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ARG: AR, FL, IN, PA (10/28-31)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
10/28-31/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Arkansas
McCain 51, Obama 44

Florida
Obama 50, McCain 46

Indiana
Obama 48, McCain 48

Pennsylvania
Obama 51, McCain 45

 

Comments
MC_from_Cali.:

These look like really good numbers if there accurate, especially Indiana. I have a couple questions, how accurate do you think these numbers are? Also does Virginia have early voting, and if so any early voting numbers from there?

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FrankShankly:

ARG's last poll had Obama +4 in PA. Going in the right direction ...

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colivigan:

@MC_from_Cali:

Virginia doesn't officially have "early voting", but they do have in-person absentee voting, and many local officials are encouraging people to use it, to help cut down on the waits on Tuesday. Turnout has reportedly been much higher than usual.

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Atomique:

If Obama's really within 7 points in Arkansas, he's probably doing pretty well in Missouri.

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andrewfromva:

I live in va and will be voting at 6am when the polls open. i talked to some people at work who voted absentee in person and the had to wait about 50 minutes to do so. it's gonna be crowded on election day...

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PJ_FFM:

For some reason I think I considered ARG to be rather okay bak in 2004 with their state polls... I like these numbers, but of course from my personal political point of view there sure could be bigger margins in favor of Barry the Senator... ;-)

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deeznutsrepubs:

How accurate are these numbers....not very I'd say.


ARG is pure garbage......look how they did in the primaries....just utter BS. You are better off throwing darts.

PA is wider than that, just look at the other polls. AR is not that close. IN & FL seem about right (hey, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile).

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jswarren:

I guess the PA # is good for McCain, but it's really just down 1 for Obama from the Morning Call tracking polls. I'm assuming McCain will will 75% of undecideds.

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jswarren:

If McCain has Obama right where he wants him in PA, does Obama have McCain right where he wants him in Arkansas?

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radmod:

@andrewfromva

Where in VA? For me, it's Williamsburg, and, yes, my wife and I will be there at 6AM. We've even planned our breakfast and lunch specifically for that day. (Not to mention, the alcohol that night!)

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sankaba:

Folks help me out here, if I'm missing something about PA.

1. This is an year that has been loaded heavily against Republicans, all over the nation, thanks to the incumbent and economy.

2. GOP is fighting hard to keep its own turf and most Red states are in play, if you believe polls (ALL of them, Pres/Senate/Cong cannot be wrong).

3. PA has voted Democrats in last 4 even when GOP was having a good time, and except 80s, has voted Democrats before.

Given the scenario, if Obama loses in PA and if racism is not the reason, what else is?

I am saying this because I live in Montgomery County outside Philly. My gut feeling (and if you count the yard signs) there's a strong undercurrent against Obama.


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dantheman99:

"I'm assuming McCain will will 75% of undecideds."

--------------

Fox News has said and assumed this, but I've seen no data or empiracal evidence to support this as anything else other than wishful thinking for McCain. Undecided voters may not break for Obama either, but at the moment, I don't think they'll break 75% for either candidate.

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sankaba:

Follow up on my previous post:

Lots of you here mention that Obama is not visiting PA because he thinks in the bag. I feel it's the opposite: His campaign has expanded the map precisely for this reason (PA/OH). Based on his Primary experience, he knows that there's only so much he can do here. He was precise, but politically incorrect when he said people are 'clinging' to stuff (strangely he didn't mention race).

It makes just horse sense for McCain to keep PA in play, after what he saw in the Primaries here (and considering the fact that Rendell is lukewarm). It's ironic that McCain believes he can flip more easily than flipping a Red state.

The State might still go Dem, but that'll be in spite of Obama. But the mere fact that the race is close in an overwhelmingly anti-GOP year shows up PA landscape in stark light.

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Trosen:

sankaba,

Based on what? Because the best polls for McCain show him only down by 4 in PA when the rest show him down by 7,8,9 or more?

