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Big10: US, IL, IN, IA, MI, MN, OH, PA, WI (10/19-22)

Topics: PHome

Big Ten Battleground Poll
10/19-22/08; 4.2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

National 1,014 LV, 3.1%
Obama 52, McCain 43

Illinois 572 LV
Obama 61%, McCain 32%

Indiana 586 LV
Obama 51%, McCain 42%

Iowa 586 LV
Obama 52%, McCain 39%

Michigan 562 LV
Obama 58%, McCain 36%

Minnesota 583 LV
Obama 57%, McCain 38%
Sen: Franken (D) 40, Coleman (R-i) 34, Barkley (I) 15

Ohio 564 LV
Obama 53%, McCain 41%

Pennsylvania 566 LV
Obama 52%, McCain 42%

Wisconsin 584 LV
Obama 53%, McCain 42%

 

Comments
ucla54:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm................

I'm all for obbaaammer, but some of these polls seem tooooo good to be true.

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The_Huntsman:

Whoa. Landslide coming.

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bpd1069:

OH OH MY MY GOD GOD ! !

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couseydee:

And McCain keeps spending and visiting Minnesota. I think his campaign is McNutz!

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ucla54:

Hey McBush is gonnna turn PA red...you just watch....it's all those redneck racists in West PA that he's after....he said it himself he grees with murtha...haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa


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MichaelJason:

WOW, just... WOW

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CheckRaise72:

I think these polls are too optimistic, but at least they will offset those crappy Zogby internent polls.

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OneAngryDwarf:

How about Franken finally taking it to Coleman a little bit. Alright just that much closer to 60. WooHoo!

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whitetower:

Er, internals please. These results seem to be a bit insane.

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WOW!!!!

Accurate??

Good good day. And a big Hello from the Great City of Las Vegas.

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Mister H:

Just a neutral question:

How reputable is this polling group?

I'm sure Boomshak will say they are biased no matter what.....But I'm just curious.

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chrisinnc:

as an obama supporter and someone who found their first round of september results implausible (even in IA, WI, PA) i don't trust this poll. these margins are totally off from what all other polls are saying... would love to be able to buy a +12 in OH or a +10 in IN but i don't.

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MileHigh:

Pure fantasy. I'd like to believe it, but I can't. I won't believe anything until McCain/Palin is a bad memory in my rear view mirror. VOTE ALREADY! I don't think Obama can win in CO, too many voters have been purged. I was able to vote yesterday. We need a landslide, anything else is unacceptable.

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nmetro:

When Big10/Battleground ran their polls in early September, all of these states were close, except for Illinois and Pennsylvania. The point spreads were in the single digital. Barack Obama was trailing in Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota. he was slightly ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.

These polls, if the used the same models as they did in September, are a major turn around. But, not unexpected. But, it could explain why John McCain has low single digit leads in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Amazing what robo-calls, negative ads, deceit and a poor reaction to an economic meltdown can do. While polls do not tell the who story, this definately does not look good for John McCain in the Big 10 states.

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BobbyS:

I live in Ohio and would love for these numbers to be correct but I really, really doubt it.

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BarackO'Clinton:

What these polls tell us is what every poll has been telling us: McCain is toast.

Did anyone catch Chris Matthews completely destorying Nancy Pfoutenwhatshername? It's unreal - and linked on Huffington Post.

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Chester:

The Quinnipiac internals have O winning Fl Jews by 77 - 20 %. So much for him not making inroads there,

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

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mago:

@Mister H

I dunno, that Franklin guy has something to do with a popular polling website.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@BarackO'Clinton

Yeah he beat the pfeathers out of Nancy "the robo-liar" Pfotenhauer. It was almost as awesome as when Cambell Brown (and then some others) were kicking Tucker Bounds around their studios a few weeks back.

I always wonder how you get into the professional liars game. Those two Nancy P. and Tucker are both just professional shills with no real talent, and obviously very few moral hang-ups. I wonder if I just had an ethics transplant, could I get a good paying job in D.C.?

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Yellow Dog Democrat:

[quote]Indiana 586 LV
Obama 51%, McCain 42% [/quote]

Wow, Indiana is turning blue?!?!?!?!?!?! All those are going to be swarming over the border from Illinois into Indiana on election day to get out the vote. Half of them have probably *moved* to Indiana so they can vote there. A Hoosier surprise on election day!

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hirshnoc:

Ummm also don't forget, McCain has a bunch of big rallys coming up in Iowa. IOWA!!!!!!! Good call on the McNutz remark.

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BrookLynda:

O +9 in Indiana??

C'mon...

