Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

ARG: MN, MO, MT, NH, OH, TX & WV

Topics: PHome

American Research Group
600 likely voters in each state, margin of error +/-4
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Minnesota
Oct. 4-7: Obama 47, McCain 46
(9/20: Obama 48, McCain 47)

Missouri
Oct. 4-6: McCain 49, Obama 46
(9/15: McCain 50, Obama 45)

Montana
Oct. 6-8: McCain 50, Obama 45
(9/9: McCain 49, Obama 47)

New Hampshire
Oct. 6-8: Obama 52, McCain 43
(9/15: Obama 45, McCain 48)

Also:
Senate: Shaheen 51, Sununu 42
Governor: Lynch 65, Kenney 26

Ohio
Oct. 4-7: Obama 48, McCain 45
(9/13: Obama 44, McCain 50)

Texas
Oct 5-8: McCain 57, Obama 38
(9/16: McCain 57, Obama 36)

West Virginia
Oct. 4-8: Obama 50, McCain 42
(9/16: Obama 45, McCain 49)

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

ARG who?

____________________

Flashlight:

West Vir-what now?

____________________

CaliforniaIndie:

West Virginia -- am I reading that right??

____________________

CaliforniaIndie:

West Virginia -- am I reading that right??

____________________

change:

ARG is all over the place, this certainly isn't a reliable pollster! first of all Minesota is not that close, second obama is not winning in west virginia, and mccain is not winning in Missouri!

____________________

jamesia:

It's not that close in MN, and there's no way those WV numbers are right

____________________

Commander_King:

I live in West Virginia...and the fight is real. We are tired of this GOP garbage.

____________________

masselo:

West virginia is coming home baby!!! YES WE CAN

____________________

NW Patrick:

Virginia Republicans have not won a statewide race since Mark Warner, a former mobile phone company executive, captured the governorship for the Democrats in 2001 by emphasizing economic growth.

Is ANYONE surprised the DEMS will win VA leading to the white house? It's over folks.

____________________

Bonzi77:

These polls are all over the place. ARG sucks. I don't believe Obama is ahead 8 in West Virginia any more than I believe he's only up 1 in Minnesota. Plus, rationally there's no way he can be up in Ohio less than West Virgnia. Other than that, good work guys.

____________________

Iowa City:

Let's go Montana!

____________________

mrut:

Shaheen is kicking Sununu's tail all of a sudden in NH? I'm not sure...

____________________

Bonzi77:

@NW Patrick:

Bush won the state in 2004. I don't know if that counts as "Virginia Republican" though.

____________________

UNCrules:

The poll's West Virginia party ID:

Dem: 55
Rep: 35
Indep: 10

That doesn't seem quiite right...

____________________

freedomreigns:

Umm... WV? I'd like to see more polls before I believe that.

All the rest seem to be realistic. I happen to believe that Minnesota is Obama +4-6 but I can buy this poll if you take into account the MOE.


____________________

Mike_in_CA:

don't discount WV. He is probably not winning by 8%, but, remember, in 2000 nobody in their wildest dreams thought George Bush was going to win West Virginia (a state that even voted for Dukakis in 88!).

As for Minnesota, I guess it's just a really hard state to poll, because some polls put the race +10 Obama, and others show it close. Maybe its a rural-urban divide thing that is hard to poll?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

I wonder when the RNC will start focusing more on down-ticket races (Bob Dole style) since McCain seems to be getting taken to the woodshed now.

There is a lot of talk about a plurality in both the Senate and the House for the Dems. Barack seems to be getting people to come out and vote and that really seems like a good thing for Dems this time around.

____________________

NW Patrick:

GREAT article on the realignment of US politics. I think it's happening folks:) FINALLLY!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/a_realigning_election.html

____________________

zoom:

@NW Patrick

I agree that Virginia is in play and currently leaning Obama. ARG did NOT poll Virginia and the posts above are not referring to Virginia. That poll is of WEST Viginia which has been leaning McCain all year. If West Virginia is going Obama, Obama could exceed Clinton's electoral count of 270.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

@UNC: There are a lot of Democrats in WV who vote Republican. They are the old Dixiecrats, who were won over by Bush in 2000...

____________________

Commander_King:

I hope the RNC spends all of their money trying to win Illinois for McCain.

____________________

freedomreigns:

I happen to agree with AngryDwarf. The RNC has been and will continue to redirect some of its funds to the Senate races since the scary reality of the filibuster-proof 60 seats isn't such a fantasy any more.

____________________

mrut:

I think the WV look high, but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won it. He has barely been there to give the voters a chance. If he did drop by, his economic message--honed in nearby regions of western VA and eastern OH--would resonate with West Virginians. They need relief from Republican economic malpractice, too.

____________________

ErnieLynch:
____________________

Commander_King:

@ NW Patrick

West Virginia is a separate state from Virginia.

____________________

Batony:

Mark Warner was a conservative Dem, so is Jim Webb. Tim Kaine ran on Mark Warner's popularity. Don't compare statewide elections to national elections, you know better NW Patrick.

@Change

Obama is not leading in MO. At best he's tied.

____________________

couseydee:

West Va is going Obama and MN is trending back towards McCain? Something is fishy here. Could it be the low sample?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Commander I KNOW THAT. I didn't know we couldn't comment on OTHER state issues just because this poll has WV included in it? What's your point?

This blog entry struck me at politico.com

I have been out Registering Voters here in Oregon , our dead line is the 14th. We have seen a huge amount of Republicans changing there party affiliation to Independent. The morning after this last Debate , i had ( 7 ) very angry Republicans change there affiliation in two hours time. They had some pretty choice words for McCain/Palin , and stated they wouldn't vote for that ticket if they were the only ones on the Ballot. I got the feeling that when McCain made that statement in the Debate ( THAT ONE ) , it was the final straw for these people.

____________________

mrut:

OK, Montana just went pink. I'm getting dizzy (with happiness).

____________________

NHBlue:

"mrut: Shaheen is kicking Sununu's tail all of a sudden in NH? I'm not sure..."

All of a sudden? She's had 7% + lead all along.

____________________

faithhopelove:

In MN, ARG finds Obama ahead, but by just 1 point. This poll is the 4th in a row that has shown Obama ahead there; the other 3 gave Obama larger leads.

This poll was in the field before Tuesday's debate, which numerous polls and focus groups have indicated Obama won. Combine this fact with the fact that ARG does not call cell phones (which under-estimates Obama's support, conservatively, by 2%), and it becomes reasonable to think that Obama's lead in MN is a few points greater than this poll suggests.

McCain visits MN tomorrow; Michelle Obama visits MN Monday.

In MO, ARG shows McCain up 3 points. This poll was in the field entirely before Obama's winning debate, and entirely before Biden's 2-day, 4-trip tour of the state. PPP's poll of MO, to be released next week, should be more telling.

ARG finds only 87% of MO African-Americans voting for Obama; ultimately, Obama is likely to win at least 9 out of 10 African-Americans. ARG shows McCain's Republican base solidified in MO, meaning he has little room for growth; Obama has more room for growth, as his base support is less solid--something that may change before election day due to party loyalty alone.

In MT, ARG shows McCain up 5 points. This poll over-sampled Democrats. McCain is likely up more in this red state.

In NH, ARG finds Obama up 9 points. This poll is the 5th in a row that has shown Obama ahead in NH outside the margin of error. Despite this fact, Palin is scheduled to campaign there next week.

____________________

In the 2006 exit poll in West Virginia (for a U.S. Senate race), the Democratic margin over Republicans in party ID was 51-32.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/WV/S/01/epolls.0.html

____________________

Flashlight:

mrut:
OK, Montana just went pink. I'm getting dizzy (with happiness.)


Georgia's next.

____________________

NorseSoccer:

Re: Minnesota

I know the consensus might be that Minnesota is safe, but I am not so sure.

If it all comes down to undecided (underinformed) voters, it could break McCain's way. His ads here are on ALL the time and I just don't think it's in the bag.

As for WV, I don't think we should be so surprised to see a break towards Obama. As I said in a thread yesterday, all the states surrounding WV (excluding KY) are breaking Obama's way.

Many WV are registered Democrats but have voted Republican in the past few elections on moral/cultural issues. I think this economic turmoil (much as it has everywhere else) is trumping cultural. This makes a Obama win in WV that much probably to me.

It would be especially nice to see given the stereotypes that the state is too racist to break Obama's way.

____________________

nick-socal:

I have a hard time with all of these. But I've always said I don't know enough that the propeller heads know so I accept all polls. MN seems awfully close to me when no other polls show that. And WV seems rather suspect too.

____________________

political_junki:

This poll is a bit crazy.
Obama only +1 in MN then +8 in WV, come on...
This is nuts...
Maybe me and BOOM should start a polling agency, we would do a better job

____________________

maddiekat:

There is a reason now one uses ARG in their averages. They suck!

____________________

boomshak:

ARG is just weeird and always has been.

____________________

Trosen:

MN is not that close... trust me. And no way WV really goes blue. That poll is an anomoly. It wouldn't even surprise me if they just got the numers reversed.

____________________

katocat:

Maybe West Virginians are getting tired of bing the butt of jokes from McCain and Cheney.

____________________

Trosen:

McCain only +3 in men in WV? No way.. no chance. Ever been to WV???? Like outside of downtown Charleston? There is no way on God's green earth that is correct. I also think Montana is not as close as these polls would indicate.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Poll: 47 percent concerned McCain wouldn't finish first term.

They don't need to WORRY since he won't HAVE A 1st term! LOL

____________________

sunnymi:


The most important thing to remember about MN is that it has same day voter registration on the election day. Last 3-4 Presidential elections have seen about 20% or greater number of the voters registering on the election day. Many polls coming out of that state have shown McCain leading among the Indies. GOTV efforts will be paramount there.

____________________

sunnymi:

WV is a solidly Democratic state by party identification. If Obama can break 75% of the Dems (as he has gotten in this poll by ARG) and breaks even with the Independents (he actually won them in this poll) he can win the state even if McCain gets 90 -95% of the Republicans.

____________________

montana59801:

If McCain is only polling a few points higher than Obama in Montana by election day Obama wins. There are enough college students here to give Obama the win if it's close enough. This state is not as red as people assume it is.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

This pollster used the same sample size for MT (population 900,000) as it did for TX (pop 23,000,000 +). I'm not a statistician by any means but I don't think that's a sound method considering the immense population difference. Maybe I'm just critical because Rasmussen only showed Obama down 9 points in TX. The other polls seem erratic (word of the day) as well though.

____________________

political_junki:

Lets just ignore ARG from now on by agreement from right and left!

____________________

RaleighNC:

West Va. is full of racists, right Obama fans? You people disgust me. Calling them every name in the book when they were voting FOR Hillary and not against Obama in the primary. You all owe them an apology.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Are they trying to throw Todd Palin under bus? News organizations are reporting that Todd Palin applied pressure to Sarah Palin's staff to fire the Governor's ex-borther-in-law without her knowledge. Does anyone believe that her staff acted on these requests without her knowledge?

THIS IS MALARKY. IT's PURE HOGWASH. CAN ANYONE IN POLITICS IN THE STATE OF ALASKA PROVE THEMSELVES NOT TO BE A LIAR?

____________________

licinivs:

WV is actualy not that suprising, It follows the country wide trend, it just has´nt been polled enough.. Two democratic senators and a democratic governor, this IS a blue state. 8 out of the 12 latest elections WV has gone blue... They´re just coming to their senses again...

____________________

JCK:

montana,

With all due respect, please do not count on the "college kids" to put Obama over the top in any state.

"College kids" and "Cell phone only voters" were supposed to put Kerry over the top, despite the polls. That did not happen.

You saw the same thing during the primaries: The same college kids and cell phone only voters were supposed to put Obama over the top in states like PA, despite the polls. Again, that did not happen.

So, unless you can produce evidence (a) that college students are being under-polled; (b) that there are enough college students to render the polls suspect; and (c) that those same college students are actually going to vote, I wouldn't blindly assume the polls are missing a large chunk of voters.

____________________

Commander_King:

@RaleighNC

I LIVE in WV and there is alot of racists.But there is enough non-racists to carry the state for Obama.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:


Raleigh NC: "West Va. is full of racists, right Obama fans? You people disgust me."


What do you mean..."you people?"
Just kidding of course...but that was funny.

We weren't calling them racists, Ed Rendell was. If anything, his odd name and his unorthodox upbringing (for a politician), and the fact that he was not nearly as well-known or established as Senator Clinton, are probably what made a lot of working class Rust Belt people leery of him...and now that they've had more time to get to know the man I am not surprised that they are coming around to him. Especially after the sham of a campaign/smear-war that McPalin has been running.

____________________

steve1128:

Trosen:
I've not only been to WV - I grew up there. Don't forget that this is a state that voted for Dukakis and has two liberal Democratic senators. WV is hurting under the Bush economy. These numbers may be high for Obama now but they won't be in 3 weeks if Obama takes a swing through the state with Hillary at his side.

____________________

NorseSoccer:

The youth vote is going to be based on passion.

Kerry inspired no one.

Obama (whether you agree with him or not, like him or not) is a figure who inspires individuals.

Merely my opinion but this gives me reason to believe that the youth vote will be stronger than in the past few elections.

____________________

mrut:

@RaleighNC
I never thought of WV as full of racists. They don't know Obama because he didn't campaign there. Hillary did. That's why they voted for her. But they are very inclined to vote Dem even in better times. With this worldwide economic meltdown, I see them turning toss-up/light-blue if either Obama or Biden can squeeze in an appearance (like travelling from VA to OH).

@NWPatrick
I wonder if those angry Republicans you met ditched McCain because of his stupid housing buyout. I know a lot of Republicans who think he is senile for proposing it.

