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AP-Gfk: CO, FL, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA (10/22-26)

Topics: PHome

AP-Gfk
10/22-26/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado 626 LV, 3.9%
Obama 50, McCain 41

Florida 600 LV, 4%
Obama 45, McCain 43

Nevada 628 LV, 3.9%
Obama 52, McCain 40

New Hampshire 600 LV, 4%
Obama 55, McCain 37

North Carolina 601 LV, 4%
Obama 48, McCain 46

Ohio 607 LV, 4%
Obama 48, McCain 41

Pennsylvania 607 LV, 4%
Obama 52, McCain 40

Virginia 601 LV, 4%
Obama 49, McCain 42

 

Comments
Trosen:

Game. Set. Match. Good night.

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Trosen:

Game. Set. Match. Good night.

Let's even play pretend and slice off half these margins for Obama, and give NC and FL to McCain. Hell, let's even throw in Ohio. He's TOAST.

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BOOMFAIL:

There definitely is a surge going on.

TOWARDS OBAMA!

State polls are what matter.

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BOOMFAIL:

STILL WAITING!!!!

To all the wingnuts screaming today: Prove your confidence in a McCain win. Show us your purchase from Intrade today. You'll be swimming in money since you are so sure he will win. Proof is in the pudding, my friends. Scan your purchase on intrade and post it on a free image host site. Cross out any personal information, (have to tell the less educated that) but make sure it proves a McCain purchase from today. Easy money, right???


Just saying something doesn't make it true. Show us your confidence instead of just SPIN.

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mandalorianarmy:

For the football analogy,

McCain may be gaining yards but it looks like Obama is scoring the most points.

Hmm which one matters?

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Trosen:

Someone please tell me the GOP isn't this stupid. From Politico:

"SCOOP – THE NEW NEW RIGHT -- REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO STEER RIGHT AFTER DRUBBING – CONSERVATIVES PLAN SECRET POST-ELECTION STRATEGY SESSION IN THE VIRGINIA COUNTRYSIDE – Politico’s Jonathan Martin: “Two days after next week's election, top conservatives will gather at the Virginia weekend home of one of the movement's most prominent members to begin a conversation about their role in the GOP and how best to revive a party that may be out of power at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue next year. The meeting will include a ‘who's who of conservative leaders -- economic, national security and social,’ said one attendee … One of the topics of discussion will be how to fashion a ‘national grassroots political and policy coalition similar to the out Reagan years,’ said the attendee, a reference to the development of the so-called New Right apparatus following Jimmy Carter's 1976 victory and Reagan's election four years later. …

“Sarah Palin will be a central part of discussion. If the Arizona senator wins, the discussion will feature much talk of, ‘How do we work with this administration?’ said the attendee, an acknowledgment that conservatives won't always have a reliable ally in the Oval Office. Under this scenario, Palin would be seen as their conduit to power. ‘She would be the conservative in the White House,’ is how the source put it. Should McCain lose next Tuesday, the conversation will include who to groom as the next generation of conservative leaders – a list that will feature Palin at or near the top. …"

Ok.. the GOP's "plan" to get back in the game is to turn Sarah Palin into a neo-Ronald Reagan. God help the GOP.

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Thatcher:

NV went light blue this morning on RCP!

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cmbat:

I'll say what have been saying for months now. Final results will look like:

Obama 51.6%
McBush 47.3%
Other 1.1%

Electoral Vote, Obama gets 306-311 area

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political_junki:

STILL WAITING:
How about "Associated Press/GfK" numbers today BOOM?
Wasnt it national +1 last week? I wonder why states have not followed?
Last week you were loving this pollster???
Any thoughts BOOM?

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JCK:

This is horrible, horrible news for McCain.

He may closing nationally, but not where it matters.

Let's be generous and give McCain 3 net points in each of these polls, assuming the undecideds break heavily in his favor. He still loses, VA, CO, NV, NH, OH, and PA.

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Atomique:

Bush needs all these swing states except NH if he is going to win his reelection, assuming PA goes to Obama, which it almost certainly will.

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Trosen:

Highly doubtful you will see the trolls contribute to this thread.

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StandardDeviation:

These polls were all taken when Obama was +8 in the national polls...while I would love to believe them, let's not count our chickens before they hatch.

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RaleighNC:

Once again, state polls always lag the national polls. Next week will be the poll of all polls. Don't get your inauguration dresses yet, Obamabots.

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Chester:

It will be Obama 306 EV's; I don't think he'll win florida, nevada, missouri, or north carolina. This will tighten, but he'll take Ohio and Virginia.

Finals... Obama 49%, Mac 46%. I don't think Obama will break 50%.

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MDB1974:

These polls mean Obama is where he wants to be at this point, not that he has won. Push, this is still losable. Never underestimate the depths of the right.

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wakeup:

Let us see how Khalidi plays in FL.

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jamesugw:

Question -
Does anyone know when opinion polling ceases before the election? Is it 24 hours before? Or would we have polling coming out next Monday, for instance?

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TaxmanTC:

@JCK - you nailed it

The polls are showing signs of tightening nationally, but I think it is coming from states that are already heavily for Mccain like Alaska, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas etc. The battleground state polls are either staying the same or increasing for Obama because of the tremendous ad and ground-game advantages.

I can certainly see a scenario where Obama beats McCain by only 2-3% nationally, but wins by 150 electoral vote margin.

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Babbit:

When all is said and done, and Obama is in the White House, we will all look back and realize that the tough race was not the one between Obama and McCain, but instead it was the primary battle between Obama and Hillary. McCain hasn't really put up much of a fight. He hasn't offered anything that anyone really wants. The general election has been a cake walk for Obama compared to the mega-battle he fought with Hillary.

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jamesugw:

wakeup:
Let us see how Khalidi plays in FL.

Do you mean the fact that McCain was the head of a group that funded the Palestinian academic to the tune of 500K? Yes, let's see...

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Thatcher:

Of the 13 states ... in the toss-up/leaning category on RCP:

5 toss ups:
Obama leads 4
McCain leads 1

8 leaners:
Obama leads 5
McCain leads 3

McCain would have to win at least 11 of these 13. That means picking up all 4 he leads in (toss ups and leaners) plus all 4 toss ups where Obama leads and then 3 of the 5 where they lean Obama (Ohio, Virginia, Nevada being his best bet)

How does he do this? He can't - he doesn't have the ground power - a good GOTV program can get you 5% max - which only gets you 8 of the 13 ... And he doesn't have a good GOTV program. Whereas Obama has a great GOTV program - and moving 5% toward Obama gives Obama all but 1 or 2 (West Virginia and/or Arizona).

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slegend:

And if they used legit "likely voter" methodologies - add 1.5-2% to each Obama lead

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asquared:

Palin Questions:

-is that Hank Williams Jr. standing behind her at all her events? Is it just me or is he kind of creepy, especially when he starts bobbing his head up and down afetr everything she says.