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Louis:

Don't know the internals for these polls or if they have any track record. To the exent that Qunnipac nembers are similar they can't be ignored. With all known major polls the differnce is usually the assumptions(i.e. likely voters, Dems v. Rep, etc) therefore direction can be more valuable then the absolute numbers.
Last week was a slight negative in direction for Obama, this week seems to be moving postive. Overall at this point It would take an earthshattering event for McCain to win.

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Check party ID at
http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results.html

Ohio: Dem +13-14%
Indiana: Rep +~2%

Not sure how those numbers compare with others from these states.

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jim:

Great game for you all!!

Go to www.johnmccain.com and register. Within a day or two you'll get a phone call, I have had 2, one from a nice elderly lady called Jane, we chat for 1/2 hour, talk about John, isn't he a great guy, how nice Sara looks in her new threads.

At the end of the call she wishes me luck I promse to turn out for Macca and it ends. Result The McCain has wasted 1/2 hour of resources it doesn't have and Jane has had probably the only civil conversation she will have that day.

Just a thought!

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MasterFramer:

Perhaps a Powell bounce? *scratches head...

I know these are too good to be true... but maybe there is such a thing?

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sunnymi:


What is amazing about the Indiana Poll by Big Ten is the fact that there is no party ID or lean advantage for the Dems and yet Obama is ahead by almost 10 points.

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DCDemocrat:

A narrative takes over. The bandwagon starts to move. People don't like what they have, and they see a lot of people moving in one direction, and they get on, hoping that the bandwagon is right and wanting to be with the winner. Zogby says we have a 22 point lead in early voting. People are waiting three hours in line to cast their votes 2 weeks before the election.

There's something happening, and it's like when a glacier finally looses its moorings and starts to move down the mountain.

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CaptainPatent:

Something doesn't seem right - The Indiana poll has Barrack Obama up 9 points but their party lean is even to favoring republicans. I'm an Obama supporter and everything but I fail to believe that much of the party would defect to get this result.

I would absolutely love to believe this (especially Indiana) but something is amiss.

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couseydee:

The sample in these states are quite small. McCain will not win Minnesota- but I think Obama will win by more like 10 points than what this poll would suggest.

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sunnymi:


@heywoah, all these Big Ten polls released today have about the correct amount the same party ID advantage as the other polls are showing in those states.

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Trosen:

sunny.. I'd love to believe so, but when you take a close look at the crosstabs, the OH Party ID is way off. It shows something like a 12 or 13 point +D advantage. In reality it's like 4,5, or 6 at most. It would still show an Obama lead, just not by such a margin.

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MichaelJason:

I am Jewish, and while I live in Maryland, I have Moderate to Conservative relatives, older as well who live in FL and PA, and they are ALL voting Obama. We do not believe for a second that he'd waiver in support of Israel.

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Incumbent:

Pollster just painted Ohio light blue! I had to slap myself to stop giggling!

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jamesia:

Those Indiana numbers are incredible. Especially considering a +2% Republican sample...

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IWillWorkHarder:

From www.bigtenpoll.org: "The first Big Ten Battleground Poll was conducted Sept. 14-17, 2008 among 5,794 registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the 2008 Presidential election. The second poll was conducted Oct. 19-22, 2008 among 5,719 registered voters and those likely to register to vote."

I've seen LV polls and RV polls, but this is the first "LRV" (likely to register to vote) poll I've ever come across. I don't know how they decide who's likely to register to vote, but I would imagine it includes a lot of young folks being targeted by registration drives, etc. I really really hope these numbers are true, but this just seems like a weird way to build a sample.

Aren't registration deadlines behind us in most places anyway?

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Iowa City:

Minnesota dark blue!!

268 EV now strong for Obama.

Come on, New Hampshire, you can put him over the top!

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Ryguy:

yikes obama... stand down man. stop slappin mccain around like a rag doll... he is an old man for christ's sake!

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ctj:

Wasn't there a suffolk u poll from about a week ago that showed Obama up big in OH?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Nancy Pfotenhauer and Tucker Bounds are like the Iraqi spinmeister Comical Ali, the guy that would get on TV before the fall of Baghdad to proclaim that Iraq had won the mother of all battles. They'll come out and say something to the effect that these polls were conducted for the liberal media or that these states are significantly unimportant and unAmerican. They'll say that the pollsters aren't polling real Americans.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Someone actually check the party i.d. for ohio so that we can check with Big10 and Q polls. All i know is recently there was an Indiana poll with O+2 so it is possible. Plus Big10's last release was ridiculed because it showed a somewhat optimistic lead for Obama but looking back now those numbers were probably right.

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RaleighNC:

The only reasonable numbers are Illinois.

