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AR: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 12/1)


Rasmussen
12/1/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Arkansas

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 34 / 65
Gov. Beebe: 70 / 28

2010 Senate
Kim Hendren (R) 46%, Blanche Lincoln (D) 39%
Gilbert Baker (R) 47%, Blanche Lincoln (D) 41%
Curtis Coleman (R) 44%, Blanche Lincoln (D) 40%
Tom Cox (R) 43%, Blanche Lincoln (D) 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Hendern: 41 / 19
Lincoln: 43 / 52
Baker: 40 / 19
Coleman: 37 / 22
Cox: 41 / 19

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
32% Somewhat/Strongly favor, 64% Somewhat/Strongly oppose

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

This Poll is truly a sad statement. I don't think Rasmussen is correct on a lot of this stuff but at this point it is obvious that that 33 percent who support health care reform are people who Senator Lincoln needs to help re-elect her. She can't back down at this point based on a stupid poll. I am sure she'll lose worse if she would consider joining a fillibuster.

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Farleftandproud:

I also am surprised Lincoln is this high in Rasmussen's poll because chances are people who voted for Barack Obama in her state, according to Rasmussen wouldn't be likely voters since, they are not happy with her lack of support for the public option. I have seen polls that had Mark Pryor who I believe is supporting the public option, much higher than Lincoln.

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Xenobion:

Lincoln was in a die or die situation. HC legislation vote down would have resulted a failure to secure her democratic primary. She'll suicide herself with votes until she's voted out.

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Quentin Menzel:

RR tends to lean right, but these results seem pretty much spot-on. Lincoln is in some serious trouble.

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Stillow:

I actually think if she votes against HCR she might win re-election. If she votes for it, she is totally toast. She will probably lose by 15+ if she votes for it....but against it she could still win a squaker by a couple points. Poll after poll shows AR does not want that lame HCR package.....if she has any sense of loyalty to her state she will vote against it in the end.

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Xenobion:

She'll lose the Democratic primary if she votes against it. And even if she won the primary she'd be seriously weakened financially to run a primary campaign and an offical campaign. Its much easier for her to vote for it and focus energies on 1 person.

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Stillow:

She could pull a Lieberman if the Dems push her out with a liberal. If she votes against it, runs as an I, she would get the Dem loyalists probably she had before, some Indy's are probably some repubs who liked her and voted for he rbefore....IMO her best plan is to vote no as her state wants.

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Bigmike:

I live in AR so let me help out on this one.

This is generally a D state except for Presidential elections. But the D's who win elections here are not from the left wing of the party. This is blue dog territory.

Pryor polls much better for lots of reasons. One is legacy. He is the son of former Sen David Pryor, who was pretty popular. M Pryor is also much more charismatic than Blanche.

Blanche isn't really any farther left than Pryor. But she has a longer history in DC he does. I can't think of any one thing that turned voters sour on her.

It would be a tough fight to unseat her in a Dem primary. Even if she votes no on health care. Again, this is blue dog country.

I don't know anything that Blanche can do at this point to win, but 11 months is a long time in politics.

The Dems best chance to hold the seat is for Blanche to not run, at least as things stand today. Non of the R's on that list are household names, even in the state. Hendren is the best known and I believe he has run for public office before and been beaten. It should tell you a lot about Blanches chances that no-names are polling better than she is.

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Bigmike:

There is actually some logic to the idea that Blanche could vote yes on health care and then announce she is not running for reelection. For that to happen, you would think she has to be a true believer. From her public statements she isn't. But those statements may have been made with an eye on reelection.

There may be other Dems out there who could make a good fight of it next year. Unless Huckabee wants to be a Senator.

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Xenobion:

Interesting insight Bigmike. Good to know the homegrown perspective. :)

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FOXRULES:

Rasmussen is allways spot on. They nailed
both govenors races in november. Lincoln,
Reid, Spector, Dodd, will all be gone come november.Can't wait. Then we get rid of that radical in the white house, whats his name in 2012. Keep it up . You Democrats are droping like a rock in all polls no matter who conducts them.

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