-What happened to her medical reports, they still haven't released them. I have no doubt she is healthy, but is there something they are hiding here (drugs?, additional pregnancies?, or even the 'A' word in her past?)

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NW Patrick:

Let me remind everyone. Bush won by 1.5% and was pulling average of 1.5% on election day. :)
He won over 280 electoral votes. We're doing well. Bush had state #'s NO WHERE near this!

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Trosen:

Chester.. I'd be willing to go along and say McCain can win all of those except NV. Between where the #s are now, the Latino vote and the GOTV advantage.. NV looks out of reach for McCain. I mean he basically pulled up stakes in NV and CO about a week ago to focus on PA.

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straight talk:

@ McCain Supporters

Show me a state poll that makes you feel good right now? You may be seeing tightening nationally! But the key battlegrounds of the electorate are not seeing it! The polls started tightening 2 wks ago, but no sign that McCain is closing the electoral gap which is 100+!

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

***************************************************************
SURVEY USA OH POLL UP
***************************************************************
O50 M46

--------------------------------------------------
AA - 84%(BO)
- 12% (JM)

11% of likely voters? Probably a tad higher. BUT IF SYDNEY WINS 12% OF AA SUPPORT IN OH - I WILL PERSONALLY GO TO ATHENS AND LICK EVERY BRICK ON THE OHIO UNIVERSITY CAMPUS.

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wakeup:

James,
No, I mean the Khalidi that spent many a night dining at the Obama's...

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OneAngryDwarf:

wakup said:

Let us see how Khalidi plays in FL.

Yeah lets see. Drudge yanked that story off the front page of his site so fast it made me dizzy. Why you ask?

McCain's pal

Maybe Obama was sitting next to this guy at a dinner, but McCain gave him a ****load of money. You can't say look who that guy is "pallin' around with" when he can point back and say "look who that guy is funding."

In the words of the biggest Republican dork on this site.

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Atomique:

@RaleighNC:

You're absolutely right. Don't stop volunteering and donating, everybody. Obama needs all the help he can get in these last closing days. This election is not over yet, though things are looking good. It's not time to get complacent. It's time to work our butts off and make sure this thing really happens and change really does come to America. We can't afford another four years of the same failed Bush-McCain policies!

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Dana Adini:

early voting in NC with 45% of 2004 tally cast

Dem 54%
Rep 28.6%
Ind. 17.4%

Party turnout to date:

Dem 31.01%
Rep. 23.40%
Ind. 20.45%

if Dems get to 70% turnout, GOP would NEED 100% turnout to equal their number.

In NC there are 2,835,022 reg. Dems and 1,989,188 reg GOP. So far 879,009 dems have already voted.

do the math

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Trosen:

wakeup and NC.. kudos for having the stones to jump in on this polling thread.

As for Khalidi, this is the same song and dance as the Wright thing, the Ayers thing, the Jesse Jackson thing, the Farrakhan thing (from way back when) etc. etc. Hasn't moved the needle, and won't. Hillary Biden, and even Slick Willie are down here a bunch in the next 6 days to keep the old Jews in line. (And us young Jews are very passionately working for Obama, by the way).

Not to mention, if the McCain camp pushes the Khalidi angle, they have a swarm of ads ready to go to turn that sucker right around on him. Wait and see..

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OGLiberal:

Jesus...Khalidi is a highly respected (and sought after) Middle Eastern scholar. The man was born and raised in the good old US of A. He was NOT a spokesperson for the PLO. He does NOT have terrorist ties. He has strong views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, true...and these views are shared by many folks who are not terrorists or terrorist sympathizers or Jew-haters. So what's wrong with that? He has also confirmed that he and Obama disagree on the Palestinian cause, that Obama has never been - to his knowledge - anti-Israel. Obama spoke kind words about a respected academician and former colleague at a dinner honoring his departure from the U of Chicago, where Obama also once taught. That's a crime? That's a problem? That means that Obama hates Israel?

Grasping, flailing....and failing.

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wakeup:

Trosen,
I respectfully disagree. I have been perplexed at the Jewish support for Obama... The Khalidi-Obama relationship might put a dent in that support.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@OGLiberal

Don't forget that McCain gave him almost $500K. Which is worse being seen at dinner with someone or funding their work?

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straight talk:

The McCain Campaign thinks that they can win PENNSYLVANIA! Are you freaken kidding me! Ed Rendell and Obama are playin them for fools! These guys are conceding a lot of Ground to Obama by not contesting Colorado or Virginia! That is 22 Ev. Obama is opening up a huge leads in those states! BIG MISTAKE!

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boomshak:

SurveyUSA Poll gives Obama a 4 point edge in OHIO, but they also give Democrats a 10 mpoint sampling advantage, which we KNOW is bullsh*t.

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mago:

"State polls always lag behind national polls."

Oh come on, cna you possibly believe this? So on 10/27, if Ras calls as part of a national poll, you tell tham McCain, but if they call as part of a state poll, you tell them Obama?

The aggregates lag _in states where recent polls are lacking_. You'd think people reading a site like this would have some minimal numeracy skills.

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wakeup:

OG,
So why has Obama ran from Rashid and Mona?

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carl29:

Florida Jews had already heard about everything, believe me EVERYTHING. One of my Law professors is Jew, she tells me about all the emails against Obama that she gets everyday. If McCain hasn't convinced Jews to not support Obama, I don't think he could do it at this point.

*Of course that Jews have already heard about the palestinian guy and the gaza people buying Obama stuff. And the thing the Hamas guy said. You know what? It seems that they couldn't care less :-)

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OneAngryDwarf:

@wakeup

So which is it? Dinner or 500K to fund his work? Which is worse?

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oicu:

@boomshak:

you keep shouting about this party disparity, and you're consistently wrong. Go and look at the latest Rasmussen numbers, unless you think he's cooking the books too. Dem party advantage has been steadily increasing.

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Dana Adini:

Trosen

I disagree. As an israeli-american who supports Obama, the khalidi thing doesn't mean anything.

1) he is a plo guy and the israeli government negotiates and has normal relations with the plo
2) McCain gave $400,000 to khalidi.
3) just because he was at a dinner with him 5 years has no implications on his mideast policy

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JCK:

wakup:

You expect Obama to PROMOTE Rashid? Do you expect McCain to promote his funding of Rashid??

Maybe you need to wake up.