____________________

mysticlaker:

RAS Michigan:

Good guys: 56
Weird guys: 40

Send in Palin! Please.
----------------------------------

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

Obama leads McCain 56% to 40% in the survey taken Wednesday night. A month ago, the Democrat was ahead by seven points, 51% to 44%.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Exactly, you can't compare the Kerry and Obama campaigns. One was inept and never shot back when they needed to, the other has inspired millions of new voters to register, young people to campaign, and hundreds of thousands of people to make their first donation to a political campaign when they previously swore it was something they would never do (myself included)

____________________

cambridge blue:

COLOR MICHIGAN DARK BLUE, BABY!

____________________

political_junki:

Rassmussen:
Obama + 16 in MI
Also
Obama + 12 in PA
Obama + 8 in VA

All these "recent" polls prove Gallups +11 is correct. If Obama is up double digits in swing states, you can guess what his numbers are in more populated blue states like NY or CA

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

I guess pulling out of Michigan worked for McCain.

____________________

Connor:

@Batony

"Jim Webb is a conservative democrat."

Really? The dude who responded to Bush's state of the union about the gap in income, who railed against the corporate plutocracy in America? Who vocally spoke out against Iraq? Who wrote the new GI Bill that rightwingers found to be "too generous"?

Still waiting to find out what school/class you attend in which you and your classmates "laugh at the liberals" here. Genuinely curious.

____________________

drdr:

ARG is probably having major cell-phone only voter sampling issues. They show McCain ahead by 1 among voters under 50 and behind by 4 among voters over 50 years old. These numbers don't make any sense compared to national age-group samples.

There are many cell-phone only voters under 40 in Minnesota and ARG is probably not handling them correctly. Minnesota is well above average for cell-phone only voters.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Where_cellphone_onlys_matter.html

____________________

mrut:

I love the idea that the McCain campaign thinks New Hampshirites are going to LUV Palin. Why don't they send McCain to NH and Palin to...oh, almost any other state in the Union. She does NOT play well in NH.

____________________

maddiekat:

I guess the 20% of haters that Palin plays to isnt enough to land Magoo a victory!

____________________

Viperlord:

I think he was referring to Webb's pro-gun stance and hard line on illegal immigration. Moderate would be a better description.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Webb is a good example of a modern day Populist.

____________________

Timdicator:

According to ARG's polls to be released later today, Obama is up 12 in Texas, down 37 in California and tied in Kentucky.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Great point from Nate.

"You should continue to give top priority the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls as their ***large sample*** sizes make them less prone to this sort of result. (Referring to ARG #'s and Hotline.) We'll want to wait until the weekend before we can more fully evaluate the effects of the debate.

____________________

Connor:

@Jordan - San Marcos TX

I think you nailed it.

P.S. Nice to see a dude from San Marcos on here! Most underrated town (and university) in Texas!

____________________

laguna_b:

Dow heading towards another hard day...under 9000 and down about 350.....this is a story with legs, unfortunately we may not have legs.....
I think a steady hand at the tiller will the order of the day....if we don't see universal double digits by next week....across the board....I will be surprised....

____________________

mysticlaker:

Levi should have learned to pull out...I guess he can learn something from Mr. Magoo...

____________________

JCK:

@drdr,

Do we know for sure that ARG does not call cell phones?

Some pollsters do.

____________________

Viperlord:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Webb There's his Wikipedia article, judge for yourself.

____________________

Batony:

@Connor:

Yes Jim Webb is a conservative Dem.

____________________

Viperlord:

[Sarcasm] What a excellent and informative rebuttal. [/sarcasm] He's more conservative than most Dems for sure, but I'd describe him as a moderate.

____________________

sempervirens:

Do you think Cheney got the Executive Order about preparing for transition?

Oops! I forgot! He's outside the Executive!

____________________

laguna_b:

Dear Sarah,

Give me and my 401k some hope.....smile at me again and tell me that we just need to get the Joe Six packs and hockey Moms to work togetehr and we can overcome the multi $trillion problem we have....I really need your help Sarah....we are going under! sub 9000 and dropping!

____________________

political_junki:

Rassmussen:
Obama + 16 in MI
Also
Obama + 12 in PA
Obama + 8 in VA

All these "recent" polls prove Gallups +11 is correct. If Obama is up double digits in swing states, you can guess what his numbers are in more populated blue states like NY or CA

____________________

drdr:

Also it is difficult to believe that Obama has a bigger lead in OH compared to MN.

I believe ARG used automated surveys (not live interviewers) and therefore they can't survey cellphones.

Also, as sunnymi points out, same day registration can destroy your likely voter model. The StarTribune and MPR polls which have more experience with the effects of same-day registration on likely voter models show Obama +14, +18. These are probably high and I would guess the pollster.com average of Obama +6 will be close to the actual total on Nov. 4.

____________________

Connor:

@Batony

Sorry dude: wrong. He's a populist. Protectionists who rail against corporate plutocracy, who pass legislation like the new GI Bill (which rightwingers fought and fought until the PR nightmare) are not "conservative."

I know you right-wingers want to claim the dude. But don't worry, y'all got manly men like...Lindsey Graham! And charismatic badasses like...Mitch McConnell! Who WOULDN'T want to **** McConnell?!

Still haven't answered my question, Batony: what school/class do you attend in which you and your classmates "laugh at the pollster.com liberals"?

Dying to know!

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"Nice to see a dude from San Marcos on here! Most underrated town (and university) in Texas!"

Yes! Exactly.

____________________

muckinello:

I can picture a sea of blue on Nov. 4. McCain has no hope but to pull out on all Kerry states and try to defend the other battelground but with so many fronts it's very unlikely. Wait for Uncle Fester to get even more negative under the mantra "if one has to lose, he may as well lose also his dignity in the process!"

____________________

Viperlord:

Don't forget, they've got tough, maverick John McCain! Oh, forgot that he's ditched that image, NVM.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Does someone know why RCP cherrypicks the ARG WV poll among all the above ones?

____________________

logic001:

I always thought Montana made more sense as a blue state, since its natural beauty (and the obvious and horrifying damage from mining and overlogging) would seem to make Montanans resonate with the Democrat emphasis on conservation, clean water, etc. As a typical overeducated California liberal, I see no problem with Montanans owning a gun or two. Heck, if I lived on a Montana ranch, I'd probably have a beautifully maintained Winchester myself. We can all get along under the big blue tent.

____________________

Hoosier:

Now they are sending Barbie to NH??? A state like NH, in which educated independents hold the key to victory???? A state where they just pimp-slapped the entire Republican Party in 2006??

McSlime needs to go himself. Oh, that's right, he's a coward who will let his running mate lob the verbal garbage while he hides behind her.

I'd love to see some anti-Palin protests along her route. Send her to states that can appreciate her racist demagoguery.

____________________

KipTin:

Quit dismissing legitimate polls based on where you think they out to be. These are samples of 600 people with MOE +4. Apply that to these polls and you will see that they are not that far out of line with other polls as are other polls within similar range based on their sampling errors.

____________________

Trosen:

logic001, that's just the fallacy of it. Obama and the Dems could care less about the rancher in Montana hunting caribou. (Are there caribou in MT?) It's about assault rifles on the streets of New Orleans, Miami, Chicago, etc. But don't get me started on the NRA crap. But on the subject, still don't think Rassmussen is a right-leaning operation? (someone was saying that earlier) The site is plastered with McCain-Palin and NRA crap. I mean if they can't even twist things to help McCain's chances look better, God help him.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

@Logic001

That's a valid statement about MT but something to consider is that the interior west states, especially rural states such as MT, are hotbeds for distrust of the Federal Government, and that in the past 30 years has very much favored Republicans. The social and political mentality of states like Montana, Idaho, Nevada and others has had much more in common with Texas than, say, California or Washington (state). That is beginning to change though as a conservation/environmentalist ethic is seen less as a tool for the Federal Government to tell you what to do with your land and more the way things should be. This is the case even among otherwise conservative evangelicals.
But, for the last 20 years it's no surprise to me that a spirit of libertarian independence and distrust of the government has made the interior west a sea of red.

____________________

political_junki:

@KipTin:
These polls are actually in Obama's favor and we are dismissing them. No partisanship here just common sense.

By the way stock down 4% again!
Way to go Bush, right? In **** up to knees...

____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

WV will never go Blue...not for Obama! Hillary cleaned his clock there and people just don't trust him!

MN is trending back to McCain!

MO will go red..guarantee it!

____________________

Batony:

ARG uses live interviews.

McCain lost MI in the primaries, so he figured there is no need to waste time there.

SurveyUSA had McCain plus 1 in MN just as recently as Friday. So maybe MN is a lot closer than we think. McCain is there tomorrow...who knows.

____________________

Trosen:

Excellent use of exclamation points! Let me try!

McCain has no chance in hell of winning MN!

Yes WV will stay red! (duh! =D)

MO will probably go red too!

McCain is still getting his a$$ kicked all over the map!

____________________

KipTin:

I am not a member of NRA (but my mother is)... NRA has millions of members who do not think their 2nd amendment rights are "crap." The people of Western USA are very much into their independence and that includes firearms.

Note: The rest of America (inc. Democrats) depend on the natural resources of the West. Reduce your needs/wants and you can have less resource exploitation in the West.

____________________

Batony:

RCP just posted ARG#s....interesting.

____________________

mysticlaker:

I agree with @Trosen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

McCain is getting a whupping!!!!!!!!!

____________________

Connor:

@Batony

Still haven't answered my question, Batony: what school/class do you attend in which you and your classmates "laugh at the pollster.com liberals"?

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"Note: The rest of America (inc. Democrats) depend on the natural resources of the West. Reduce your needs/wants and you can have less resource exploitation in the West."

It's not the Democrats who are chanting "Drill, baby, drill!"

The DOW is now down 5.46% or 500 points.

____________________

Batony:

@Connor:

I believe you have me confused with another poster. I never said that. I wish I was back in school...those were the days. Go back and address the right person.

Pollster.com liberals? I don't talk that way....lol

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

The Dow is now down 554 points. The Bush/GOP economic disaster continues.

____________________

laguna_b:

Dow 650 points and dying...we are all in this together.....

____________________

political_junki:

It is 700 points down now.
The **** that neo-cons brought on this country.

P.S. I would love to see McShame or his little sidekick talk about Ayres in this climate now!!

____________________

marctx:

TODAY IN THE TOWN HALL:

The next question came from a black McCain supporter...He then implored McCain to go after Barack Obama at the next debate and asked him to raise ACORN and Reverend Wright. "I am begging you, sir," he said, as the crowd stood and applauded.

"Yes, I'll do that," McCain responded

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

The Dow is down 650 points.

____________________

KipTin:

Over 60% of Americans support drilling. And that includes DEMOCRATS.

You also do seem to understand that the exploitation of resources is directly related to America's high standard of living. Your attitude reveals some kind of disconnect between ignorant consumers and providers of materials for their consumption.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@sotonightthatimightsee:

I remember you're the as*hole that was taking a cheap shot at me by accusing me of cherrypicking while I was only announcing a just-released Gallup poll
Now unlike most of people on this blog (democrats and Republicans alike boom included) who are trashing the ARG MN poll you're based on it to corroborate a supposed trending back of MN to McCain. Surprisingly you didn't even bother taking into account the 3 last MN polls that show an average of +13 for Obama
link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html
So according to you aside from this ARG poll, a n average of +13 in MN is a trending back, right?
You're making a fool of yourself
Stop grasping at straws

____________________

laguna_b:

At the current rate of oil consumption in the USA, we will deplete our COMPLETE reserves in well under 5 years if we only burn our own oil....alternatives NOW, and a hell of a lot of them can save us and make us rich as well.....renewables!

Even nuclear has but about 40 years to run out....shortages to start in 4-6 years....

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"BUT WHAT ABOUT REVEREND WRIGHT!"

Obama doesn't even have to say that McPalin and the GOP are out of touch anymore. It's obvious to anyone that has more than one brain cell.

____________________

KipTin:

It is NOT common sense to dismiss statistically-based polls. Such "common sense" ignores the factually-based concepts of probability.

____________________

ndirish11:

West Virginia will not vote for a black person. McCain will win there by at least 20%, people lie to pollsters when it comes to race.

____________________

laguna_b:

@kipTin

I am shocked at your attitude given your support for alternatives...
"You also do seem to understand that the exploitation of resources is directly related to America's high standard of living. Your attitude reveals some kind of disconnect between ignorant consumers and providers of materials for their consumption."

I thought you knew better....

____________________

mac7396:

No worries, repubs. It looks like Texas is safe.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Here's a major reason that the numbers may have swung so dramatically in West Virginia. They actually have been under-reported in terms of home and farm foreclosures and stand at the TOP, not near the middle of the numbers.

And it has escalated in the last few months.

http://www.wvpubcast.org/newsarticle.aspx?id=4862

I should also point out that the main increases in Obama's support in Virginia and North Carolina have come from the areas that were once Republican strongholds. In Virginia Obamas numbers are remaining strong and steady in the North, but they have surged in the South and especially the West...which is precisely being hit with the same flood of foreclosures facing West Virginians.

It's the turnaround in these areas that are solidifying his leads in Virginia. Also something similar is happening in North Carolina.

I would hope that Obama takes at least two campaign stops in W. Virginia, and start sending Hillary and Biden in there as well.


____________________

Batony:

@Ndirish11:


Just hit the ball out of the park when it comes to all these polls. That's why I am cautioning Obama supporters not to get overly excited.

____________________

ndirish11:
____________________

laguna_b:

@cinnamonape

That is a poor strategy in that we don't need the EVs for WV. and there is no Senate race of concern there. If you are above 270 for sure you start working that Senate 60 number to make a bulletproof administration.
Hit Mitch McConnell, Dole, Chamblis....Coleman....THEN you kick Leiberman out!

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

@KipTin

You said:

"You also do seem to understand that the exploitation of resources is directly related to America's high standard of living. Your attitude reveals some kind of disconnect between ignorant consumers and providers of materials for their consumption."

I say:

That's not true I understand it very well. I'm currently getting my masters in Environmental Management actually. Just like John McCain, you can't score points by falsely inferring that the person you're talking to "doesn't understand."

