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AZ: McCain 48, Obama 47 (DailyKos-10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/28-30/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Arizona
McCain 48, Obama 47

 

Comments
Lord Salisbury:

Gallup restrictive likely voters: Obama 51-43
Gallup expanded likely voters: Obama 52-43

Game. Set. Match.

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McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

Sure, Rick Davis will come out and say that their internal polls show +20 for McPalinocchio
Whatever!

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NorthernObserver:

My oh my oh my!

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Atomique:

Come on, Arizona! If there's any state that can give Obama a definite mandate and make it crystal clear America doesn't want four more years of the same, it's you.

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DTM:

Obviously Obama winning Arizona would be more about governance and 2012 than winning this year, but those are probably sufficient reasons for him to at least do what he is doing (throwing some of his most effective ads into the state).

As an aside, if there is anywhere a lot of early calls in eastern states might matter in the ultimate result, it could be in Arizona. But although this may not be in my direct political interests, I really hope people in Arizona vote as enthusiastically as anywhere else, no matter who they support and no matter what appears to be going on.

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Tzal:

I'd like to see more Hispanics in Kos's sample. Hispanics are only 19% of the sample, but are something like 30% of the population in AZ. They break 68 Obama 24 McCain in this poll.

Higher than expected Hispanic turnout will be what flips this AZ for Obama.

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NorthernObserver:

When can AZ be turned yellow? :-)

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tar_heel:

AZ--ROFLMAO

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Disco Stu:

Interesting that McCain is now pushing Robocalls into AZ...even though the Newsweek article indicates that they really don't help at all. (Maybe even backfire). Meanwhile, Obama's going up with POSITIVE ads there. Clearly there's a real chance Obama could snag AZ. Wouldn't it be something if Obama swung through Phoenix before/after his NV visit?

Another though too...going up with ads THIS late is clearly because they see it as very close, rather than a strategy to get McCain to spend more $$ there.

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blakec:

The AZ push isn't about winning the state. It's about all the free media Obama will get this weekend. Instead of the story line being the McCain surge, it will be about Obama expanding the base and going for 400 EV's. Considering the cost of running ads and the benefit of changing the story line for the final weekend, seems like a good investment.

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DCDemocrat:

Numbers like we're getting today suggest that if McCain "wins" on Tuesday, it will have resulted from fraud.

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hirshnoc:

I echo the sentiments of 'ROFLMAO' CNN tonite, anyone? AZ goin' yellow soon. :)

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joethedummer:

this would be a huge way for obama to stick it to mcsame for his discracefull attack campaign!

mcsame will hide in a hole the rest of his life he he loses arizona!

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djneedle83:

The Obama electoral electoral ceiling is 406 electoral votes.

The McCain ceiling is 252 electoral votes.

This baby is over!!

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Connor:

I think the McCain/Napolitano poll is more interesting.

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thomas/germany:

What is with LOUISIANA ??

31.7 % of the LA-population are black persons

Clinton won LA in 1992, 1996

Carter won LA in 1976

Why not Obama with so many black persons living in this state?

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TeaLeaf96:

I agree with the analysis over at 538. Arizona may be a closely contested state, but Obama would be ill-advised to spend to much time or money here in the closing days. McCain and the RNC are throwing out all the stops with media buys in OH, FL, and PA. There's a time when it's important to expand the map. That time is not now. There are effectively 3-days left in this campaign and he needs to stick with the key head-to-head battles. If he does that, he can perhaps think about taking Arizona during is 2012 re-election bid.

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Hoosier:

Just saw that McCain has rearranged his schedule to allow him to campaign in Arizona on Monday. At the same time, Obama has the cash to do a major positive ad buy in AZ.

The second part of the Kos poll was regarding a potential (and probable) 2010 Senate race between McCain and Governor janet Napolitano, who will be term-limited out in 2010. The results: Napolitano 53, McCain 45. While its 2 years away, looks like the people of Arizona are reacting negatively to the disgraceful slime campaign run by their senator.

Looks like McCain 2.0 has turned out to be "McCain Vista"

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NorthernObserver:

I hope blakec is right, that Obama is just putting pressure on McCain, and that we're not looking at a major new direction in the Obama campaign. If it comes down to it, I think it's more important for Obama to secure states like PA, VA, FL etc. They're where the electoral votes are.

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RossPhx:

Regarding Tzal's comment that the Hispanic voter population of Arizona is underrepresented in this poll (19% of sample) --

Yes, it's true that 29% of Arizona's population is Hispanic. However, it's also true that 12% of Arizona's population is foreign born. Translation: 10% of the population are Hispanics ineligible to vote.

---

One reason the race is close in Arizona is that he is disliked for his halfway reasonable positions (at times) on the immigration problem. Don't blame all his problems on Arizonans recognizing the virtues of Obama; he loses a lot of votes among the bigot population, also.

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brooklyn137:

The problem may be that Obama still has money and all the ad time in VA PA and OH has been bought. If so, then why not AZ?