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NW Patrick:

COLORADO:

RCP Average 10/21 - 10/26 -- -- 51.3 43.0 Obama +8.3

Politico/InAdv 10/26 - 10/26 636 LV 3.8 53 45 Obama +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 50 46 Obama +4
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 626 LV 3.9 50 41 Obama +9
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 10/21 - 10/23 500 LV 4.4 52 40 Obama +12

FLORIDA

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 48.2 44.8 Obama +3.4

LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 639 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 603 LV 4.1 47 47 Tie
Suffolk 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV -- 49 44 Obama +5
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 600 LV 4.0 45 43 Obama +2
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1435 LV 2.6 47 45 Obama +2

NEVADA

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 50.0 42.5 Obama +7.5

Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 700 LV 4.0 50 46 Obama +4
Suffolk 10/26 - 10/26 450 LV 4.6 50 40 Obama +10
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 628 LV 3.9 52 40 Obama +12

OHIO

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 49.3 43.0 Obama +6.3

SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 644 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 607 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1425 LV 2.6 51 42 Obama +9

VIRGINIA

RCP Average 10/19 - 10/26 -- -- 50.7 43.3 Obama +7.4

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 601 LV 4.0 49 42 Obama +7
Roanoke College 10/19 - 10/26 614 LV 4.0 48 39 Obama +9
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11

NEW MEXICO

RCP Average 09/29 - 10/13 -- -- 50.7 42.3 Obama +8.4

Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/13 700 LV 4.0 55 42 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 568 LV 4.2 52 45 Obama +7

PA (Not sure why I include this, only because McCain camp and media now wants to talk about the desperation.)

RCP Average 10/20 - 10/27 -- -- 52.1 41.6 Obama +10.5

Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama +7
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9
Morning Call 10/23 - 10/27 589 LV 3.8 53 41 Obama +12
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1364 LV 2.7 53 41 Obama +12
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 607 LV 4.0 52 40 Obama +12
Franklin & Marshall 10/21 - 10/26 LV 4.2 53 40 Obama +13
Temple Univ. 10/20 - 10/26 761 LV 3.6 50 41 Obama +9

NORTH CAROLINA

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/26 -- -- 48.3 47.0 Obama +1.3

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 48 49 McCain +1
PPP (D) 10/25 - 10/26 1038 LV 2.8 49 48 Obama +1
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 50 46 Obama +4
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 601 LV 4.0 48 46 Obama +2
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/22 - 10/24 800 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie

NEW HAMPSHIRE

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/27 -- -- 52.6 40.0 Obama +12.6

WMUR/UNH 10/25 - 10/27 652 LV 3.8 58 33 Obama +25
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 600 LV 4.0 55 37 Obama +18
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/23 - 10/25 625 LV 4.0 50 39 Obama +11
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 50 46 Obama +4
Marist 10/22 - 10/23 655 LV 4.0 50 45 Obama +5

IOWA

RCP Average 10/19 - 10/24 -- -- 52.2 40.8 Obama +11.4

Marist 10/23 - 10/24 645 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 52 44 Obama +8
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/22 - 10/23 625 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
Quad City-Times/R2000 10/19 - 10/22 600 LV 4.0 54 39 Obama +15
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 586 LV 4.2 52 39 Obama +13

INDIANA

RCP Average 10/19 - 10/26 -- -- 46.0 47.4 Obama +1.4

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 50 44 McCain +6
Research 2000 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Obama +1
Howey-Gauge 10/23 - 10/24 600 LV 4.1 47 45 McCain +2
SurveyUSA 10/21 - 10/22 631 LV 4.0 45 49 Obama +4
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 586 LV 4.2 41 51 Obama +10


A N Y QUESTIONS?


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carl29:

What my professor says is that McCain's stand with regards to Social Security scares the old Jews more than all those Palestinias :-)

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Trosen:

wakeup.. The Khalidi thing is old news. They have been throwing everything at the Jewish voters down here related to Obama since the primaries.(thanks Hillary) Trust me when I tell you, because my name is "Rosen," I have gotten at least 5 different anti-Obama scare flyers including one just Monday. The muslim thing, the Israel thing, the ayers thing, the Jesse Jackson thing have ALL been played to death down here for months. At one point it certainly was having an effect.. but Obama, the Clintons (now) and especially the local Democratic politicans (Wasserman-Shultz, Gelber, Wexler) have done an excellent good job getting the Jewish population on board.

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OGLiberal:

@wakeup

Jewish voters traditionally lean strongly towards the Democratic candidate. They tend to be more liberal. And a large majority of American Jews are not die-hard, neo-con Zionists. They care much more about their own country than Israel. There is nothing in Obama's past and nothing about his currently policies that should give Jewish-American voters any reason to fear him. And those Jewish-Americans who do have strong feelings about Israel have, I'm sure, done their homework on Obama. His associations with Khalidi are old news, including the farewell dinner Drudge is hyping. They would have been well aware of these associations. Despite this, they still support Obama in large numbers.

@OneAngryDwarf

That is true. But my larger point is that neither McCain nor Obama need to be ashamed of or sorry for any associations or relationship they have with Rashid Khalidi. He's just not a bad guy.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@NW Patrick

Yeah I've got a question. What legitimate path does McCain have to 270 barring any voter fraud?

snicker, snicker, snicker...

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decided:

Obama +17 with people that already voted in OH.
SurveyUSA

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NW Patrick:

Boom you are a funny little man. Complaining about Survey USA's OHIO lead of 4. Hmmmm..Fox News / RAS OHIO Obama plus 4. Four other pollsters within a week showing an even larger lead! So every pollster is **BULL****** right?

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Unbiased08:

State polls lag behind national polls? That makes absolutely no sense. What could possibly be an explanation for that theory. I understand over the summer when there were tracking polls every day but only a new state poll of a particular state every 2 weeks or so that state polls would react later, because they came out less frequently. but when we have fresh polls coming from the battleground state everyday, what is your logical/analytical explanation for why state polls would lag behind? I mean, you do realize that national polls are made up of voters who each live in a STATE, right?

Obama is way ahead where it counts. End of story. Plus, if you look at the numbers among those who have already voted, they are staggering. Obama is ahead by 20-40 points in many crucial states, and that lead is not just theoretical, but is an ACTUAL advantage among voters who have already cast their ballot.

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Trosen:

Carl.. FIU or UM?

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carl29:

Wow!!! The McCain campaign is really running around like a chicken without a head :-)

Look,

"McCain's mother to stump in Virginia"


Associated Press - October 29, 2008 10:45 AM ET

ARLINGTON, Va. (AP) - Republican John McCain's mother is coming to Virginia to rally support for her son's presidential bid.

Roberta McCain plans to make 10 stops across the commonwealth between now and Friday. Her visits include Blacksburg, Charlottesville, Fairfax, Fredericksburg, Gainesville, Hanover, Harrisonburg, Richmond, Roanoke and Woodbridge.
----------------------------------------

Poor lady is now campaigning non-stop in the last days of the election because his son didn't care about the state until it was late.

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Trosen:

Carl.. FIU or UM?

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decided:

@ NW Patrick:

everybody, so also boomshak, has a right of self-deception.

so let him keep cherry-picking

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straight talk:

Are there any other national polls besides Gallup coming out today?

