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ARG: IN, ND, OK, WA (9/15-18)

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
~9/15-18/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Indiana
McCain 47, Obama 44

North Dakota
McCain 52, Obama 43

Oklahoma
McCain 61, Obama 34

Washington
Obama 50, McCain 44

 

Comments
c y:

these polls make sense.

its close in indiana but Mccain will win it in November.

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change:

ya in these polls all obama needs to have his washington, and has that so good news!

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IndependentThinker:

What? R u kidding me?
only +3 for McCain in IN that Bush carried by +21 in 2004 and +16 in 2000, that must be the Nth poll suggesting a margin of 3-4 points for McCain.
My conclusion is Obama has definitely a shot there.By the way there are about 700,000 new voters in IN
I can't wait to be in front of my TV on Nov 4th night

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JFactor:

Indiana is suprisingly close. Sure, there's still an overwhelming chance of it going for McCain but still it's troubling for McCain to worry about Indiana.
_________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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cabos101:

McCain is def ahead in IN by 3 or so points. That being said, Obama did much better here in the primaries than the polls showed. Plus, with 500,000 new voters, I can see why Obama will campaign here until the end.

In '92, Clinton way overperformed here at the end as well.

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Stillow:

IN will end up being like OR, the other side can seem to always get close, but never enough to overtake. IN will be safe for the GOP...

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RaleighNC:

So is it 500,000 new voters or 750,000 new voters in IN? Y'all need to get your talking points in-line. And they certainly are not all democrats.

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boomshak:

Although I am a lifelong Republican, I have never been a fan of John McCain’s. My support for the ticket up till now has been due to Sarah Palin and a disdain for Obama.

Today, that all changed. As I watch McCain looking the best I have ever seen in a sharp black suite with blue and white tie standing in front of American flags, I found myself saying “wow” at least 10 times during his address and even “holy s***!” once or twice in sheer amazement. I mean, I felt like asking, “who is this man impersonating John McCain and can we keep him until Nov 4th!”

He was presidential. He was in command. He was focused. He exuded gravitas. It was like he had finally decided his position on this whole mess and it gave him new confidence. I also noticed that he reeled off fact after fact without a teleprompter.

I do believe that John McCain has found his voice.

A +++ performance for John today. For the first time, I can say that I am proud to support him for his sake alone.

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Shaft:

I live in Indiana and can tell you that there is genuine excitement about BO in this election cycle. The state has been trending democratic in congressional elections. With some support from the farmers/rural areas (Farm Bill!) and solid support from Indianapolis, Gary, Bloomington, Fort Wayne, Lafayette and Evansville, BO has a chance to change the state!
Go for BO!

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cabos101:

Raleigh:

It's 500,000+ - Check the WashPo.

And, yes, they are almost entirely Dems. There were more that voted in the primaries then the '04 general election.

For what it's worth. While Indiana doesn't have a large African American population, this group was also WELL underrepresented and unregistered.

That being said, IN is surely a stretch, but weird stuff happens. I could see Obama win IN and lose OH...

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boomshak:

Obama: "I will refrain from presenting a more detailed blue-print"

Yep, THAT'S the kind of BOLD leadership we need in Washington.

Meanwhile John McCain just laid out HIS plan soup to nuts this morning. Obama is letting McCain take ownership of this problem.

What Obama wants to do is see what the Fed does. If it works he will claim that this was his idea all along, if it fails, he will rail against it and say he never agreed.

The man is an empty suit.

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joecooper:

That's right, boomshak! He looked great in front of those flags, didn't he? In his suit? (No "e" on the end of "suit", but it's cool, I got you covered.) What I liked best was the way he was standing in front of those flags. I felt the same way you did: that a man standing in front of flags should be the president. Without a teleprompter. American flags, yeah! A +++! I couldn't have said it better!

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Justin:

Obama could possibly win Indiana, but if he does he's likely won Ohio as well. I really don't think Indiana is the state that's going to put him over 270.

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Stillow:

People, you're dreaming if you think Obama will carry IN!! If Obama were smart he would flood CO and NV...those are his two best chances for pickups outside IA and NM. He wins CO and NV, he wins. But he also better play serious defense in WI and PA.....he can't win if he loses either of those.

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bmcavan:

I'm working for Obama and helped organize the volunteers for this weekend and there are over 900 volunteers going to various spots in IN to register voters and canvas. IN is still a stretch but he's making it close without spending a dime in that state. Anyway you look at it - that is damn impressive.

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boomshak:

@joecooper,

Lol, you only wish that all McCain was doing was standing in front of flags. Unfortunately for Obama, McCain was laying out a clear vision for how to deal with the economic crisis while Obama punted.

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joecooper:

No, I'm with you, boomshak! I hate it when they punt! I like McCain's clear vision, just like you!

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marctx:

Now that Obama is using a teleprompter for every speech, maybe he can use one at the debates and Hillary can type his answers for him. He can't make an F-ing decision!

Obama: "I will refrain from presenting a more detailed blue-print"

joe?

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KipTin:

Obama has the same chance of winning Indiana as McCain has to win Washington. (BTW..each has 11 EV.)