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efrick:

Love the numbers.....but doesn't the sample size seem just a wee teensy bit too small?

At any rate...hope they are right!

Regards,

E.

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ericsp23:

I wonder if McCain's strategy in PA is backfiring in OH. Is it possible that people in OH, who are used to being courted in presidential elections due to the state's toss up status, might be jelous of their neighbor getting so much attention?

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DTM:

I think the fact that these are RV polls helps explain part of what we are seeing. Again, as Nate Silver suggests, that makes them something like best-case scenario polls for Obama, specifically from a turnout perspective.

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efrick:

and upon further inspection...

The result for the independent senate candidate in Minnesota does just seem...well...wacked, particularly when put side by side with other polls on the MN senate race.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

The Q poll for Ohio today just has a 1 point difference and that sample size was almost 3 times the size of this one.

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axe2grind:

The Iowa numbers are very close to other polling done here. We haven't had a state poll for sometime, but these numbers fall in line with the last couple done here. McCain is in big trouble here since her pissed off the farmers telling them he would cut ethanol subisidies.
McPalin have three rallies here over the weekend. Palin will be in Sioux City in western Iowa (big Republican territory) and Des Moines on Saturday afternoon. Des Moines is a democratic stronghold. On Sunday McCain goes to Cedar Falls to the University of Northern Iowa. This makes no sense because UNI is known for producing teachers. McCain wants to let war vets teach and bypass going to college, because they don't need all those college level courses to learn to be a teacher. Oh yeah, it doesn't help McCain that he blew off the Iowa Caucuses in January and finished a distant 4th.
Iowa is like most states, you have to win in the population centers to win statewide. The population centers are only 10 counties. If a candidate wins those 10 counties by big margins, the rest of the state doesn't have enough population to catch up. Three of the counties are home to state universities which are strong Democrat, and two more of the counties have strong Union ties. Iowa got Obama started on this journey and we will be there in the end to help him win the battle.

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deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska gets nowhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

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zhimbo:

@efrick

What about the MN Senate Barkley results look 'wacked'? AT 15%, That's within 2 or 3 points of every other October poll.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

For Ohio the Q poll from today was just 1 point off from the Big10 Ohio poll and the Q poll had 2 1/2 more people surveyed.

Also, the election is nearing and i'm sure the campaigns have a bigger and bigger pressence on the ground right now. Obama is crushing McCain in that sense, especially in a lot of these states. The amount of volunteers coming into ohio from elsewhere is just going to increase as we get closer to 11/4.

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ruyen:

If anyone heard Democracy Now's show yesterday, you'll know that voting machines are already flipping Obama votes to McCain and the move to steal the election (like Ohio's hundreds of thousands of lost votes in 2004) is already in motion.

Point being: Don't let up, continue to donate/volunteer, and don't get content, even if Obama goes up 20pts in every single state please keep working toward victory.

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PJ_FFM:

If those numbers reflected the current situation properly, especially the number for Indiana and Ohio, I'd just LOVE to see this pollster do a poll in Mississippi... because even MS might look close with data like that... ;-)

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Babbit:

Looks like Palin's shopping spree is really hitting home!

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drdr:

"likely to register to vote"

Not sure about other big ten states, but MN and WI have election day voter registration. In MN there is a history of young voters showing up to register on election day and having a major influence on the election. Do you remember Gov. Jesse Ventura?

Is there any reason that all states should not have this same-day voter registration? It would eliminate most of the concerns about voter supression and registraion errors/fraud.

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UpstateProgressive:

Recent Ohio

BigTen Obama +12
CNN Obama +4
Q-piac Obama +14
Ras Obama -2
Suffolk Obama +9

That seems like a pretty strong pro-Obama consensus. Taking the average, it would be Obama +7.4 Since that's about where Obama would be in a national polling average, and since "as Ohio goes, so goes the nation," that seems like a reasonable place to peg the race.

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efrick:

@zhimbo:

I stand corrected. I had not been following this race very closely and made the "wacked" comment based on a Ras poll (I think) from a while back. However, after looking at the Pollster data for the race, I see that Mr. Barkley does indeed run consistently in this range.

Thank you for pointing this out...whenever I make comments based on my memory of data, it usually comes back to bite me in the buttocks.

On the upside....perhaps this does help give the other numbers in this poll more creedence....at least I hope so!

Regards,

E.

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DTM:

@drdr

Unfortunately, the answer to your question is that some people have vested interest in making it harder for people to vote. That isn't a justification, but it is an explanation of why same-day registration is not more common.

