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AK: 47% Miller, 39% McAdams (PPP 8/27-28)

Topics: Alaska , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/27-28/10; 1,306 likely voters, 2.7% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Alaska

2010 Senate
47% Miller (R), 39% McAdams (D)
60% Murkowski (R), 28% McAdams (D)
38% Miller (R), 34% Murkowski (L), 22% McAdams (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Joe Miller: 36 / 52
Scott McAdams: 23 / 24

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Murkowski: 50 / 43
Sen. Begich: 42 / 50
Pres. Obama: 44 / 53

 

Comments
ErikEckles:

The Alaskan Republican Senate primary was the first piece of good news for Democrats in a long, long time. More than half of Alaskans don't know McAdams yet, and he's only down by 8.

This race will tighten considerably. With Miller being such a fringe candidate with a horrible favorability spread, in a better year this race would be Leans Dem, but because of the bad political environment and the influence of the Queen Grizly herself, the best Democrats can hope for is a squeaker.

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Dave:

So glad to be rid of Murkowski.

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Farleftandproud:

For Alaska these aren't bad numbers. I know the GOP has like a 23 point advantage of pure Republicans vs pure Democrats. Murkowski would be risking it if she ran as a third party, and doubt she will, because she is not Libertarian. I personally haven't agreed with her on much, but as far as conservatives go, she comes across fairly well to me. She seems respectful and low keyed, but in this climate the GOP wants rabble-rousers like Palin, Angle, Dick Armey, and Rand Paul because they know how to stir the brew.

Begich is probably having a rough time at the moment just being a Democrat in Alaska, but he still has time to prove himself, and by 2014 he may have a shot at getting re-elected, and could become like a Kent Conrad or Byron Dorgan who served 3 terms in strongly Republican states.

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Farleftandproud:

My ol friend Pat Leahy has a challenger too named Freulich who is a surgeon in VT. He is running as a third party, populist after losing in the primary to Leahy. The GOP candidate in VT is a logger, with little funds, and I am not worried.

I met our future Governor today, Shumlin the projected winner. I am sure before the end of this week Rasmussen is going to make you all believe the GOP has conquerred the country, and will have him trail Brian Dubie by 20 points.

VT could go the way of MN this year. Pawlenty was a more moderate governor, but Emmer is very extreme. I am finding out that Brian Dubie is a close friend of out of state interests and had a meeting last month with George and Laura and an unknown texas oil billionaire, in upstate NY. I know that they would never enter the state of VT because there is a warrant out for Bush and Cheney's arrest still in Brattleboro.

I am expecting this election night to be one where I'll play my guitar all night and not watch the news for 4 months, but I predict there will be at least 2 or 3 things to celebrate around the country for the Democrats.

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tjampel:

AK had a several Senators like Begich and Gravel.

In all 4 of AK's 7 Senators have been Dems and half of its reps.

AK has trended Republican but it's a very different kind of demographic from say, MS. They electorate responds to tough and pragmatic leaders.

Those who don't know about McAdams, who were hoping to replace him with a higher profile Dem are idiots. McAdams may lose but his story some ways to Palin's. He's 100% AK born and bred (unlike Palin here who's from ID), has worked in the commercial fishing industry as a deck hand for 3 years, and is a self-made man. He's been the mayor of a town with a population a bit higher than that of Wassila when Palin was mayor there.

Miller, on the other hand wasn't born in AK, and went to an Ivy League school and has spent considerable time outside of the state.

I don't know enough about McAdams yet in terms of his record as Mayor of Sitka. I do know that he has the right look and profile to be perceived positively by the majority of Alaskans to get to know him; and I do believe that having deep roots and a compelling personal story will be more beneficial in this anti-incumbent year than being an influential politician. Ask Bob Bennett and Lisa Murkowski about that.

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Bob in SJ:

Tea Party puts another Senate Seat in play. Wonder how Murkowski's going to play this if the absentee's don't go her way.

Miller's unfavorables are quite toxic.

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melvin:

Did Murkowski bring Alaska more money then any Senator in Congress? in this is how Alaska returns the favor...The racist teaparty is taking over the GOP...Is this like the 3rd good Republican who lost in the primary,because the right-wingers only wants racist to go to Washington?

