Pollster.com

Who is doing "careful district by district" House forecast?

And who here boasted about VA's delegation's Dem majority? Honest, I forget.

How about this one?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c99d02f1-c85b-48f7-b4ea-b11209a4dc71

VA-5 incumbent Dem trailing by what? meager 26.

I am gonna go ahead and brand this one a bellwether. Who's gonna stop me?

Welcome to the Alaska governor's race poll. Virginia unfortunately is not here.

Thanks!

Ah-ooch.

That hurt.

VA-5 SUSA poll, August 2008. Perriello trails by 34:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1997ee6b-a22d-4cee-b505-c879d51f9bc4

So SUSA ended up being off by nearly 35 points. Well within its margin of error, I guess.

Good find, Paleo.

SUSA SUCKSA

But.. I am sure they learned from their mistakes..

For the first time, I may actually say Rasmussen has polled ALaska incorrectly in favor of the Democrats. Rasmussen has Parnell leading by 10, but they can't be completely wrong that Alaska has been moving a little bit into a centrist direction.

INdependents in both polls for senate and governor would vote for the Democrat. I am pleased that 95 percent of Democrats also are voting Democratic. You don't find that kind of loyalty in the South, or in Ohio or PA.

Alaska in many ways is like Montana. It is a heavily Repubublican state with a lot of progressives and moderates too. That has been a trend throughout much of the West in recent years.

If Obama can come out as the good guy by 2012, which I think he will, he probably won't carry SD, Missouri or MOntana, but if Kent Conrad, John Tester, and Mccaskill can stay in the middle, and connect to the average working families, these seats can remain Democratic for awhile.

The state and house district polling is difficult. Rasmussen often screws it up too, even though national results are pretty good.