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oicu:

One thing many (I suspect most) Jews hate is the "support" of the mad Christian Right, who actively want Armageddon. These nuts are not acting in Israel's best interest, which is to reach a peace with its neighbours.

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Viperlord:

So what's boom****'s favorite poll of the day?

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NW Patrick:

From the Huff Post (Based on REAL #'s)

COLORADO

Early voting is currently at over 75% of 2004 levels with one week to go.

Democrats currently outnumber Republicans in early voting, albeit by a slim margin - 38.6% of all early voters, to 37.9% Republicans

TEXAS

"Across Dallas County and into the outer suburbs, thousands of people continue to stream into polling places, dwarfing early-voting records and raising questions about what the preliminary tallies mean for candidates and political parties."

FLORIDA

In this critical swing state, early voters already make up 27% of total 2004 numbers (in 2004, early voters constituted 36% of total votes).

Dems outnumber Republicans so far, 44.7% to 40%.

GEORGIA

Early voting is already 33% higher than 2004 numbers, and is equivalent to 31% of all votes cast in Georgia in 2004.

Of early voters, 35% are African-American, compared to 25% of the total voting population in 2004.

Also, nearly 56% of early voters are women, another excellent sign for Democrats.

OHIO

"Among those in Ohio who told WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA that they have already voted, Barack Obama leads by 13 points. When the two populations are combined, the data is as here reported: Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical WHIO-TV/SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Obama is down 1 point; McCain is flat."

ILLINOIS

60,000 votes have already been cast in the Tenth Congressional District.

Of those, 58% were cast by registered Democrats, compared to 25% for Republicans.

Obama should win the district and state in a landslide, but these numbers bode especially well for IL-10 Democratic candidate Dan Seals.

IOWA

Registered Democrats have a 20-point advantage in early voting over Republicans in Iowa.

LOUISIANA

Early voting is near double 2004 levels. Of early voters, registered Democrats have a huge edge, 57.9% to 29.4%.

34% of early voters are African-American.

NEVADA

Democrats lead 54.4% to 29.1% among early voters. Early voters constituted 59.4% of all voters in 2004; this year, early voting to this point is equivalent to 44% of all 2004 numbers.

NORTH CAROLINA

The proportion of black voters among all early voters has leveled off - they constitute 28% of all voters now - but still exceeds black registration in the state.

Early voting has far outstripped 2004 levels, and Democrats are turning out disproportionately.

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carl29:

"U" Go Hurricanes!!!!

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

I'm a member of Obahai Sholom in west Nashville, the oldest and biggest congregation in the state. I don't hear any-- ANY-- criticism of Obama for alleged ties to Palestinians. When I drive through the parking lot at the JCC (which has members from all over the city, including many Orthodox Jews who the Republicans have reached out to), I see hardly any McCain stickers. Even the old rich guys I talk to in the steam room, who always vote Republican, aren't voting for McCain because they think Sarah Palin is a nutjob.

Based on one city's Jews, I don't think this story is gonna fly.

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DTM:

Just a tiny point, but if you have followed the misadventures of the Ohio GOP over the last few years, it is absolutely unsurprising the Democrats would have a significant party ID advantage in Ohio (and that is holding aside the national trends).

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M2:

The math remains the same:

Kerry states + IA + NM + CO = Obama victory

And there is zero indication that Obama will do less than that.

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OGLiberal:

@wakeup

Khalidi and wife no longer live in Chicago. I don't think the two were best buds, they were colleagues and fellow Chicagoans. I haven't seen Obama say stuff like, "I didn't know him", "I renounce him", etc. What's he supposed to, go out an profess his love for Prof. Khalidi? He's got nothing to denounce or deny so why does he need to say anything? And, again, Khalidi is not a radical. The neo-con/AEI set, I'm sure, things he's evil incarnate. But he isn't...he just isn't. And if 8 years of madness has taught us anything it's that the neo-con/AEI crew are the crazy radicals, not folks like Khalidi.

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Aside from NH, Obama just needs one of those.

He's got 5 at better than 80% odds apiece. He's got 4 at better than 95% odds. Landslide baby landslide.

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Thatcher:

@straight talk:

ABC
IBD

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Trosen:

carl, I'm an FIU grad, c/o 2001, B.A. International Relations/History. but a die-hard life long Canes fan. What's your major?

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danzelsimage:

The AFL-CIO and its community affiliate Working America are launching a massive, late stage get-out-the-vote effort to ensure that as many union voters as possible in 21 battleground states go to the polls come Nov. 4.

The union conglomerate will dispatch volunteers to nearly 4 million union households, in addition to making 5.5 million calls from now until Election Day.

Of equal interest, the AFL-CIO released internal polling findings on Wednesday morning that showed growing support for Barack Obama among union members since mid-August. As officials with the group note:

"In Ohio, Obama now has a 29-point advantage (61%-32%) over McCain among union members, an improvement of 16 points since August. In Pennsylvania, Obama's support has risen 22 points to a 63%-27% advantage. In Michigan, Obama now holds a commanding 68%-23% lead among union members, up 26 points. Union support is seen as crucial to Obama in the Rust Belt states as union voters are expected to comprise 25%-35% of the overall electorate in those states on November 4."

Should Obama keep this level of support among union voters, it could portend a healthy victory on election night. Coming out of the primaries -- indeed, up through a few weeks ago -- a chink in the Senator's armor seemed to be his support among working class voters, those from the Rust Belt in particular. The crisis in the housing and financial markets and other economic troubles have shifted the landscape as dramatically among this group as any other constituency.

"We're seeing a wave of support for Sen. Obama among union voters as they learn more about his positions on the issues they care about and contrast those positions to Sen. McCain's failed proposals," AFL-CIO Political Director Karen Ackerman said. "But this is no time to let up. We're going full throttle this weekend to ensure every union voter knows just how critical a vote on Election Day is to our country's future."

____________________

NW Patrick:

I don't know why but I am feeling totally relaxed. I've given in to whatever happens, happens, America will get what it votes for. In 2004 we didn't see state polls ANYTHING CLOSE to what we see today. In addition, Bush went in on Nov. 4th with an RCP average of 1.5% and won with 1.5%. Today Obama is just above 6%. Even with the one 15% outlier dropping off he is well above 4%. That's literally AT LEAST DOUBLE Bush's advantage. Add to this the MASSIVE GOTV effort and the AWESOME state polls, I'm just not worried. I'm sorry I'm not a worry wort Dem like alot of you.

Again, if McCain wins on Tuesday it would be the largest polling collapse in US History. The odds are against this happening.:)

____________________

orange24:

Have you even seen some of the deplorable sh*t the McCain campaign has been sending to FL Jewish voters? They've done everything by actually photoshop the nazi armbad onto his picture. I mean, this is some really, really, nasty sh*t. You think some 7 year old video is going to turn them off after all of the sh*t they've been subjected to? If you really believe that, then you would also have to weigh McCain's much closer relationship to this guy.