____________________

KipTin:

What does my support for alternative energy have to do with my statement regarding "resource" consumption? Do you really think that alternative energy means the end of mining and logging and drilling?

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

No it means the end of over-consumption of, and over-reliance on fossil fuels and fuels extracted from the planet. If we do not make a serious move toward ending our dependence on foreign **and domestic** oil we will be in dire straits down the road.

____________________

IMind:

I don't know why people are surprised WV is going to a Democrat when the economy is hitting the skids... even a black democrat. It's hugely democrat... has strong unions.... and miners have been completely screwed over by the Bush administration. It's a lot easier to "vote against your interest" when you're getting by.... a lot hard when the crap hits the fan... look at the trend lines for WV... the polling has been sparse but it's been moving in only one direction.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Hi KipTin!

Are you still mad at me? Or are you mad at someone else for mocking your sad republican views?

But you are right. You shouldn't throw away polls. That is why 538 is genius - he weights their accuracy.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

ARG stinks...It's proven. But if you know how much they stink, you can get value from them.

Dow down 6%....I think I'll have a drink now. I'll drink to the days of Clinton, and the upcoming days of Obama.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"West Virginia will not vote for a black person. McCain will win there by at least 20%, people lie to pollsters when it comes to race."

This is the Bradley Effect myth. In fact there was no evidence that people significantly "lied" to the pollsters about supporting a black and then switched their vote.

What happened in California was that they stated that they hadn't decided yet. The "Undeclareds" swung significantly to Deukmejian...at far higher proportions than those that stated a choice.

Furthermore, many people refused to respond to exit pollers that called the race for Bradley by a slim margin. Apparently those non-respondants were the ones who voted disproportionately for the "Duke". As well, Bradley failed to campaign in the Conservative Central Valley...and almost all the "Undecideds" there went for Deukmejian...especially after Reagan made campaign appearances there. This was 1982, after all.

If Obama approaches 50% in any state there will likely not be reversals. It's the ones who are undecided that might be expressing the "Bradley Effect".

____________________

laguna_b:

@KipTin

>>Do you really think that alternative energy means the end of mining and logging and drilling?

All those are limited and sparse resources....unlike Alternatives which are vastly richer in supply and never run out. Encouraging drilling to BURN one of the most versatile minerals we have, and in short supply, only encourages people NOT to make the moves and pay the costs for the electrification of everything energy.

Look around you and what do you see? Everything that is NOT wood, stone or metal is made of or by OIL! Once it is gone, replacements will be very expensive.....use it wisely. Surely don't BURN it in stupid SUVs.

FIVE YEARS or less supply in the USA and peak production this year world wide....the end is near....once we start using it again like before yo will see $150...$200 and up...

____________________

laguna_b:

Another stone on the Bush legacy....actually 678 of them....DOW points that is....

____________________

1magine:

These polls suck. Just throw out the lot of them. As one poster noted above - they might as well say O+6 in TX. MN has long since been locked down as has WI and NH. Sydney does nopt know wherew to go or what to do. He and the campaign knows its over. There is nothing left to do but to keep on fighting until 11/4.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

If anyone in the GOP still isn't worried about their chances, this little nugget from fivethirtyeight might help give a dose of reality:

Changes This Week

In Obama's Favor
# Delaware: Strong Obama -> Solid Obama
# Florida: Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
# Georgia: Strong McCain -> Mod McCain
# Iowa: Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
# Kentucky: Solid McCain -> Strong McCain
# Michigan: Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
# Minnesota: Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
# Mississippi: Strong McCain -> Mod McCain
# Missouri: Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
# Nevada: Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
# New Hampshire: Weak Obama -> Mod Obama
# New Jersey: Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
# North Carolina: Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
# North Dakota: Solid McCain -> Strong McCain
# Ohio: Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
# Oregon: Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
# South Dakota: Solid McCain -> Strong McCain
# Texas: Solid McCain -> Strong McCain
# Virginia: Weak McCain -> Weak Obama
# Washington: Mod Obama -> Strong Obama
# Wisconsin: Weak Obama -> Mod Obama

In McCain's Favor
# None

____________________

voteforamerica:

McCain is Not Racist, as Far as I Know

Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.

____________________

JCK:

Nate Silver's regression for WV has Obama leading by 3.5 points. So it's not crazy to think that he might actually have a lead in that state.

____________________

NW Patrick:

The dow drops to it's lowest point in 5 years and John Sydney McCain is STILL talking about Ayers. Country 1st? McCain is a TRAITOR. A disgusting man.

____________________

nick-socal:

Wow. Just wow. Are we even still talking about a recession? A recession implies mildness.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Jordan

WOW! More and more I feel a landslide coming....I wish I were younger to survive the whole cycle back into prosperity AND have a lot of years to enjoy it.....this is going to be a long haul.

In a way, the most basic fundamentls of the country have not changed, just the juice to run it. They drained the tank dry, even the surplus from Clinton! We have to refill the tank....I would have given us ZERO possibilities of that under McCain as he went from erratic plan to erratic plan then died and left us the with the brain dead one.

____________________

laguna_b:

@nick-socal

You don't even want to consider depression....my parents went through it and were permanently scarred by the experience. I still feel it from what they passed on...

We live in a much faster and more innovative age....with the technology we have for transitioning to sustainable living we have no lack of jobs and opportunities which is why we need a leader like Obama with a near messianic bully pulpit....to drive it!

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

"Well, the stock market is in shambles...but I'd really like to keep taking about Ayers..."

Signed, John McCain

____________________

KipTin:

FYI... I am NOT a Republican. My views are not ideological, but rather pragmatic.

____________________

maddiekat:

John McCain is a COWARD!!

____________________

KipTin:

My parents lived through the Depression and were not "scarred," but then again their families already lived frugally, and they grew and hunted their own food. The experience of the Depression is why my parents continued their frugal lifestyle and were able to retire comfortably with NO debt.

____________________

marctx:

Obama is a TRAITOR for telling our enemies that American troops are "bombing civilians".

Also, why does Obama and his followers try to use the economy as a shield against tough questions he MUST answer if he wants to be president.

Obama on the sidelines "talking" will not do anything to stop the bleeding that Obama and the media are contributing to. Obama's disgusting scare the sh@t out of everybody to get elected tactics makes him a TRAITOR.

____________________

NW Patrick:

This post from a blogger on a conservative site today, really hit home with me. I have Republican family members which echo this:

"I was a registered Republican for 32 years and watched the party move from a moderate party which believed in fiscal responsibility and sensible foreign policy to a moralistic party with an aggresive foreign policy and no regard for fiscal responsibility.

I changed my registration when W and Jeb stuck their big noses into the Terri Schiavo situation.

I am afraid the Republican Party is too far gone to ever return to its roots. I do not anticipate ever rejoining it."

____________________

nick-socal:

@laguna: First off, are you in LB? Good on ya if you are. But of course I don't want to consider a depression. But I think the idea that we'll have a recession (implying mildness) is out the window. Ok don't call it a depression and just call it a deep recession. Whatever you want. But I can't see at this point how were not going to have pretty significant contraction in GDP when you're talking about such huge sums of wealth being evaporated on a daily basis.

____________________

jenn:

How you going to fund your entitlements, Obama?

There are no capital gains for you to tax?

____________________

Batony:

My question for a lot of people on who are quoting the Dow...do you know what that actually means when the Dow drops?

____________________

KipTin:

Hmmm... Interesting. They just showed McCain's townhall meeting where the crowd urged him to attack Obama on Wright and Ayers, and John responded that he hears them, but that we cannot take our attention away from the economy.

____________________

NW Patrick:

MARCTX could you seriously just hide in TX and not visit this site anymore? Your right wing BUT BAG TALKING POINTS are HARDLY the mood of the American electorate right now. Your party is literally HISTORY without some SERIOUS changes and looking on the inside. Freakin' NUT CASES. The verdict is in and it's not on your side.

____________________

RussTC3:

The capital gains tax will NOT go up for any family making less than $250,000.

____________________

makersmark:

the second I get too excited and optimistic about our country I see a video like this and it brings me down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itEucdhf4Us

____________________

KipTin:

I wish I was in a position like Warren Buffet right now. He is getting some really good deals. If you got the money, stocks in select companies are a real bargain.
--------

I meant to raise this issue earlier. Why is Obama dissing McCain's home mortgage plan, even after Obama and his supporters claimed to have proposed it first? Is it only a good idea when it comes from Obama? And not Hillary or McCain?

____________________

nick-socal:

The stock market is down 20% this week. That's just this week. There are more than a couple similarities between what is happening now and what happened between 1929 and 1939. I'm not advocating this. But it's reality. And it's time our potential next presidents start talking about the tough things instead of arguing who is less of an American. It's pathetic.

____________________

Jacob S:

Anyone see that the Dow is below 9,000? I am afraid to even glance at my portfolio, right now (it could be mostly gone). This is really getting serious.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Jenn I hope you take the time to watch and enjoy Obama's PRIME TIME TV SPECIAL ON CBS Oct. 29th. He is in negotiations with FOX, NBC, and ABC as well. Ya see Jenn, this is what happens when MILLIONS of people want a candidate and believe in his message of change, we give money. We, the PEOPLE are going to take back our Nation from the right wing IDIOTS.

____________________

laguna_b:

@nick-socal

I used to have a house in Laguna but sold it years ago...well before that I took the handle and just haven't changed it. I actually live in the Los Gatos Mntns outside Silicon valley and like it a lot better here....

But to your point, I agree about GDP. But I have dedicated myself in Alternaive Energy & Clean Tech which are the products and technology that are our planets future. Like I said, we need a massive dedication to grow this industry and I think Obama can do it. We have lost 8 precious years and are paying for it....geez, imagine if this meltdown happenned in late Novemeber after Mccain squeeked by, talk about a setting for a revolution...

Optimisitically my MOST Republican freinds agree with me on this....now is the time to work together.

BTW, I registered Republican at 18 and still am.....though I am deeply shamed by what my party became and NEVER vote for them....even ones I like!

____________________

Batony:

Maybe WV is trending back to the Democrats...Palin is in WVa Sunday. Interesting. That NRA endorsement came right on time for McCain.

____________________

mac7396:

Did anyone see the McCain camp's brilliant response to the growing economic crisis, and huge losses on wall street today?

"Ayers"

Wow, now I'm voting for McCain.

____________________

Batony:

Sorry...She will be in rural Ohio on Sunday, NOT WV...SORRY.

____________________

laguna_b:

From the Starship Straight Talk Express:

"DAMN IT JIM THE PAGE WON'T TURN!"

____________________

mrut:

Pay no attention to ndirish11 and his/her bogus analysis of the West Virginian electorate and the so-called Bradley effect. ndirish11 is a Russian who knows no more about democracy than about West Virginia. If he/she were so wise, Russia would have a flourishing democracy right now instead of a dictatorship.

____________________

Cane Cattivo:

@marctx:
"TODAY IN THE TOWN HALL:

The next question came from a black McCain supporter...He then implored McCain to go after Barack Obama at the next debate and asked him to raise ACORN and Reverend Wright. "I am begging you, sir," he said, as the crowd stood and applauded.

"Yes, I'll do that," McCain responded"

TOMORROW AT ATEH TOWN HALL

The next question came from a white Obama supporter...He suggested to respectfully address Senator McCain at the next debate and ask him to raise McCain unfaithfulness to her previous wife and how he abandoned her when she became "unattractive" and whether that demonstrate character. "I am just suggesting you, sir," he said, as the crowd remained reflectively silent.

"No, I won't do that," Obama responded. The country needs constructive discussion about the financial crisis, job security, and health insurance"

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony

Actually Tina Fey will be filling in for her in WV!

____________________

Batony:

Whoa!!...That's was a low blow at Russia. Damn you people play rough...lol

____________________

RussTC3:

Heh, good one, laguna_b. :)

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

Election officials are tossing out ballots, surprise, surprise...but only in swing states?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The article is provisional in its assessment, but I can assure you that these actions are the result of GOP lawsuits against elections boards in these states...

In my own state (Wisconsin), our own Attorney General is suing the elections boards, claiming that voter registration information has to match 2006 DOT records...which puts people like myself, who have moved in the last two years, or who have hyphenated names (DOT records to not recognize hyphens) in an awkward position, I registered over a month ago and it has yet to update (I'm a bit suspicious that mine has been tossed already)...

It's time to start bringing this to the attention of your local media, wherever you may be!

____________________

Texas_Democrat:

As a Texan, I don't believe McCain is +19 in Texas. I don't have any delusions about Obama winning Texas, but it's definately not that large a gap. Southern Texas is strongly Democratic, and the Democrats in Northern Texas are slowly coming out from where ever they were hiding and becoming a vocal movement.

More importantly, I don't want to fall into a false sense of security, but I think Obama is almost certainly going to win the presidency. It's time for Democrats to start focusing on the Senate. Come on Dems! A filibuster-proof majority is within reach!

____________________

jenn:

Why would I watch or much less "enjoy" his message if I don't believe in it. I certainly don't need any more propaganda.

The only relevant speech/message he has made was back in 2004. I thought he had promise after hearing that speech. But after I've seen how he stands on the issues and with whom he has associated- not interested. Blowing hot air.

Can't have the top 5% picking up the slack for everyone else. Share and share alike? Does Communism really work? Don't think so.

____________________

Connor:

@marctx

"Obama is a TRAITOR for telling our enemies that American troops are "bombing civilians"."

We ARE bombing civilians, you stupid ****.

____________________

mirrorball:

KipTin: Because McCain's campaign made some changes to the plan overnight that make it now sound like he'd put the cost on taxpayers. Whether that's true or not, I don't know yet. Still need to read up a little more. But here's what Obama had to say on the subject today:

"Well, the idea wasn’t particularly new. The authority for the Secretary of Treasury to buy and renegotiate bad mortgages is part of the financial rescue plan we just passed. In fact, I proposed it myself because, if it’s properly done and limited in scope, such buybacks can be one tool to help innocent homeowners stay in their homes on terms they can afford.