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hirshnoc:

Clinton won many of the states he won because Ross Perot took away many of the votes from George Bush. The more urban cities you have in a state, the better change of it going blue.... Louisiana has New Orleans which is pretty liberal and some others like Baton Rouge. Not sure if it will be an Obama state this time around.

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Liberally Biased:

FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a better chance (3%) of winning AZ than McCain has in PA, NH, and NM (2%)!

Of course, that hasn't discouraged McCain from going all-in in PA. So w/ Obama swimming in money, why not throw some into AZ? :-)

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RossPhx:

Regarding the indefinite pronouns in my earlier post -- the reason McCAIN is disliked, etc.

In 2004, 40% of Arizonans voted early. However, voters who request early ballots can turn them in at their polling place on Election Day, and I think those are included in the early-vote percentage. There are dozens of judges up for retention on the ballots in the two biggest counties (Maricopa - Phoenix, Pima - Tucson), and half a dozen or so ballot initiatives, so many voters like to check the boxes at home, then drop off the ballots on Tuesday.

Weather will probably not be a factor; Phoenix has been having highs in the 90s up until this week, but Tuesday's high is predicted at only 76.

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TeaLeaf96:

@thomas/germany

one of the great fictions of this campaign is that increased voter turnout amongst blacks is the only key factor driving Obama's support in southern states. In fact, if you look at his poll numbers in the deep south, his chances of winning a particular state are almost inversely proportional to that state's population share of blacks. The lone exception appears to be Georgia, which has a very politically active black population in and around Atlanta (along with some progressive enclaves in the north). North Carolina has an emergent creative class, Florida has born the brunt of the housing crisis, and northern Virginia is fast becoming the mid-south node of the dreaded eastern elite (a crowd that Obama is doing quite well with). Yes, increased black turnout helps tip the vote in Obama's favor, but these other factors are just as important.

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gryff_the_canadian:

One other comment about the Daily Kos poll in addition to the thoughts on Hispanics ... its sample has 65+ at 19% - according to the US Census data(2006) the figure is 12.8%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/04000.html

gryff :)

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bclintonk:

This is beautiful. Pour it on, baby! I'm not worried about the Obama campaign losing focus on the big battleground states; these guys are at the top of their game, and rolling out the best presidential campaign I've ever seen in my lifetime. But if there's some spare cash lying around, why not buy some ads in AZ and throw a real scare into McCain?

My prediction: McCain retires after serving out his current Senate term, rather than face a losing showdown against Napolitano.

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striatic:

"If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53"

That's a shocking figure.

I wonder if other pollsters are going to swing in and try to verify that, because it is tremendous news fodder.

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JMOfl:

Being foreign-born does not preclude you from voting. I am an immigrant and can vote, so I would like some clarification from RossPhx.

Do you mean that they are not naturalized citizens?

These numbers are very interesting - I gotta get over to Kos!

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wjbill49:

The Republican party in AZ did NOT endorse McCain during the primaries ..... the do not like him for various reasons. Similar to him taking on Sarah because he wanted the politics of James Dobson (=money he can get from some of his mindless drones). The hispanic population is very significant here and are citizens not illegals.

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RossPhx:

JMOFl:

Yes, being an immigrant does not preclude you from voting. Probably 3% of residents in most states are immigrants who have become citizens. In Arizona, nearly 13% of residents are immigrants. I don't think there is anyone on either side of the immigration debate who disputes that 10% of the state's population is immigrant non-citizen.

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RossPhx:

In response to Gryff the Canadian:

Yes, only 12.8% of Arizonans are 65 and older. However, 26.4% of Arizonans are under age 18. None of them are eligible to vote, while most of the 65+ are eligible. Do the math and you will figure out that 17% of Arizonans over 18 are also over 65. Discount those who are immigrant non-citizens -- most of these are under 65 -- and the 19% sample finding is what we should expect.

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RossPhx:

In response to Gryff the Canadian:

Yes, only 12.8% of Arizonans are 65 and older. However, 26.4% of Arizonans are under age 18. None of them are eligible to vote, while most of the 65+ are eligible. Do the math and you will figure out that 17% of Arizonans over 18 are also over 65. Discount those who are immigrant non-citizens -- most of these are under 65 -- and the 19% sample finding is what we should expect.

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RossPhx:

The Arizona Republic (Phoenix) website reports Friday:

Sites around the Valley are crammed with voters waiting hours to cast ballots on the final day of early voting. Polling stations in Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe saw voters waiting as long as six hours in lines that snaked around buildings. Many voters outside the Maricopa County Elections Department near the U.S. 60 and Mesa Drive in Mesa lounged on plastic patio furniture and camping chairs as they waited in a line stretching an estimated 500 feet around 11 a.m.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

If AAs turnout in large numbers in LA in addition to Hispanics, Obama can certainly make a run at the state. I think he's closer than 9 points down.

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