____________________

AB:

Early voting numbers for NC as of 9:00 pm Oct 28
1.623,107 early voters (26.09% of registered voters)
876,440 Dems (54.00%)
464,596 Repubs (28.62%)
Difference (LOOK AT THIS NUMBER!) 411,844

While Repubs have been able to improve their numbers relative to Dems over the last 2 days, their numbers are still anemic and the raw number of voters continues to move way away from McCain.:
Oct 26 1:00 am
655,937 Dems (55.02%)
331,577 Repubs (27.81%)
Difference 324,360
In two days the Dems have increased their most basic advantage by 87,000.
This is called ground game
This is a picture of the enthusiasm gap (really, more than a quarter of eligible voters in NC have already voted ....)
Where are the exit polls for these people?

____________________

Dewey1858:

"Poor lady is now campaigning non-stop in the last days of the election because his son didn't care about the state until it was late."

Or maybe because they figure she's much less like to wing a foreign policy comment to launch a prospective congressional bid, a la Jow the Plumber.
(Obama has both Bill and Biden in PA at present)

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@OGLiberal

I believe you that there is nothing to be ashamed of for either man regarding Rashid Khalidi. Though I do believe that his middle eastern background is going to be used as a poltical weapon. Low information voters are not going to bother to take the time to figure out who he is or what he does. They are simply going to believe that "hes foreign, hes bad." Which is exactly what the McCain/Drudge/Fixed News spin machine is trying to do.

Subtle facts are often lost on busy voters and my point with bringing up the 500K is that McCain will never go there because he has a direct financial tie to the same man he's accusing Obama of supporting.

I know it isn't an ideal position and in a perfect world reason, analysis and judgement would prevail. Until then sometime you've got to fight fire with fire.

____________________

Thatcher:

AB:

No exit polls of early voters until the polls close Nov 4.

____________________

wakeup:

I have seen the LA Times Khalidi tape. Obama mentions several dinners with the four of them (Michele, Mona, Rashid, and Barack). Beyond that Khalidi articles kept appearing in Obama speeches well into the primary. The importance of this is confined only to the Jewish vote in FL... If it resonates.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I asked this question the other day. I will admit I wasn't this engaged in over in regards to "polls." DID WE HAVE TRACKERS daily in '04? It's odd to me almost every single National poll, like the ones that come out once a month or even every two weeks show a high single digits or double digit Obama lead but every "tracker" has anywhere from 2-8 depending on the model.

Any explanation?

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Go Canes! I was at that rain soaked FSU game that we almost came back and won.

I we run the table with Virginia, VT and Georgia Tech we might get a chance at a rematch for the ACC title.

____________________

TheCanadian:

Wakeup, if you have seen the tape, how about you release it for the MSM? Oh wait, you actually haven't seen it.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

My Bachelor's(in Accounting) is from FIU. I graduated in 2005. So you are a fellow Panther :-) I am now in Law School at UM. Nothing against FIU, actually my husband is a professor there, but you should know that until recently FIU law students were not admitted to the bar because of the School's lack of formal credentials. Now I think they are credited. However, I couldn't wait so I decided to go ahead and apply to UM. I am know in my second year.

____________________

OGLiberal:

This is worth noting and very good news for Obama. May go a long way towards explaining Obama's growing lead in Ohio, increased support in Indiana, and solid numbers in Pennsylvania:

AFL-CIO's Internal Polling Shows Dramatic Gains For Obama Among Rust Belt Union Members
By Greg Sargent - October 29, 2008, 10:00AM

In another sign of key movement in his direction, Barack Obama has dramatically improved his standing with three key constituencies in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to internal polling conducted by the AFL-CIO that an official shares with us.

AFL spokesperson Steve Smith says the union federation will release polling numbers later this morning that show jumps in those three states among gun owners, veterans, and retirees. Here's an advance look:

Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early September, a 21 point jump.
Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in early September, an 18 point jump.

And among retirees, we're now at 59-31, up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margin.


Smith adds that AFL polling also shows big gains for union members overall in those three states:

In Ohio, Obama now has a 29-point advantage (61%-32%) over McCain among union members, an improvement of 16 points since August.
In Pennsylvania, Obama's support has risen 22 points to a 63%-27% advantage.

In Michigan, Obama now holds a commanding 68%-23% lead among union members, up 26 points.

____________________

laguna_b:

Americans are so well propagandized on Israel that they never ask ANY questions and are full of false information. The facts are that Israel was formed by taking other people's land (Palestinians) and the wars that have raged there have shown no sign of abating because those people and thier friends are not forgetting that. This is the reason for 9/11, not jealousy about our lifestyle of desire to end our freedom. As time goes on this sistuation willeither be healed by the USA taking a neutral stance on Israel and being an honest broker of peace or we will face much more than a 9/11. I have enormous respect for Israel and what they have done but the reality is I am not willing to risk MY country on a 20,000km2 piece of crappy ground 6000miles away. If it were up to me I would move the entire population to the USA. It would certainly be an improvement to our population. I just wish Americans could have the level of debate that Israelis have everyday w/o some ape accusing one of being anti-semetic! I just hope Obama tones down his "anything for Israel" mentality and starts being open minded...after the smoke clears is not when we should be asking key questions here. Israel is NOT an ally, they are our protectorate. They give us nothing, we give them everything.
I have said my piece...

____________________

Trosen:

Didn't realize that about FIU's law school. I almost applied. What does your husband teach? My wife is currently working on her Master's at FIU.

____________________

Trosen:

Carl29, Didn't realize that about FIU's law school. I almost applied. What does your husband teach? My wife is currently working on her Master's at FIU.

mandalorian, UM's path to the ACC title isn't too different from Obama's path to an Election Night blowout. gotta go through VA and GA.

____________________

Thatcher:

NW Patrick -

If I remember correctly, there were three:

Rasmussen
Gallup
Battleground

____________________

mysticlaker:

Where McCain is...

http://www.johnmccain.com/calendar/

All campaign stops in PA, OH, VA for McCain.

Palin does the same plus IN, MO...

CO, NM, NV, NC are left undefended. IN, MO are basically left undefended. This is great news for John McCain.

____________________

carl29:

The exit polls this year will be worst than ever with all this early voting, in which Obama is ahead. No one is polling early voters, well not at least me, your fellow blogger, when voted last week.

*I was kind of informally poll by UM students, but that is for a school project or something, nothing to do with the Media.

____________________

wakeup:

Canadian,
This is why I am confused... This video was out there months ago. Now it is not? It is the farewell dinner for the Khalidi's, is it not? Obama spoke of the great friendship and how he will miss them leaving Chicago. Now it is the property of LA Times???