But I also said at the time that this should not be a vehicle to reward banks and lending institutions that recklessly wrote bad loans. It should not be a bailout for the high-rolling real estate speculators who took those loans to make a quick buck.

We have to act to fix our broken economy and restore the credit markets. But taxpayers shouldn’t be asked to pick up the tab for the very folks who helped create this crisis.

And that’s the problem with Senator McCain’s risky idea. On Tuesday night, his campaign said that he would ask the banks to absorb some of the cost by selling the bad mortgages to the government at a discount. Then, by Wednesday morning, he’d changed his mind and was proposing to bail out banks and lenders with taxpayer money."

Senator McCain actually wants the government to pay the full face value of mortgages on the books, even though they’re not worth that much anymore. It’s a plan that would guarantee that American taxpayers lose by handing over $300 billion to underwrite the kind of greed and irresponsibility on Wall Street that got us into this mess.

____________________

ericsp28:

Obama just bought 30 minutes of prime time airtime on CBS for Oct 29. His campaign is still in talks with Fox and NBC.

http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-primetime.html

____________________

atreides:

I live in Texas and I can guarantee you that McCain won't win by 19 pts. I was thinking more like 5pts with outside chance of high single digits loss for Obama. AA's are 10% and Latino's are at least a third. He'll get at least 30% of the white vote. With 90% of AA's (pts), 70% of Latinos (21 pts) and 35% of the white vote (17 pts), that's 47%. My Latino assumption may be a little high but not by much. So I have no idea how ARG came up with this number.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Florida:

Good guys 50
Cowards 47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Barack Obama now leads John McCain 50% to 47% in Florida, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey in the state.

This is the second straight October poll to show Obama with a modest advantage in Florida. That’s quite a change from September when five statewide polls found McCain ahead or tied each time

____________________

laguna_b:

@VonnegutIce9

Republicans are experts at holding on to power and pathetic at governing...this is just one more instance....

____________________

mrut:

@Batony

Telling the truth is not a low blow. Russia has NO independent press; it all works for the prime minister (or whatever position Putin chooses to hold) and the security services. The Russian media is uniformly anti-American, like its predecessor the Soviet Union was. Russian TV will only do stories about the US that characterize it as a failed or failing state. They LUV stories about American racism. If they can find footage of one racist, they will turn out a story that implies that every American is that way. Russia=USSR.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Jenn

Like Mccain, his minisuragates can argue the issues, they have to make up straw-dogs to attack:

"Can't have the top 5% picking up the slack for everyone else. Share and share alike? Does Communism really work? Don't think so."

Well Jenn, neither do Obama and I so I guess we are in agreement.....you wanna vote for him now or continue losing capitalism as it fails and gets socialized like most of the financial industry?

____________________

jenn:

What have you done for your own state/city, Obama?

10.25% sales tax in Chicago- highest in the nation

Declining public schools- some of the worst in the country. The middle class residents are leaving.

More people killed in Chicago during the last 6 months than killed in Iraq.


"Yes, we can." is the slogan. No,you can't.

____________________

nick-socal:

@laguna: Cool. That is an equally nice area.

I think you're right about alternative energy and fuel sources. And I agree that Obama is the one to do it. McCain's whole answer is to just drill for more oil.

I'm 35 and I registered Republican when I turned 18. Starting with 1992 through the 2000 election I voted Republican. In 2004 I voted for Kerry and changed my party registration to Democrat in 2003. I can't ever see voting for a Republican again.

____________________

laguna_b:

@jenn

So Obama is responsible for all the ills of Chicago as well? They pale in comparison to what the republicans have done to the country in any case....and there you have culpability!

____________________

Frankie:

WV is 2:1 Democrat, if Democrats vote Democrat, Democrats win. Maybe that is what were are seeing? Although that is like a 12 point swing from a previous poll that had McCain up by 4. News travels slow in WV, maybe it is all starting to culminate as Hillary has been in the state twice campaigning for Obama.

____________________

nick-socal:

"More people killed in Chicago during the last 6 months than killed in Iraq."

That is patently false.

____________________

mrut:

@Frankie

When was Hillary in WV for Obama? This could easily have tipped them toward him. She has been a good surrogate for him. Bill was good in FL last week.

____________________

jenn:

See how the Dems have contributed to the current crisis? Oh no, Fannie and Freddie are just fine they said. Why do we want to have them controlling our money again?

Of course, in the private sector they would have just been fired.

____________________

mrut:

I wish Obama would take a bus trip from VA-WVA-OH, but his schedule has probably been planned down to the minute up to 4 November.

____________________

jenn:

prove that's it's false. nick

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Just released

Now
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 43 48 Obama +5

two weeks ago
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/17 - 09/20 600 LV 45 45 Tie

____________________

mrut:

@jenn

Fannie and Freddie were private, not state-owned.

____________________

jenn:

Why didn't the Dems stop them? They have the majority.

____________________

UpperLeft:

@Jenn:

I don't understand what contribution to the country you or anybody makes by simply attacking Obama, attacking Chicago, or attacking liberals.

Let's hear YOUR plan to get the economy back on track. We're all ears.

____________________

nick-socal:

No Jenn you prove that more people were killed in Chicago than Iraq in the last six months. You're the one who said it, not me.

____________________

Connor:

@jenn

Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow the right has officially gone mad. Independents don't like this! You guys are doing yourselves in! LOL Keep going!:)

____________________

muckinello:

Ras has Obama +1 in NC and +3 in FL, McCain +7 in IN.
I think that McCain raise in IN is good since it will be compensated by is fall in other battleground states and I never believed in IN blue anyway (not because of the very nice Dems there..).
If the nationwide lead is 4-5 points, that means that if McCain advances in say IN and MO he will have to decline in other states.. hence: too many fires at once!

____________________

jenn:

If he can't help Chicago, how can he help this country?

mrut- No,I meant some of the Democrat congressmen would have been fired in the private sector.

____________________

IndependentThinker:


IndependentThinker:

Just released North Carolina poll

Now
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV 43 48 Obama +5

two weeks ago
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/17 - 09/20 600 LV 45 45 Tie

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow RAS shows improvement for Obama in FL. The news just gets better and better!

____________________

[nemesis]:

Nice, Troopergate continues... Can't wait to see the report tomorrow.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

@ignorant Jenn:

"Chicago has experienced a decline in overall crime since the 1990s.[50] Murders in the city peaked first in 1974, with 970 murders when the city's population was over three million people (resulting in a murder rate of around 29 per 100,000), and again in 1992 with 943 murders, resulting in a murder rate of 34 per 100,000.[51] After adopting crime-fighting techniques recommended by Los Angeles and New York City Police Departments in 2004,[52] Chicago recorded 448 homicides, the lowest total since 1965 (15.65 per 100,000.) Chicago's homicide tally remained steady throughout 2005, 2006, and 2007 with 449, 452, and 435 respectively, and the overall crime rate in 2006 continued the downward trend that has taken place since the early 1990s.[53]"

"The Iraq Body Count (IBC) figure of 80,419 to 87,834 civilian deaths reported in English-language media (including Arabic media translated into English) up to 10 January 2008 includes civilian deaths due to coalition and insurgent military action, sectarian violence and increased criminal violence. The IBC site states: "it should be noted that many deaths will likely go unreported or unrecorded by officials and media."[12] For the 4th year of the war between 20 March 2006 and 16 March 2007 the Iraq Body Count reported approximately 26,540 civilian deaths.[13]

The United Nations reported that 34,452 violent deaths occurred in 2006, based on data from morgues, hospitals, and municipal authorities across Iraq.[14]"

____________________

Connor:

@jenn

Oh man, more killed in Chicago than in Iraq! And when challenged, you don't back it up, but ask someone to prove otherwise!

I know that you think saying stupid racist **** against Obama will help you find a "real man" in West Virginia/Arkansas/wherever-the-****-you're-from to help raise your brood, but it ain't helping you here.

Take your sadness elsewhere.

If you're going to stay and post such bull****, such racist, hate-filled ****, such LIES, I think you should be forced to tell us more about who you are. That way, you're not just a coward writing **** on the internet that otherwise you'd be too afraid to say publicly.

So, go on, Fat Jenn, who are you? Back up the lies. Put your name under them.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

@jenn

...oh wait, I forgot, only U.S. soldiers are human beings...

jenn subscribes to Stalin's view of death counts: "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic."

____________________

mrut:

@Jenn

Sober up before you sit down to the keyboard and start flinging around assertions. You're getting erratic. From 1 May to 30 Sept 2008 there were 2961 documented violent deaths as a consequence of the war in Iraq. I think we would have heard about it if that many people were shot/blown up in Chicago.

____________________

mirrorball:

Re: Chicago

Here's all you need to know. It's not exactly for the past six months, but still illustrative, I think.

According to Chicago PD
Jan-Aug 2008: 339 homicides

According to Iraqi government figures (Reuters report via Huffington Post. I'm trying to find a more direct source):

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/01/iraq-civilian-deaths-at-h_n_94414.html

In March 2008, there were 923 civilians killed in Iraq, a 31% increase from February.

... to recap

339 in Chicago for Jan-Aug
923 in Iraq for just March

____________________

muckinello:

Next up, my prediction, look for CO, NV and OH to turn light blue (leabing Obama). The only toss-up states at the election will be MO, FL, WV and IN. I think FL and WV will go blue and MO and IN will go red.
LANDSLIDE!

____________________

chgo1:

jenn:

What have you done for your own state/city, Obama?

10.25% sales tax in Chicago- highest in the nation

Declining public schools- some of the worst in the country. The middle class residents are leaving.

More people killed in Chicago during the last 6 months than killed in Iraq.


"Yes, we can." is the slogan. No,you can'

I have read you inane rantings for what seems like years now. First of all, I am willing to bet you have NEVER been to Chicago. Secondly, the sales tax (which is absurdly high) was passed in the last year and JUST went into effect. A small poly science lesson for you, when someone is a US Senator, they generally are not dealing with county sales tax issues.

The schools public schools in Chicago are not good, and never have been. The industrial base in the city has evaporated as the jobs went overseas. The tax base is less and the schools suffer as a result. I am sure, in your convoluted logic, Obama is responsible for that as well.

Chicago has the problems of the 3rd largest city in the US. I don't see this changing anytime soon. I am still trying to figure out how Obama is responsible for this...

Using your logic, my understanding is that Arizona has a HUGE illegal immigration problem...why hasn't McCain solved that??? Oh that's right, he sponsored a bill re: immigration and then voted against it.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

@Jenn

Such blatant disregard for human life can only lead me to believe that you are a Communist or a Fascist...or a Republican...oh, wait, I forgot, Republicans are both of those combined!

____________________

mrut:

@Connor

Lay off West Virginia.

____________________

sunnymi:

jenn, you said "What have you done for your own state/city, Obama? Declining public schools- some of the worst in the country."

Well Mr.Jenn I have some news for you. While I do agree that IL has less than acceptable ranking in the public school system (it stands 35th out of 50). It actually did improve to get into the top 25 towards the end of Senator Obama's term as a state Senator of IL.

Would you like to know which state stands the "dead last" for both 2006 and 2007?
It is none other the state Senator John McCain has represented for the last 26 years. It fell from 44th ranking in 2002-2003 to 50th in 2005.

____________________

Connor:

@mrut

Why? I don't think even my West Virginian friends would begrudge me for attacking West Virginia. I'm from Texas (though I don't live there anymore). Texas deserves its **** reputation so please, hurl away! ****, dude, we unleashed Bush on the country! Even after he totally ****ed our state!

I'm still not over all the West Virginian man-on-the-street interviews from the primaries.

____________________

I think Obama and Biden have a good chance to win West Virginia. West Virginia use to vote Democrat in Presidential elections. West Virginia has a lot more Democrats then Republicans.

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. A Republican is a Republican. I don't trust McCain and Palin.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

DecaturMark:

New Ras polls

Florida Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48 Obama +1
Michigan Obama 56, McCain 40 Obama +16
New Jersey Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8
Indiana McCain 50, Obama 43 McCain +7

____________________

lilyogini:

I think we won't be hearing any more from Jenn.

But that's how the Republicans seem to be talking lately. Just throwing out lies; throwing massive hand-fulls of **** against the wall hoping some will stick.

But I think--this time--the American people can see that it is just **** and nothing else.

____________________

sunnymi:


Rasmussen says "Obama is supported by 87% of Democrats and holds a fifteen point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 85% or Republicans."

The last NVRA report in FL from August says Dems hold a 4 point lead in party ID. Unless this difference has been brought to a tie there is no way Obama can be leading by only 3 while leading the Indies by +15.

____________________

mrut:

@Connor

The press had chosen its story line for the Clinton-Obama race and those "man-on-the-street" interviews were culled to fill out the story line. Under no circumstances were we to see footage of reasonable, intelligent West Virginians.

West Virginians will vote for Obama if he makes an appearance and tells them what he plans to do for them and for the country. He can win the state. The only question is whether or not he has time to make the stop. I'm sure his schedule is filled up for the next 4 weeks.

____________________

mrut:

@Connor

By the way, Texas is a beautiful state. I lived in San Antonio for a few years. Don't sell your state short. George W. Idiot wasn't born there; Ann Richards was. She was very smart and funny. I wish she were still around.

____________________

maddiekat:

CNN Ohio Poll Obama up by 4

____________________

Connor:

@mrut

I went to college in San Antonio (Trinity). I love parts of Texas (Austin and all the hill country, especially Boerne), though so much of the state is just totally hopeless. And Houston and Dallas really creep me out.

Ann Richards was great. Had she won re-election, she might have been our first female president.

____________________

NW Patrick:

God the smile on my face Nov. 4th knowing racists everywhere are BOILING. It's gonna feel soooo damn good.

____________________

fed:

I think that Ohio number is a poll of polls

____________________

Connor:

@mrut

I forgot Denton. Denton's great!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Here's a link to that NC poll:

http://www.nccivitas.org/files/Oct1-PresCTs.pdf

The crosstabs are fascinating. I wonder when McCain goes to campaign there?

