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AZ: McCain 46, Obama 44 (Cronkite/Eight-10/23-26)

Topics: PHome

Arizona State University Cronkite School of Journalism /
Eight/KAET
10/23-26/08; 1,019 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Arizona
McCain 46, Obama 44

 

Comments
Andareed:

When do we get to paint Arizona yellow?

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IdahoMike:

Yellow!! Yellow!! Yellow!!

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coffeemana:

"When do we get to paint Arizona yellow?"
Let's!

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The_Huntsman:

Wow, looks like the AZ slippage is real after all...

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Too soon to call it a toss-up. Wait for at least one more poll before getting too excited.

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Basil:

YELLOW!

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coffeemana:

6 of last 10 AZ polls show McShame at less than 50%...in home state that is quite telling...

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Can you imagine a day before the election and McCain has to campaign in his home state.

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BOOMFAIL:

@C.S.Strowbridge

Isn't this like the 4th poll in the last few days showing McSame with only low single digits??

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jasonAZ:


McCain Surge

Yellow! Yellow! Yellow!

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thorfinn:

Keep in mind, it is REGISTERED VOTERS. Since dems don't turnout in as great of numbers as rep supporters, McCain's lead is likely greater than that.

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Bonowski:

I don't buy these numbers (even though I'd love Obama to win AZ). AZ won't be a landslide for McCain, but he'll still win comfortably by 5 - 9 points, I think. But then again, who knows. haha

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coffeemana:

Wife's and my family votes around US:

AZ: Obama 2, McCain 0
FL: Obama 3, McCain 3
CA Obama 16 McCain 2
NY Obama 4 McCain 0
MA Obama 4 McCain 2

A few republicans, mainly in FL...

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danzelsimage:

Here's some news from Zogby: Dr. James Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute, said that "A combination of factors point not only to a huge Obama victory among Arab American voters-but a dramatic surge in the percentage of Arab Americans identifying as democrats." Noting that Arab Americans in Michigan represent about 5% of that state's electorate, while in Virginia and Ohio they comprise almost 2% of the vote, he continued "this can have an impact not only in the presidential election but in down ticket contests as well."
Who is James Zogby? He is a senior analyst with the polling firm Zogby International, founded and managed by his brother John Zogby, and is a lecturer and scholar on Middle East issues. Wow, you learn something new everyday.

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danzelsimage:

Quote from Palin:

"And Alaska"we"re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it"s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.It"s to maximize benefits for Alaskans, not an individual company, not some multinational somewhere, but for Alaskans."

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/27/palin-shares-wealth/

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tjampel:

This from the pollster:

"he statewide poll also found that a majority (62 percent) of all registered voters believes that Obama will win the presidency next Tuesday, while 20 percent think McCain will win. Thirty-eight percent of the Republicans in the state and 34 percent of those supporting McCain believe the Illinois senator will win. The poll also found that, by a two-to-one margin (46 percent to 22 percent), voters believe that McCain is running a more negative campaign than Obama."

Does this look like a voting populace imbued with deep enthusiasm for their candidate, with 34% of McCain's own supporters thinking he'll lose? Seems to me that many McCain supporters having mentally and perhaps emotionally thrown in the towel this cycle. If so fewer will vote. Additionally independents are the ones who mostly seethe over negative ads. That such a high % of people in AZ see McCain as the one going negative in this election doesn't bode well for his final numbers with independents.

I think it's too late for Obama's campaign to mount any concerted effort to close the approx 3-5 point gap, based on the previous 4 polls and, of course it's really quite unnecessary when states like AZ start showing some blue in their seams (since it means that other bluer battleground states are going to fall massively)... But...from an enjoyment standpoint AZ will be a fun state to watch for a while (barring a wholesale calamity for Obama in the next 7 days)

One unlikely but possible scenario would be some usually reliable republican voters staying home and expecting that it won't make a difference because......how can McCain lose here, whilst Dems come out with ferocity and at record numbers. Stranger things have happened in politics; I'll be watching.

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Gary Kilbride:

Hey, let's make it another one. I'm more than willing to play McCain to win Arizona if the boobs drive the price down. That's a pickup.

I remember similar in 2006, late apparent tightening in the Arizona senate race that had progressive sites touting it, and Chris Matthews picking Pederson as his upset special. Many polls had it within 5 or 6. Meanwhile, the final outcome was Kyl by 10.

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hou04:

Zogby UNCHANGED

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RaleighNC:

As Biden said, "Is this a joke?" Please. This is ridiculous and transparent attempt to depress and suppress Republican voters by using bogus polls to create a sense of "why bother".

NOT.GONNA.WORK.

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bmrKY:

Yeah, Raleigh, it's just one big left wing conspiracy in order to suppress the vote with these poll numbers that are showing basically the same thing in individual state polling. Thats why the dems are sending around flyers in Virginia telling the republicans that election day is really on November the 5th.

Oh, wait, no, it's the republicans in Virginia who are doing that to the democrats. Suppressing the vote with flyers. That sure sounds patriotic and pro-American/pro-democracy to me.

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Re Sarah Palin

She is the only real socialist(ish) candidate in this race. As for AZ, I thing that the numbers are a little off, but if the Obama camp sent some real strong people in there he could have a chance. MSNBC has Texas in the Yellow tank, so that could mean that anywhere is a possibility.

