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Bradley Effect on SNL

Topics: Bradley/Wilder , SNL

We probably shouldn't be surprised that SNL would offer its take on the polling controversy everyone else wants to talk about. Here, "Jesse Jackson" offers his views:

 

Comments
Chicago:

Ohio, the new Florida? Or is the GOP going to suppress the Obama vote and diebold the McCain vote in every battle ground state? That is why all these "new" registered voters don't matter and the polls will be wrong. Young people wont show up they think registering or texting about voting is the same thing. It does not matter who votes it matters who counts the votes. The media and these web sites have already forgotten 2000. I think CNN is doing a series next week on all the states heading toward problems in Nov. But the problems will turn out only to affect Obama leaning precincts. Surprise.

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FlyOnTneWall:

It's a funny clip. But the Bradley controversy is also profoundly depressing.

This cycle, we've been watching what happens when polling data collide with deeply engrained beliefs, or when they indicate that the present may not be precisely like the past. And the results are dispiriting. There's really no evidence for a Bradley effect this cycle. Every reputable organization that has looked for such evidence has come up empty-handed. We know that the race of the interviewer doesn't seem to be having an impact. That live and automated polls are producing similar results. That voters are willing to express beliefs that might be regarded as prejudiced, even as they express their support for a minority candidate. And that none of the polls in the primary cycle showed clear evidence of such an effect (although the reverse-Bradley was very much on display).

But it doesn't matter. When the polls don't confirm the things we already believe, it turns out, we'll ignore them. Or we'll seize upon an outlier. Or turn from the present to historical precedent to argue that the polls must be wrong.

And this is a particularly frustrating issue, because it's awfully hard to knock down. How can you prove, scientifically, that voters aren't lying until you have the chance to match their responses to demonstrated behavior? It's a basic assault upon the integrity of opinion research - a claim that when people tell pollsters things other people don't want to hear, they're probably not telling the truth. And, given the swings and wide divergence in polls, no result in the eventual election will be capable of putting this canard to rest. There will inevitably be some subgroup that polled better than it voted, just as others will poll worse. But pundits will seize upon the deviations in one direction, ignoring the offsetting random deviations in the other direction, to make their point.

As I wrote, dispiriting.

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Schadenfreude:

White men in blackface haven't been funny since...well...ever.

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Gary Kilbride:

Agreed, white men in black face are about as clever as commercials with talking babies, or TV/movie segments when an object strikes a guy in the crotch. Whenever I see any one of those, it screams the writer(s) had no creative ammo and desperately applied filler.

The "Really?" and pie chart were amusing. The ridiculous rhymes were apropos of Jackson. Otherwise it flunked.

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PortlandRocks:

Hmmm I wonder why the Bradley effect didn't exist in the primaries?:) hmmmmmmm

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Potomac Bob:

Portland Rocks
Wasn't New Hampshire evidence of the Bradley Effect? My recollection is that most (except maybe Marist) had Obama way ahead the day before.

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Speaking of insults to African-Americans, who said:
"I do know that it’s true that if you wanted to reduce crime, you could — if that were your sole purpose, you could abort every black baby in this country, and your crime rate would go down."

The same man who's just been inducted into the Hypocrites Hall of Infamy.

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Chris1966:

Have American pollsters leant the lesson from the UK where it was predicted that Kinnock would win the election, but Major did instead?

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

there is no bradley effect and it didn't exist in the primaries where Obama often outperformed polls. The GOP likes to talk about the Bradley Effect so they can use it as an excuse if they steal the election through suppression and Diebold. We need massive election reform in this country. Paper ballots! Every vote should count! This is our country and our birth right!

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INDYPENDANT:

The Bradley affect had a huge impact during the primaries, as it cost Obama 10 straight primaries against Hillary.

I wonder if McCain will break down and cry right before New Hampshire, "hey it worked for Hillary..."

Mr. Burns effect > Bradley effect.

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