Hays Research (D)
11/2/08; 400 Adults, 5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 48, Obama 45 (8/9: Obama 45, McCain 40)
Sen: Begich (D) 49, Stevens (R-i) 42
At-Large: Berkowitz (D) 49, Young (R-i) 43
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:14 PM
holy cow, batman!
well, color me blue!
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:15 PM
Camp Clinton in little rock seems to be making an impact in the final days. Classy move.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:16 PM
Whoaaa? This one came out of nowhere, dontcha know?
No freakin way. Let's not carried away here folks!
palin cant even confidently deliver her home state!
what a hoe!
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:17 PM
Oh if Obama wins Alaska and/or Arizona that would be so so very sweet. x-mas would definitely come early. I think I'd rather have Obama win Alaska...oh the look on Palin's face! I would save that on my dvr for eternity.
oh, wait. only 400 ppl sample. sorry. next
If you could quantify collective embarrassment, it might look a little something like this...
blue seems to be sweeping toward the gulf from minny, wisconsin, iowa, illinois, missouri on south
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:18 PM
haha. alaska. not arkansas.
LOL, would be nice but serious outlier.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:19 PM
This is AK not AR :) nothing to do with Clinton
Remember 400 is more than 1/1000 of the WHOLE electorate of Alaska.
It is like polling 8000 people in FL :)
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:20 PM
Crap poll. 400 respondents is bad enough, but 400 _adults_, not even registered voters. Yeah.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:21 PM
Oh that explains it, arkansas is AR, are there even 400 people in alaska?
Oh please... R2K showed this race at M+19 a mere three days ago.
Small sample, but we now have multiple polls with Begich holding a strong lead for the Senate and Berkowitz leading for the House seat. I don't think Obama will win Alaska, but there ain't no McCain surge goin' on, folks. Not when the R ticket is in the danger zone in both Arizona and Alaska.
I just dont beleive this poll or the fox-rassmussen state polls,Obama have got a nice lead nationally but its not reflecting in the state polls,so what is going on,is the media trying to keep this race close,so that alot of viewers could tune in tommorrow.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:22 PM
Am I skeptical? You betcha. Am I happy to see it? You betcha. Kos says he hears some internal polls are showing similar trend. Anything in there that Fox can spin, like demographics slant in favor of moose, wolves, and bears?
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:23 PM
Obama +4.5 (+2.4 from yesterday)
And they will release their final poll tonight by midnight.
By going to 4.5 it gives them the ability to add another 2 to 2.5 tonight to Obama's lead to come into compliance with others.
I doubt it's this close in Alaksa, but I could also see how the Stevens conviction might lead many Alaskan Republicans to stay home on election day.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:24 PM
I can't wait to see if Palin can get re-elected!:) ROFL
This is Alaska not Arkansas
In regards to sample size. Guys we have state polls with 600 sample and population of the state at 5 million. Why is 400 so small with a population of a state under a million?:) Just curious not that I believe this poll.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:25 PM
Stevens effect? You betcha!
Biggest outlier of the day by a good margin, with SUSA's Obama+3 in Minnesota coming in second.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:26 PM
This looks as flawed as the survey USA poll out of Minnesota today. I don't believe it.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:28 PM
I don't know what state polls you are looking at ... because I see them trending like the national ones ... so does Charles Franklin on this same site: /blogs/national_forces_in_state_polls.html
Every Democrat commenting on this site that is "scared" "edgy" "nervous" - BREATHE! I'm beginning to believe that Democrats don't know they can win ... Guys - BELIEVE ... VOTE AND BELIEVE ... REMIND YOUR FAMILY/FRIENDS TO VOTE AND BELIEVE.
I would be shocked if it were this close in Alaska. I think it's a reaction to Stevens conviction.
However, there was talk of Obama carrying Alaska before McCain picked Palin, and with Palin being a drag on the ticket, maybe that's finally reached Alaska.
If Obama were to somehow win Arizona and Alaksa in an upset it would be quite an evening.
Looks like the moose demographic is getting back at Palin.
Its within the MOE statistical tie,
Back to more serious business.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:29 PM
I'm all for cherry picking state polls when it's this embarrassing to the Drilla from Wasilla.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:30 PM
Fun for a quick laugh.. but actually.. the reality is telling too. Immediately after the Palin nomination, most AK polls jumped to + Mcain by 30, 35 points. Now it's down to like 15 or 20. She's lost a ton of support even in her home state.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:31 PM
Alaskans are realizing that they've been pranked by Sarah the Impaler. Her political career is an obvious joke, and they're too embarrassed to talk about it yet. She's a female pitbull to nowhere. Note that I'm not using the b-word, though she clearly implied it.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:32 PM
Holy crap! I did NOT expect to see that! As probably the only Alaskan on pollster I have to say that although this is probably an outlier it's not 100% past believable. I am seeing more and more negative coverage of Palin and people being upset with her so it's likely to have a negative affect, although not enough to out-do the boost McCain got when he put her on the ticket. My vote my count for once!!!
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:33 PM
From a RAS Member on swing state polls today:
Non White Voters (Mostly Black)
Non White Voters (Mostly Black)
"Other" (Mostly Black)
Things that make you go hmmmm (Same as PA last week).
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:34 PM
Folks. Sample size affects MOE and confidence levels. It doesn't really matter too much how large the population is (unless it's really, really fragmented along racial, ethnic and religious lines) as long as you have a random sample that properly reflects the population as a whole.
So this pollster had Obama in the lead before the Palin nomination? Maybe Alaskans are bluer than they seem.
