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All Voters or Just Hispanics?

Topics: Immigration

Mickey Kaus sees a flaw in a new analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center.

The Pew Hispanic Center reports that between July 2006 and October 2007 Hispanic voters went from 49/28 Dem-Republican to 57/23--a net Democratic gain of 13 points.

As Kaus points out, the analysis appears to attribute the shift to Republican resistance to immigration reform. He continues:

The problem, of course, is that the Pew Center doesn't tell us how many points the Democrats gained among non-Hispanic voters, or all voters generally. These were not good months for the GOP.

That particular analysis may not include the party identification numbers for all Americans, but the Pew Research Center regularly includes those results in its monthly survey releases. A late October release shows that leaned party identification (identifiers plus leaners) among all adults went from 47%-40% Democrat/Republican in July 2006 to 54%-36% in October 2007 -- a net Democratic gain of 11 points.

Back to you Mickey.

 

Comments

Not so fast!

It's worth considering that (1) Hispanics are included in that second figure, so their 13% swing is helping to swell the 11% swing. A further racial breakdown would certainly be interesting. Was the swing larger among Blacks and Asians as well? Not likely for Blacks, they don't have that far to swing... which brings me to (2) it's significantly harder to get a 13-point swing from a group that already favors you 49/28 than it is to get an 11-point swing from a group that favors you 47/40.

In short, the Histpanic swing looks to me like it almost certainly is real as a distinct phenomena, even if it's not overwhelmingly disproportional.

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