____________________

Dana Adini:

AB

the dems magic number in NC is 68% turnout....which would require the gop to have 100% turnout to get even as far as number of voters

____________________

zoot:

Wakeup - the problem with McCain trying to stampede my fellow Jews is that there are a lot of other factors at work. Palin's evangelical ties don't thrill the Jewish community, with its emphasis on the Rapture and the conversion of the Jewish people. There's a big cultural and political gap between that community and the pitchfork-waving populists that McCain is trying to mobilize, and many Jewish voters are uncomfortable with where this kind of angry mob reaction will lead. Because of our history, Jews by and large are distrustful of political turmoil, which is what McCain seems to be focused on. Finally, large segments of the community seem to have accepted that Obama is not anti-Israel; this nonsense could have had a greater effect just after the convention, but particularly in FLA, Wexler and Schultz Wasserman have been very effective surrogates in quieting things down.

While I think there's a respectable case to be made for the Palestinian plight, you apparently don't, so tell us- how is attending the dinner worse than appropriating large grants for his organization? I suspect we'll be waiting a long time for the answer.

Repubs don't seem to get the message - when the country is in crisis, most voters simply aren't interested in the kind of mud that the GOP likes to hurl around, particularly when you've nominated a super-annuated candidate who seems totally out of touch.

____________________

Turn out the lights............................

____________________

carl29:

wakeup

According to the story that my very Jewish professor told me, the party was in honor of Ed Said, and the whole Palestian/Arabic society of Chicago was there :-)

Told you so, they know the story better than us.

____________________

Babbit:

Ya know what, screw you all. I have had it with all the negative connotations toward arabs and Muslims. Rashid Khalidi is exactly the type of person we should all be associating with. He's is an intellectual who has written books and articles and is a well respected professor at a prestigious university. What the hell is wrong with Obama having dinner with him or McCain funding his research? Aren't we all entitled to have an opinion on issues affecting our country? Shouldn't the highly researched points that Khalidi has made at least be given respect? If you disagree, fine, but don't insist that there's something wrong with having a different view. Especially when your only argument against that view is an emotional one. I'm calling you all out - if you have a problem with Rashid Khalidi, you are racist.

____________________

Trosen:

mystic, it's cear that McCain has forsaken all the western toss-ups, and I think he loses them all. So the Westerns + NH or IA, it's over, regardless of FL, OH, MO, IN, NC, or GA. Even if he could flip PA at this point he'd need a mircale in some other state where he's losing AND not campaigning. It's damn near hopeless.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Palin tried this PR stunt refering to the West Bank as Judea and Samria and questioning a two state solution. That apppeals to to right wing jews who probably make up 20%. This will do well in Brooklyn and Bergen County but NY and NJ is going blue anyway.

Jews in Florida are pretty moderate so it will have little impact

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

My husband teaches Math. Yeah...I know everyone's favorite :-)

____________________

laguna_b:

@Babbit
"Especially when your only argument against that view is an emotional one. I'm calling you all out - if you have a problem with Rashid Khalidi, you are racist."

Right on! ala Colin Powell!

The best way to increase radical Islam in the USA is to isolate, marginalize and suspect all Arab and Muslim people. You provide a fertile breeding ground for rascism and anger.

____________________

douglasdao:

I have met Khalidi. I have heard Khalidi speak. The idea that he is a fire-breathing terrorist is totally absurd. He is a very intelligent, mild-mannered and delightful human being. Why do the right-wingers hate him? Because he, like Jimmy Carter, dares to mention that the Israeli government does not abide by standards of human rights in their treatment of Arab-Israeli citizens and Palestinians in occupied territory. Int he eyes of the fire-breathing "Israel can do no wrong" right-wing in this country, that is some kind of evil. It's beyond stupid. The really stupid thing though for the McCain campaign is that anyone who could possibly care about Khalidi as a negative already are steeped in hatred for Obama. It won't move a single vote.

____________________

straight talk:

Tell it like it is Babbit! The only reason Khalidi is a story is because he is a friend of OBama! But no one mentions that he is a friend of McCains to. WHO CARES! I am too busy watching the polls!

____________________

zoot:

Babbit, try focusing your anger on the people who deserve it instead of lashing out indiscriminately. Many of us, including Jewish posters, understand the complexity of the Palestine-Israel standoff, and welcome the fact that there are respectable intellectual voices to be heard from both sides. Its a lot better than suicide bombing. The other posters were simply accepting the tacit assumption from people like Wakeup that there's something inherently wrong with associating with voices of dissent in order to point out his hypocrisy. That's all. Let's move on.

____________________

Trosen:

carl29, it's my understanding that most, if not all exit pollers are figuring in EV/absentees.

Babbit, welcome to the club. What no one talks about are things like when that batty old lady at the McCain campaign said "I heard Obama's an Ay-rab!" and McCain's correction was "No, he's a good man." In other words.. if he WAS Arab, he wouldn't be a "good man." WTF is that all about? And the media has only attacked the woman and the right-wing media for a false accusation of ethnicity, and praised McCain for "setting the record straight." That is a very unfortunate picture of where this country stands in terms of tolerance.

____________________

NYCREALAMERICAN:

M2 said:

The math remains the same:

Kerry states + IA + NM + CO = Obama victory

And there is zero indication that Obama will do less than that.


Agreed. We should not lose sight of this. Of course having VA and NV in double digits adds to the relaxation. And thinking about flipping NC, FL, OH, MO and IN just makes me dizzy with anticipation. I'll settle for 274. But I'd like 375.

____________________

laguna_b:

"Palin tried this PR stunt refering to the West Bank as Judea and Samria and questioning a two state solution. "

This is the "end days" mentality talking....Jews that don't convert die, there is Armagedon and we all die....these scarey people like that should not even be allowed to rise to Mayor of Wasilla

____________________

Trosen:

Carl.. my wife is taking Stats.. any chance? =)

____________________

Mister H.:

A N Y QUESTIONS?


Yeah, I got one.

How can Obama being doing that well in the average in all of those states, yet only be up by 3 or so in the daily tracking? That makes no sense.

Who knows....maybe the polls that say he has a 7 or 8 point lead are indeed accurate??

____________________

AB:

Dana Adini,
2004 turnout statistics for NC were:
Total 64%
Dems 65%
Repubs 69%
Ind 54%
Libertarian (small number of registered voters) 57%
White 68%
AA 59%
I think the numbers will be different this year. And the registration numbers are already different.

____________________

Dana Adini:

douglas,

Khalidi is a devisive issue intended to dirvert attention off the ecomomy. There is no evidence to suggest that obama supports khalidi or his positions. Obama's position on Israel is on record and is unequivical

I will go on record and say that in my opinion Obama will pardon Jonathan Pollard. just a gut feeling

____________________

BrookLynda:

Georgia is in play...I hear Max Cleland will be stumping for Obama.

Thank you, ladies and germs, I'll be here all week....

____________________

Dana Adini:

AB

true and dem crossover for bush was in excess of 20% all crosstabs suggest that it is in the low teens this year

____________________

rami:

I'm still worrying about NC and FL, those 2 far from sure.