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jasonAZ:

I personally have been to the Obama & dem offices in the phx metro area . . . they are both over flowing with volunteers . . . there is certainly a lot more Obama bumber stickers and the like here than McCain -- if that means anything

Of course, there are a lot of foreclosure signs in my neighborhood, which are as good as obama yard signs . . .

growing latino community and a lot of cross mixing from CA, as well as other areas.

counter to some opinions expressed, the conservative base is shrinking fast --> 1/3 rep, 1/3 dem, 1/3 ind

if ind trend toward obama, McCain is in real trouble.

McCain is not the favorite son like many other candidates, he is a carpetbagger from the military, and NOT from the Goldwater stock, who actually lived and breathed Az

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NorthernObserver:

If AZ is turned yellow, shouldn't FL get turned light blue?

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I have been observing Pollster.com and reading posts for months now. Time for me to weigh in, with 6 days to go. I do believe the make or break State for everything to collapse heavily on McCain is INDIANA. If exit polls and early hard data show Indiana very close or a lead for Obama, all flood gates will open. And the potential for over 400 EVs is there.

Here is what I believe are the thresholds and the “dam breaking” potential for Obama come next Tuesday. Based on what I see from early voting, ground-game operations, public and private polling, and consensus among pundits (from FOX to CNN to MSNBC).

286 EV (90% chance)
1st Water Mark (the dam is cracking)
KERRY STATES + IA + VA + NM + CO

338 EV (75% chance)
2nd Water Mark (the dam has huge cracks)
1st WM + FL, OH, NV

375 EV (60% chance)
3rd Water Mark (the dam has broken!)
2nd WM + IN, MO, NC

393 EV (45% chance)
4th Water Mark (the city has flooded!)
3rd WM + ND, GA

411 EV (30% chance)
5th Water Mark (the county has flooded!)
4th WM + MT + AZ + WV

420 EV (15% chance)
6th Water Mark (holy sh*t)
5th WM + MS + SD

The third water mark minus 1 of those pickups is the MOST LIKELY scenario.

PREDICTION: OBAMA 349-375 EVs

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Glasbak:

@danzelsimage:
Quote from Palin:

"And Alaska"we"re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it"s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs.It"s to maximize benefits for Alaskans, not an individual company, not some multinational somewhere, but for Alaskans."

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/27/palin-shares-wealth/

Now this is TRUE Marxism in action for you. It's a pity it's too late for the Alaskans to secede and join the USSR as the Alaskan Soviet Socialist Republic!!!

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slegend:

onfire74:

Your analysis is dead accurate, and we all understand why McCain and Palin should do nothing but go door to door in PA to try and turn a Kerry state to the red category.

I think the Republicans are making a mistake not defending Ohio with a better ground game. Obama has huge support in the "younger" suburb population of Columbus with the huge Ohio State grads sticking around the state capital. That support, with Toledo-Akron-Cleveland-Youngstown base, will overcome the huge McCain red Cincinnati-Dayton area.

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RaleighNC:

@bmrKY

I wasn't suggesting it was a vast left wing conspiracy. I don't think The Left is smart enough to pull off a conspiracy of any type to be perfectly honest. I do believe this poll of REGISTERED voters is bogus, especially since the name "Cronkite" is attached to it.

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RS:

Shorter RaleighNC: It's the librul media!

Yeah, right. Just another another element of the right-wing "Obama stole the election" paranoia (despite OH, GA, VA...)

FWIW, I doubt Obama will win AZ. But it ain't lookin' good. If RVs are this close, and the Democratic enthusiasm in AZ is as much as jasonAZ makes it out to be... who knows what the ActualVs will do/are doing?

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IMind:

@RaleighNC:
It'd be one thing if this was the only poll that showed McCain under 50% in his home state, but this is what... the third or forth? I'm not saying Obama is going to win AZ in any scenario except a giant landslide... but you have to admit that this speaks volumes about the quality of McCain's campaign.

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PHX Enfermero:

ASU's Cronkite School of Journalism did the polling -- hence the name. They have a beautiful new building in Downtown PHX on a busy street, full of cars with I'd say 5 times more Obama stickers than McCain stickers. And you see ratios like that all over Arizona.

AZ Democrats have been wondering how long we'd be ignored by the media, with our ten EVs, while NV and NM, with 5 each, are polled daily. We'll be yellow on this map by Monday. McCain will likely win his home state, but I and hundreds of others are phone-banking this weekend nonetheless.

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D-503:

Oh come on, is this really fair? Do we really have to chase the old codger back to his home state to feel better about ourselves? It's already humiliating enough as it is...

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JeffinAZ:

An article on the Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dawn-teo/polls-pile-up-in-mccains_b_138788.html cites a Market Intelligence/Zimmerman Assoc. poll that shows Obama within 2 (McCain: 44 and Obama: 42), and a Myers Grove/Project New West poll that shows Obama within 4 (McCain: 48; Obama: 44). A reference is made to an internal Republican poll that also shows Obama within 3. Arizona really is yellow! And, more surprising, in Maricopa County (where the Phoenix metro area is), McCain is only leading by 3 points.

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