Maybe they read polls in the dark and don't want to be in the dark for the next eight years.
OK, OK, I love this as much as everybody else, but come on now :-)
Also - nice to see TIPP doubling up in a day. Guess they don't want to be the least accurate pollster of 2008.
Here are the 4 polls that came out after Primaries were over and before McCain announced Palin:
07/30 - 07/30
07/17 - 07/17
07/14 - 07/16
06/16 - 06/16
Now here are the last 2 polls done:
10/28 - 10/30
10/28 - 10/28
Now - I'm not saying I believe this poll today - however I would state that We're probably looking back at a 10-15% race
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:39 PM
Obama is Surging!......... I think McCain is in for a long election night! OBama nationally is up 8%. ANd his GOTV IS second to none! Obama will win NC+6 and carry VA+. HE will overperform in Southern states! HEllo MO!...
For those of you dissing this poll, I have a question. Why are the Senate and House race numbers (taken at the same time) INLINE with other polls?
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:41 PM
I give this Alaska poll as much credence as I give the Minnesota poll by SUSA yesterday. Which is zero.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:44 PM
As they say in Rex Sox Nation: BELIEVE!!!!
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:47 PM
Speaking of states that have up to this point been thought of as impossible for Obama . . . Anyone have any thoughts on the Obama's chances in AZ and LA? No one has really talked for while about that LA poll by a newspaper (I think) about a week ago that had McCain only by 2. Trying to put together my "final picks."
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:48 PM
One thing to keep in mind about Alaska. The likelihood that the election is called before polls close in the state is going to be very high. The earliest polls will be closing at 2:00 PM in Alaska.
If the election becomes a foregone conclusion before most Alaskans leave work for the day I think you can expect a very low turnout. As far as who that benefits, I have no idea.
Does anyone know if Alaska has early voting?
The previous AK Hays poll was an outlier as well (it was the only poll showing Obama ahead of McCain).
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:49 PM
Oh come on maybe in 2012, but Obama hasnt proven himself yet in the white house to be landsliding the United states AND winning the states of his Opponents, this is too much for me
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:53 PM
Probably a major outlier, but a good smile nevertheless.
"Sarah may see Russia from her house, but I can see the end of her career from my couch, dontcha know!!"
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:55 PM
I'm not 100% but I do believe so. I know several people who have already "voted" but I'm not sure if that was absentee.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:58 PM
This is definitely an outlier. I have no doubt about it.
Posted on November 3, 2008 3:59 PM
This poll has a small sample size and only among 400 adults, not even RVs. Wouldn't take too much from it
Posted on November 3, 2008 4:04 PM
Apparently, somebody dug up the liberal antidote to TIPP! Great.
Posted on November 3, 2008 4:07 PM
Obama is not winning AZ or AK. Geez. Isn't there enough for us Democrats to celebrate without falling into absoulute absurdity?
Posted on November 3, 2008 4:10 PM
I know it may not happen but WOW...I like the closeness of lol lol
Posted on November 3, 2008 4:16 PM
The MOE (4.9) looks pretty big in terms of the size of the electorate in Alaska(approximatelly 300,000 in 2004).
Creating my own electoral map on RCP in July 27th (O 356-M 182) I had painted Alaska light blue; that was just before the conventions. Quite surprisingly, it seems not much has changed in the race by then! The post-convention bounce the GOP ticket enjoyed until recently has been steadily diminished like in every other swing state poll.
Even in the case Alaska remains in the Republican column this year, the GOP will suffer a major blow out losing a senate seat and only narrowly winning the state's 3 electoral votes.
Not to mention that it is a personal embarrassment for McCain and Palin not to win their home-states decisively.
Trying to be modestly optimistic, it seems fair right now to assume that Obama will win big. With Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia (alphabetical order) still in play and with such an advanced national lead (average +7) in decent pollsters' surveys, one can call the election for the Democrat with at least 338 EVs.
Go to vote, people. For Obama of course!
Posted on November 3, 2008 4:35 PM
"I just dont beleive this poll or the fox-rassmussen state polls,Obama have got a nice lead nationally but its not reflecting in the state polls,so what is going on"
Use your brain.
How many polls have you seen from Utah? Idaho? Oklahoma? Nebraska? Kansas? Arkansas? Texas?
All red states that affect the national polls.
The state polls you DO see are the battleground states. Why are they called battleground states?
Think about it.
Because the margin of difference between the candidates is close (hint - what does 'battleground imply?) and as a result they get polled a lot.
What about the non-battleground blue states - see many polls from them?
How many times has DC been polled? Maryland? New York? Massachusetts? California? There could be a five per cent shift in number of voters to McCain, and no one would notice because:
1. It won't make a difference in who wins the state;
2. No polls are taken, so no one knows of any shift.
Yet all those states (and more) also figure in the national polls.
Now stop being a concern troll if you support Obama. If you are supporting McLameBrain, be man enough to speak up as such, but in an intelligent manner.
Posted on November 3, 2008 4:47 PM
You're worse than Sunderland, You're worse than Sunderland, You're worse than Sunderland...
Posted on November 3, 2008 5:09 PM
Hays is a crazy outlier according to the poll list; it's the only AK survey on the list that polls "adults" instead of likely voters, and their last poll had Obama up by 5 pts (!). So, unless there is a Stevens + surrender effect (how many hours behind the eastern time zone is AK?), AK stays red...
Posted on November 3, 2008 5:11 PM
Posted on November 3, 2008 7:03 PM
do tv news airwaves move slower in cold air or something? has alaska not heard yet that Stevens is a felon?
Posted on November 3, 2008 8:02 PM
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