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AK: 50% Miller, 44% McAdams (Rasmussen 8/31)

Topics: Alaska , poll

Rasmussen
8/31/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Alaska

2010 Senate
50% Miller (R), 44% McAdams (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Joe Miller: 50 / 44
Scott McAdams: 43 / 36

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 54
Gov. Parnell: 69 / 40

 

Comments
StatyPolly:

Oh come on! More Rasmussen lies!

Grizzly McAdams is fatter than Christie. He'll never fly.

http://www.themudflats.net/wp-content/uploads/brianscottmcadams-338x500.jpg

That's a live full grown moose he's holding.

And Miller is Ivy-league educated, so obviously he can't lose.

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jmartin4s:

I actually think that the PPP and Ras polls showing +7 and +6 respectively are quiet off. Alaska republicans always outperform their polls and right now the Murkowski republicans are angry. If Miller had a chance of losing, Begich would have bodyslammed Ted Stevens in 2008 by 15% at least but instead he barely won and Stevens was a convicted fellon. It would not surprise me if Miller got over 60%

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IdahoMulato:

I'm very surprised McAdams is that close.

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IdahoMulato:

I believe Miller with an ivy league law degree is going to win with about 80% of the vote. The polls cannot be correct.

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AlanSnipes:

Not bad for McAdams. If the Democrats can make a small comeback in the polls, he could win this one.
We will see.

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Bob in SJ:

Will Murkowski endorse... McAdams?

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Anthony Gonzalez:

When Kasich is 10 points in the lead, then the Republicans respond, "HAHAH Finally the Dems and Obambi will be pulverized for destroying this nation!!!!!!!!!". When Miller is underperforming in the polls, then obviously the polls is wrong, no? And you call the Dem's in denial. Get real. This is going to close!

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jmartin4s:

Murkowski will probably only endorse Miller if the republican establishment agrees to back her in the 2014 primary for the right to take on incumbent senator Mark Begich.

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Dave:

This will be close, closer than with Murkowski certainly. Bottom line though: Miller will win. Another Jim Demint style conservative in the Senate. Wonderful.

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ErikEckles:

Murkowski will eventually give a tepid endorsement of Miller. This is politics, after all.

My prediction is that this could be a pick up opportunity for Democrats, but they will squander their window for success because national organizations (DSCC and DNC) won't invest the necessary money quickly enough to define the race.

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Cederico:

I really don't see Murkowski endorsing the man who called her a derogatory name. The DEMS are in full courting mode...Sen. Begich has praised her as has Scott McAdams. Even if she doesn't endorse McAdams he is still trying to get her supporters.

The DSCC would be very wise to spend the neccessary 1 million that Begich is begging them to provide. Miller is just too extreme and there is lots of attacks that can be made one him (Social Security, Medicare, Federal Funds, etc.) This is a seat they could win on the cheap as opposed to winning Ohio where DEM Lee Fisher is facing an 8 million dollar fundraising gap versus GOPer Rob Portman.

DEMS have been very competitive in AK recently with Begich winning in 2008 and Ethan Berkowitz almost toppling Rep. Don Young that same year. The DEMS are tied with the GOP in the state legislature. And for some reason, President Obama is actually relatively well liked in AK with a 46% approval rating in this poll and a 44% approval rating in the AK PPP poll a few days ago.

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Dave:

Cedrico, Miller never called Murkowski a name.

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jmartin4s:

cederico dream on, dems only won alaska in 2008 because Ted stevens was a convicted fellon. If Murkowski is interested in going back to the senate in the future she will probably endorse Miller, if she feels she is done with politics she won't endorse anyone but anyone who thinks this race will be competitive is dreaming.

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shabby:

I think a lot of people that voted for Murkowski are a bit upset right now but will eventually move back towards the Republican canidate. But its also important to note that Miller my be too conservative for the moderate Republican that Murkowski pulled in spades. If McAdams can paint himself as a conservative option, this could turn out to be an interesting race and another opportunity for a Democratic pick up thanks to the actions of the Tea Party. Man, this new age of politics may be bitter and divisive but one can't call it boring. Alaska in play. Who would've thunk it huh?

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Field Marshal:

The people who think McAdams has a shot are completely deluded and suffering from shock. Shock from the complete pounding the Dems are suffering in pre-election polling. The fact that they are excited about a 6 point margin in a highly republican state after a bitter GOP primary fight shows how desperate they are.

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Aaron_in_TX:

This poll shows a relatively close race. Let's just leave it at that.

Rasmussen always polls races right after primaries that aren't particularly accurate. Do 94% of AK voters really have an opinion of Miller? Really?

Rasmussen almost always has the D with more recognition than the R, and it's usually majority unfavorable. McAdams is in pretty good position with Rasmussen having only 79% opinion on him and above water. McAdams may still have some upside potential.

The dems were probably never expecting this one to be in play.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Mcadams as a small town honest mayor has a real shot at this race. I think Alaska is sick of Palin and she has more or less bored a lot of people. Besides I saw a poll that had Mcadams leading among Independents, which isn't a bad think. This could backfire on the GOP, and at best they will have to spend some serious money in order to win this race.

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Farleftandproud:

And Obama's Approval 46/54 in Alaska? Considering it was 29 in WV, and 42 in Ohio, that for Alaska is quite good!

