Pollster.com

THis is really amusing the race is this close. I knew that Mccain would get challenged in the primary just because he lost to that socialist, Islamic president who was not born in the US. That Unamerican leader we have who is going to kill your grandmother by giving her different options whether she wants her life shortened or not.

Damn Mccain for having to correct that lady at the Minnesota rally who thought Obama was an Arab. THe price you pay for being a fairly honest campaigner is a challenger like Heyworth.

Hayworth has almost caught McCain! The primary race will be might be closer than some people might think. However, at the end of the day I don't see McCain losing!

The RNC has got to be looking closely at these races. Hayworth has a solid lead over the democrat but it's much less than McCains. And look at the favorability, I'm guessing the independents are the ones who like McCain and don't like Hayworth. If people like Hayworth start winning primaries the republicans are gonna see a lot more losses than they're expecting in the general elections.

Yeah. Democrats didn't have the strongest candidates in Florida and Arizona because they presumed Crist was a sure thing, and who would have ever thought anyone would have had a competitive race with Mccain. It shows you can't take anything for granted.

On a different note, I have seen no polls on Alan Grayson, yet Real Clear Politics had it as a likely Republican seat. I couldn't find any evidence of it. IN fact last March, the GOP couldn't even find a candidate to run against him.

Grayson is no fool. He knows his district well enough that it is a competive district, but unless you know you have a 50 percent shot at being re-elected, he would have been much more of a blue dog on the health reform issue.

I think Grayson's race will be a toss up, and I would not say Michelle Bachmann is a safe Republican. Turnout in both these districts will be very high.

it doens't matter about Bachmann. She is going to be re-district out when the census comes out. She should keep on telling her constituents not to complete their census.

If Bachmann and Palin are the face of the Republican Party, I think sane Republicans need to start a new one call it the Sane Republican party or maybe those people should just just become independents.

i guess taking over the senate is impossible now too. Both Pataki and Thompson said they aren't going to run. Reps have to win CO, IN, AR, NV, PA. ND, IL, DE plus another two to have a majority. CA is the only possibility. I am not sure that there is another one. Gillibrand and Feingold lead other competetors by a good margin. They can't lose OH, MO, FL, NC, NH, AZ either. I think the dems will be around 54-55 after this whole thing settles. i think a surprise will happen in one of the states with a Republican currently in office.

I looked at the internals of the primary poll and I think the McCain/Hayworth primary could go either way. According to the poll Hayworth has a 58% favorability among R primary voters and McCain has 57%. In addition, Hayworth represented a part of Maricopa county for a while and has gotten the endorsement of Sheriff Joe Arpaio. The fact that McCain an a four-term incumbent is ahead of Hayworth by only 5 is amazing. In addition, the primary is in September so there is a huge amount of time for McCain to continue to bleed votes to Hayworth.

It's basically within the MOE; the poll shows McCain just 0.5% out of the MOE.

Now who is Rasmussen going to recruit for WI and NY?

wow didn't Palin stump for him out in Arizona? I guess she should go everywhere now to stump for candidates.

Just like Obama!

With Guilliani and Pataki not running there are no electable Republicans for the US Senate or Governor.

With Guilliani and Pataki not running there are no electable Republicans for the US Senate or Governor.in ny

Looks like Hayworth is catching up to McCain. The primary isn't until August and he is only five points down, in a Rasmussen poll. This will be interesting.

If McCain does lose he will pull a Lieberman and still keep his seat!

McCain will pull out every trick in the book to win this primary, if it takes trotting Sarah Palin out every other day. He has a lot of connections and money as well. This isn't his first rodeo, although it's worse than usual for him.

Has he faced significant primary opposition before? He's never had a particularly difficult general election.

Okay, answered my own question. McCain had a wide-open path to the republican nomination in 1986 to succeed Barry Goldwater. He ran unopposed every time after that, except in 1998 when there was a token write-in candidate.

He's always had divided and weak opposition in his general election senate runs as well.

This is new territory for him.

If McCain loses, he cannot run as an independent. I believe Arizona law forbids the loser of a primary to run in that same year's election under another party.

Rasmussen will probably start finding left wing 3rd party people to get into 3 way races in Oregon, VT and Hawaii for the US Senate. I think they will pay them just to drive Democrats crazy!

The whole concept of polling and campaigns and whoever spends the most has the upper hand. This has gotten more like a sporting event and what the political parties have forgotten about is the issues. It confuses a nation that is turned off to politics even more now than it ever has.

What jumps out at me are the high unfavorables for Hayworth, and his extremely low lead over someone who's only political experience is a stint on the AZ Farm Bureau and Tuscon City Council. he's not even at 50% and can't break double digits.

Now, I doubt any Dem can win in AZ in November given the current headwinds they'll face; however Hayworth is the kind of gruff and blustery candidate who might just turn off enough people (especially moderate independents and women) to make things interesting. And if the economy were to heat up quicker than expected I can see it being low or mid single digits. Something to look forward to in November (vs. many things to fear). It doesn't hurt that Glassman is an officer in the US Air Force Reserve, and, though not yet widely known, his curent favorables are pretty good for a Dem in AZ in 2010.