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Another Update on PA by Race, Gender and Education

Topics: 2008 , ARG , Barack Obama , Hillary Clinton , Quinnipiac , Trend lines

Another Pennsylvania survey from Quinnipiac University presents another opportunity to check the results broken out by race, gender and education. The subgroup numbers, like the overall results, look mostly unchanged since last week, although Obama's favorable rating dropped slightly among white men without a college degree.

As noted in previous reviews, Quinnipiac enables this analysis by (a) asking a demographic item on education, (b) interviewing very large sample sizes, including the largest yet (n=2,103 likely Democratic primary voters) this week and (c) sharing the additional tabulations with all of us. Thanks again to Quinnipiac's Doug Schwartz for the additional data.

Keep in mind that the latest survey was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday (April 9-13) so we can assume that a significant portion of the interviews were completed before news broke Friday afternoon about Barack Obama's so-called "bitter" remarks. The usual cautions are also in order about this survey being a snapshot in time with a full week to go before voting. However, note that the field period of the ARG survey released yesterday (Friday to Sunday) overlapped entirely with that of the new Quinnipiac poll. A trend in the vote preference as large as indicated by the ARG survey should have been evident in the Quinnipiac data, but Quinnipiac tells us that they see "no noticeable difference" comparing the interviews from Saturday and Sunday to those completed earlier in the week.

On to the crosstabs. The vote preference results that appear in the following show few meaningful differences within subgroups. Obama's support among African Americans increased significantly (from 75% to 86%), while he showed a small drop among college educated white women (from 46% to 41%) that was not quite large enough to attain statistical significance (college educated white women were 13% of the sample, or roughly 275 interviews this week and roughly 200 last week).

(Click on the table to pop-up a slightly larger version).

Hillary Clinton's favorable rating looks essentially unchanged since last week, with no subgroup showing a change in any category of more than 2-3 percentage points.

Finally, Barack Obama's favorable rating shows no statistically meaningful difference overall and among most subgroups, although the survey does show a significant nine-point drop (from 60% to 51%) in his favorable rating among white men with no college degree. Notice that this change brings Obama's current rating among non-college men (51% favorable, 27% unfavorable) back to more or less where it was two weeks ago (53% favorable, 29% unfavorable).

 

Comments
lsmakc:

thank you, mark. from the ivory tower to a pollster's qwerty board!

white males, older ones at that in stable relationships are the key factor, i would suggest. they hold out longer, and are in lock step with women who tend to be very strong minded especially in rural areas. cliches can be tracked, that's what polls are.

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the_real_truth:

looks like clinton leads in the "uneducated" category - you know, the ones that don't know about all her "misstatements"....

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