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ARG: AZ, CO, MO, MT, NH (10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
10/28-30/08; 600 LV, 4% (for each state)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Arizona
McCain 50, Obama 46

Colorado
Obama 52, McCain 45

Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 48

Montana
McCain 49, Obama 46

New Hampshire
Obama 56, McCain 41
Sen: Shaheen (D) 53, Sununu (R-i) 41
Gov: Lynch (D-i) 68, Kenney (R) 28

 

Comments
McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

I can barely believe what I am seeing
If Granpa can't even be polled an higher single digit in his home state with 96 hours before the election he's in deep deep trouble

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BrookLynda:

Another AZ poll tied within the MOE??

Yellow! Yellow! Yellow!

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bclintonk:

Time to turn AZ yellow!

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jsh1120:

I think what we're seeing is, at least in part, the collapse of the GOP with Hispanic voters. If McCain weren't the nominee, it appears that Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico AND Arizona would all be turning blue. Combined with the Field Poll in California that shows the largest Democratic lead in modern history (larger than Reagan's margin), it's obvious that the GOP's reliance on xenophobia to solidify their base has cost them very dearly.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Not much surprises me anymore. But AZ is really really surprising me. There is no telling what is going to happen on Tuesday.

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RussTC3:

While Arizona is close, I'm sure we can truly call it a toss up until there is at least a poll that shows Obama up there.

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RussTC3:

That should read "I'm not sure"

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NW Patrick:

If anything the AZ # gives you insite as to how the national will go:)

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political_junki:

This AZ thing is really only good for creating good news cycles (Which dont give me wrong, is a big deal).
You can read nate silvers piece in 538 about it.
I think the amount of media attention Obama camp got by spending a little money in AZ is much much more than if they had spent the money in a TV ad.

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JCK:

Surprisingly reasonable numbers for a notoriously bad pollster.

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RS:

ARG is generally awful, and these polls look like they just picked the average of all the other polls coming out.. ;-)
If even ARG can't show the race closing - except in AZ and MT! - I'd love to see the "McCain internals" that apparently show even IA as a dead heat:
"McCain's polling director Bill McInturff meanwhile argued that current public polling showing Obama leads nationally were based on a historic underestimation of Republican support in the country."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081031/pl_afp/usvotemccaincampaign

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BrookLynda:

Uhm....BHO could be up by 3 in AZ within the Daily Kos MOE!

Yel-low! Yel-low! Yel-low! Yel-low!

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Nor Cal Train:

WOO HOO!!!!

Great to see Montana and Missouri so close and I agree... flip AZ yellow!!!!

And to think... the ads there are just now going to start.

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Northeastern Republican:

dont think thats true nw patrick. in 2000 al gore lost tennessee and still won more in the popular vote.

missouri really cant get any closer though. they say, as goes missouri goes the election. and ironically, it really can't get any closer i dont think.

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TeaLeaf96:

That +7% in Colorado is added encouragement, but I'm still waiting for another Pennsylvania poll! I'm not too worried about that Mason-Dixon result, but it would be nice to confirm that it was a statistical anamoly and not part of an overall trend; especially given the alarmist tone that Gov. Rendell seems to be striking.

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mysticlaker:

@NE

The country has changed. It might be more apporpriate to say so goes New Mexico, so goes the nation.

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bclintonk:

Obama +7 in CO is huge given that some 1.3 million people---probably a little over half of those registered---have already voted in CO.

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Nhoj:

these polls are surprisingly consistent with other pollsters for being ARG as rs said maybe they just used the averages of all the real pollsters and came up with these numbers :)

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Tzal:

Can someone explain to me why the don't weigh by party ID? These polls assume a more or less even R/D split.

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carl29:

For those worried about the "Bradley Effect," let me show you that with Obama what you see is what you get:

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Pre-election polls: Obama 38.3

Total vote: Obama 36.4 (-1.9)

*Edwards and Richardson also underperformed on election day as well, but has anybody talked about that?

Edward's pre-election polls 18.3% vs. 16.9% actual vote.

Richardson's pre-election polls 5.7% vs. 4.6%


FLORIDA

Pre-election polls: Obama 28.8%

Actual vote: Obama 33.0%


CALIFORNIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 42.3% (-1.7)


NEW YORK

Pre-election polls: Obama 36.3%

Actual vote: Obama 39.9% (+3.6)


NEW JERSEY

Pre-election polls: Obama 40.6

Actual vote: Obama 44% (+3.4)


MISSOURI

Pre-election polls: Obama 41.8%

Actual vote: Obama 49.2% (+7.4)


MASSACHUSSETS

Pre-election polls: Obama 40.7%

Actual vote: Obama 40.8% (+0.1)


ARIZONA

Pre-election polls: Obama 35.7%

Actual vote: Obama 41.9% (+6.2)


VIRGINIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 55%

Actual vote: Obama 63.6% (+8.6)


MARYLAND

Pre-election polls: Obama 55%

Actual vote: Obama 60% (+5)


WISCONSIN

Pre-election polls: Obama 46.3%

Actual vote: Obama 58.1% (+11.8)


OHIO

Pre-election polls: Obama 43%

Actual vote: Obama 44.1% (+1.1)


TEXAS

Pre-election polls: Obama 45.7%

Actual vote: Obama 47.4% (+1.7)


PENNSYLVANIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 43.4%

Actual vote: Obama 45.4% (+2)


INDIANA

Pre-election polls: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 49.3% (+5.3)


WEST VIRGINIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 24.7%

Actual vote: Obama 25.7% (+1)


OREGON

Pre-election polls: Obama 52.2%

Actual vote: Obama 58.2% (+6)


KENTUCKY

Pre-election polls: Obama 29.4%

Actual vote: Obama 29.9% (+0.5)

--------------------------------------

I purposely excluded places in the South because obviously no one could have anticipated the AA turnout, so I didn't think that it was fair :-)

I hope this chart could help you see that the Bradley Effect, white people lying about being for the black candidate but voting for the white, is just NO-TRUE these days.

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Basil:

TeaLeaf

Even the Mason-Dixon PA poll shows a widening of Obama's lead over its last poll. I noticed that when I clicked on the M-D graph points that looked so close.

McCain has to talk about something.

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Mount Monadnock:

ARG leans Republican. New Hampshire will be strong blue on Tuesday!

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carl29:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!

Larry Sabato, the election guru:

"Sabato Predicts Virginia Will Vote Democrat"

http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=9274556&nav=menu496_2_1

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

@Carl29 - THANK YOU! I've been saying for months that this whole Bradley Effect discussion is so ridiculous. NOTHING in the primaries indicated that any such effect existed, in fact the opposite. Obama routinely outperformed his pre-election polls. It really pisses me off that the MSM has not made that clear and instead have continued to obsess about a possible Bradley Effect. I think it's just their fallback of the neocons end up stealing the election in certain states

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Newman4:

It's amazing McCain can still look every research poll in the country right square in the eye and put out more bullcrap about comebacks. It's like being down 30 in the 4th quarter of a basketball game. Yeah, you COULD still win....if everyone on the other team fell down and sprained an ankle and then all the subs decided to play blindfolded. I would like to see McCain, being a known gambler, lay some change on who wins this thing. I bet he wouldn't.

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Newman4:

It's amazing McCain can still look every research poll in the country right square in the eye and put out more bullcrap about comebacks. It's like being down 30 in the 4th quarter of a basketball game. Yeah, you COULD still win....if everyone on the other team fell down and sprained an ankle and then all the subs decided to play blindfolded. I would like to see McCain, being a known gambler, lay some change on who wins this thing. I bet he wouldn't.

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