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ARG: FL, NE, NH, SC (9/13-15)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
9/13-15/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida
McCain 46, Obama 46
(August: McCain 47, Obama 46)

New Hampshire
McCain 48, Obama 45
(August: Obama 46, McCain 45)

Sen: Shaheen (D) 52, Sununu (R-i) 40
Gov: Lynch (D-i) 62, Kenney (R) 31

South Carolina
McCain 59, Obama 37

Nebraska
McCain 60, Obama 34

 

Comments
AmericaFirst:

With Obama's populist position, McCain has a real chance in NH.

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serpounce:

AmericaFirst, I think you're right on NH, the problem for McCain is that it might play the other way in the rest of the country as illustrated by the recent IN poll.

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Xenobion:

And with Obama's economic position he has a real chance in Florida who's been taking it hard.

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Mike_in_CA:

The NH poll is from BEFORE Obama took his populist position. Does your theory still hold?

(the poll is 9/13-9/15 (Sat-Mon)....

Ugh I hate when people make declarative statements on polls with disregard to actual facts.

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IndependentThinker:

FROM the nationwide NYT/CBS polls taken yesterday

"75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Mrs. Palin more to help him win the election, rather than because he thought that she was well-qualified to be president. By contrast, 31 percent said they thought that Mr. Obama picked Mr. Biden more to help him win the election, while 57 percent said it was because he thought Mr. Biden was well-qualified for the job.

This poll was the taken right after Mrs. Palin sat down for a series of high-profile interviews with Charles Gibson on ABC News. "

WOW! AMERICAN PEOPLE IS NOT THAT DUMP
'THIS COUNTRY FIRST' SLOGAN FROM MCCAIN IS CRAP, PEOPLE SEEMINGLY DON'T BUY IT

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mccainandpalinareliars:

Wow, I think Obama would trade NH for FL any day.


The country is finally waking up to the fact that Palin and McCain are a bunch of lying sacks of garbage. You know it is pretty bad when Karl Rove says you have gone too far.

Or maybe the phrase "President Palin" sends a cold chill up the spine of many Americans.

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RedSoxFan:

I will gladly give up NH if it brings IN and FL, I hope this is a good sign.

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change:

NH is gonna be tough for McCain. there is strong opposition to the the Iraq war, and obama's ground game is excellent there. furthermore, a cnn/time poll had obama up 51-46 among RV. for this election i think RV is far more accurate sample then LV- by all estimates they are expecting a historical turnout.

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IndependentThinker:

Sorry I meant "ARE NOT DUMB"

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1magine:

Both polls are outliers at the moment.

FL will go McCain in the end, and NH will go to BO. There are alot of Dems in Fl, like my mom who simply are too old to get their minds around BO as POTUS. I heard the comparison yesterday to the Jews wandering 40 years in the desert until the generation of slave minded people was lost. My parents generation must unfortunately be lost and my son's generation begin to vote before King's dream is realized in a place like Fl.

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ILGamecock:

Support your own candidates instead of tearing down the others

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RedSoxFan:

I have followed politics for the last couple of years, but nothing like this year I have really taken a huge interest this year. I do not completely understand all the polls and where they get the numbers can anyone help me understnad this more.

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ChuckInSeattle:

It's almost time to move Florida to "toss up yellow"!

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serpounce:

That's an interesting stat IndependentThinker, thank you. It seems that the problem with Palin is connected closely to her strength, the pick was gimicky. McCain has made a career out of an appearance of being a "straight talker," and this pick seems cynicial. Even if people actually like Palin the pick reflects poorly on McCain, and ultimately that's more important to voter's decisions than a likeable VP.

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NW Patrick:

McCain's in trouble. These polls are CLEARLY sliding to Obama. Up in Indiana in a recent local poll? NM ahead with a good margin. Winning VA? National #'s rebounding.

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Tybo:

mccain for president and 60 democratic senators!

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RaleighNC:

Finally another poll in SC. Will be nice to see my homestate go dark red.

NH poll is great news for McCain.