____________________

mrut:

@Connor

Just one more word in defense of your birth-state. If we are going to blame states for the morons they've birthed, we would have to blame Connecticut for W. Who does that? Think about it. CT also gave us Lieberfascist, voting for him despite his primary loss. It gave prestigious university degrees (Yale) to both Bush imbeciles, father and son.

But we beat up on the southern state, not because it's right but because it's easier. After all, all southerners are dumb, right?

____________________

riverrun:

Don’t be too quick to write off West Virginia. Sure, ARG has a record of results that jump all over, and +8% is scarcely credible. But an Obama win is definitely feasible.

At presidential level, WV voted reliably Dem until the Bush years: Humphrey 1968, Carter 1976 and 1980, Dukakis (!) 1988 and Clinton (1992 & 1996).

At state level, WV is consistently Democratic, so the party ID numbers are distinctly believable:

The incumbent Dem Governor & Senator are cruising to re-election, state senate and state house have comfortable Dem majorities.

Early in this campaign, Republican strategists expressed surprise that the Dems did not list WV in their top 18 battlegrounds. they clkearky believed WV could be vulnerable.

Next door, Virginia is a hotly contested race, so there is some overspill from VA activity into WV.

Also, Nate Silver on 538 has been projecting a close race in WV for some time. The only reason the polls have not shown this earlier, is that there have been so few: Obama's major gains have been in the last few weeks, with frequently polled states showing strong gains. It is not surprising that WV should also be showing strong movement to Obama. Even if +8% is unlikely, a more modest Obama lead is definitely plausible.

____________________

Viperlord:

I live in VA, what can we blame VA for?

____________________

maddiekat:

Rasmussen is playing games when it comes to Florida and NC. The Florida numbers do not make sense!

____________________

zotz:

"I live in VA, what can we blame VA for?"

Answer: Communism!

____________________

mrut:

@Viperlord

Oh, God. What can we blame VA for? There isn't space here.

VA is responsible for the best and the worst in our country--sometimes in the same person. (See Jefferson, Thomas.) The capital of the Confederacy gave us our first African American governor. It is the home of the American version of the Enlightenment and of the "peculiar institution." It is the birthplace of an incredible number of statesmen and of the most unworkable state on record. (See again the Confederacy.)

So maybe the only short answer is to say that whenever you are of two minds about something or feeling irresolvably ambivalent, Virginia is probably somehow responsible for it.

Boy they sure are shutting people up about them now, though. Nice-looking polls.

____________________

NW Patrick:

mrut yes it's wrong to VOTE against your best interests. Not only are did red states RE-elect Bush but SOME of them are now giving him a third term.

____________________

maddiekat:

The McCain camp is going to have something to talk about tomorrow...Troopergate!

____________________

jenn:

I was actually talking about American deaths in Iraq. 230 estimate from icasualties.org. Actually less now than in Afghanistan.

Funny how you get called a racist when you oppose Obama. I live in a "mixed" culture urban neighborhood. We all get along even though some are voting for McCain and some are voting for Obama.

I'm not a coward. He is running for President, so these issues about him must be addressed.

____________________

maddiekat:

jenn

You mean issues like these?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14436.html

____________________

mysticlaker:

I live in Mass...

What can I be blamed for?

I know, just a kick-ass set of sports team right now, the first state with gay marriage, a black governor, and the damn best fried clams in the world!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@mrut
I find your assessment of Russia and therefore Russians simplistic at best. Russians who post on this site most likely reside in the USA, and most likely ESCAPED the tyranny you describe.

Surviving and escaping the monolithic regime does tend to open one's eyes, if only due to the blindingly bright contrast. While some will forever remain set on their ways no matter what, it is not fair to impugn the entire nation that still occupies over 1/10 of the planet's habitable crust because of one person with whom you happen to disagree.

It'd be like me dismissing anything that comes from Texas because of dubya. Or marctx. Dangerous territory, amigo. Sorry.

And speaking of jenn, I admire all of you who try to pose reasonable researched opinions to provoke her or marctx into a civil discourse. They are trolls and civil methods do not work with trolls. Trolls must be trolled back and trolled back HARDER than the trolls. Escalate, not reason. They only understand escalation. IMHO, of course.

____________________

jenn:

Looks like the league he joined was primarily for fighting against Communism and that they tried to purge out some of the negative elements.
I don't have a problem with it.

Just sour grapes response to charges of Obama's association with Bill Ayers who bombed the Pentagon. Hopefully, McCain will ask Obama about this at the next debate. Not sure why any politician would have worked with Ayers.

____________________

MTforObama:

It is looking good for Obama in MT. What the polls omit is that there are five presidential candidates in MT. Ron Paul is very strong here, getting 22% of the primary vote. Barr will siphon some off McCain also. I suspect that 5%
of McCain's lead will disappear at the polls.
MT has one of the highest cell phone only voters in the country. It will be very close. I give Obama a slight edge in MT.

____________________

zotz:

"More people killed in Chicago during the last months than killed in Iraq."

"I was actually talking about American deaths in Iraq."

Of course jenn wouldn't see Iraqis as people. This is exactly the kind of racism that led to the death of more than 2 million Vietnamese in the 1960s. It is a kind of militarised racism where the enemy population is no longer concidered human. It is no coincidence that jenn would favor John McCain.

"I hate the gooks," McCain said yesterday in response to a question from reporters aboard his campaign bus. "I will hate them as long as I live."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2000/02/18/MN32194.DTL


____________________

mrut:

@mysticlaker

What can MA be blamed for? Too easy: John Fitzgerald Kerry (or whatever his middle name actually is).

The guy who would have kicked W's butt if only he had run on something other than "Look at my profile; I'm presidential."

Don't get me started. "I was for it before I was against it," "If I knew in 2002 what I know now, I still would have voted for the Iraq War," etc.

OK. I'm popping a vein. I'll stop there.

____________________

jenn:

Funny also how you get called a "troll" for having differing opinions. Oh yeah, some other real mature guy on this site called me "fat". Oh, that's hilarious. Not fat by the way.

I thought Democrats were the party of "tolerance". Oh, only if you check your opinion at the door.

____________________

mrut:

@MNLatteLiberal

My criticism was directed entirely at the Russian state. That poster was not a Russian from the US. Did you click on the link and see what garbage was being posted? That was Russian TV, a "portrait" of West Virginia meant for non-US consumption. Pure propaganda. That's all the Russian media serves up these days. Anyone who doesn't gets jailed or killed. There is still one independent radio station in Russia, and it is barely tolerated.

____________________

mysticlaker:

McCain won't ask Obama about it because he is a coward...A big coward...If he thinks it's an issue bring up with him.

Oh, I forget he is A BIG COWARD. A WUS. A McCHICKEN....

____________________

maddiekat:

jenn

In all honesty are you really afraid of Obama and his past relationships? In all honesty McCain and Palin scare the hell out of me, much more so then Bush and Cheney!

____________________

NW Patrick:

I can see Russia from my HOUSE!

____________________

TJIRISH34:

I am in Indiana and did anyone see that rally in Indianapolis Wednesday? It was raining, muddy and weekday at noon. Fire marshalls said there might have been 20,000 people there. The Indiana Obama campaign workers were actually nervous about attendace considering the time and weather. The Charlotte NBA Bobcats were practicing at the state fair fieldhouse for an exhibition game with the Indiana Pacers later Wed night. The players went to the rally and All Star PG Chris Paul told a political reporter he was happy to be witnessing history in the making. Pics at www.indystar.com show the story. Remember Obama had lost the Pennsylvania primary and the rural white voters issue had become a big issue. So during the primary Obama changed strategy and started hosting small voter town hall meetings, picnics etc... Trying to let voters get to know him. Even doing house to house campaigning and playing basketball with kids in small towns. He has been in Indiana 46 times. McCain twice. Mccain better come to Indiana before Nov 4th or he will lose it. Polls show race tied.

____________________

jenn:

I'm just making a point about how everyone is blaming Bush for the deaths of American soldiers. Now Obama wants to send them into Afghanistan.


More Americans are dying within our cities than over in Iraq.


By the way, Obama is talking about the high cost of the war in Iraq. Sending troops to Afghanistan isn't free.

____________________

maddiekat:
____________________

Chester:

This is all very civil.

I have a question for whoever wants, posed by Nate (538) earlier today :
WHAT IS OBAMA'S CEILING ?

and if he's starting to break through to the Clinton Dems in the Apps, what would it be then?

____________________

nick-socal:

@jenn: You said "I'm just making a point about how everyone is blaming Bush for the deaths of American soldiers. Now Obama wants to send them into Afghanistan."

No you're not. You said more people died in Chicago than in Iraq in the last 6 months. In fact you're not saying anything.

____________________

mrut:

@TJIRISH34

You make the point that McCain has to actually campaign in a state (IN) if he wants to win it (except for, say, Idaho and Utah).

I have been mystified (as have many others here) about how McCain expects to win if he doesn't show up. VA has been teetering toward Obama for a couple of weeks, yet McCain has shown up only once. Obama has been there many times. Why does McCain allow himself to be so severely out-campaigned?

Is he tired? Is he tied to Palin (for fear of low crowds--that didn't stop Biden)?

I've heard him repeat something a few times--"people know me." I wonder if he just thinks that everyone already knows what they need to know about him. I'm truly curious about the low-intensity campaigning he has done.

____________________

maddiekat:

jenn

Or better yet this. There is a pattern here. Obama has class and they don't.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/09/alaska-supreme-court-wont-halt-palin-probe/#comments

____________________

KipTin:

Pollster has latest Rasmussen polls posted to their trend charts. Except for Michigan, McCain moved up/Obama lost points--

•Florida: Obama 50/McCain 47 (Change Obama -4)

•North Carolina: Obama 49/McCain 48 (Obama -2)

•Michigan: Obama 56/McCain 40 (Change Obama +9)

•New Jersey: Obama 50/McCain 42 (Change Obama -5)

•Indiana: McCain 50/Obama 43 (Change McCain +5).

____________________

mrut:

@Jenn

If it makes you feel better, I'm fat.

I'm also a troll--an actual one. I live under a bridge and eat all goats who cannot solve my riddles.

But at least I make sense.

____________________

hopingforchange:

this is scary. what could be more irresponsible than stoking up the bigotry and prejudices of a crowd, or more like it - a mob.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/10/09/balz/

____________________

ErnieLynch:

jenn:

I'm just making a point about how everyone is blaming Bush for the deaths of American soldiers. Now Obama wants to send them into Afghanistan.


They are elready in Afghanistan, SFBs.

____________________

maddiekat:

KipTin

And Rasmssen appears twice a week with Hannity. Before you make an ass out of yourself check out the internals in Florida. The internals in Florida make this poll a joke!

____________________

political_junki:

@KipTin:
One state at a time :-)
3 weeks ago MI and PA were swing now solid blue.
The way things are going with VA Obama doesnt need FL at all and he can stretch McShame and NC.
IN? I think it is just a show of power by Obama to pretend he can win :-) Anyway if Obama sliding in deep deep red IN or NC makes you feel any better, by all means, feel free to feel better!

____________________

nick-socal:

Reading the financial pages it's funny to see these 'pundits' and 'experts' try and calm people's 'panic'. As if what's happening right now is just part of some normal, albeit severe, business cycle. No, people aren't panicking and bailing out of stocks. They (the non Wall Street types) understand that when your government has to step in with hundreds of billions of dollars and trillions of dollars in paper to try and play Whack-A-Mole it is pretty clear we're in a new realm and not a typical business cycle.

Once again, the average Main Street American knows more than the supposed Wall Street and Washington experts.

____________________

miatch:

THAT ONE's gonna be my president:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmOUP0U5PNk

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Finally, Sarah Palin's argument that the Alaska legislature doesn't have the right to investigate the firing of a public employee that was confirmed by the legislature was deemed BOGUS. The McCain campaign's attempt to move the abuse of power inquiry to the state's personnel board, once again giving Gov. Palin a venue to abuse her power as Governor, was a waste of taxpayers money.

The legislatures report will be released on FRIDAY. At which time, we can gain a little insight into Troopergate and Governor Palin's reasons for trying to cover up this whole sordid affair.

Details here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081009/ap_on_el_pr/palin_troopergate;_ylt=ArBhknXyGgaMEpvSkrQUvUSs0NUE

____________________

KipTin:

Well, maddiecat... I believe you are the real "ass" for making such stupid accusations. Did you really have a problem with Obama's lead in the previous Rasmussen poll of Florida (Obama 52/McCain 45)?
----------

Hey, political_junki... I only reported the polls and has nothing to do with my feelings.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@mrut,
I have no inside information on where ndirish11 is from or as to his/her gender. You need to be aware of a couple of things:
1) many Eastern Europeans are able to get Russian/EU television in the US via satellite/dish network(s)
2) some of the stations are not based in Russia (some are from Ukraine, etc.) and do their own programming.
So, I would not draw any conclusions as to ndirish11's whereabouts solely based on the youtube link provided.

Secondly, there is nothing in the link provided that I have not heard on CNN, MSNBC, NBC and so on (I do not watch Faux News, so I cannot attest to them) during the KY, WV and other Appalachian state primaries. John Stewart, in fact, has made a point of some of the dumb ass racist statements made by the voters in those states during the primaries.

It should be mentioned that the racist opinions expressed by the primary voters in those states were VOLUNTEERED, and were not in response to any specific or relevant questions. That was those folks musing extemporaneously. One particular opinion that I will quote here (the rest are too racist, involve Osama, Hussein and other McCain talking points.) is that "I voted for Hillary because she is a better man". Now that's funny on its face.

Unless I am missing something here, I stand by my original point. A minor point, granted, but I am sick of immigrants being attacked on this site only because they are new citizens. Those attacks typically come from the marctx' and jenns of this world, and I'd prefer for our side to take the higher road.

Having said that, I have nothing against calling West Virginians hicks and racists if they so prove themselves to be.