On the other hand, it's worthy to note that all those state but two (NH and PA, and those were close) vote BUSH in '04 :-)

____________________

Trosen:

Mister H.. got a friend who does polling and they theorize that ether a) the Ras's and Zogby's of the world are purposefully making the #s look closer down the stretch for business/partisan reasons. OR that b) Some Obama surrogates are out there sandbagging to prevent complacency in the ranks of the Volunteer/GOTV corps. Who knows. I think the "undecideds" were mostly Republicans in drag who are now coming "home." as was predicted by a lot of pollsters.

____________________

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

The fact is the two set of state numbers are for 10/22-10/26, Gramp's good polling days were Sunday and yesterday so until we start seeing state polls that start Monday etc we won't know where McCain's gains are coming from. Of course by then O could expand his lead again.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

My husband teaches Statistics, among many other subjects, but I don't think that he is teaching graduate courses this semester. I remember him teaching a couple of graduate courses but I don't think he is doing it this time. I mean...those graduate courses are a pain in the "neck," for real. I think he prefers undergraduate, easier, although he has a couple of mega-sections, those of more than 200 students in an auditorium.

____________________

wakeup:

Carl 29,
Ed Said is at Columbia. The dinner video I saw was a black tie affair in honor of Khalidi... Obama spoke of Khalidi in glowing terms. I do not understand why the video I saw is now property of the LA Times.

____________________

carl29:

wakeup

See how they are throwing all the names together. The story that I remember my professor told me had Khalidi and Said in the mix together with Ayers. Isn't laughable? I don't know why they didn't put Noam Chomsky in the mix, to make it sound more anti-Israel/US :-)

____________________

Trosen:

wakeup, the LA times explained it. It was given to them on condition of not releasing it to the public. (they can get mega-sued for that). The McCain campaing might quickly try to sue to get it out, but they'd lose. Look, someone turned the tape over, and the LA times ran the story. You got your smear. It will only go so far.

The problem is, even if they did "release" it, the McCain camapign and right-wing media would have less than a week to trun Khalidi into a bin-Laden like figure, when they had weeks to try that with Ayers, and that didn't work. Sorry dude.. your smoking gun here is firing blanks.

____________________

wakeup:

zoot,
I bring up Khalidi in terms of politics, that is all. How Khalidi might sway the Jewish vote in FL? Maybe Palin does cancel Khalidi...

____________________

mrzookie:

The discrepency between national and state polls is not as off as some think. If you compare polls released this week to previous ones done within the past 2-3 weeks by same pollster, there is a small, but perceptible, movement towards local tightening:

(all numbers old/new diff, +/- Obama unless noted)

Rasmussen (or Fx/Ras, but not mixed):
OH M+2/O+4 +6
VA 3/4 +1 (note: from Fx/Ras 10/4 -6)
FL M+1/O+4 +5
NC O+3/M+1 -4
MO 5/1 -4
NV 5/4 -1
CO 5/1 -1
PA 13/7 -6
WI 10/7 -3

Quinnipiac
OH 14/9 -5
FL 5/2 -3
PA 15/12 -3

SUSA
OH 5/4 -1
MO 8/Tie -8
WA 16/17 +1

I sure as hell hope, and still expect, to wake up to President Obama on 11/5, but to ignore that it's tightening locally is hiding one's head in the sand.

Eye on the ball. Kerry + IA+CO+VA and hopefully OH (no idea what's going on in NM)

____________________

Hmm.
Something doesn't seem right. You've got these national polls tightening, yet Obama's leading in these states?

I'm really stoked to see it but I just don't understand it.

____________________

OGLiberal:

@wakeup

Ed Said - another respected scholar who is demonized often by ideologues - isn't at Columbia, he's dead. Khalidi is now at Columbia. The dinner was to honor Khalidi's departure from the U of Chicago to take on his current job at Columbia.

Obama was honoring a former colleague, friend, and respected academician/scholar. This dinner was not a political event, it was send-off for a college professor. And Khalidi is not a bad guy. If you think he's bad, please explain how and why. Just because he doesn't agree with the neo-cons - the true nuts here - about Israel-Palestinian relations doesn't make the guy a bad person.

____________________

straight talk:

The McCain campaign could have went hard after the jewish vote in Florida! But they assumed that Florida would not vote for Barack Obama because of the jewish vote! So Obama went to talk to them! And they aske him about Khalidi! The jewish people in Florida know about this man ties to Obama, but it was the McCain Camp job to remind them! But I think it is too late! People are already voting!

____________________

carl29:

OGLiberal,

Thank you for clarifying that Prof. Said passed away, but I see that their point is about the event not the timeline.

____________________

Lou-NH:

@babbit

Try to relax ... unfortunatley this is an unpleasant part of this process ... most people don't really care about these issues. I am Khalidi is a very intelligent & knowledgable individual in the area of middle eastern affairs otherwise, why would John McCain provide funding for him if he represented soething else. I will never forget Colin Powells endorsement. This is a great American hero reminding us that we all have paid with blood for our country.

____________________

Babbit:

zoot and others,

When the conversation being had is basically trying to decipher who is worse, the guy who had dinner with the Muslim or the other guy who funded the Muslim's research, then I will direct my anger toward all those having it. Muslims are the latest group of punching bags in America. It has become unfashionable to put down blacks because of their skin color, and women because of their genatalia, and every other group that has been systematically beat down throughout American history so now we've moved on to Muslims.

I am glad to see that at least some people on here have good hearts and minds so if I wrongly called you personally out then I apologize.

Obama and McCain should both be commended for their openmindedness toward Rashid Khalidi and his research.

____________________

Ahhh, these polls were taken before the national tightening then? Hmm well, I sure as heck hope Obama is still gonna pull this off.
*bites nails*

____________________

wakeup:

OG,
Carl29 said the dinner was in honor of Ed Said. Coumbia's Palestinian Dept. is named after Ed Said, correct? Khalidi is important regarding the Jewish vote in FL because the AAAN has sent money to the PLO.

____________________

laguna_b:

What is funny to me is how the radical christian right has "embrassed" Israel in a death embrace. These people who were the core of ages of anti-semitism now see Israel as the path to "end days". It should have given Ariel Sharon a CREEPY feeling raising support among these people who are far less intellectual or educated than Israelis and looking forward to thie rcoversions or deaths.....but cheering them on in the mantime...creepy...like eveything about evangelical radicals...

____________________

wakeup:

Carl,
Ayers was at the dinner. Obama and Ayers funded the AAAN. Look at the names of college professors supporting Ayers... I think Rashid Khalidi is number 8.