FL poll is not terrible new for McCain. If a tie is all Obama got from all the ad buys, I'm sure McCain will take that.

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NW Patrick:

Palin's starting to look like the JOKE that she is. COUNTRY 1st? Is McCain SERIOUS?

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NW Patrick:

Point here.. I'd like to see this same poll 9/16 on:)

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greg in charlotte:

Wow did you guys watch Sarah on Hannity last night .......she was incredible.....bye bye barry

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greg in charlotte:

Wow did you guys watch Sarah on Hannity last night .......she was incredible.....bye bye barry

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NW Patrick:

RaleighNC good to see South Carolina continue to vote against it's best interests and be the beacon of intollerance in the US? ROFL what a joke.

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serpounce:

^So good it needed to be posted twice!!!!

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NW Patrick:

greg in charlotte - Sarah on Hannity? WHO'S SARAH? Looks like YOUR MESSIAH is off the radar. ROFL She was given a softball. I doubt anyone watched it. Who cares. Blah blah blah.

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change:

i think florida will be tight, i mean 600 000 blacks didn't vote last election= that isn't gonna be the case this time! a lot of young voters and Hispanics that will go overwhelmingly for obama. and guys remember if obama is down a few percentage points or its a tie he will win because his ground game is serious business.

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greg in charlotte:

The recent polls that show Balack with a slim lead are polled by Libs on Libs.... means nothing. Indiana is red to the core.

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greg in charlotte:

I spent most of my life in Indianapolis and trust me the Indy Star is a liberal rag. The Indy Star knows exactly who to poll. There are no blacks in Indiana outside of Indianapolis. I Know.

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boomshak:

Well, these all look great for McCain. That being said, I don't have much faith in ARG.

Who knows, the MOE on these state polls is so high as to almost be meaningless.

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boomshak:

You know, I really wonder what all these young people who are voting for Obama will do when he raises tax rates on their employers to 56% and they all lose their jobs.

Let's see how long their enthusiasm for "change" lasts.

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greg in charlotte:

more people watch foxnews than any other channel. So Im sure plenty of people saw Sarah.

Sarah is sooooooo hot!!!!!!!

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boomshak:

@IndependentThinker:

When you quote a poll from two of the biggest partisans in the MSM (and that's saying a lot), you shed all credibility for intelligent thought.

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AmericaFirst:

They all look great for McCain except Florida. If he loses FL, it's over. If he gets bogged down trying to hold on to FL, it's over.

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Whitetower:

For those of you expecting a "record turnout" (and, by extension, believe that this will help Obama), keep in mind that in states such as MN and NH voter turnout is already very high -- well over 70% in MN, for example.

In states like these there really isn't any more room for increasing turnout, unless you're talking about rustling up winos.

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greg in charlotte:

On election day most Balack supporter will be hung over or not have gas money to get to the polls.

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RaleighNC:

NWPatrick...

You obviously know nothing about the great people of South Carolina. However, I implore you and your Obama buddies to keep accusing those who don't vote for Obama as "intolerent" or "racist". That's a great winning strategy.

In the future, I will not respond to lefty trolls. This is a site about polls, not emailed-from-headquarters talking points. There are many other forums for that.

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Stillow:

I give up.....way to many polls showing way to many different results, its all over the place. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say htis race is tied....50/50.....

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RS:

@greg in charlotte: your innate tendencies are borne out in your comments.
[Note to RaleighNC: that's a comment specific to g-i-c. And there are plenty of righty trolls as well. Will you respond to them, call them on it, or let them do their dirty work?]

@Whitetower: MN is safely D. NH is more of a toss-up. But increasing turnout is focused on states like VA, FL, NV...

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greg in charlotte:

We have 250 acres of family land in the low country of SC. I fish the back waters of Beaufort and love the culture of Charleston. Believe me when I say the great people of SC are no going to give Balack Obama the time of day.

