%). A new PPP survey released just this afternoon finds essentially the same result.

Also, a dozen or so national pollsters have been asking national samples of adults or registered voters to rate Palin (favorably or unfavorably), and our chart shows no consistent pattern in their measurements over the course of 2010 (click on the individual black and red dots on the interactive chart below to see the trends of individual pollsters).

And finally, there is a lesson about the value of this sort of horse race question, especially when asked at this stage of the contest. What they tell us about the Republican nomination race shaping up for 2012 is that none of the potential candidates -- not Palin, Romney, Gingrich nor Huckabee -- are the sort dominant front runner likely to begin with a huge advantage based on early name recognition or support. The same was true at this point four years ago when polls showed Rudy Guiliani as the "front runner" in early trial heat questions. Those early "leads" turned out to be meaningless as the real races in the early primary states got underway.

Over the weekend, Kevin Madden, the former press secretary to Mitt Romney during the 2008 campaign, tweeted that "2012 horserace polls are like pre-season football: Fun to watch for a few minutes until you realize they don't matter." That's about right.

[Cross-posted at the Huffington Post].


US: National Survey (Economist 8/7-10)

Topics: National , poll

YouGov / Economist
8/7-10/10; 1,000 adults
Mode: Internet
(YouGov release)

National

Obama Job Approval
45% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 80 / 16 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 89 (chart)
Inds: 36 / 57 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
12% Approve, 64% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Adults: 46% Democrat, 36% Republican
Registered voters (n=716): 48% Democrat, 42% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
30% Right Direction, 56% Wrong Track (chart)


Dr. Laura 'Outliers' (and note on comment problems)

Topics: Outliers Feature

Gallup notes new lows in Obama approval in their three-day and weekly averages; Sean Trende adds more.

Ron Brownstein predicts a long slog of public disillusion and alienation.

Whit Ayres argues it's still the year of the outsider.

Ezra Klein revives comparison of public opinion on Obama to Reagan.

Carl Bialik explores the challenges in estimating religious populations (more here).

Craig Burnett and Vladimir Kogan discuss framing and ballot initiatives (via the Sacramento Bee).

Jim Geraghty highlights a batch of House polls for a conservative group.

Andrew Gelman revises and extends his "game over" post.

Gary Langer fact-checks Dr. Laura on Obama voters.

A non-outliers related aside: we have been working behind the scenes to fix the comment problems many users experienced over the weekend and this morning, which were caused be some recent server changes. We've made progress, but there seem to be some lingering issues for some users so please email questions@pollster.com if any problems persist. We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused.


US: Generic Ballot (Gallup, Rasmussen 8/9-15)

Topics: National , poll

National

Gallup
8/9-15/10; 1,600 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
50% Republican, 43% Democrat (chart)


Rasmussen
8/9-15/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 36% Democrat (chart)


Ground Zero, Waters and Wikileaks - The Democrats' Wasted Week


The President made the inexplicable decision to enter the fray on the Ground Zero mosque controversy this weekend and within 24 hours did a walk-back on the issue. The Sunday talk shows were abuzz. Our take this Monday morning is pretty straightforward:

  1. Why would the President make a statement on the mosque at all? You get the sense that this White House and this President feels as though they need to be part of every public dialogue. They seem to have difficulty remaining focused.
  2. The White House is still wasting news cycles on unimportant skirmishes when it should be all about the economy and jobs (and perhaps some defense of the conduct of the war).

Democrats may be shaking their collective heads this morning and for good reason. Let's start by taking time to reflect on last week and the political state of play.

Who would have guessed that a week in which the Gulf oil leak had been finally and officially sealed would be one that Democrats and the White House would view as a complete disaster? Last week began with myriad "double-dip recession" stories on the heels of the August 6th unemployment report. Then Democrat Charlie Rangel took the floor in defense of his ethics charges and by week's end Democrat Maxine Waters did the same. Along the way, Wikileaks announced yet another tranche of released documents: 15,000 of them highlighting problems with the war in Afghanistan, thereby further eroding public confidence in our engagement there. In short, last week was a very bad one for Democrats, and it's unclear whether things are going to look up for them any time soon.

