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A Few Notable Patterns from the National Exit Polls


The New York Times has a great tool for comparing vote patterns among a few basic demographic groups going back to 1980. Here are a few patterns that stand out:

Women:
Obama won women by 13% over McCain. That is the second largest gender gap since 1980 (only Clinton's 16% advantage in 1996 was larger).

Men: The national exit poll currently shows Obama with a 1% edge over McCain among men. The only other Democrat to win men since 1980 was Bill Clinton in 1992. But that was in a three-candidate race, so Obama's share of the male vote (49%) was the highest for any Democratic candidate during the last eight presidential elections.

African Americans: African Americans made up a larger share (13%) of the electorate than they had in any of the past eight presidential elections. In addition, Obama won 96% of the black vote whereas previous Democratic nominees failed to do better than 90%.

Hispanics: Hispanic voters continued a pattern that began in 2006 by renewing their strong support for Democratic candidates. Obama captured two-thirds of Hispanic voters, who made up 8% of the electorate.

Young Voters: Obama won two-thirds of the 18-29 age group. This is the fifth straight presidential election that Democrats have won the youth vote. However, Obama's margin with this group is substantially greater than any previous Democratic nominee. In fact, no candidate has won any of the standard exit poll age groups by as big a margin as Obama won the 18-29 vote in this election.

youngvote.PNG

 

Comments
damitajo1:

Here's another one: Obama, as have all other Democrats since '64, failed to win a majority of white votes. Basically Democrats win due to the large states that have a coalition of white - black - and latino voters. This does not work in the Deep South or in the Mountain States. Nevada and NM wins came in large part from Latinos.

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carl29:

I hope no other non-white candidate has to live with the constant "Bradley Effect" goths.

FLORIDA:

Obama support in polls 49%
Obama actual vote 51%(+2)

OHIO:

Obama support in polls 48.8%
Obama actual vote 51%(+2.2)

PENNSYLVANIA:

Obama support in polls 51%
Obama actual vote 55%(+4)

VIRGINIA:

Obama support in the polls 50.2%
Obama actual vote 51.8%(+1.6)

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Obama support in the polls 52.8%
Obama actual vote 55%(+2.2)

INDIANA:

Obama support in the polls 46.4%
Obama actual vote 49.9%(+2.5)

COLORADO:

Obama support in the polls 50.8%
Obama actual vote 53%(+2.2)

NEW MEXICO:

Obama support in the polls 50.3%
Obama actual vote 56.8%(+5.5)

NEVADA:

Obama support in the polls 50.3%
Obama actual vote 55.1%(+4.8)

MISSOURI:

Obama support in the polls 47.8%
Obama actual vote 49%(+1.2)

NORTH CAROLINA:

Obama support in the polls 48%
Obama actual vote 50?

IOWA:

Obama support in the polls 54%
Obama actual vote 54% :-)

MINNESOTA:

Obama support in the polls 51.6%
Obama actual vote 54.2%(+2.6)

WISCONSIN:

Obama support in the polls 52.8%
Obama actual vote 55.8%(+3)

MICHIGAN:

Obama support in the polls 52.5%
Obama actual vote 57.3%(+4.8)


President-elect Obama OVERPERFORM his polls numbers on election day :-)

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cinnamonape:

Good list Carl! I suppose one could argue for a Bradley effect in Arizona, North Dakota, Utah, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska (I suspect Georgia will drift upward once those Atlanta early votes are tabulated).

But as I noted above, almost all these states were rarely polled so that they were likely to have pretty big errors from the final outcome. In addition, there were large "undecideds" in these states as the polls didn't generally cover them in the week before the election. The pollster averages thus included several earlier polls that had many undecideds and devalued later polls that showed the shift to McCain. So what appears to be a "Bradley effect" is actually merely the undecideds shifting towards what the states final outcome might be (e.g. 55-45 McCain).

That might explain the shift in the other states towards Obama (at least ijn the "blue states"). The undecideds simply broke proportionately to the "decideds" in the state.

That's not evidence of "hidden" racism...at least not any more than existed in the decision-making processes of the "decided voters". The "Bradley Effect" argues that people deceive the pollers about their actual intentions. That doesn't seem to be the case.

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Vicente Duque:


The quintessential Obama voter is a young working woman, not protestant and not very religious, living in a Big Metro Area and with higher education, graduate or postgrad. Or perhaps she is a minority and so will be more motivated towards democrats. If she is Catholic or Jewish she will be more motivated to Obama. I guess Italians, Irish and Polish voted largely Obama.

The ultimate McCain voter is an old white man living in a small town, very protestant, and strongly religious, and with no college education or very little of that.

Obama seems to attract the PostIndustrial Service economy and their workers.

McCain attracts the Industrial Blue Collar Workers or the Agriculture type of People.

There is a famous phrase "people in small towns that cling to Religion and Guns"

Those people are perhaps not the best friends of gays.

So "God, Guns and Gays" is a touchstone to see the kind of mineral.

Milenials.com

Raciality.com

Vicente Duque

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