____________________

jenn:

Mr. Lynch,

I know they're already in Afghanistan. Obama wants to send more troops there. He's said that in both debates.

What are you talking about maddiekat with that link to Palin- grasping at straws? The guy that got fired admits that there were budget clashes with Palin. Thus, his job termination. Look at the 3-person committee investigating there- all Democrats.

Good bye to all- I sufficiently ruffled your feathers. Don't forget Al Gore was leading in the polls.

Take care

____________________

Yellow Dog Democrat:

West Virginia shouldn't surprise anyone. It is a traditionally democrat state that has only gone read in the last two elections, and Obama is running ads there touting his endorsements by Teddy Kennedy and Robert Byrd. West Virginia *loves* the Kennedys. They love Robert Byrd even more.

____________________

political_junki:

McCain to Gibson:"Voters certainly know me"
----------------------------------------------
Well duuh, that is why they are not voting for you :-)

____________________

Connor:

@jenn

Please calm down. Fine, you're not "fat," you're "big-boned."

And you're not "stupid," you're simply a "an old mindless hate-monger dumbass parroting right-wing media talking points."

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@jenn said

I'm just making a point about how everyone is blaming Bush for the deaths of American soldiers. Now Obama wants to send them into Afghanistan.

You stupid cow. Go troll somewhere else, you don't even know that we've had troops in Afhanistan for the last 7 years? I had a friend die there any you didn't even freakin' know that we've been fighting there since 9/11? YOU IGNORANT ****.

I've had 4 different family members who've been stationed there, one who's been there three times and you've come in here and act like you know something about it. SHUT THE HELL UP!

____________________

maddiekat:

kipTin

Ras Poll Florida! Obama has 87% of support from Dems and McCain has 85% support from Reps. Obama "now" leads McCain by 15% with Ind. Now please tell me how Obama lost 4% in Florida ASS!

____________________

Commander_King:

Jenn,Kiptin and Boomshak need banned asap. And any other right wing lunatics on here.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

guys, keep telling you, there is no need to take jenn and marctx seriously. they are from Absurdistan (which, btw, is a great book, esp. the first half). Just get a bigger motor and troll along.

now, where is my buddy boomshack?

____________________

marctx:

Wow..on CNN...ACORN Voter Fraud

50% of the ACORN submissions in Indiana were "fake".

____________________

mrut:

@MNLatteLiberal

Please, listen to yourself. I never insulted an immigrant, an emigrant, a migrant, or any grant at all. I have been making the point that people from WV deserve the same respect everyone else does.

No here's you:

"I am sick of immigrants being attacked on this site only because they are new citizens....Having said that, I have nothing against calling West Virginians hicks and racists if they so prove themselves to be."

Honestly, what are you putting in your latte?

____________________

slinky:

NH and West Virginia are surprises. The economy is in complete meltdown. These guys (McC and BO)
are to be commended for wanting a thankless job.

It appears that the economic melt down will be so severe that it no longer matters who wins.

It would be nice to hear something from the candidates that can ameliorate the situation, but I think neither of them has a time machine (Set the wayback for 1980, Sherman).

____________________

ErnieLynch:

jenn:

Mr. Lynch,

I know they're already in Afghanistan. Obama wants to send more troops there. He's said that in both debates.

Listen Jenn, go find a book called Descent into Chaos (sp) by an Afgan writer. It's very through about the problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Frankly, if we do not fix Afghanistan, then we will be sending troops into Pakistan to retrieve their nukes. Not a pleasant thought when Pakistan has 175 million people.

____________________

Viperlord:

Commander King, you can't have people banned because you disagree with them. That said, Greg has stepped over the line and certainly needs to be banned. Jenn, marctx, and boom are totally unreasonable but they haven't really done enough to be banned IMO. KipTin hasn't done anything wrong, he's much more informed than the rest of the neocons here.

And Ernie, you are totally correct, Afghanistan is the real war on terror, that's where our focus needs to be, and the commanders have said more troops are needed, the situation is getting worse over there.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

mrut, I do not wish to argue this any further, but here your direct quote:

"ndirish11 is a Russian who knows no more about democracy than about West Virginia. If he/she were so wise, Russia would have a flourishing democracy right now instead of a dictatorship."

Now, it seems to be your sole basis for that statement was the fact that the youtube link was to a Russian TV clip. You assumed that ndirish11 was a Russian living in Russia and therefore, his/her opinion ought to be discounted. Correct me, please, if I am wrong in that conclusion, based on your statement.

My post to you went to outline the reasons why I believe that ndirish is not in Russia, but in fact here, about various feeds for Russian TV and so on. Russians living in Russia have 1) better things to do than to post on pollster.com blogs and 2)in pretty good English.

My second point was that there was nothing in that segment on youtube that has not been expressed repeatedly by the residents of KY, WV and those parts during the primaries.

My last point was to explain why I have somewhat of a sensitivity when the immigrants are attacked. Not by you. By those I mentioned. And since I believe ndirish to be
1) an immigrant
2) living in the US
3) expressing the very same sentiment expressed by the Appalachia and highlighted by the MSM during the democratic primaries,

I kindly requested we stand down. That is all. My latte is clean and comes from conflict free beans.

If I somehow offended your sensibilities, please point the fallacy of my reasoning and I will apologize. Period.

____________________

mrut:

@Viperlord

Does this mean we can't call Jenn "fat"?

____________________

carl29:

Hello guys. Hello MNLatteLiberal!

____________________

political_junki:

Hi there Carl :-)

____________________

marctx:

MNLatteLiberal:

I just noticed you referenced me. I just picked on you because I wanted you to admit that Stewart's joke was bad and offensive...accusing hockey moms of having "male parts". Everyone I repeated the joke to said it was in bad taste.

Also you questioned my honesty about being hispanic. I'm hispanic and there is nothing wrong with that.

Neither Nipkin or myself are right wingers, we're democrats. I do post a lot of the republican talking point though because I'm crossing party lines for the first time in my life.

____________________

carl29:

Hello, hello, political_junki :-)!

____________________

ticketstub:

Yep...I'll jump to Kiptin's defense too. He and I probably don't agree with much, but so what? I've never seen him be unreasonable or abusive or anything else that would necessitate banning.

Differing ideas = good!

____________________

KipTin:

Again... the only authentic "ASS" I see here on this thread is "maddiekat" who seems to think calling others an "ASS" is somehow intelligent or civil.

FYI: According to Rasmussen, Obama is still ahead of McCain... so what is YOUR problem?

Also read the whole narrative from the Rasmussen Florida poll as follows: "Sometimes, INDIVIDUAL POLLS CAN OVERSTATE the volatility in a race, especially when the polls come with a +/- 4 percentage point margin of sampling error.

So, who is the real "ASS." Oh, yeh... the guy who calls others an "ASS" because he lacks the ability to read comprehensively.

P.S. It is so typical of members of Obamanation to call someone names for posting poll results and nothing more. He or she doesn't like the poll and spews his foul mouth off at the messenger.

____________________

slinky:

Yes, well, we are all using the term Afghanistan to describe the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is mostly Pakistan proper.

The Bush Admin. is already running cross-border covert operations and overt operations, and sending hellfire missiles using Predator drones at Pakistan about twice a week.

The problem is that Pakistan doesn't want us there, even if Obama talks about chasing them in hot pursuit.

Yes, there are nuclear weapons in Pakistan; but we probably would have never had this problem had Bush had the audacity (and foresight) to use a nuclear weapon at Tora Bora. That's what I would have done; but then, most of you on this board might then have thought me crazy.

But, to save lives, you sometimes have to take them.

____________________

mrut:

@MNLatteLiberal

Actually, I suspect that Ndirish is just an ordinary vanilla graduate of Notre Dame.

I don't see how we can make a case for Obama among West Virginians if we believe the few cut-and-pasted clips we've seen of them--all of which were made by the MSM to "prove" that Obama couldn't win the votes of white blue-collar voters.

That was the sole narrative of the late primary season, you will recall.

____________________

political_junki:

@KipTin:
Earlier you said you are a pragmatic not a republican, your tone and words are of a rightwing hack , is that part of your pragmatism?

Also %50+ of american people are Obamanation right now.

____________________

KipTin:

Like marctx, I am "crossing" party lines to vote Republican. I have voted Democrat for President every year since I have been eligible to vote.

____________________

Tony in Texas:

I may not be the smartest guy on the block but I'm smart enough to know that Warren Buffet probably knows what he's talking about.

Warrent Buffet Endorses Obama and here's a little of why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtWdFr1bkgA

Sound familiar?

____________________

political_junki:

marctx:
Well, I dont doubt your honesty but dont time yourself to marctx.
He has been a republican since he has been here, he hasnt crossed any line. He just pretends to be a renegade democrat to score points.

____________________

political_junki:

that message was directed to KipTin not marctx.

____________________

maddiekat:

Kip Tin

Yo ASS! Obamanation is a term that you, Drude / Fox / and Hannity morons like to toss around...PS I also voted for JFK moron!

____________________

KipTin:

So wanting a balanced federal budget are only words from a "rightwing hack?" Wow, that is scary.

No, "Obamanation" are the rabid followers of Obama (not all Obama supporters) who attack anyone and everyone who does not believe in their leader. They even eat their own if they happen to stray and criticize THE ONE. There is a BIG DIFFERENCE.

____________________

political_junki:

KipTin:
Bush caused biggest budget deficit in our history. If you think McSame will fix it good luck with your vote. He already is suggesting a 300B$ plan for bad mortgage bail out

____________________

maddiekat:

kiptin

Your right, the Republicans balanced the budget..You are a frigen joke!

____________________

KipTin:

Cannot help yourself, maddiekat? BTW, I have never watched Fox/Hannity in my life, and I do not read Drudge... so I do not know how they use the term.

So you voted for JFK? That would make you 69-years old or older. Is that right? So you also think that calling others "ASS" and "MORON" is a winning argument? Sad, sad, sad. I expect more from my elders.

____________________

marctx:

political_junki:

"marctx:
He has been a republican since he has been here, he hasnt crossed any line. He just pretends to be a renegade democrat to score points."

Me? Absolutely false and incorrect. Are you new here? I was spinning Hillary talking points until the DNC/Obama stole the nomination. Anyone that remembers since January I supported, contributed to, and volunteered for Hillary R. Clinton.


____________________

KipTin:

What is wrong with you, maddikat? I never said the Republicans balanced the budget, and since I have voted for Democrats until this year, that inference doubly does not make sense.

Clinton and GOP Congress accomplished it. And I have hopes that McCain and Democratic Congress can do the same. A one-party rule will not balance the budget... especially with Obama, Pelosi, and Reid all singing the same song.

____________________

political_junki:

@marctx:
My bad then. Sorry.
You are a really grumpy democrat though.

____________________

maddiekat:

kiptin

Actually I am 73 and I can tell you with out a doubt that McCain is the worst candidate your crap party has ever had!

____________________

carl29:

KipTin remember the hot-flashes :-) Don't get all worked up, at your age is not good.

No country for old ladies, just ask Sarah!!!

____________________

slinky:

@KipTin,

In the middle of this fiscal mess, about the last thing we need is a balanced budget. Fiscal stimulus is going to be needed as soon as this mess works its way through the economy. We may even need government work programs, like the WPA (although they will have to be masked, probably through contractors, to get away with court approvals). Do you think there is a Republican who will be able to propose those antidotes?

I don't.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

mrut,
I must admit, that I am amazed by today's WV numbers. I would have never thought such a turnaround possible. I need to see more WV polling before I believe it. And I'd love to be proven wrong on this one.

What miffs me is the unrealistically low MN +1 in the same poll. I am only human, and I am experiencing what I believe to be a boomshack reaction to that. Not only do I not believe the MN number, I am boomlike angry at it.

C'mon, Ras, MN isn't THAT hard to poll. Six districts, Twin Cities and a couple of CD's that are wacko right. My CD6 is one of them, but even here, we have more dems voting in primaries than reps.

But if we truly are polling behind WV, what does it then make us in MN? That is my quandary.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

got my rd today. of course about 80-85% of the world is smarter than according to the polls, about 40-45% of americans. how about that.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

short of being prejudiced, or underinformed, or just plain ignorant, i have yet to see anyone on this site tell a "compelling" reason to vote for mccain.

____________________

Connor:

Yeah, guys, marctx's candidates were:

Gore, Kerry, Hillary and...McCain!

I wonder what went on there. Any theories?

Huh, how is Obama different from Gore, Kerry, and Hillary? Hmmm, I can't put my finger on it. But I'm sure marctx has a great reason!

____________________

Ryan in MO:

the only mccain supporters in MO are prejudiced "I don't know why anyone in their right mind would vote for that n*****." Or else they are underinformed AND prejudiced "I don't know why anyone in their right mind would vote for that n*****. You're in for a wake up with a Muslim running the country."

____________________

Viperlord:

How is Obama a ultra liberal according to marctx if those were his candidates? Kerry if anything was even further to the left, and Hillary isn't much different.

And for the love of God people, lay off of KipTin. He is not a neoconservative like the rest of the right wingers here.

____________________

KipTin:

Do you know what ended the Great Depression (1929-1941)? Not Works Progress Administration (WPA), which did employ people... but rather U.S. entry into World War II. You need a little history lesson on what "stimulated" the economy back then.

____________________

marctx:

political_junki:

Thanks. I am a grumpy democrat. I'm one of the old dying bread PUMAs. LOL!

I do give it to carl29 though, my new favorite female politician is now Gov. Palin and I am not sure I will ever support Hillary again, and I doubt it will ever come up again.

Connor:

I've stated my reasons, but in short #1 liberal, wrong on the war (I support the war), unknown agenda because he shifts positions all the time, no experience, shady associations, and to risky. And those bitter comments upset me.


____________________

Ryan in MO:

then there is my wife's grandmother, who didn't like mccain until palin was on the ticket, and honestly beleives, yes she really does, that Obama IS the anti-christ.

then there is my father-in-law who votes only for the person against abortion every cycle.

