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A Full Weekends Worth of "Outliers"

Topics: Outliers Feature

Concluding the TPMCafe polling discussion, George Bishop considers the business as usual of polling, Mike Traugott reacts to Bishop and Moore, and David Moore presents explains his argument that media polls "manufacture" public opinion.

Eugene Robinson worries that we're a bit too obsessed (but there's a college professor in Indiana I need to thank).

The Wall Street Journal's Ellen Gamerman has much more on our poll-watching pastime (and points to the first reader to guess which of the avid poll watchers knew me in Junior High).

Gallup reports on early voting, and the surprisingly high candidate favorable ratings.

Gary Langer blogs the ABC/Post numbers on views of divided government and ground game contacts.

Nate Silver plots a "path to a McCain victory that doesn't include Pennsylvania" (as Ben Smith puts it), but includes New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.

PPP compiles their numbers on first time voters.

Tom Holbrook follows up on John Sides' analysis of the Jewish vote.

Brenden Nyhan uses some spiffy charts to debunk Steve Schmidt.

Jay Cost tosses in his two cents about the different results polls are producing.

Chris Bowers sees signs of a tightening race (sorta).

Josh Marshall notices that Palin ranks third among Republicans as a choice for 2012.

Strategic Vision gets death threats.

Nielsen reports on ad buys.

Shaun Dakin's database logs all campaign robo-calls (via Ambinder).

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Comments

A new ironic Palin cartoon at the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog: "ItsAllMcCainsFault.com" (no. 2 in a series).

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dkfennell:

The reference to Neilson on ad buys links to the NRO story on Strategic Vision right above it.

Since I'm posting this anyway, and since there's otherwise no other place to put it, let me make an observation here: The news feed from "PoliticsHome.com" on the right column of this site is truly bad. The selections are largely trivial, often to things that had occured long before (note the Charles Fried endorsement of Obama) and to sources not particularly credible. The Online100 polls are particularly silly. I guess they are designed for people who want to know what a bunch of anonymous writers conclude without having to actually read (much less evaluate) their columns. Is this news feed pollster.com's answer to syndicated horoscopes?

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Gary Kilbride:

No one wants to make a junior high stab? I'll guess: Sudipta Bandyopadhyay.

LOL. What was his nickname?

Actually, if I had to pick one it would be Hank Kornblut, the deli guy. There's no age indication there but Cleveland Heights, Ohio sparked a memory that you've mentioned Cleveland before.

Good set of links. At this time of night, and on half an Ambien, I liked that most of the articles weren't too long. The item that struck me was the Gallup detail of vast early voting difference from West to East, 50% in the West saying they had voted early, or planned to, compared to a paltry 10% in those two categories in the East. Is that primarily opportunity or preference?

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Chicago:

Why lean a state when its within the margin of error as so many do? Even assuming no lying to pollsters which I still assert will be big. Why do people still think registering and voting are the same? Add stolen votes and suppression to exaggerated polling and its McCain in 08.

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geoff:

I,ve a question for Mark on exitpolls on election day! How do these exitpolls take into account early voting and absentee ballot voting?

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MNW:

I knew Mark in college at UM, but not jr. high school.

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RS:

@Chicago:
Please be a little more specific, or you just sound like a concern troll.
Pollster.com bases its classifications on MOE considerations, though how the trendline MOE is calculated may engender some debate.

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Vicente Duque:

Unimaginable and Impossible, but it could happen :

McCain losing Arizona.

Some websites, polls, bets and observations are suggesting that McCain could lose Arizona ( not very probable )

Daily Kos has two Arizona Polls :

Project New West: McCain 44; Obama 40
Zimmerman & Associates: McCain 44; Obama 42

So McCain is not so strong in Arizona.

Obama Closing On... ARIZONA!!!
by Justashotaway
Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 10:50

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/27/1280/5792

Dawn Teo in the Huffington Post observed total lack of enthusiasm for McCain in Phoenix and Tucson :

"McCain Home-State Offices Remain Empty While Polls Tighten; Obama Offices Bustling"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dawn-teo/a-tale-of-two-campaigns-i_b_137722.html

I am working to gather useful information in my sites :

TossUpStates.com and Milenials.com

Vicente Duque

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Gary Kilbride:

Drat, looks like I guessed wrong. Last night I was fairly confident I had it, based on remembering that Cleveland tidbit.

MNW, that's interesting you know Mark. I assume UM is Michigan, even though that abbreviation means Canes where I come from.

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Mark Blumenthal:

@Gary: Nope, you are the lucky winner! If we had a Pollster coffee mug, I'd send you one.

@MNW: Hmm, the initials alone don't ring a bell, but it's probably sleep deprivation. Email me? Always good to stay in touch.

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Gary Kilbride:

I'm on a winning streak. :)

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