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tau84:

Maybe I'm being paranoid and I hope I am but I keep getting this bad feeling that the reason McBush is trying so hard in PA is because they don't have early voting. I have this suspicion that on election day there are going to suddenly be 'glitches' with the voting machines or not enough machines in predominately minority precincts in the state. I hope I'm totally wrong on this.

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Disco Stu:

@sankaba:

I think you must mean you "wish" PA would go red, rather than your gut feeling. There's been a lot of talk that the suburbs are going hard for Obama there...which is where the state is won or lost. If PA was truly in play for McCain, Obama would not be leading in OH & VA, and even or slightly ahead in FL, MO, IN.

I also think the ONE reason Obama isn't winning this election by 15-20 points (nationally) is RACISM. There, I said it. Obama's run a VERY good campaign, McCain's run a HORRIBLE campaign, and the environment is about as good as it gets for a Dem. I still think Obama is going to win by a significant amount, but it would have been far, far gone if he was white.

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obamite08:

Look folks. As long as Obama continues at 50% or more, he can't lose. His numbers haven't changed. McCain's have risen as it would appear the undecideds break mostly to him. Who cares? 50% or more and Obama takes the election in any state. PA has him at 50% or more in the vast majority of polls regardless of source or spread.

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sankaba:

@Disco Stu:

Thanks. You got me wrong. I want Obama to win. Well said about the national trend with respect to racism. I am not saying McCain is going to win. But just the fact that a bright blue State is hovering around a 7-8 margin (or +4 as per Rasmussen) in this year at this time says a lot.

Call me paranoid: I'm also not too happy with what Rendell goes about saying (asking Obama/Clintons to visit), sounds like a disclaimer to me in case something goes wrong.

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VA Yellow Dog:

@MC from Cali:

No early voting in VA; in-person absentee voting for one of seventeen reasons, which ended today. Wait to vote at city hall in Richmond, where I live was 3-4 hours at noon today; ~500 people in line; 80% AA. In-person absentee voting across VA has been much heavier than usual.

@Everyone else:
Two reasons McGramps and the Ice Queen keep campaigning in PA:
1. They can't win without it; and
2. They can't believe that the Atwater-Rove-Shultz-GOP-slimy-smear snake oil that they're selling doesn't work on Reagan Democrats anymore.

Get out and VOTE!

My prediction: Obama takes Kerry states (including PA) plus CO, IA, NM, NV, OH, and VA. McGramps can have FL, MO, NC, etc.
Final tally: Obama 311 EV; McCain 227 EV.

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SmarterThanYou:

I'm really not that nervous about PA, but why not throw in an Obama visit their at the end of monday. He will be in VA anyways.

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DPartridge:

Disco Stu:

You said: "I still think Obama is going to win by a significant amount, but it would have been far, far gone if he was white."

Actually, it would be less in a lot of states, because the black vote wouldn't turn out in the numbers they will. North Carolina and Georgia for instance, would likely not be close if Obama wasn't black.

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dkfennell:

Personally, I would have Obama show up in the VIP box Dan Rooney will be in during the Monday Night Football game in DC with Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis -- all 3 of which support Obama -- and all three of which are beloved by everyone in SW Pa.

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fenwaydawg:

@sankaba

PA Governor Ed Rendell, who is has a pretty good reputation for a) being a plain talker, and b) knowing his State, reckons that Obama could win PA just in the Philadelphia based Counties alone, but that the polls around Pittsburgh are better for Obama than they were for Kerry in 04.

This would suggest that the two largest popultion centres, assuming Obama gets the turnout he expects, should deliver him PA.

I'm still pretty convinced that if Obama's private polling showed him in any serious trouble, he would be piling into PA with visits and resources - if he visits more than once before Tuesday, he's worried, anything less, he's confident.

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cinnamonape:

ARG has trended far below the other polls. Especially in Pennsylvania...so the numbers are actually good. The trends are going towards Obama, and puts him above 50 in both Florida and Pennsylvania in this poll for the first time. He's also +3 (+4 gain from his prior numbers) in Indiana.

The GOTV makes Indiana clearly within reach.