____________________

KipTin:

Good... carl29... Your menopause argument is a real winner here in the middle of a discussion about fiscal issues. Why don't you tell us more about your PMS as you previously offered on another thread? We are all so interested.

____________________

slinky:

@KipTin,

Republican answer.

You know nothing.

____________________

mrut:

@MNLatteLiberal

It's just ARG's methodology. According to them O and Mc are close and haven't moved apart for 2 weeks.

Sure MN and WV are different, but let's not be snobby. Remember that CT must eternally bear the burden of being the birthplace of G. W. Bush, and no poll or election can wipe that away. Meanwhile, humble little AR gave us Clinton, whom I often did not like, but who was unarguably one of our smartest presidents, and a good steward of the economy besides. And he really was a hick.

____________________

Viperlord:

1 liberal: Fallacy. Based only off of opposing Bush often in 2007. Wrong on the war: If you support the war than yes, but Hillary didn't support it either, so that makes no sense. No experience: Bullcrap. He's been invloved with plenty of legsislation, and 2 of his major bills were with Republicans. Shady associations: Total Republican bullcrap.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

@marctx

"I've stated my reasons, but in short #1 liberal, wrong on the war (I support the war), unknown agenda because he shifts positions all the time, no experience, shady associations, and to risky. And those bitter comments upset me."

other than supporting the war, these are all underinformed arguments

____________________

carl29:

KipTin,

Thank you for your interest. I'm fine :-)!!!

____________________

Viperlord:

1 liberal: Fallacy. Based only off of opposing Bush often in 2007. Wrong on the war: If you support the war than yes, but Hillary didn't support it either, so that makes no sense. No experience: Bullcrap. He's been invloved with plenty of legsislation, and 2 of his major bills were with conservative Republicans. Shady associations: Total Republican bullcrap. Ayers: No more association than anyone else who was invloved with education in Chicago. No evidence of any close personal relationship. Rezko: He took real estate advice from him. End of story.

Wright: The only area where your close to having a point. He was his pastor based on how he preached Christianity. Not his personal feelings on America, assuming they ever came up, which is a assumption in of itself. Even Mike Huckabee of all people said it was ridiculous to use Wright against Obama, he said something to the effect of Wright being a angry man unable to cope with change, so he lashed out. And if there such great buddies you would certainly think he wouldn't do anything that would scupper Obama's campaign now would he? And I don't see you questioning McCain's ties to wackos like Hagee and Parsley, or his connection to the Council for World Freedom. So in short: Bunch of hypocrisy and bull.

____________________

Viperlord:

Don't know what's up with the weird double post thing. Anyway, a Factcheck on the number 1 liberal fallacy.

QUOTE
Statement:
Sen. John McCain, speaking at the University of Mississippi debate on September 26, said Sen. Barack Obama "has the most liberal voting record in the United States Senate."

Facts:
The National Journal magazine, in its annual vote rating, said Obama moved left last year to the "most liberal senator" rating "after ranking as the 16th and 10th most-liberal during his first two years in the Senate."

Americans for Democratic Action, the liberal activist group, and the American Conservative Union, the conservative activist group, also rate Congress members on their votes. Their findings describe Obama as one of, but not the most liberal U.S. senator.

The ADA gave Obama a 75 percent liberal score in 2007, 95 percent in 2006 and 100 percent in 2005. Other Democratic senators received 100 percent during those years. David Card, ADA communications director, said Obama's score was lower last year because he missed certain votes.

Obama has a lifetime ADA average of 90 percent. Other senators — such as Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Ted Kennedy and others — have higher lifetime ADA ratings. Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate in 2004, was ranked as the most liberal senator by the National Journal in 2003.

"He is one of the most liberal senators," Card said, referring to Obama.

The ACU, which customarily places conservative Republicans on the top of its list and liberal Democrats at the bottom, has given Obama a lifetime ranking of just 7.67, according to the figures on the group's Web site.

It says Obama scored 8 percent in 2005, 8 percent in 2006 and 7 percent in 2007. Other Democratic senators in the ACU rankings have had lower yearly and lifetime scores, the site shows.

"He's one of the most liberal," said Larry Hart, the ACU director of government relations.

Verdict: True, according to National Journal, but liberal and conservative rating groups reached a slightly different conclusion.

____________________

Hoosier:

@jenn:

I was actually talking about American deaths in Iraq. 230 estimate from icasualties.org. Actually less now than in Afghanistan.

So, only American deaths count in Iraq and Afghanistan. Talk about a racist attitude. "Dead people only count is they're ours."

Jenn, go back to your box of Twinkies and bile. Nuzzle up to your John McCain life-sized love doll and leave us alone.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

@McCain supporters

I am a married male, 27 years old. My wife stays at home with our 3 year old son and 20 month old daughter. We rent at an income-based apartment complex. She stays at home and has no income, I work in the hospitality and bring home about 600 dollars (rent payment) every two weeks. We have food stamps, but they keep going down (we already have to pay for groceries out of pocket because 350 dollars a month doesn't feed 4 people, and WIC has pretty much become a joke. I have student loans, but thanks to always being broke, I've pretty much been able to keep them on forbearance for the better part of 7 years. we have no health insurance, although the kids do have Medicaid, although we have two options for doctors for them, neither being that great. What will McCain Palin do to improve me and my family's situation??? Hopefully one of you can answer this.

____________________

laguna_b:

Dow tanks for 7th day straight...678 pts. Tokyo down almost 10%!!! nd McCain is still chasing Ayers mythologies......good thing tomorrow is Friday and he can go home and rest up.....the OLD GUY is clearly not ready to live much less lead.

____________________

mrut:

The Republicans call every Democratic nominee "the most liberal senator/governor in the universe." It doesn't matter who is running. Clinton would have been the most liberal senator in Congress if she had won the nomination. Kerry was the most liberal senator in 2004, but if Dean had won the nomination, he would have been the most liberal candidate.

The word "liberal" is supposed to scare people, but it doesn't even mean anything anymore. Obama is right when he says the "liberal" means "I opposed George Bush."

____________________

cinnamonape:

Hey MarcTx

Apparently here are another couple of traitors for saying that the US has bombed Afghan civilians

Defense Secretary Gates and General McKiernan

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080917/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/as_us_afghanistan

And believe me the Taliban and al Qaida already know we are bombing civilians.

It's the American people that YOU don't want to know.

____________________

Viperlord:

And as I showed above, other Democrats have a more liberal score than Obama, Hillary and Kerry included so marctx's propaganda falls flat on it's face.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"More people killed in Chicago during the last 6 months than killed in Iraq"

Well if you only consider "people" to mean "American soldfiers" you'd get close. I guess those EYE-ROCKIES aren't people.

____________________

mrut:

@Ryan

Hang in there, buddy. We need to get you and your family healthcare coverage. A big Dem majority in Congress should enable us to accomplish that in the first two years.

WIC, too. There's no reason we can't do better right away. The people in charge haven't cared.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

mrut, agreed on Clinton being impressive and smart, but imho this was no bubba hick. In addition to being very bright, he is very intuitive, or at least was during his presidency. Pat Buchanan is a hick. Sarah Palin is a hick. Jesse Ventura is a hick. Bill Clinton was no hick. He was a pragmatist.

As to CT, in my book the nutmeggers have something even worse to explain for the rest of their lives. I give you Senator Joe Lieberman. Well, perhaps not worse than dubya. No, def. not. But Lieberman is on TOP of that.

____________________

maddiekat:

The bottom line is the Republicans are trying to "purge" voters off the voting rolls again. There is one thing that is consistant every four years and that is the Republicans will sell there soul to try and win an election. KipTin your either a liar about being a democrat or you are a racist..Period!!!! McCain and Palin are dangeous. CNN get your fu##king head out of your AS# and call Farse News and the scum on the right that which they are!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Ryan, we feel for you. Hope your situation turns around for the better.

A word of advice, you should not open up on these message boards/blogs because if there is one thing Republican thugs are adept at is making you feel even worse when you are already down.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"I was actually talking about American deaths in Iraq. 230 estimate from icasualties.org. Actually less now than in Afghanistan."

Then your "proper" comparison would have been with the Chicago Police Department. The people we are supposedly protecting in Iraq are dying at vastly higher numbers from violence than people in Chicago. And those numbers went an order of magnitude higher than when Saddam was on his "reign of terror". Our war brought to the Iraqis ten times more death each year than they face during the Baathist regime.

____________________

ndirish11:

I appreciate everyone thinking I am russian but I am from Connecticut and live in Indiana, I just thought that video was a good example of West Virginia voters. People from the Northeast don't always understand that everyone isn't as modern or as accepting as we are. Race should not be looked at as a factor I am just saying that I think it would be a little too hopeful to say that it won't.

____________________

ndirish11:

I appreciate everyone thinking I am russian but I am from Connecticut and live in Indiana, I just thought that video was a good example of West Virginia voters. People from the Northeast don't always understand that everyone isn't as modern or as accepting as we are. Race should not be looked at as a factor I am just saying that I think it would be a little too hopeful to say that it won't.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

watching the SNL Election update special

____________________

slinky:

@KipTin,

The reason you know nothing is that the time distance between 1929 and 1941, war entry is 12 years, and much was done to ameliorate the depression during that time.

____________________

slinky:

Not that anybody cares, but troopergate has heated up:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/us/10trooper.html?hp

____________________

slinky:

For the reasons that Republicans, like McCain and Bush can't save us from the economic meltdown, this article is very instructive:

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=can_we_have_a_new_deal_without_the_new_dealers

____________________

Dana Adini:

was off the the internet for 25 hours (yom kippur) just went through the polls wow!!!

West Virgina + 8%, 5% down in Montana!!! + 16% in Michigan...what did i miss?

____________________

cinnamonape:

Jendiot: "I'm just making a point about how everyone is blaming Bush for the deaths of American soldiers. Now Obama wants to send them into Afghanistan."

And so does Gen. McKiernan and Defense Secretary Gates...and John McCain. The problem is that McCain wants to move them there without ANY reduction in Iraq. Where can they come from...there are not enough troops in thye overextended military...which is why there is a crisis.

Obama says begin reductions from Iraq and take one of those divisions to be going TO Iraq and send them to Afghanistan.

What's McCain's solution? A draft? How long will it take to induct and train the necessary forces?


"By the way, Obama is talking about the high cost of the war in Iraq. Sending troops to Afghanistan isn't free."

No, but Iraq has a $50 billion surplus and we are still paying for their reconstruction and having our military there when they should be taking charge of their own country.

The Afghans ARE where al Qaida really are threatening...not Iraq.

____________________

mrut:

MNLatteLiberal

Your definition of "hick" is selective--basically, everyone you don't like.

Believe me, if we could crawl into a time machine and dial it back 50 years, you would not be able to distinguish Billy Clinton from any other barefoot clapboard-shack dweller in Arkansas. Clinton rivals only Lincoln as the president who rose from the humblest circumstances. Not bad company to be in, and proof that you can't predict someone's intelligence by the culture they grew up in.

Pat Buchanan is not a hick. He was born in Washington, DC. His father was a partner in an accounting firm and his mother was a nurse. That's urban and middle- to upper middle-class.

____________________

Viperlord:

KipTin has not made any racist comments I can see. Please back up what you say with something, just because the other side usually doesn't isn't a excuse. World War II did finally shake off the Depression for good, but it would be wrong to say FDR didn't do much to get America back on it's feet again even before then.

____________________

Viperlord:

Greg has made racist comments, perhaps you got them mixed up?

____________________

slinky:

I agree, KipTin is not racist, just economically unsophisticated.

Hey, KipTin, College degree? Micro? Macro? Advanced Econ?

[I think I'm gonna be shocked if this guy has a trading license or MBA].

____________________

mrut:

@ndirish11

You are either an Irish person from North Dakota, or a patriotic Notre Dame fan. I, however, accused you not merely of being a Russian (I don't care about that), but--worse--a FSB (Russian intelligence service) troll. I was wrong. There are a lot of them out there; their job is to defend Russian policy, especially after an atrocity by the Russian army or an assassination by the government.

I flew off the handle.

____________________

marctx:

Viperlord:

KipTin has not made any racist comments

I agree.

____________________

slinky:
____________________

maddiekat:

Wow Zogby the dick just told Hannity that McCain was in trouble. Hannity cried and then threatened to not have Zogby on the show again.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Zogby got back in the game with hannity

____________________

Ryan in MO:

@mccain supporters


McCina drinks dog blood and once had a sex dungeon?!?!?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Ryan, same here. The opening skit got better as it went along.

@mrut - there are plenty of people I don't like who are not hicks. Of the people in the spotlight, I no longer like Hillary, and she is not a hick. I am not fond of Bill Bennett and he is no hick. That talking head token AA woman on CNN, the Republican Faux shill on CNN - don't like her, and she is no shill.

To me a hick is not somebody who disagrees with me, but rather someone who displays backwater kind of narrow mindedness.

But we digress. I'd really prefer to pick another topic esp. since the real ndirish turned out to be neither nd, nor irish, nor russian. and not 11 either, i suspect.

I am tickled by one of the recent pop up news on the right of the screen, the one about McCampaign co-chair trying to get Obama to open up on drug use. Some guy named Keating. But the wrong Keating.

And can someone please explain to me what happened to Dennis Miller? First he was making apologies for supporting dubya because of the war and changing horses midstream, but with his anti-Obama stance he is not even apologetic. So how does Keating get off going on Dennis Miller show, and Dennis is obviously someone who has NEVER DONE DRUGS, and the subject of Obama's ancient drug use is the one thing they can find to talk about. In the midst of this economy.

I think in hell there is going to be a special inner circle Dante-like room that Dennis Miller will be sharing with Lieberman for all eternity.

____________________

cinnamonape:

MarcTx- There clearly is a problem in Lake County. In all the other areas the asserted cases of "fraud" are actually 3 or 4 out of tens of thousands. But the problem isn't with registrations that are actually going to be fake voters. If any fraud is being perpetrated it's on ACORN itself. They hire people who are paid to meet quotas or get bonuses for the number of signatures (this "bounty system" is a widespread situation that standrted with private initiative signature gatherers...and is used by both parties).