____________________

carl29:

wakeup,

To me, Ed Said was no less than a respected scholar. However, the fact that the "rumors" among Jews is that he was at the party, or that the party was in his honor, suggest that somehow that is bad. Most probable his name was thrown in the story to make it look worst. I just telling you what my very Jewish Prof. told me. My Professor couldn't care less about it as do his fellow friends and family :-)

____________________

Dana Adini:

It republicans fail to realize that is that what freaks jews out more than Khalidi are the radical elements of the republican party or southern republicans we probably hate jews just as much as they hate AA.

Kalidi is nonsense

____________________

straight talk:

Pew had Obama at 15+ just yesterday! There is no way that Obama is leading in all the major battleground states and closin in on the red red states like Ms, AZ,GA, Mt,Mo! He has to be up by more than 5% to be doing even remotely close to what he is doing! This guy is threatning to go 400+in the electorial college if AA turnout flips states in the South! He has a 100+ ev advantage as of today! But track polls show the race tightening! Pew research was pretty accurate in the 04 election! I think Obama is actually +10 nationally! But hay at least Obama don't have to motive his GOTV effort because he has the national polls to do that for him.

____________________

Dana Adini:

meant to say southern republican we feel hate.....

____________________

wakeup:

Am I the only one who has seen this video? It was out there during the primaries... I do not see the big deal about releasing it when it was already released.

____________________

carl29:

wakeup,

The point that I am trying to make is that this story of the party has been going around the FL Jewish community since Obama became the frontrunner in the Democratic primaries. The support that Obama has among FL Jews is in spite of all these smears campaigns.

I think that one of the most relevant reasons for Obama support among Jews is the fact that he is supported by most important figures in the Jewish community in the nation, among them Former NY Mayor Ed Koch who endorsed Bush in 2004. In addition of having Biden on the ticket, one of the most pro-Israel members of Congress with a long record to prove it.

____________________

Babbit:

wakeup, You are a racist and a bigot and are determined to dumb this country down to the point where we will be lapping up water from the toilet bowles because we don't know any better.

____________________

joethedummer:

the antichrist is supposed to spread its wings in 2012, could palin be the antichrist?
considering she has started her on campaign twourds the whitehouse already and left mccain in the dust, it is not far fetched thinking that this fake bible toting whackjob is the true antichrist!

____________________

wakeup:

Babbit,
Calm down. What policy will Obama follow regarding the PLO? Is that a racist question? Sorry to offend the Cult of Personality that has captivated you so.

____________________

OGLiberal:

RE: Obama and the Jews.

I read a long New Yorker piece about Obama's rise in the Chicago political world. Many of his mentors and early supporters were/are Jews. Michelle Obama's cousin is one of the most prominent black rabbis in the country. His level of support among Jewish supporters is equal to and perhaps greater than the support Kerry got from these voters in 2004.

The Khalidi connection - which is old news - won't make a difference. Heck, it hasn't even turned Marty Peretz away from Obama - that should tell something.

____________________

carl29:

wakeup,

That's an easy answer: Obama's policy towards Palestians will be that of Israel's :-)

Haven't you notice that every US president does it?

I think that the keystone in the issue is Israel's government. If Israel's government is willing to work things out with the Palestinians, the US government will support it, regardless of who is president. If Israel's government doesn't want, the US government will follow as well, period.

____________________

Babbit:

laguna, you hit the nail on the head about the 'death embrace'. Hard liners believe all the Jews must return to Israel so the end of days can come.

carl, I couldn't agree with you more.

____________________

OGLiberal:

@Babbit

I'm not getting the sense that wakeup is a racist or a bigot. I do, however, think that he is attaching to much import to Obama's associations with Rashid Khalidi and the effect of those associations on the Jewish vote in this country.

____________________

RossPhx:

Not too early now to start looking at Election Day weather, for the old fogies who actually wait to vote until then.

Where would weather make a difference? Let's try Ohio.

Cleveland: Sunny and 61.

Cincinnati: Sunny and 63.

Maybe too nice to stay inside and vote?

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

carter had it right, Israel supports appartheid.

____________________

carl29:

@Babbit,

"I couldn't agree with you more." This reminds me of the McCain appereance in Western PA :-)
Wasn't it funny?

____________________

nathan:

What will it take to turn my state (Colorado) dark blue?

PAINT IT DARK BLUE!

____________________

Babbit:

Actually wakeup, you have offended me personally. In this case, both Obama and McCain have shown their support and acceptance of the professor Rashid Khalidi.

Obama has clearly stated his policy toward all things Israel. I don't actually agree with all his policies regarding the issue, but I doubt anyone could become president unless they had those same policies.

What really makes no sense is why you (and you're certainly not the only one) have a problem with the various professors that Barack Obama knows on whatever level he knows them. It's clearly racist in the case of Rashid Khalidi, and it's a slap in the face of people who are able to think on a higher level than "bomb, bomb Iran", "with us or against us", and dogs with lipstick.

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Dana Adini:

considering Jimmy Carter's record I doubt he got anything right

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Babbit:

carl, I couldn't not disagree with you about that either. ^_^

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Steve_OH:

@NYCREALAMERICAN:

"BUT IF SYDNEY WINS 12% OF AA SUPPORT IN OH - I WILL PERSONALLY GO TO ATHENS AND LICK EVERY BRICK ON THE OHIO UNIVERSITY CAMPUS."

Deal. I live in Athens, so if it happens, I will meet you, clipboard in hand, and make sure you don't miss any. ;)

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SmarterThanYou:

These are the polls people should be worrying about. National Polls are useless considering 1% lead is around 1 million people.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

These are very scary all-around numbers for McCain. Halloween is here.

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ruyen:

If anyone heard Democracy Now's show the other day (http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes), you'll know that voting machines are already flipping Obama votes to McCain and the move to steal the election (like Ohio's hundreds of thousands of lost votes in 2004) is already in motion.

Point being: Don't let up, continue to donate/volunteer, and don't get content, even if Obama goes up 20pts in every single state please keep working towards victory.

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ruyen:

"Trosen:

Game. Set. Match. Good night."

No time to relax, it's not over.

If anyone heard Democracy Now's show the other day (http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes), you'll know that voting machines are already flipping Obama votes to McCain and the move to steal the election (like Ohio's hundreds of thousands of lost votes in 2004) is already in motion.

Point being: Don't let up, continue to donate/volunteer, and don't get content, even if Obama goes up 20pts in every single state please keep working towards victory.

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Gary Kilbride:

Those numbers are too favorable to Obama. I disregard them. That's my instinct when the state numbers don't make sense with the national margin. It rarely lets me down.

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Yellow Dog Democrat:

Beware the cynics though. I heard one right wing propaganda-monger on the radio claiming that for Obama to win he needs to be at 55% right now in all the states he's ahead in, because there will be a five percent "bradley effect". Meaning five percent of the people being polled are either lying about being for Obama or just won't be able to pull the lever for a black man when it comes down to it. So, he says, you have to take five points off of Barack's numbers to get the real numbers and that puts many of these states back in the margin of error.

I don't buy it myself but lets face it this is unchartered territory here.

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