Here is our up-to-the-minute take on the current political environment:

1. The "double-dip" recession has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This has been a "go to" media story for more than a month and the public has finally bought into it. According to a July Democracy Corps survey, only 35% of voters said the economy was improving. This was down from 45% in April. Additionally, 35% said that the economy was "getting worse" and 25% said it had "bottomed out." More economists came out last week arguing that we were indeed in a double dip. Our sense is that the public will be convinced of this by September and consumer confidence (already low) will drop even further, making the double-dip all but inevitable.

2. The economy remains the elephant in the room and will be the defining issue in November. What is especially problematic for Democrats is that there is an increasing body of empirical evidence to suggest that the economy is actually getting worse. This of course seems self evident, but when you see some of the arguments being made on the campaign trail you might think otherwise. The indicators are substantial:

a. Real GDP growth has slowed each of the past two quarters (3.7% in Q1 then 2.4% in Q2) after a seemingly-strong 2009 Q4 (5.0%).
b. Meanwhile, the CPI has been negative for the most recent three months, suggesting the possibility of deflation.
c. The unemployment rate has held in the 9.5 - 10.0% range after peaking at 10.1% last October, registering at 9.5% for both June and July. However, because of seasonal adjustments and a reduction in the labor force--it has been shrinking since mid-2009--the headline unemployment number does not show the underlying contraction in jobs in the past two months. After growing throughout the first four months of 2010, job growth was virtually flat in May and the household survey registered losses measured at 301,000 in June and 159,000 in July.
d. The Consumer Confidence Index also dropped sharply in July (to 50.4), down from 54.3 in June. From the release:

Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased to 45.8 percent from 43.5 percent, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" remained unchanged at 4.3 percent. Consumers' short-term outlook also deteriorated further in July. The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next six months decreased to 15.9 percent from 17.1 percent, while those anticipating conditions will worsen rose to 15.7 percent from 13.9 percent. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future job prospects. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 14.3 percent from 16.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 21.1 percent from 20.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 10.0 percent from 10.6 percent.

3. President Obama may in fact be losing the confidence of the American people. Surely the economic crisis was a primary driver of this decline, but it is also came from the Gulf oil spill and the perceived execution of the ongoing war in Afghanistan. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated that "nearly six in ten voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country," and two thirds say they "are disillusioned with or angry about the way the federal government is working." Nearly 6 in 10 said they did not have "confidence" in Obama's decisions.

4. With the exception of a few select races, the Tea Party is largely irrelevant in this upcoming election. Contrary to what Eugene Robinson and other pundits have argued, the elections this November are not going to be a referendum on the "wackiness of the Tea Party." Yes, controversial statements and policy positions will have some impact on individual races (think Sharron Angle in Nevada or Rand Paul in Kentucky) but this election is about the economy, and it will be a referendum on the President and the party in power; it really is that simple. And no amount of pontificating on the zaniness of the Tea Party movement will trump that fact.

5. The fact that there is no real "face" of the GOP may actually be a help in November. While the DNC and Democratic strategists have tried to make the Tea Party and Sarah Palin the face of the party, it simply isn't working. This is not 1996 (post-government shutdown) when Newt Gingrich became an albatross around the neck of the GOP and Bob Dole. Rightly or wrongly, Newt became a negative symbol for the Democrats to hang their hat on. In this economic environment that will not stick.

6. If the country's "wrong track" numbers remain where they are--they have averaged approximately 59% for the year--this will be one of the worst five year periods since Watergate, a debilitating scenario for the President and Democrats this fall. The data is what it is: only three in ten Americans believe the country is going in the right direction. And in many battleground states it is even worse than that.

View image

As the mosque controversy draws valuable time and energy from the White House, the voters are still focused where they have been for 2 years: on a very weak economy with few hopeful signs. This is the issue for the mid-terms and the President and Democrats need to get a handle on it in the next 30-60 days or there may be catastrophic electoral consequences in November.