ARKANSAS
10/29-31/08 600 LV 51 44 - - 1 3 +7R
9/20-22/08 600 LV 53 41 - - 0 5 +12R

FLORIDA
10/29-31 600LV 46 50 +4D
9/23-25 600 LV 46 47 - - - 1 7 - +1D
9/14-17 600 LV 46 46 - - - 3 5 - 0

INDIANA
10/29-31/08 600 LV 48 48 - - 3 1 0
9/14-16/08 600 LV 47 44 - - 4 2 +3R

PENNSYLVANIA
10/29-31/08 600 LV 45 51 - - - 3 +6D
9/19-22/08 600 LV 46 50 - - 0 4 +4D


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Obama008:

Sankaba,

I live in Bucks County, and I think Obama is going to easily take this county. I know long time republicans that are not voting for McCain.

I know where you live is more Rep, but I still think it will go Dem overall.

If Obama thought he wasnt going to win PA he would be here in a nano second.

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Obama008:

***If obama thought he was going to lose PA he would be here in a Nano second.***

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cinnamonape:

My view on Obama not returning to Pennsylvania is that he feels that he's been there enough, and that the Clintons are actually the ones to bring over any final "undecideds" and seal the deal with those who might not be firmly in the camp.

Obama is more useful elsewhere, and those states not only can provide backup, but even extend the EV's necessary for victory.

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Obama008:

Cinnamonape,

I agree with you that why the clintons have been here and I hope they come back for one more day.

I know obama is going to take PA,I just want someone "to tuck me in and say it will be ok".

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mj1:

It's funny how the bankrupt GOP has nothing left but the hope of white racism. Pathetic weak ass sauce. Unfortunately for them it's 2008, not 1978.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

PA'S COMING HOME TO PAPA MACK..EAT YOUR HEARTS OUT KOOL AID DRINKERS!!!!!!!

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bassoonista:

I live in Arkansas, and I can honestly say that it is that close. The polls here do not even close to represent the African-American population here. in both of the last two elections the democrat has gotten 45-46% of the vote. I think Obama will pull similar numbers on Tuesday. He may even pick up some of those undecideds.

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dat179:

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama wins the election, loosing PA would be a huge hit to the Democratic party. Eitherway, loosing PA will greatly reduce Obama's chances of winning the election.

McCain has been focusing on PA much more than Obama in the last two weeks. Recently the Obama campaign has announced that they will be spending time and money in several new states that have always gone Republican, including Arizona. I think this is a mistake. It spreads the campaign too thin, takes the focus from the important states like PA, and we have zero chance of winning these states.

We can not loose PA just because we want to show off by campaigning in Arizona.

Let's get serious and leave Arizona alone!!!!

Please come back to PA!!!!

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tar_heel:

The new Morning Call poll has O at 52 and M at 45, for a further tightening of 1 point. This has now gone on for three days, cutting Obama's lead in half, and the last great Obama day has likely rolled off. I don't think this particular tracker is going to go much lower, as the rate of change is rapidly decreasing, and certainly not into Ras land of O+4.

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zigmeister:

sankaba:

I also live an Montgomery County, PA and have for the last 2 elections. Believe it or not, there are less signs for McCain than there were for Bush. It may have seemed like there was no Obama support, but that was because Obama headquarters were out of signs. Now that we can get our signs, I see Obama signs everywhere - many more than Kerry or Gore. This area is very traditionally Republican but change is coming! I have neighbors who come to me and "privately" tell me that they support Obama. So don't despair - the support is there! Go OBAMA!! PA for OBAMA!!!

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Eamon:

Given the scenario, if Obama loses in PA and if racism is not the reason, what else is?

I am saying this because I live in Montgomery County outside Philly. My gut feeling (and if you count the yard signs) there's a strong undercurrent against Obama.


I live in Jenkintown...getting the opposite feeling. MccAin camp barely in evidence. Wasn't this way in 04. Obama will come out of the Philly area with bigger margins than Kerry did...Kerry won...game set match

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