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AR: 2010 Sen Primary (Kos 6/2-4)

Topics: Arkansas , poll

DailyKos.com / Research 2000
6/2-4/10; 600 likely Democratic primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Arkansas

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
49% Halter, 45% Lincoln (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Halter will win this primary. Fate has still had that tendancy for female incumbents, against males have only lost one senate general election over the past decade. That was Jim Talent in MO beating Carnahan. I can't think of a GOP woman who was unseated by a man either.

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Juan Chin:

The only GOP woman in recent memory to lose to a male was Margaret Chase Smith of Maine back in 1972. Congressman Hathaway (D) beat her and then he was defeated in 1978 by then Congressman Bill Cohen (R).
I think Halter has the edge, but I certainly wouldn't count Lincoln out. Bill Clinton is there to lead over over the victory line on Tuesday. The question is, however, is today's Arkansas Democratic Party the same party as it was in Clinton's day? I do think Halter has the best chance against the rightwinger nominee.

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Farleftandproud:

The liberal/ conservative trend is a bit misleading. I have seen polls that have 21 percent liberal and 38 percent conservative.

"Liberal" is a misunderstood word, and being in a country that is so obsessed with religion, and tradition, many people who lean left will not consider themselves liberal. I am willing to bet that many of these are minority groups. Of course they will likely vote Democratic.

I noticed that some who consider themselves "conservative" considered themselves Democrats. Of course that was only 16 percent in last year's Gallup Poll, but perhaps, someone like Ben Nelson would classify themselves as conservative.

The die hard progressives like myself are a minority, but we have a big voice! Conservatives have another thing coming if they think we don't.

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Farleftandproud:

I can only remember Jim Talent in 2002 beating Sen Carnahan in MO.

Sen Cohen was a good guy. There is no way he would ever be even allowed to be a Republican in this day and age.

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GoTo123:

Halter will likely beat Blanche in the primary but will be defeated badly by whoever the GOP nominee is in November. Even the Clinton's can't make much of a difference in this election. Arkansas is nowhere near as liberal as it was 10-15 years ago and is now one of the most conservative states in the union.

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tjampel:

GoTo123: If you don't know who the Republican nominee is don't you think you might at least find that info out before posting. I mean, Boozeman won the Repub primary outright weeks ago.

AR is not well disposed to Obama, perhaps but still has two Dem Senators, some Dem Congressmen, and a Dem Gov. It's a bit of a stretch to call it one of the most conservative places in the country. It's not quite ready to give Idaho or AL or OK a run for its money.

Halter's not going to win here but I haven't seen one post on Mr Boozeman. We don't know whether he's vulnerable or not; we don't know his background, financial dealing, business history, etc. We don't know exactly how he's been articulating his positions and who that might be used against him (if at all...maybe he IS a perfect fit for AR)

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kingsbridge77:

Two caveats:

1) Automatic polls are better than live ones, historically. This one is live.

2) Research 2000 had Coakley and Brown tied in their last massachussets poll. Brown won by 5.

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tjampel:

kingsbridge77:

Two caveats:

1) Automatic polls are better than live ones, historically. This one is live.

2) Research 2000 had Coakley and Brown tied in their last massachussets poll. Brown won by 5.

Please prove #1 with any evidence you have. The evidence I've seen points towards automatic polls being possibly flawed because they miss cell phone users, for one thing. That's not a small issue. Many households are becoming cell phone only or mainly cell phone. I've seen no study which concludes that IVR is a superior method to live. Please enlighten me with some data. Maybe you're right but show me studies which agree with your claim.

As for the final poll in the Brown/Coakley race...Kos/Research 2000 missed it, not by a mile but, with PPP spot on (5 point spread) and Suffolk off just 1 point (4 point spread) it doesn't look so good. Then again, Ras, which stopped polling a week before the contest, had Coakley still UP over Brown.


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GoTo123:

tjampel: I'm sorry, but there's simply no way that the Democrats can possibly hold onto this Senate seat unless the GOP candidate makes a monumental mistake.

And yes, Arkansas is one of the most conservative states in the U.S. Although it isn't as conservative as Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, or Oklahoma it is still up there.

Here is the 2008 election results of Arkansas and all the other states that voted for McCain by a larger margin.

Arkansas - 20%
Alabama - 22%
Wyoming - 22%
Alaska - 22%
Idaho - 25%
Utah - 29%
Oklahoma - 32%

As you can see, Arkansas is very high up there on the "conservative meter."

And to further back up my claim, Arkansas had 47,643 less people ( or -5.6%) vote Democratic in 2008 than in 2004. Arkansas was one of the very few states to shift to the right. The others are:

Lousiana -37,310 (-2.3%)
Oklahoma -1,470 (-0.1%)
West Virginia -22,684 (-0.7%)

(Note: Tennessee and Massachusetts both had % decreases in Democratic votes from 2004 to 2008, but they both had an increase in the number of people voting Democratic in 2008 as compared to 2004.)

Every other state including such red bastions as Alaska, Alabama, Utah, Idaho, and even Wyoming, had more people voting Democratic in 2008 than in 2004. This clearly illustrates that Arkansas has had a major shift to the right since 2004.

While I hate to sound pessimistic, do you understand why I see this as a hopeless race for Democrats? There is just a very very low chance of the Democrats holding on to this Senate seat. Sorry.

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