Can Obama's approval really be higher in Alaska than it was in PA? I would say it is unfortunate for PA voters, but promising for Alaska, since Republicans have a 20 point registration edge of Democrats.

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Dave:

I love how McAdams is an upstanding small town mayor, yet Palin (who I don't really like) held the same type of office, and it made her woefully unqualified.

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Farleftandproud:

I am sure that McAdams has a brain and at least has most of his facts straight. He may not draw as much media attention as Palin, and he may not be as funny, but I may be a little wacky in my ideas, but I like leaders who are sane.

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Farleftandproud:

Miller has not been a resident very long, and has no elected experience. He sort of reminds me of the big shot who tried to win that seat in upstate NY near me, last Nov from the Conservative party who got all the endorsements from Palin and other right wingers, but he lost to a Democrat named Owens who was a life long resident. The Conservative party guy, moved there just so he could pick up that seat. He had hardly even been a resident of that district.

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Chris V.:

Dave:

I love how McAdams is an upstanding small town mayor, yet Palin (who I don't really like) held the same type of office, and it made her woefully unqualified.

Posted on September 1, 2010 7:52 PM

Palin wasn't unqualified to be Governor (at least in Alaska). She wasn't qualified to be Vice President, and neither is McAdams.

I'm also surprised that Obama has a 46% approval rating in Alaska. That's higher than some states that he won in 2008.

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Farleftandproud:

As a "Racer" which someone on this web site referred to me as, the GOP is becoming less and less a all white party. The recent Gallup today said 9 out of 10 Republicans are white.

Alaska's native population I have been told has traditionally been fairly conservative, yet, they are sometimes swing voters. I think Alaska has about 1/3 native population and they are poorer and more likely to be turned off to an extreme conservative like Miller who wants little or no government at all.

To be to the right of Lisa Murkowski would be a bit worrisome if I were in their shoes. I may have second thoughts about this Ivy league elitist who has only lived in Alaska a year or so.

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tjampel:

I think Miller's particularly vulnerable to an Ad campaign pointing out his background (not one of us), his Ivy League education (hasn't worked with his hands, etc.) and his most radical ideas about entitlements.

McAdams isn't so unknown apparently and some Republicans already like him enough to vote for him over Miller. Now are all those folks doing it because they're outraged about Miller's hatchet job on Murkowski? Some definitely are but others may simply see two bad choices and go with the one that seems more authentically Alaskan and has a more compelling personal story as well.

If Murkowskie backs Miller in a full-throated way McAdams has no chance...game over.

If she backs Miller grudgingly, damning him with faint praise and McAdams still holds onto some Republicans in subsequent polling (and he consolidates his Dem base even more) that gives him a ray of hope, if Dems turn out heavily for the general.

If she refuses to endorse at all I'd say McAdams is right in there, especially if Murkowski continues to snipe at Miller. In this case I think the race would stay near MOE and I further think the LV screen used by both Ras and PPP will underestimate Dem voters; they'll be fired up in AK if in no other state by this "once in a millennium" opportunity.

There's no way Murkowski will endorse McAdams; no need to consider that possibility.

I think, in the end Murkowski and Miller will both play ball and make nice, and Miller will win by 10%, but...hope springs eternal.

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Farleftandproud:

After seeing the Mayor of Sitka, I think he may very well have a shot at winning. I mean I'll give him a better chance than I do Melancon, or Conway. I think Alaska may be a conservative leaning state, but it is dependent on the federal government for projects. Sen. Stevens brought more money back to Alaska than many liberal Democrats. This is something that Mcadams can get across.

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tjampel:

Perception is everything. To be considered an absolute nobody and suddenly be right there in the thick of things, even if FM is correct about how things will shake out in the end, is certainly going to be pretty energizing to one of the least energized demographics in modern times (2010 Dems...in this case, those in AK).

If Dems in AK or anywhere else, for that matter, were to become energized about this election Republican gains would only be modest. As things stand now it's a decent sized wave. My original estimate of around 40 seats seems kind of low at the moment...more like 45-50. But, things can change...rapidly.

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Cederico:

JMartins,

I hear that same line that Begich won only because...yadda yadda. True the corruption charges against Stevens helped Begich. But your post proves my point...a DEM can WIN in AK.

DEMS came very close to winning Don Young's house seat in 2008, former DEM Gov. Tony Knowles almost won races for Senate in 2004 (against Murkowski) and for Governor in 2006 (against Palin). DEMS also have a tie in the state Senate and are close to a majority in the state House. DEMS have been recently competitive in the state so it is not delusional to think they have a chance.

Joe Miller is a weak candidate with extreme views. If DEMS don't at least try they are doing themselves a disservice. This is a low cost market and Obama is apparently a bit more popular there than would be expected.

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MikeyA:

LOL, according to the libs on this site having an R next to your name makes you an extremist.

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Cederico:

MikeyA,

Joe Miller is extreme...abolishing Social Security and Medicare is not mainstream. Sorry. All his talk of "transferring power" back to states...what the heck? And his stand on reducing federal dollars for AK is definitely not mainstream in AK.

This race has real potential. Miller is down only 6 pts and that is before he is even well known in this very small population state. He has potential to grow especially with the divisions in the GOP party.

I read today that the DSCC is currently polling the state to discern whether they should invest money here. Miller is definitely the frontrunner in the race but this race is not over by a longshot.

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