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ARG: CT, MD, MI, TN (9/16-19)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
~9/16-19/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Connecticut
Obama 54, McCain 39

Maryland
Obama 54, McCain 39

Michigan
Obama 48, McCain 46

Tennessee
McCain 59, Obama 36

 

Comments
KipTin:

Another Michigan poll showing how close it realy is.

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thoughtful:

With the Michigan poll its all down to how the undecided break:

Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama Barr Nader Undecided Other
Marist College 9/16-17/08 599 LV 43 52 - - 4 1
Big Ten 9/14-17/08 628 RV 44 48 - - 7 1
EPIC-MRA 9/14-17/08 602 LV 42 43 2 2 10 -

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Paul:

Compared to the 2004 CT exit poll, gender has the same split but this CT ARG poll samples 8% more Independents and 7% fewer Republicans. In 2004, according to the exit polls, Independents split 58-41 Kerry over Bush and in this CT ARG poll, Obama's advantage is only 4 points. Obama has been polling 15 points up in CT but the party ID and party results in this CT ARG poll suggests that additional analysis of other CT polls is needed.

Compared to the 2004 MD exit poll, gender has the same split but this MD ARG poll samples 7% more Democrats and 6% fewer Independents. Obama has been polling 15 points up in MD but the party ID suggests analysis of other MD polls are needed.

Compared to the 2004 MI exit poll, gender and party ID are essentially the same. This ARG Michigan poll looks OK.

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JFactor:

It's suprisingly close in Michigan. If Obama is to win this election he absolutely must carry both Michigan and Pennsylvania. And Minnesota and Wisconsin too for that matter. Obama really has to hope that 'Bradley effect' is just a myth...

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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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macsuk:

The poll in MI is ok however Kerry did not have a ground game like Obama, and McCain does not have one like Bush did in 2004

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Indiana4Obama:

The problem for Mccain in Michigan is that I haven't seen him leading in a single poll. It's been a 1-9 pt lead for Obama for as along as I can remember. Even w/ the Mccain bounce after the convention I don't remember a poll showing Michigan going for Mccain. +

Does he have a ceiling there that he's already reached? Perhaps. Will the economy make it difficult for Mccain to win Michigan? Probably. IT's not out of the question, and so much can change, but I'm more concerned right now about Minnesota and Wisconsin.

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damitajo1:

Why do these pollsters poll states like these? The only one worth a pre-election poll is Michigan.

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damitajo1:

indian4obama - mccain isn't supposed to be winning in michigan. mi has gone blue in every election beginning with '88.

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Indiana4Obama:

Michigan has been very close the last two elections. It makes sense that Mccain would try to get it. There's just been nothing in the poll trends that would suggest Mccain will get it. Now this could change.

Right now MN and NH seem like the Kerry states most in play for Mccain.

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carl29:

No doubt that MI is a battleground.

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