October 26, 2008
AZ: McCain 44, Obama 42 (Zimmerman & Associates)
Zimmeran & Associates and Marketing Intelligence
10/16-19/08, 408 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.9
Arizona
McCain 44, Obama 42
Note: The original version of this post was based on a report by the Arizona Daily. The press release from Marketing Intelligence and Zimmerman follows after the jump.
October 21, 2008 For Immediate Release
Presidential Race Narrows
in Arizona
A new survey of Arizona
likely voters suggests that Senator Barrack Obama (D) is edging closer to
Senator John McCain (R) as their presidential campaigns draw to a close. The
survey, conducted by Marketing Intelligence and Zimmerman & Associates,
shows McCain with the support of 43.5% of voters, while Obama draws a
preference from 41.5%.
Two recent statewide surveys, one by Rasmussen Reports and the other by Arizona State University, were in agreement about Obama's portion of the vote, but varied considerably on McCain's strength. Rasmussen said McCain enjoyed a commanding 59% to 38% advantage, while ASU said McCain's lead was only 45% to 38%.
The Rasmussen and ASU Surveys were both conducted
during the last week of September.
According to the new research almost ten percent of likely voters are still undecided, while 5.1% are supporting various third party candidates.
Not surprisingly, the results varied widely according
to the state's geography. Maricopa
County voters preferred McCain by a
thin edge of 42.9% to 40.0% for Obama, while Obama enjoys a margin of almost 19
points in Pima County, beating McCain 53.5% to 34.9%. Arizona's other 13
counties, combined, give McCain a 51.8% to 37.3% advantage.
The Marketing Intelligence/Zimmerman & Associates poll sampled 408 likely voters statewide. The results are within ± 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. Interviews were conducted from October 16th through October 19th.
The survey was not commissioned by any political party
or candidate.
---------------------------
Founded in 1999, Tucson-based Marketing Intelligence provides both quantitative and qualitative research to a broad range of clients, helping them identify and achieve strategic objectives.
Also located in Tucson, Zimmerman & Associates is one of Arizona's premier public affairs companies and has been in business since 1989.
By Staff on October 26, 2008 3:31 PM | Permalink
Comments
What's next? Utah?
holy jesus.
Wow, if John McCain loses his own homestate that would be completely embarrassing. Obama has a significant lead in both his homestate, Hawaii and Illnois.
surge!
Awwwww snap!
Even Arizona loves President Obama. America is making up its mind, folks, and America wants change.
Here's an oldie but a goodie by Bill Hicks talking about the Republican elephant dying (first time back in 1992).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXomG2iB20c
Sorry forgot the link LOL.
Obama winning Arizona would be more humiliating than any landslide scenario.
This is the second poll that has the race in Arizona within the margin of error.
It makes sense to spend money there now if I were Obama. Maybe even have an event?
What. The. Hell. Is. Happening?
confirms the other poll, but I would love to see a non-partisan poll to confirm these findings.
Daily Kos hinted yesterday that ASU would be releasing a poll on Monday that also showed a close race.
Can't wait to see if that pans out.
Okay, if not yellow how about at least pink!
huge dem turnout in aerly voting in Georgia, NM, NC, iowa....slightly ahead 44-40 in florida high tunrout there too..Colorado Party Id updated once a weem
Ouch.
Lots of undecideds though. It seems a little late in the game for there to be 14% undecided.
McCain Surge Continues.... !!!
Methinks we need to start a support group,
Save the Red Foundation for Boomshak Sanity (SRF4BS) before it's too late. The red is disappearing off the national map faster than dinosaurs 6000 years ago. And I am not going anywhere near the BS.
lol.
Bush was up by 11 in AZ in '04, and as it's mccain's homestate, doing anything less that bush there would be a huge humiliation.
Mccain should be easily double-digit.
HaHaHaHaHaHa..............McShame can't even hold ground in his own state!!! Makes my day! :-)
Anchorage Alaska Daily News endorsed Obama today too.
There is something strange I feel.
States like ND, SD, MT, GA and AZ are coming close, while they were as red as red can be in the beginning of the race and in the previous elections.
FL and OH were toss-up. And guess what? They're still toss-up.
I'd have assume (and surely many other people would have too) that before BO comes close in those red states, FL and OH would be his by a double digit margin.
The McCain campaign is starting to look like the McGovern campaign; in that, McGovern did not win his home state either in 1972 and lost to Nixon. This is the second poll I have seen today that Obama and McCain were separated by 4% or less.
In both cases an unwise vice presidential choice was the blame; as was an unpopular war. Watergate also played a huge role and would not come to life to after the election. Payback time for the Democrats over the Republicans.
WTF?
There is no way this should be close. This is like TN back in 2000, except this time if McCain loses AZ, he already lost the election in a landslide.