Do you really think a 7 year old girl is going to be allowed to vote? Or that a person named "Mickey Mouse"? Or that someone who registers 30 different times using the same address isn't going to be detected by the Secretary of State?
Or that someone is going to come up with the ID's of the complete Denver Broncos offensive line?

These aren't efforts to get fake people into the ballot box. I'd suggest that they are 1) an effort to defraud ACORN...by falsifying non-existent people so that a gatherer can line their own pockets. 2) Pranksters. 3) An intentional effort to legitimize the cries of fraud by Republican activists who created easily detected fakes.

Furthermore...if you actually read the comments of the Secretary of State in Illinois...the vast bulk of these forms were not "fraudulent" but were rejected because they were INCOMPLETE or the handwriting was illegible. Thus these may very well be legitimate voters who now believe that they are registered.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/indianapolis_voter_registration_at_105/

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

When is the conservative mainstream media going to question Sarah Palin's association to the Alaska Independence Party. These people promoted her campaign as mayor. She appointed some of them to posts. She took up some of their issues on the local level. She praised the group, and even spoke at their convention.

They say that they hate the government of the United States of America. They want Alaska to be it's own independent nation.

What give's with the conservative right wing mainstream media channels of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and FOX that their willing to overlook a real character issue on the Republican side with Sarah Palin and John McCain to focus on a purely tangental relationship between a black Democrat and 70's counter culture white college professor? It's not enough that they bury John McCain's membership in a group that gave aid to Osama Bin Laden.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Apparently, I don't know the difference between "their" and 'they're". It should have read:

What give's with the conservative right wing mainstream media channels of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and FOX that they're willing to overlook a real character issue on the Republican side with Sarah Palin and John McCain to focus on a purely tangental relationship between a black Democrat and 70's counter culture white college professor?

____________________

slinky:

they call that "balance".

- expect them to do it after he's in, also.

____________________

slinky:

Snap analysis: America is filled with people not educated enough to be reading these polls, or who understand the sliding windows.

We've got people who understand NO ECONOMICS at all, voting and trying to understand the issues behind a huge meltdown.

In my opinion, America is, very possibly, going to get a better leader that the country merits.

A great citizenry, my foot. This country needs classes nearly everywhere.

And, we are supposed to compete with the Chinese and Japanese?

hahahahahaha

____________________

marctx:

did anyone else's font change on pollester or did i get a virus or something. my fonts are huge.

____________________

Viperlord:

Looks normal to me.

____________________

vandrop:

Anyone have ideas for we should get for 2016? I was thinking Tim Kaine.

____________________

vandrop:

Anyone have any ideas for who we should nominate in 2016? I was thinking Tim Kaine.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@marctx

I'm doing it on purpose to mess with the conservatives

____________________

Connor:

@marctx

"did anyone else's font change on pollester or did i get a virus or something. my fonts are huge."

Yes, you got a virus. That's what it is. Because you "loved a woman who wasn't clean."

____________________

Bigmike:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas

Conservative main stream media? Who are you kidding?

Or is it whom, I never get that one right.

____________________

mrut:

@MNLatteLiberal

I'll tell you precisely where I disagree with you: it's on your association of "backwater" with "narrowmindedness."

You know better than that. I have lived on the coasts (west and east) for the past 12 years, and I have been astounded and disturbed by the assumption these people (not "those people") have about the "backwater," AKA flyover country, in which they include your beloved Minnesota. WE know that Minnesota has the best public schools in the country, the kids are all smart, music education is better in the upper Midwest than you'll find anywhere--anywhere on the coasts. But try convincing a San Franciscan or a New Yorker of that.

Furthermore, they assume that they are open-minded. Why? Not because they actually ARE open-minded, but rather because they are not from the "backwater."

Sorry MNLatteLiberal--but to much of the self-appointed elite of the coasts, you're a hick, just because of where you're from. They can't differentiate between you and a West Virginian. Why? Because they're ignorant--yes--elitist, "open-minded" (i.e., not from the backwater), and God-bless-America-Jesus-Christ-Superstar IGNORANT. And they're happy that way. I have had just as little success disabusing them of their prejudices as I would have talking "hicks" out of theirs.

That's all I'm saying. I think elitism is a huge weakness of the Democratic Party that a 50-state campaign will remedy over time, but only if we keep going out and knocking on doors and listening as well as talking to people about what the country should be.

So nothing against you at all--I'm a huge admirer of Minnesota and Minnesotans. I went to high school in an excellent public school in North Dakota and my mother is from Iowa.

____________________

maddiekat:

CNN is doing there typical crap! There are nooses at McCain events and Obama is calling McCain erratic. So CNN in there great fair and balanced reporting say that both camps are getting dirty. Anderson Cooper is a moron!

____________________

mrut:

I have to go to bed. Keep the fire burning.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

jenn said...
"More people killed in Chicago during the last 6 months than killed in Iraq."

And when challenged, defined 'people' as 'Americans'.

People, as defined at dictionary.com is:
"persons indefinitely or collectively"

Persons (plural of person), as defined at dictionary.com is:
"A living human"

So jenn, by changing her 'definition' of 'people' denies that Iraqi civilians are not human.

jenn said:
"I know they're [American troops] already in Afghanistan. Obama wants to send more troops there. He's said that in both debates."

Are you forgetting that John Sydney McCain III has also proposed INCREASING the number of troops in Afghanistan?

From Forbes: "Though McCain has no plausible plan to increase troops in Afghanistan, he agrees that more should be sent." (http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/10/01/mccain-afghanistan-pakistan-oped-cx_br_1002rubin.html)

jenn said...
"[I am n]ot fat by the way."

Just typical neo-con lazy in backing up their 'talking points'. In other words, not able to do it, just hoping some of the male bovine droppings they throw will stick.

jenn said...
"Good bye to all"

Really? For all time??

Yeah, we've heard that before from your fellow-traveling troll named boomshat, but he/she/it just keeps reappearing. Again, typical of the neo-cons - they make a promise, then can't stick to their promise but just make matters worse, and then blame everyone else for matters getting worse.

____________________

Viperlord:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story There is no great media conspiracy on either side. MSNBC is very liberal, just as Fox Noise is ultra-conservative, and the rest hover near the center to varying degrees.

____________________

Bigmike:

Slinky, buddy

Of course the electorate is not well schooled in economics. And in lots of other areas too. That is why character is so important. Since there is so much we don't know, it is important that we elect people we trust to do the right thing once they have the facts and the opinions of their cabinet (or whatever "brain trust" they have).

____________________

Ulysses:
Latest thoughts on the drama of THE "SCOTTISH" CAMPAIGN or, as the less superstitious of us "insiders" and politicians in Washington DC are beginning to call it,
THE TRAGEDY OF McCAIN

Reflections & A Personal Note to the Arizona Senator from an Admirer, who merely calls himself Ulysses for the sake of posting on this site.

"ABCNews.com - October 9, 2008 04:05 PM. Obama buying 30 minutes of time on CBS, NBC and MSNBC at 8PM on October 29th."
One can only feel for McCain's strategists who -- like the hapless passengers in "The Poseidon Adventure" -- find themselves upsidedown underwater as deck after deck floods upward, trapping them in ever more cramped and desperate circumstances. As an Independent who has worked this town for awhile, and who has always held the Senator in great regard, I can only distantly feel the grim sense of doom that must be flooding their minds right now... looking at the polls, the stock market crash (for now it truly is a crash), a seemingly unstoppable and ever more confident opponent, and now the news that the super-solvent juggernaut of the Obama campaign is buying up a gigantic slice of America's prime time TV attention on the eve of the election. Obama's campaign is once again playing an amazing game of chess. For McCain, a heroic and good man, one can only hope that gutter attacks and personal smears -- something he has railed against (rightly) his entire career, and of which he was so unfairly the victim at the hands of GW Bush in former days -- are not his last word.

Senator McCain: if you are listening, please remind us of your own greatness and integrity. Either go out as a winner, or lose like a hero.

____________________

marctx:

Alright Conner and Shannon. I just needed to zoom out on Firefox.

Latte:

I have it TIVO'ed is it original or clips from SNL? I watch all the SNLs so I don't want to see clips.

Politics aside is anyone bummed like me? I lost like 20+% of my 401k this year. That f-ing sucks.

____________________

jenn:

Never said we shouldn't shift the focus from Iraq to Afghanistan. I just said how Obama likes to point out continually how much spending we're doing for Iraq when he will probably need a lot of funding for Afghanistan/Pakistan effort.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

CNN --

Campbell Brown -- However, I like her reporting at the moment. It's been pretty fair. She's a conservative.

Lou Dobbs

Glen Beck

ABC

Charlie Gibson -- Palin puff pieces

NBC

Brian Williams -- Pretty neutral but coverage favors Republican talking points.

CBS

Bob Schieffer -- read his opinion stuff

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/opinion/schieffer/main500158.shtml

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

FOX NEWS is 24/7 Republican Orgy

____________________

jenn:

Original statement of fact I was trying to make was that more Americans have been murdered in Chicago in the last 6 months than in Iraq. Not meant to be a racist statement against the Iraqi people. Murder rate is 3 times higher than that of New York. Just trying to point out the crime problem there and that Obama has not made a difference.

If he's such a great politician with brilliant ideas, how is Chicago better today? How will America see positive changes if we can't see them in Chicago?

Over and out. You won't have this conservative to kick around anymore.

____________________

slinky:

BigMike,

News flash: There are countries with people in them who actually understand economics, physics, chemistry, biology, engineering.

In these countries, there is little debate about evolution, why bridges fall down, why buildings fall down, and why banks fall down.

We are in competition with those countries.

If our electorate is dependent on 'personalities' to decide who will lead us, we will end up with ****ty leaders now or soon.

We need a country that actually understands what it's about.

Paul Volcker (who was Fed chairman under Reagan, and actually was a very good pick) is on Charlie Rose, saying that things aren't awful, awful. But, since he's the one that originally proposed the bailout in the WSJ, he is not an objective arbiter.

The problem may be larger than anyone thinks.

____________________

slinky:

The point is: Democracy does not work if the electorate is uneducated.

Our electorate in the US is now officially uneducated.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

noTpiK said...
"Do you know what ended the Great Depression (1929-1941)? Not Works Progress Administration (WPA), which did employ people... but rather U.S. entry into World War II."

Actually niTpiK, there is a great deal of differing opinions about when, why and how the Great Depression ended.

Did it end when the real gross domestic product started up from the bottom? If so, then it was in 1933-34 that that happened, at least eight years prior to US entry into WW II (December 8, 1941). (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gdp29-41.jpg)

Was it when the real gross domestic product exceeded the level of 1929? If so, then it was in 1936-37 when that happened, at least five years prior to US entry into WW II. (See reference above.)

Maybe when the gross national product exceeded the levels of 1929? If so, then it was in 1940 when that happened, almost two years PRIOR to US entry into WW II. (See second graph at http://ingrimayne.com/econ/EconomicCatastrophe/GreatDepression.html)

Then there are many that state "Only when the federal government imposed rationing, recruited 6 million defense workers (including women and African Americans), drafted 6 million soldiers, and ran massive deficits to fight World War II did the Great Depression finally end."

Do you measure it by the Dow Jones Index? On September 3, 1929, the Dow closed at 381.17. The next date that the Dow closed at or above that level was on November 23, 1954, when it closed at 382.74 (that's almost 12 years AFTER the US entered WW II, more than 9 years AFTER V-J day, and more than 25 years AFTER Black Thursday, Black Monday and Black Tuesday.

Depends on how you measure "The Great Depression" is how you determine when it began or ended.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

jenn is an idiot.

Local problems (murder rate in Chicago) falls under the purview of the local authorities (i.e., for Chicago that means the mayor, city council, county government).

State problems (state-maintained roads and bridges; property, sales, and use taxes, regulation of monopolistic utilities, etc.) falls under the purview the state authorities (i.e., governor, state legislature).

According to the Constitution's Preamble, the purpose of the Constitution is: "in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America." Thus all those are the purview of the federal government.

Since Senator Obama was a state senator, then a US senator, he is NOT, nor never has been, directly responsible controlling or lessening the murder rate in Chicago.

____________________

Bigmike:

slinky

Most of us are not expert in more than 1 or 2 areas. No one knows everything. Including you, me, and all of the candidates. I would whole-heartedly agree we ought to make kids take Capitalism 101 before we give them a HS diploma.

I know a little math, physics, chemistry, I manage my money OK, not real big on biology, if I find time to read it is likely to be science fiction. Put me in a room with 99 other people and maybe one is brighter than I am.

I am pretty sure evolution is the real thing.

Don't try to tell me the Euros, or anyone else, know today more than we do why banks fall down. They are regulated more than we are, and their financial systems are in kim-she just as deep as ours is.

My point is the world is a complicated place these days. There is too much stuff to know for us all to be experts on every last policy line. I am not saying we shouldn't be better educated. But sometimes you just gotta go with what feels right.

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

"But sometimes you just gotta go with what feels right."

Is that the same as gut-feel, like Dimwit Shrub uses?

God help us if that is your standard.

____________________

common sense:

@ Big Mike : The markets are based on optimism or pessimism. The world currently thinks that we are idiots. If Obama is perceived as a sure thing - the markets will go up. The world markets need an infusion of new hope. I think Obama will deliver that. What do you think?

____________________

common sense:

If anyone reads this which I doubt please get my point. The Republcan party is bankrupt. Bankrupt of ideas and a sad collection of people who believe that patriotism involves waving the flag and nothing else.

____________________

jenn:

Mike in Maryland:

Obama WAS/IS responsible for helping curtail the crime problem and other issues within his state. As a leader in his state, he IS responsible for organizing city,county,and state officials to work on the problem.

So you're saying according to the Constitution that the crime problem should be passed on to the federal government. Weak!


If McCain was a politician from Illinois/Chicago, Dems of course would be pointing out the same thing.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR