Myers Research (D) and Grove Insight (D) for Project New West
10/23-25/08, 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4
McCain 44, Obama 40, Nader 3, Barr 2
Arizona is going to be fun to watch. I'd be very happy if McCain lost at home.
Posted on October 26, 2008 12:29 AM
Gee, you think this spells trouble for McSame??
Posted on October 26, 2008 12:52 AM
McCain is only up by 4 in his home state? This is significantly different from the rest of the AZ polls (see link below), so unless we see more polls come in with similar upcoming numbers, then this is merely an outlier poll and not a real reflection of the AZ electorate.
But boy would that be a delicious sprinkle on top of an election win for Obama!
Posted on October 26, 2008 1:06 AM
wow. 4 points in AZ... shame shame.
Posted on October 26, 2008 1:56 AM
"All the other polls" you are mentioning are at least a month old - before even the first debate.
A LOT happened since then!
Posted on October 26, 2008 2:10 AM
liz from NJ,
You're right, I hadn't noticed the dates of the most recent previous polls being so old, good point. Still, this is just one poll. Just because only one sample was taken recently doesn't mean that it's any less likely to be an outlier. Couple that with the common sense notion that it shouldn't be that close, and it means that this poll should be taken with a grain of salt.
Seeing as how this lone recent poll puts the race so tight here, I think it's more a signal that additional polls should be done in this state so that we can build up a idea of what's the real overall picture.
Posted on October 26, 2008 3:46 AM
600 LVs? And probably unweighted for demographics, too...
I guess you could just as well roll the dice... ;->
Posted on October 26, 2008 5:52 AM
If you look at the date of the last Arizona poll on the link you posted, you will see the last one was almost a month ago. As we all know, a lot can happen in a month. So maybe we will see Arizona go into the yellow zone.
Posted on October 26, 2008 6:42 AM
The real test will be a university poll coming out in short order.
Posted on October 26, 2008 10:25 AM
600 is pretty good number for a single state. Many survey panels contain only 400 or 500. MOE of 4 means that this could be anywhere from McCain up 12 to Obama up 4. Based on registration the latter possibility is highly unlikely. Based on the overall shifts in similar states over the past month it's not hard to imagine AZ as realistically being +6 to +8 for McCain and closing.
Obama won't win this state, but, if this trend continues, and he gets mid single digits it will embarrass the hell out of McCain. True..the election is not about one candidate embarrassing another---it's about saving this country from ruin, really; but I must say that, given the current tactics of McCain's campaign, it would be sweet to see this race NOT called as soon as the polls close. McCain, unfortunately for a man of such great PAST heroism and honor, is at the point of squandering his reputation
Posted on October 26, 2008 10:49 AM
wow.. awesome! Good for a laugh, but Arizona isn't going blue in this lifetime.
Posted on October 26, 2008 11:44 AM
Fortunately McShame has other residences he can flee to if he loses in AZ.
Posted on October 26, 2008 12:23 PM
A political columnist for the Arizona Daily Star (Tucson)writes in this morning's paper:
A statewide poll taken by Tucson-based Democratic pollsters Carol and Pete Zimmerman two weeks out from the election suggests McCain's lead over Obama falls within the margin of error: 43.5 percent to 41.5 percent, with 10 percent of likely Arizona voters undecided.
Posted on October 26, 2008 12:46 PM
The critical thing in this poll would be the proper mix of urban areas and their suburbs. If they properly proportioned things it should be okay. Just as in Nevada there has been a large influx of folks from California and other states over the last two decades. This is diluting the libertarian Republican nature of the state to some degree.
Also there are a lot more young people and minorities. Native peoples are a lot more enfranchised and have political influence. Conflicts between mining, water, and environmental interests and suburban folks are high.
It's not the state that existed when John McCain was first elected Senator.
Posted on October 26, 2008 12:49 PM
Anyone notice this in the story?
"Project New West, which aims to build the Democratic Party in the Intermountain West, says the Republican leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the Grand Canyon State, 48 percent to 44 percent.
The pollsters call that a “dramatic shift” from a survey they took in mid-September, which had McCain ahead by 14 points, 54 percent to 40 percent. "
Was that poll published? It's not in the list of polls that the site has listed.
Ras had McCain 59-Obama 38 +21
ASU had McCain 45- Obama 38 +7
ARG had McCain 56 - Obama 38 +18
Let's assume that the Myers poll is in this series. They Average about +15...so the Myers poll would be a good middle measure.
So here's the problem when the ASU poll when it comes out. It was the low outlier in the earlier series. So what if it confirms this poll? Will it be discounted because it was "methodologically erroneous" previously?
I think that some people will ignore the academic poll because of its earlier results...but judging from Myers previous results it may actually be the more reliable.
Posted on October 26, 2008 1:02 PM
One more point. The Myers and ASU polls are the only ones that include the third party candidates. This could be important inasmuch in the primaries Ron Paul got a substantial number of "protest" votes against McCain. And Romney did very well also. In fact, Arizona was rather an embarassment for McCain...it being his "home state".
Posted on October 26, 2008 1:06 PM
It's hard to be surprised about this number. No campaigning in Arizona, so basically this is going to move like the national numbers. McCain's popularity in Arizona is an open question - he's a long-serving Senator there, but his "native son" bonus is limited given how long he's been in Washington for. Arizona has an independent streak that favors a change candidate. If McCain weren't from Arizona, one assumes Obama would have been competing there.
Posted on October 26, 2008 1:26 PM
I have been living in Arizona for about 10 years now and am an independent voter. This is not your Barry Goldwater state anymore. The social conservative wing of the party dominate phoenix politics, a little less so in other parts of the state and Tucson is downright liberal.
The state may go to Obama if the Native American voters turn out. Several years ago Janet Napalitano, a democrat, won the Governorship because of a big turnout of Native American voters to defeat a ballot initiative that would have hurt Indian Gaming in the state. While no such initiatives exist this election cycle,(but a social conservative one defining marriage is)it is still thought that a high turnout of these voter who are predominately democratic, may boost Obama's number to a victory!
It also must be known that a significanr number of the native american voters live on reservations and are under-polled or not polled at all. Many have only cells!!
It is also interesting to note that it is expected that several House races may go to a democrat over an incumbent republican!! Time they are a changin'!!
Enough for Arizona to be BLUE! and to give the republicans the "BLUES"
Posted on October 26, 2008 8:30 PM
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