Arizona is no longer a naturally Republican state. If it weren't for the favorite son effect, it would have gone blue long ago.
OMFG!!!!!!!!
I don't see why this is so surprising. HUGE latin population and McCain's and old washed out politician.
Maybe Senator McCain should have scheduled a stop in Arizona yesterday?
Of course that McCain is going to win AZ, but it will be quite embarassing that it will not be a margin as near as Obama's margin in Illinois :-)
McCains campaign has become one huge graphic train wreck that the nation can't look away from.
As a zonie. . . McCain has been on the wain in popoularity, we have a dem gov, and growing dem pop . . . similary to our neighbors CA, NV, CO, & NM . . . McCain will have a tough time winning it if he continues to sink.
I think the last two polls will stun the Democrats into spending a little bit more in the Arizona...if only to help the down-ticket races. But this certainly will give local organizers for Obama heart, and will send the mcCain campaign back on its heels.
Once again they are confronted with a major strategic quandery. Do they withdraw some money and support from another State to protect AZ. Or do they rely on a local party that is in disarray to bring them through?
Neither side had given much thought to GOTV and this could make the state vulnerable. One protects the walls, but doesn't expect a mass attack from inside the sanctuary. Not that Arizona is Mordor or anything!
hmmm ... could this be really true? the Goldwater family has endorsed Obama ... is this having repercussions? or was the endorsement a snapshot of Arizonans?
I would like to think that this is true and that Arizona is within reach ... we need more state polls from Arizona (from different pollsters) in order to determine if there is a trend and if the margin is that small ...
Forget Arizona - think about Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi, where McCain is weakening and (key point) there are very strong challenges to incumbent senators. Obama could help those folks over the line. A senator will, in the long run, be worth far more than ten more electoral votes in a landslide.
Obama only down by 2 in AZ? First things first, win the election, but I would love to see Obama take AZ and steal his opponent's flag. But first, eyes on the prize.
"Election day is near. Go to the polls and vote. Vote for the Kennedy of your choice but vote! (THE FIRST FAMILY, 1961).
It sure would be sweet to see two of the four "A" states go yellow this week and blue in November. Winning Arizona or Alaska would make election night that much sweeter.
On the serious side, the Democrats should own the desert Southwest going forward, excluding Utah.
Wow! AZ just went pink!!! - 50-state strategy paying off (OK it was more of a 35-state strategy)
Woo hoo -- called it -- pink AZ!
This is looking more and more like a total blow-out. While AZ has been trending more D in recent years (Clinton won it in 1996), McSlime as the favorite son should have put it out of play.
Time for the Obama folks to take some ad money from CO and send it to AZ. Make the geezer defend his turf.
Wow! One has to wonder if one problem the GOP will be facing in states like AZ and FL is that their base is *literally* dying off. The Sun Belt states that have been pictures of blue-rinse seniors, driving Buicks and Cadillacs, voting Goldwater/Nixon/etc. are changing. There's the Hispanic growth, and the younger whites are more worried about their jobs going to India than they are about income streams from their investments.
The only healthy core of the GOP I can think of are evangelicals, who have large families. But even here there's a conundrum: to excel in the world at large, we have to teach science and improve education Yet the more teens and young adults learn, the more likely they are to acquire liberal attitudes. It seems as if the GOP will have to do a complete rip-out and replace of ideology in the long term.
Our family attended an Obama rally in Phoenix early this year, and the turnout was huge and electric -- much larger than either Hillary's or Bill's around the same time. I've always been surprised that recent polls didn't show a closer race in AZ, even given McCain's favorite son standing. NYT also reports today that two congressional seats are newly competitive for Dems; if they win AZ's Congressional delegation would be majority Dem for the first time since 1966. An AZ win for Obama would be SO HUGE!
The republicans have there best ground work in Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. Thats because they never thought places like Virginia, North Carolina, and GA could actually be in play.
If Az is close it probably close because of the Hispanic vote. Plus so much attention of Obama in California. Perhaps television ads from Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado that are finding a way into Arizona.
5 point spread in John's favor from Rasmussen on this Monday morning.
Not good for John.
Who would have imagined to wake up 1 week prior to the election and look at Pollster's electoral map and see what it is showing? The most striking thing is to see the amount of "red" states that have gone blue, yellow or pink while the "blue" states (from 2004) remain ...
Will Arizona go blue? Does it matter? All states (and all the votes) matter, but I think that the Obama campaign should maintain the course and keep on with the strategy that so far has been working ... this just proves the most important point in the campaign :
GO VOTE !!!! EVERY VOTE COUNTS !!!!
Hey Boom (not that you would be here)---
Valid test!
Does this mean AZ goes yellow?
Posted on October 26, 2008 3:43 PM