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Fred:

Melvin playing the racist card again.........SHOCKER!

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StatyPolly:

I hope it's not Miller who ends up running as third party. Who knows what's in those absentees' ballots. Murkowski had a huge lead when those where mailed out to them.

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Mogando669:

melvin is the liberal version of Karl Rove's electorate strategy. from reading his posts, it's all about herding the mindless sheep (aka "minority voters" and unions) and see how many extra gullible whites he needs just to make 50+1, and never about centrists and governance.

But he keeps forgetting one thing - people got fooled by the great notion of 1st black president, but they won't be fooled twice. obama got everyone's hopes up, got himself elected, but in the process, screwed over all future black politicians. people are having buyer's remorse, and won't make the same purchase ever again. he's the first one, and just might be the last one for the next 50 years.

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Field Marshal:

Is this like the 3rd good Republican who lost in the primary,because the right-wingers only wants racist to go to Washington?

Yes, we want the racist to go to Washington.

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nick283:

Melvin, are you counting Marco Rubio as a racist? Just wanted to check which primaries you were talking about.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

I don't think that the Libertarians will let him run on their line after he likened then to prostitues.

All of this ballot maddness is delicious for us Democrats.

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StatyPolly:

Bob, I didn't say "libertarian". I said third party.

As far as delicious Dem madness goes, enjoy while you can. Got good two months and three days of all that lip-smacking gooey goodness. Things are getting worse by the day, it seems. Ras just released a poll showing that WV Senate seat may be getting into play now.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/west_virginia/election_2010_west_virginia_senate_special_election

House was lost many months ago, and Senate is looking better and better by the day.

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JMSTiger:

@ Bob in SJ

It won't seem so "delicious" when Miller wins in November, along with Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ken Buck. The only one of the Tea Party bunch that looks shaky is Angle and that is because she is certifiable.

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JMSTiger:

@ StatyPolly

I suppose if the wave is big enough, Manchin could lose, but I have a hard time believing that will happen.

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StatyPolly:

JMST,

I don't expect Manchin to lose either, at this point. It's just a single Ras poll, afterall. Let's see more polling, as campaigns go along.

I do think seats like WI, WA and CT may be "lean GOP" pretty soon though.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

Besides the Libertarians, Dems and Reps, no one else has a ballot line for Senate in AK. He'd have to do it as a write-in.

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Bob in SJ:

@ JMST,

I'll take the little rays of sunshine where I can get them. It would be funny to see the Republicans and Tea Partiers wrent asunder over Alaska.

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StatyPolly:

I know that, Bob.

Guess Dems celebrate potential "moderate" Repubs wins as their own these days. I am glad you guys are such "glass half full" optimists:-)

I do think some of these "mod" GOPers will be watching how they vote a little more closely in the future.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

Then you agree that Miller can't run as a third party candidate. That's the point I was trying to make.

I want Miller to win the primary. If he wins the general, then we get all kinds of crazy in the Senate, which, considering that bodies track record, would not be a bad thing.

Also, a Miller win would necessitate NRSC cash, diverted from closer races.

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JMSTiger:

@ Bob in SJ

If these Tea Party types do win most of their races in the fall, you are correct, the U.S. Senate will be wild. Can you imagine a 50-50 or 51-49 Senate with people like Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Sharon Angle, Joe Miller and Ken Buck working along side Bernie Sanders, Al Franken, Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin? Constant entertainment.

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Anthony Gonzalez:

Im not sure why Miller is seen as such an out-of-mainstream Alaskan. I thought Alaska was more plum libertarian like Miller rather than Lisa Murkowski red. Regardless, i think this election will probably narrow a lot more as the DCCC is desperate for cheaper senate races to compete in rather than California, Illinois, Pennsylvania & Ohio. To tell the truth, i kind of wanted McAdams to leave in favor of Tony Knowles but these numbers are aesthetically pleasing to my eyes. He might as well stay. Maybe hell upset the upseter. As for now: Likely Republican.

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Farleftandproud:

Nothing wrong with playing the race card against the GOP, because even though many White people support the conservative attitudes, I think among the Tea party conservatives, most of them are racist, not just against non whites but among many whites too. They think they can brainwash a certain percentage of white Americans, while the others catch on to them and will be waging war against them as long as they exist.

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