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AK: McCain 54, Obama 35 (IvanMoore-8/30-9/2)

Topics: PHome

Ivan Moore Research
8/30 - 9/2/08; 500 LV, 4.4%
Mode: IVR
(story)

Alaska
McCain 54, Obama 35

Sen:
Begich (D) 49, Stevens (R-i) 46, Bird (i) 2, Haase (L) 0
(August: Begich 56, Stevens 39, Bird 2, Haase 0)

At-Large:
Berkowitz (D) 54, Young (R-i) 37, Wright (i) 3
(August: Berkowitz 51, Young 41, Wright 4)

Parnell (R) 49, Berkowitz (D) 38, Wright (i) 4
(August: Parnell 46, Berkowitz 42, Wright 3)

 

Comments
sherman:

Looks like Stevens is getting a nice boost. Not sure why Palin would help Stevens in that manner, but there you go.

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KipTin:

Maybe the Alaska Dems were too busy slamming Palin to realize that they were hurting their Senatorial candidate in doing so.

Parnell (also a reformer) is Palin's Lieutenant Governor and is awaiting the final count for the GOP primary. At this time, incumbent Congressman Don Young is up 151 votes with 14,900 absentee and more than 12,000 questioned ballots to be counted. Berkowitiz is the chosen Democratic candidate.

It will be bad news for GOP if Young wins primary, since he does not have a chance in the general with his low approval rating, under investigation for corruption.

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sfcpoll:

I believe this survey was done with live telephone interviewers, not IVR- please correct this

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Gary Kilbride:

I mentioned that the day Palin was named, the potential impact on the Alaska senate race. A Begich win is going to require tons of ballot splitting, much more than previously.

One benefit for Begich: Alaska does not have straight ticket voting. At least I don't think so. I have that notation in my Alaska workbook from 2004.

Very often I've been convinced the Republican led Alaska statewide races, even when polls insisted otherwise. In this case I'm not sure. My instinct is Begich does lead but narrowly. Begich is like Tony Knowles, using a springboard as Anchorage mayor to gain footing in a statewide race. That's virtually the only logical path for a Democrat statewide in Alaska, unusual strength in Anchorage, where the numbers are.

But Knowles always fell short of his poll numbers and is 2 for 5 in major statewide races, losing for governor in '90 and '06 and senate in '04, while winning the gov races in '94 and '98.

The Alaska senate race is still very much in play. It's nonsense Stevens ever trailed by double digits, not in a state with 44% conservatives, and with a 50% approval rating for Stevens despite the legal problems.

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saywhat90:

is alaska stil the most corrupt state in america?

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