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In my blog yesterday, I wrote:

"There are polls in South Dakota and Kentucky which are interesting. Argus Leader has McCain with only a 7 points lead in South Dakota. The dissipitation of McCain's support in South Dakota backs Obama's narrow lead in the most recent North Dakota polls. A Kentucky poll done by Rasmussen shows McCain with only an 8 point lead. If Obama is this close in Kentucky, you would have to imagine that whatever is happening there that is helping his standing is leaking into Southern Ohio and Indiana, which both border Kentucky."

So I was expecting some stronger polls for Obama in Indiana and Ohio....but nowhere this close. I'm interested in seeing a Selzer poll in Indiana, because she also is predicting high youth turnout in Indiana.

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cinnamonape:

The OHIO Big Ten poll shows "Party Preference" not Registration. Thus it is a "psychological measure" of mood at the time. Registration figures may be biased toward mood years ago and thus not be reflective of how people vote.

Rep 26% (Strong 16.5% Lean 9%)
Dem 39% (Strong 25.7% Lean 12.7%)
Independents 28% (Lean Rep 14%/ Lean Dem 13%)
Other/DNS 6%

Thus one can almost exactly obtain the Obama/McCain results from the affiliation toward parties + Independent leaners.

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cinnamonape:

When one compares that to INDIANA party affiliation something seems very odd.

Rep 33% (Strong 22.8% Lean 9.8%)
Dem 31.3% (Strong 21.8% Lean 8.4%)
Independent (Lean Rep 13.5%/ Lean Dem 13.4%)
Other/DNS (8.6/2.7%)

Yet Obama leads there by 51% to 42% McCain. This is just a few points below the Ohio results.

The only thing I can think is that Indiana Independents and some Republican leaners are less likely to change their party preference while still supporting Obama.

Perhaps this is the result of a willingness to split tickets in Indiana...or perhaps the general Republican "brand" is more tainted in Ohio. Lugar, who is somewhat less ideological comes from Indiana, so perhaps he has alienated fewer Republicans in that State with the party. Or perhaps the economic issues are different in the adjoining states.

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rita4obama:

amazing numbers!!...especially Indiana...if this is true no wonder mccain's only 2 pts up in georgia...on to Kentucky!

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patswin_sb42:

test

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thoughtful:

I looked at each one F***; F***: F***;F***;

Yes this agrees with my 390EVs.

boom, i amwaiting for you to turn and you to undecided

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thoughtful:

I looked at each one F***; F***: F***;F***;

Yes this agrees with my 390EVs.

boom, i amwaiting for you to turn and you to undecided

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lhtk:

The number from Q and Big 10 are basically beyond words. But given that the PA numbers seem about what we'd expect, might that suggest that the others might not be at all far-fetched? And I read that McCain made a recent buy of some TV time in IN. Perhaps his own internal numbers show something close enough to these for genuine worry for the Repubs there?

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efrick:

@ Thoughtful:

Our beloved Boom is over in the most recent Gallup comment thread trumpeting a "McCain surge" and that "Obama is melting" (??????????).

I suspect he will be here before long to dazzle us with commentary.

E.

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Gary Kilbride:

For reference purposes, in the 2004 exit poll Indiana was 46%-32% Party ID in favor of Republicans, and 14-42 in terms of liberals and conservatives. The country is more Democratic in 2008 by wide margin compared to 2004, but not to the extent that Big 10 poll prefers.

Intrade has plummeted today in Indiana, based on that poll. I'm going to dive in again. The McCain price is in the mid 50s and might go lower. It's similar to West Virginia when the outlier PPP poll created a short lived bargain in West Virginia. I still have no idea why Obama monetary backers are so willing to plunge into the fringe states, based on one poll, instead of investing at higher rate in the advantage states. They might get away with it in a one-time sample but long term it's idiotic.

The recent state polls verify Obama's large national lead. I might be burned by taking McCain to win states like North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia, backed by large sum on Obama to win the presidency, but I've got to stick with my Excel model and long held estimate that the election will be fairly close. If Obama wins by 8+ then no doubt I'll "lose" North Carolina and perhaps Indiana. My model suggests Obama needs to win nationally by at least 5-6 points to yank North Carolina, and 8+ to pull Indiana.

Regardless, it's ludicrous for a poll to assert Obama's lead in Indiana is the same or slightly higher than his margin nationwide. That's what this Big 10 poll is indicating.

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couseydee:

It's nice to see Minnesota a dark shade of blue.

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BlueAmerica:

Indiana going towards Obama with a 10 point lead? I think that might be a fairy tail. Obama I'm sure will win and win some red states like Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia, but Indiana has me raising an eye brow. It is a good thing that Obama is sold in Kerry won states, so he can go totally on offense for the next week.

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