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greg in charlotte:

@RS thanks for reminding me about my innate tendencies....I try to ram it up a bit more now that I know how easily your little feelings can be hurt

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Stillow:

Obama has no shot at any state i nthe south except FL....McCain has no shot in the Northeast except NH.......and that's just how it is people!
11 states is where this race will be faught.
McCain needs to hold: CO, NV, VA, FL, NM, OH
Obama needs to hold: NH, PA, MI, WI, MN

Those 11 states will decide the next president. If McCain holds all htose he wins with 274, he loses even one he has to make a pickup...if he loses NV, he better pick up NH....

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Snowspinner:

Why on Earth would you do a poll over a weekend like that?

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IndependentThinker:

@boomshak
Yeah! the same partisan MSM has McCain leading after the Palin pick, what do you make of that?
CBS News 09/05 - 09/07 655 RV 46 44 McCain +2

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KipTin:

Please explain "change" why you are expecting a "record turnout" and how that percentage (please state) coincides with registered voters rather than likely voters. This year is looking more like 2004 and not 1960-- Kennedy vs. Nixon (highest voter turnout in last 50 years at >60%).

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carl29:


I'm really starting to have second thoughts about Florida and Obama. I don't know but there is something about McCain spending money and time in the state and the Obama campaign aggresively investing money in it as well.

Today, a local news station has a poll out. It is a surveyUsa poll that has McCain leading Obama by 6 points in Florida. However, the demographics seem a little too skewed towards McCain-friendly people. C'mon...they have 27% of voters age 65+. It is true that Florida is the oldest state in the nation, but we don't get many old folks. In 2004 people over the age 65 were 19% of voters. So, a big extra for McCain in that poll since people over 65 go for him 58% vs. 38%.

But besides all the demographic breakdown, which I think could be pretty argueable, like the % of college grad vs. non-college and AA support for Obama as well. The most striking thing for me comes from the Central Florida area, the I-4 corridor, Obama and McCain are 48% vs. 48%, a complete tie with only 4% people undecided. No wonder why McCain was campaigning in that area on Monday. This is the ultimate swing area in the state, whoever wins there takes the state. In 2004 Kerry lost it to Bush by 57% to 42%.

*Remember that just time will tell. However, for what I'm reading from the McCain campaign, they found something in Florida to make them invest money in this state. What could their internal polls be showing? No idea guys.

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KipTin:

Hey... "change" when you invoke Hispanic vote in Florida it is split. Remember the Cuban Americans vote Republican. An academic statistician figured out even if Obama increased the "black" vote in Florida exponentially, that not enough of them existed to overtake the lead McCain has in the white vote. And it also appears that Obama is losing some support in the Jewish vote. And as for the youth vote... most college students in Florida are in state residents, so their will be no out-state college student voting surprise... and the youth still have to show up to vote. And in Florida they do not necessarily vote for Democrats.

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RS:

Something I just read, perhaps more appropriate for the IN/Selzer thread, but maybe applicable here as well, given the questions on turnout:
Apparently, over 500,000 voters have registered in Indiana since the beginning of this year alone.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/17/AR2008091703663_2.html?sid=ST2008091703731&s_pos=
(via FirstRead)
That's about the difference between Bush and Kerry. Definitely, not all new voters will vote for Obama, but it definitely makes Indiana competitive. Just like FL, VA, heck even NC.

@greg-in-charlotte: Go ahead, make my day.

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s.b.:

You know I'd like to address this ground game of Obama's is going to put him over the top stuff. The election is Nov 4th. IN many states McCain is coordinating with RNC officces and candidates offices and doubling or trippling his own offices only now. Sure his massive ad buys and what dozens of offices in places like MT have sifted polls for now, but all McCain has to do is get the regular Republican machine up and running. And it has always been better at turning out the vote than Democrats, always.

Also college kids from out of state bugging people will have much less effect than someone's neighbour speaking to them or driving them to the polls.

McCain's energizing of the Republican base with his pick of Palin and co-ordination of efforts with state and local candidates neutralizes this whole "Obama's ground game business"

McCain will also start spending money where he hasn't in October, so will the 527's. Obama's ground game in the primaries also involved not a little bit of voter intimidation and outright fraud. I assure you the big boys in the Republican party will not be allowing bogus registrations from Acorn in swing states to allow fraudulent votes.