--------------

Obama not presenting any "plan" alongside McCain having a definitive approach he will implement during his administration. McCain wins today.

Pundits yesterday also stated yesterday the Obama never did take a stand on AIG. Lots of words, but no statement.

Today, MSM is saying Obama's "let's come together" message is working rather than McCain's message that differentiated himself from Obama "without facts." Yup, I was watching MSNBC... the Obama cable network.

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joecooper:

I agree, marctx! Vision is better than punting, right guys? More vision! No punting! SHE GLOWS!

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DPartridge:

Cabos 101... here's the clip from the article at WashPo

"In the battleground state of Nevada, there are 400,000 more voters registered than four years ago. More than 500,000 have registered in Indiana since the beginning of the year, prompting Secretary of State Todd Rokita to say this could be "the biggest Election Day in our nation's history in terms of turnout."

Where did you get from that article that they're almost entirely Dem's?

The primary for the Dem's was particularly heavy because Repub's crossed over and voted for the first Woman or Black for President in the Dem primary.

While the registration count is significant, it's also important to note that there have been over 1 million voters PURGED from the Indiana voter rolls since 2004. The actual total voter count was only 23,000 greater in the 2008 primary then it was in the 2004 and 2006 election. Thats not the number who voted, just the total number eligible to vote.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak you are on crack. LOL McCain looked old. If you think the American people are going to be fooled again. It's very simple. The party in charge DESTROYED our economic system. Is McCain CHANGE or experience? He can't seem to make up his mind. Obama ALWAYS looks presidential, cool, calm, collected. Who would you rather have running the economic nightmare. Someone who RECENTLY admitted they "don't know much" about the economy or a HARVARD PROFESSOR? My God. LOL In addition, Obama is smart enough to surround himself with the best. In today's news conference, Robert Rubin, who served in the White House as Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, was right next to President Obama ready to work. Yes Robert Rubin, who helped reside over the top US ECONOMY UNDER CLINTON, #1 rated per FORBES Magazine for ANY president since WWII. In fact, per FORBES, the top 3 were ALL dems. How come EVERY DAMN time a Republican is in office the country is lefy with a crisis?

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NW Patrick:

Could anyone give me ONE accomplishment in 8 years by the Republicans? Just one. WAITING.

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RussTC3:

We can actually somewhat compare these to ARG polls from four years ago. Here are the comparisons:

Indiana (Bush/Kerry from 9/16-20, 2004)
McCain 44 (54)
Obama 47 (39)
+15 Bush vs. +3 McCain

North Dakota (Bush/Kerry from 9/9-12, 2004)
McCain 52 (62)
Obama 43 (33)
+29 Bush vs. +9 McCain

Oklahoma (Bush/Kerry from 9/15-20, 2004)
McCain 61 (55)
Obama 34 (38)
+27 Bush vs. +17 McCain

Washington (Kerry/Bush from 9/9-13, 2004)
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 44 (44)
+7 Kerry vs. +6 Obama

Obviously, despite being down in 3 of 4 states, this is overall, good news for Obama. Washington is safe and North Dakota is still very much a swing state.

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:


If Obama is cool, calm and collected, why does he constantly need a teleprompter? Did you see his speech in FL this morning? During the Q&A he had no idea what he was doing....he stumbles around with uhhhh's and ahhhh's and has no answers. The guy is not genuine. He's afraid of town hall's with McCain...and he will get stomped i nthe debates where McCain will have actual answers and Obama 2 minute replies will be filled with 90 seconds of uhhhh.

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Inkan1969:

Stillow:

There wasn't anything wrong with that press conference. I didn't think the uhh's and ahh's added up to a large enough number to be unusual. Obama spoke in a serious, businesslike tone appropriate to the situation. The press conference sounded like a press conference I'd expect to hear from a president. And no one cares anymore about the "town hall" snare trap that McCain tried to dupe Obama into. Thanks for lowering Obama's debate expectations, anyway.

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cinnamonape:

Funny what I got out of McCain's speech today is simply more confusion. For example he called for FEC Chair David Mason's head rather than the head of SEC Chair Christopher Cox (which he did yesterday).

I can understand why he might hate Mason, since the Bush appointee at the FEC said he felt that McCain accepting campaign contributions after using the claim that he was going to use Public Funding violated FEC regulations. In fact, Bush failed to reappoint Mason...after he said this.

But to confuse Mason with Cox?

And the fact is the President can't "fire" an already appointed head of the SEC. That insulates the position from political pressure. McCain is suggesting the Executive should have even more concentrated powers that Bush-Cheney took on. And now he apparently thinks that a bizarre form of Socialism...taking on the debts of private corporations and passing them to the public, is the way he wants to run things. Even the socialists in the Marxist states take over industries when they are healthy! So much for the "Anti-Regulator" that he used to be. But the lobbyists in his campaign seem to think that they now need bail-outs.

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I think Obama will get an upset win in Indiana! If Obama gets a large voter turnout, especially in Lake County on the Illinois border then he will win!

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy, and NO plan to get our country out of Iraq. As Hillary Clinton said, NO way, NO how, NO McCain and NO Palin!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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