October 27, 2008
AZ: McCain 49, Obama 41 (NAU-10/18-27)
Northern Arizona University /
University of Washington
10/18-27/08 - 600 RV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Arizona
McCain 49, Obama 41
By Eric Dienstfrey on October 27, 2008 8:39 PM | Permalink
Comments
Still hoping......a bit disappointing, but this is just about running up the score at this point, have to keep in mind that a month ago I would have been thrilled just to win. We don't have to have 400 evs.
9 day poll.. wow. Clearly some movement for Obama in the past few days. But let's get real. AZ isn't going to turn blue. But it is fun to see some close polls.
I don't think we will complete the blue shift of the southwest until 2012.
If McCain were from Oklahoma, Arizona would be blue today.
10/18?? this is old . . . newer activity is showing move to Obama . . .
AZ isn't turning blue but I'm sure McCain was hoping to break 50 back home.
Keep working at it AZ !!! One more week to go ...
Go out and VOTE!!! Every vote counts and is CRITICAL!!!
AZ isn't going to go for Obama. But a single digit lead for McCain's home state is still a pretty good sign for Obama.
They took 10 days to call 600 people....Wow!
They took 10 days to call 600 people....Wow!
They took 10 days to call 600 people and still could not find 50% of the state support for McCain....Wow!
So Obama is polling higher in VA and PA than McCain is in AZ?
That state was never in play. I don't know why some of the progressive sites were wasting time touting a couple of polls the last few days. I wanted to ridicule the thread starters on a few sites but I get in trouble when I do that. Better to shut up.
Ten days to call 600 people? Must have had only one person making calls.
I think that Obama should turn up the heat in Arizona.
In the Rasmussen survey there was a lot of "up" amongst Mexican American voters in Arizona, who are still "weakly supportive" of McCain. Leak word to McCain that if he stops the dirty ads using "fear words" then the pressure will be turned off in Arizona.
Otherwise it's hardball.
living in AZ & watching the trending . . . it is not as far fetched as some may think . . . local political thought : http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/freestory.cfm?id=9704
there is a lot of activity for geared toward NM from AZ Obama volunteers . . .
this is a lot closer than those on the outside might think . . . foreclosures are hitting us BAD . . . driving down ones' neighborhood with foreclosure signs are as good as Obama yard signs :-)
The demographics of AZ are similar to NM, and the only reason for Obama to put a little money into that state in this election cycle is to prepare for the future, when an AZ pub is NOT on the ticket. I think AZ, NM, CO & NV will become a Dem power base going forward, and as the population in those states explode, so will their EVs.
It is going to be pretty embarassing for McCain to win AZ by single digits and get clobbered by Obama in IL :-)
Anybody who thinks either candidate can steal each other's home state has no business being involved in this political process and should go back to their mom's basement and stay there!
sotonightthatimightsee:
"Anybody who thinks either candidate can steal each other's home state has no business being involved in this political process and should go back to their mom's basement and stay there!"
Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000 and Kerry lost NC in 2004 even though John Edwards was his running mate. So there is historical precedence.
Not bad. I don't think Obama can win AZ and it shouldn't be a top priority. But I was really hoping to hold AZ to less than 10%, and that seems to be the case. If McCain wins AZ by less than 10% while losing the general election, I'll chalk it as a win for AZ. Then AZ can become a 2012 swing state.
ND, MT, GA - Maybe Obama landslide states
WV, MS, TX, AZ, SD, 2 NE districts - McCain wins by less than 10%.
SC, TN, KY, AR, KS, AK - McCain just might win these by less than 10% as well.
They ALL will be swing states in 2012. :-D
People harping about Arizona never being up for grabs are missing the point. The point is we shouldn't even be having this conversation. McCain shouldn't be running under 50% in his home state a week before the election!
Sheesh.
Well this is no fun! Come on zonies; get with the program. :-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:54 PM