The Democratic Party looked the other way when Obamabots intimdated little old ladies at caucuses. That ain't gonna happen Nov 4th. No Chicago style politics will be intimidating Republican voters, suppressing their votes or adding fraudlent ones to the voter rolls.

Obama's ground game will not be factor other than to maybe, and that's a big maybe, compete with the always superior Republican GOTV machine in some states.

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KipTin:

CNN reported that Obama had spent TEN times the amount of money on ads over McCain. Apparently, McCain was just holding on to his funds until after the conventions. Obama apparently was spending money faster in August than it was coming in until the last few days (suspended ads in several states and had an anti-Palin influx of contributions.) Obama has reduced his ad spending in Florida, and now McCain has increased his.

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GboroNC:

The numbers in NH are intersting. It seems McCain was not helped by Palin there (NH Republicans tend to be more anti-tax then social conservative), but it does not seem Obama has been able to capitalize on that at all. This is one of the few Kerry states I think McCain could definitly turn.

and

@ greg in charlotte

don't you think people could take your quote

"On election day most Balack supporter will be hung over or not have gas to get to the polls"

to be a bit...I don't know racist.

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carl29:

Yesterday, Obama's campaign director, Plouffe, sent an email/video saying that they are planning on spending almost $40M in Florida. Again, by the way both campaigns are behaving, it seems that something is moving: a)the Obama campaign is sensing that they are gaining ground with the ad buys b)the McCain campaign now feels that they have to play defense in the state

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s.b.:

Yep McCain is going to spend his money when it counts, October and the second half of Sept. Also being reported today, Obama isn't coordinating with any state offices or local candidates. He pays for all his office space doesn't piggy back ads, doesn't use the DNC money (well they have none) and doesn't bring local candidates to his rallies. That really doesn't sound like a fantastic ground game to me.

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faithhopelove:

The NE poll may seem like the least interesting of this bunch, but it does show Obama running slightly ahead of Kerry's showing there in 2004. Unfortunately, this poll does not show the numbers in the Omaha area, where Obama is competing for 1 electoral vote.

Today, Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) has called Palin unqualified to be president. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/18/quote_of_the_day.html

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JFactor:

New Hampshire might be more crucial than most people think. This might very well come down to the wire and all the electoral votes count then. Florida is still leaning to McCain and if McCain wins Ohio and Virginia (which is not all that unlikely) New Hampshire will be absolute gold in that scenario. Here's the analysis:

http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com/2008/09/obamas-four-roads-to-victory.html

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KipTin:

Look at the ARG Florida and NH polls this month compared to last month.

Florida: McCain gained one point. Still statistically tied. CNN is the other recent poll that has them tied. NO movement for Obama. That does not bode well for Obama.

New Hampshire: 4 point swing to McCain. Still statistically tied at 4% MOE, but shows movement to McCain. That looks better for McCain than Obama.

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faithhopelove:

This NH poll is already stale--it was in the field beginning on 9/13, before the big economic news. McCain may still be up 3 in NH; one or the other candidate will win NH by a very small margin, as in 2004.

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s.b.:

Gboro when someone talks about political supporters being too hungover to get to the polls, I think of college students. In fact in countries where their are real conventions, youth voters often lose close ballots for their candidates by sleeping in. There are people whose specific job is to make sure the yoouth delegates get out of bed and aren't in the bars when the votes happen.


This constant stream of racism accusations trotted out by the Obama team again in the last few days is really tedious and insulting.

I have march in many anti-racist rallies, have anti-racism tatoos, march against police forces targeting people of colour and travelled hundreds of miles to attend a rally Philidelphia in support of Mumia Abu Jamal, and I'm not voting for Obama.

Don't try to tell me I'm racist. The man isnt qualified for the job. Period end of story. The democrats have certainly lost enough presidential elections without a black man on the ticket. To tell people they are racist if they don't vote for him or that race is the only reason an unqualifed junior senator from the NE, with dubious associations and the most Liberal voting record inthe senate didnt win is because of racism is disgusting.