Thanks to John Zirinsky and Peter Ventimiglia for their thoughts and insights. Follow us on Twitter @lcgpolling.


US: 2012 Primary (PPP 8/6-9)

Topics: National , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/6-9/10; 400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

2012 President
23% Huckabee, 22% Romney, 21% Gingrich, 21% Palin, 4% Paul


ME: 38% LePage, 30% Mitchell, 16% Cutler (Rasmussen 8/12)

Topics: Maine , poll

Rasmussen
8/12/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Maine

2010 Governor
38% LePage (R), 30% Mitchell (D), 16% Cutler (i)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Paul LePage: 55 / 35
Libby Mitchell: 50 / 43
Eliot Cutler: 43 / 35

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 46
Gov. Baldacci: 45 / 54


CT: 48% Malloy, 335 Foley (Rasmussen 8/11)

Topics: Connecticut , poll

Rasmussen
8/11/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Connecticut

2010 Governor
48% Malloy (D), 33% Foley (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Thomas Foley: 45 / 41
Dan Malloy: 53 / 33

Job Approval / Disapproval
Barack Obama: 55 / 46 (chart)
Gov. Rell: 65 / 35 (chart)


FL: 45% Meek, 30% Greene (Susquehanna 8/9-12)

Topics: Florida , poll , Primary election , senate

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for the Sunshine State News
8/9-12/10; 1000 likely Democratic primary voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated Phone
(Sunshine State News article)

Florida

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
45% Meek, 30% Greene, 8% Ferre (chart)


ND: 69% Hoeven, 25% Potter (Rasmussen 8/10-11)

Topics: North Dakota , poll

Rasmussen
8/10-11/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: Senate, House)

North Dakota

2010 Senate
69% Hoeven (R), 25% Potter (D) (chart)

2010 House
53% Berg (R), 44% Pomeroy (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Tracy Potter: 36 / 43
John Hoeven: 83 / 13
Earl Pomeroy: 49 / 48
Rick Berg: 56 / 31

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres/ Obama: 42 / 58
Gov. Hoeven: 84 / 16


GA: 55% Isakson, 41% Thurmond (Rasmussen 8/11)

Topics: Georgia , poll , senate

Rasmussen
8/11/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Georgia

2010 Senate
55% Isakson (R), 41% Thurmond (D) (trend)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Johnny Isakson: 58 / 34
Michael Thurmond: 48 / 33


FL: 40% Meek, 26% Greene (Mason-Dixon 8/9-11)

Topics: Florida , Poll , Primary election , Senate

Mason-Dixon
8/9-11/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Mason-Dixon release)

Florida

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
40% Meek, 26% Greene, 5% Ferre, 1% Burkett (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
38% Rubio, 33% Crist, 18% Meek (chart)
39% Crist (i), 38% Rubio (R), 12% Greene (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable / Neutral
Marco Rubio: 41 / 35 / 18
Barack Obama: 41 / 48 / 11
Charlie Crist: 39 / 35 / 25 (chart)
Kendrick Meek: 26 / 37 / 19
Jeff Greene: 16 / 41/ 30


FL: 2010 Gov and Sen (Ipsos 8/6-10)

Topics: Florida , Governor , poll , Primary elections , Senate

Ipsos for the Miami Herald, St. Petersburg Times, BayNews9, and Central Florida News 13
8/6-10/10; 602 registered voters, 4% margin of error
275 registered Republicans, 5.9% margin of error
237 registered Democrats, 6.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Ipsos Release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
45% Scott, 34% McCollum (chart)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
40% Greene, 32% Meek, 5% Ferre (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
33% Sink (D), 31% McCollum (R), 14% Chiles (i) (chart)
33% Scott (R), 31% Sink (D), 17% Chiles (i) (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
38% Crist (i), 33% Rubio (R), 19% Meek (D) (chart)
34% Crist (i), 32% Rubio (R), 22% Greene (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 51 / 38 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 44 / 51 (chart)


 

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