It has nothing to do with is race. Nor does my vote.

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KipTin:

Wow...faithhopelove.... last I looked it was John McCain (not Palin) who was running for President. Is Obamanation counting on an early demise of McCain? I say "early" considering he is in excellent health and his mother (and her twin sister) are still mentally and physically healthy at age 96.

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KipTin:

I knew it... Obamanation would call these polls "stale" or similar. 47 days to election day. Why not relax and call it as it is... too close to call. Then sit back and watch for any TREND lines.

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tjampel:

greg in charlotte:

"I spent most of my life in Indianapolis and trust me the Indy Star is a liberal rag. The Indy Star knows exactly who to poll. There are no blacks in Indiana outside of Indianapolis. I Know."

I guess all those people in

E Chicago (The racial makeup of the city was 36.54% White, 36.08% African American, 0.51% Native American, 0.20% Asian, 0.08% Pacific Islander, 23.98% from other races, and 2.60% from two or more races.)

and

Gary (Among U.S. cities with a population of 100,000 or more, Gary has the highest percentage of African-American residents (as of the 2000 U.S. census)

are white folk in blackface then

Pop stats courtesy of Wikipedia. Shooting from the hip is one thing; shooting from your ass is quite another

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GboroNC:

@S.B: Normally I would have assumed he meant college students and if he did that is my mistake. Thats why I said don't you think people could take it to be racist not that it was. The only reason I assumed AA is because he used the world "Balack" to qualify supporters. I also do not vote on race nor do I protest at all. In fact think most of the charges of racism, particularly those against Hillary were bunk.

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KipTin:

Yes... it is sad that DNC chair Howard Dean invested so much money at the state levels in building up the local Democratic organizaitons, and then Obama dismisses them to establish his own Chicago-style "grassroots." I do not see the point except to have more control and focus on his own election. In the meantime, local and state Democratic candidates will suffer. Obama now also controls the DNC funds for himself. Some Obama supporters have even asked Democratic Congress candidates to send part of their campaign fund to Obama. (Isn't it supposed to be the other way around?) Now the Obama campaign wants Hillary to cancel her campaigning for Senate candidates to help Obama.

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faithhopelove:

This poll is the second in 2 days that shows a tie in FL, despite the fact that they were taken as McCain visited the state. Obama visits FL Friday and Saturday; Bill Clinton visits the state about a week later.

The internal polling of the two campaigns must also show a close race there--otherwise, why the visits? Also, Obama's campaign yesterday announced that it has budgeted 39 million dollars on FL. It appears that Obama plans to compete for this state up until election day.

A new SUSA FL poll was conducted right after McCain's two-day visit, and finds him ahead there by 6 points. McCain earns this lead in part by winning 21% of the African-American vote and 23% of the Democratic vote.

No one will be surprised to learn that McCain is likely to win a larger percentage of FL African-Americans than Bush did in 2004 (or that fewer African-Americans will vote in FL than in 2004).

Nor will anyone be surprised to learn that Obama is likely to fare 14 points worse among Democrats than Kerry did in 2004.

McCain will also certainly benefit from record-high turnout among persons who are 65+ in FL, and from the fact that the gap between male and female voters there will narrow by half.

See the poll here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83889f62-d3ce-4176-a1a1-164a31cbf1e2

See the 2004 exit poll here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

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byronicgyro:

Let's face it, the Palin pick was big, but I think it was too soon (obviously he had to pick her by the convention, I just mean that the boost was too soon). McCain rode this huge wave of popularity after people first heard Palin, but the more they think about it, the more they hear about it, and the more SNL makes them laugh at it, the more they'll lose their love for her.

Yes, in the weeks after the convention, McCain caught up and possibly even pulled ahead. But now the numbers are moving back toward a more stable position with Obama in the lead. It's why Obama has been acting like he's still ten points ahead. When the dust clears, my guess is he will be again.

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